Monday, August 07, 2006

Primary Narrows

WTIC and the AP are reporting that the gap between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont has closed to 6%.

Link to Quinnipiac Poll here.

Lamont............51% (54%)
Lieberman.......45% (41%)
Undecided.........4% (5%)

Lieberman has still not broken 50%, and Lamont is still above it. But the trend seems to favor Lieberman. Undecideds may be breaking his way. 90% of respondants say their minds are made up.

Also, the gubernatorial primary shows Malloy gaining, although the move isn't as dramatic as Malloy himself predicted.

DeStefano........48% (48%)
Malloy.............41% (38%)
Undecided.......10%

Source

"Lieberman Cuts Into Lamont's Lead." Associated Press 7 August, 2006.

Quinnipiac Poll. 7 August, 2006.

58 comments:

Gabe said...

I don't buy this one any more than I bought the one that had Lamont up by 13 - there is no good way to poll a primary and there is no good way to poll a race where something like 20,000 people either newly registrated or changed their registration to D to vote in the primary.

This one will be decided on the ground.

Anonymous said...

Isn't there another primary going on tomorrow? Something about two mayors running for Governor?

I wonder if there are any poll results there.

Anonymous said...

Lieberman gaining on Lamont according to new poll. Lead just 6 points now!

no said...

I have a feeling that we might be pretty surprised on Wednesday when they announce that Lieberman has won. I predict that every unaffiliated and Republican voter who switched for the primary will vote for Joe. In addition, especially with what's happening in Israel right now, Connecticut's Jewish community, though largely silent right now, will turn out in droves to support Israel's biggest advocate in the Senate.

Genghis Conn said...

Haven't heard anything about gubernatorial. I have a feeling it wasn't polled.

Gabe said...

Also, the calling on this included the weekend...

Anonymous said...

Most of the members of the Jewish community that I've spoken with do not believe that Bush's elective war on Iraq has made Israel any safer.

They feel that Lieberman's support of Bush's elective war has actually made Israel less safe.

Anonymous said...

Lamont is feeling the Jesse/Al effect. Expect their support to knock Millionaire Ned out of the box.

Anonymous said...

Historically, Q-Polls tend to have wider margins than reality. This is mainly because they don't screen callers heavily, so you get a lot of people who, when asked if they will vote, say yes when in fact they will not. I think coming into tomorrow it would be fair to call both these races a dead heat. Gabe is right, everything will be decided on the ground.

CTRevolution said...

Although this contradicts the ChrisMC/Malloy poll I think these numbers are very accurate. DeStefano will have a much stronger ground game then Dannel and that will prove the difference. You can also see that DeStefano is gaining support among women who must not be impressed by Malloys negativity and not fooled by his lies.

A better candidate with a better field op, DeStefano by 11.

Anonymous said...

chris mc - reserve your tee time for Wednesday yet?

Sick of the Spin said...

Why does CTRevolution think that Destefano will have a better ground game?

Anonymous said...

Genghis,

Don't you mean DeStefano's lead is growing? Wasn't his lead just 3 points last week? Looks like momentum is back on John's side. Either that or the Malloy campaign is up to their devious ways again (the fake union endorsement, the push polling, etc.) Either they weren't at 3 points down, or they're losing ground. Which is it?

Anonymous said...

I think the big story behind these numbers is Question 5 of the poll. More Lamont supporters are voting for the candidate himself as opposed to the anti-Lieberman vote (August 3rd-65% anti-Lieberman; August 7th-54% anti-Lieberman).

disgruntled_republican said...

Anon 1004-

DeStefano was up 10 points a week ago...the number is in paranthesis after the current one.

Anonymous said...

Well, since a Democrat with the backing of 100% of the unions hasn't been able to topple a GOP or ACP governor since 1986, I wouldn't put too much faith in a disjointed labor effort sweeping JDS into the nomination. Not to mention, Olson's #1 priority seems to be getting folks to the top line for Joe, which will help Malloy.

From a GOP perspective, it's always fun seeing the union dirty-trick machine being aimed back at Dems....kind of poetic in a way.

Janet said...

Anon @ 10:04-

Malloy is gaining ground. He was down by 10 points last week, now he's down by 7. Looks like he has the momentum.

But yeah, I agree with the people who said that it's hard to poll a primary. You just have no idea who is going to show up, especially during a year like this.

Anonymous said...

DR,

I was quoting Dan himself:

"The reality is that this thing... it's on a course that isn't going to change. You go from 20 points to 10 points to 7 points to 5 points -- our internal numbers have it at 3 points--no way it's going to stop now."

BRubenstein said...

The U to D's are mostly Lamont votes...i personally called some and asked them...( 25 calls...18 for Ned...4 Joementum...3 .. undecided)

Remember too that the polling didnt include a " intensity" factor..The Lamont folks are much more committed to voting..

I still stand by my assessment...Lamont by around 10

disgruntled_republican said...

I must have missed that quote...Perhaps you should have said that in the first one since this is a post about the Q-poll...just sayin.

Anonymous said...

Janet,

So are you saying that his internal polls were wrong? If the Malloy camp doesn't put much value in polls, why did he issue a press release citing his own? Either you think polls are a good barometer for judging a race, or you don't. You can't pick and choose which ones are accurate.

Janet said...

Anon 10:17-

Uhhh... I am not Dan Malloy, nor do I write his press releases, so why are you asking me a question like that?

I was just stating that I personally think that polling during a primary is a lot different than polling during a general election.

justavoter said...

Poll or no poll if you live near or in Connecticut its time to help Ned lamont wins against Joe Lieberman.
We can beat Joe once and for all.
The polls don't vote people do.
Whats happening on the ground level is important.

If The Q Poll when to events to ask people who they are voting for without question Lamont would win hands down.

So if you really support Lamont get involved and helf the phone banks go door to door and most of all get out and Vote for Ned.

Anonymous said...

Very Bad time for Ned to lose momentum. Lieberman will win thanks to Jesse and Al.

justavoter said...

Poll or no poll if you live near or in Connecticut its time to help Ned Lamont win against Joe Lieberman.
We can beat Joe once and for all.
The polls don't vote people do.
Whats happening on the ground level is important.

If The Q Poll went to events to ask people who they are voting for without question Lamont would win hands down.

So if you really support Lamont get involved and help the phone banks go door to door and most of all get out and Vote for Ned.

Anonymous said...

Joe has run by far the most ineffective and spiritless campaign imaginable. Washington certainly has rendered him impotent as far as defending himself against an unknown. This race should not be close and Joe has only himself to blame.

Chris MC said...

Since somebody kind of asked, I'll say that the information I provided was and is sound.

All that the Q poll shows is that the share of broad public perception that this poll measures continues to move in Malloy's direction. Meanwhile, the public awareness of DeStefano didn't move, which simply measures the ineffectiveness of the Disaster for Connecticut campaign.

Finally, Malloy's ability to gain more ground is indicated by the fact that he still has good number of people who haven't yet heard enough about him. Once people get acquainted with Dan Malloy, they become supporters of Dan Malloy.

The poll is good news for Malloy and testifies to the effectiveness of his campaign.

And, as someone else pointed out, the focus of a lot of the establishment forces on getting people to vote for Lieberman appears to be having a positive effect, which is a good thing on the margin for Malloy.

Finally, there is an advantage to being on line 'A' to begin with. In a dead heat like this, that advantage goes to Malloy.

Dannel Malloy will win the Democratic Gubernatorial primary 52 - 48.

Well, off to get busy on that.

disgruntled_republican said...

BLuecoat -

The Ap article cites the Q-poll and the numbers shown are Q-poll numbers...where do you get the idea that anyone is "comparing an AP poll to a Q poll"?

bluecoat said...

DG: just checking to see who was watching; Chris MC is predictable and you're getting that way too..

Anonymous said...

Talk about spin ...

Malloy's ability to gain more ground is indicated by the fact that he still has good number of people who haven't yet heard enough about him.

It's the day before the primary, and it's good news that a lot of people still don't know Malloy??

BRubenstein said...

Bluecoat...Chris' predictions are just spin..based on no evidence oe facts...if he was really sure that his man DM would win wouldnt he have given DM some money? If your check CFIS you will see he hasnt given his projected wining candidate a dime...Nor has he taken up my request for a friendly wager.

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:14 - Hilarious!

bluecoat said...

BR: most everything about ChrisMC is spin. I found it interesting in the recent poll that Democrats who saw themselves as moderates/conservatives favored JDS over Malloy. I am still hoping to hear from JDS on how he will lower the Total Tax Burden since I do know he understands therising property tax issue discussed here in the NYT but I am yet to be convinced he is a smaller/better government type. I am yet to be convinced any CT politicain is a smaller/better govt. type

Anonymous said...

Chris,

You yourself claimed that you have seen a poll that showed that the "gubernatorial race is a dead heat." So how can you claim to be happy about a poll that shows him down 7 points? Was this other poll just bs? You brought it up several times. If it wasn't a make believe poll, then Malloy is heading in the wrong direction, no?

Paul Vance said...

The day before any election is like the day before a holiday for those who are political junkies. I will be pulling the lever tomorrow morning at 6am at Tinker School in Waterbury. (In case anyone cares, I will be voting for Senator Lieberman and Mayor Dan Malloy).

It seems like kind of a cheap shot, Bruce, to knock someone for not giving money to a candidate. Some of my best and most loyal supporters in past campaigns show their support with hard work and spreading the message.

I would be happy to bet you lunch that Dan Malloy eeks out a win tommorow-- but mind you, the lunch cannot be filet. (I have some student loans to pay! ;) )

mod.dem.like.jfk said...

Lieberman by .5%
Destefano by 5%

Paul Vance said...

Nice post Bluecoat, that article is very informative.

bluecoat said...

Chris MC and the Malloy camp will be getting together at their favorite plalce tommorrow night for their victory party.

Anonymous said...

Attention Authentic CT Republican/Disgruntled Republican/True Gentleman/et al...

Can we get some predicitions on the Masullo/McLean race??? Anything happening there? I live in the district, am republican, vote, and haven't received ANYTHING!

Talk about a stealth campaign(s)!

Derby Conservative said...

I think this whole rigamarole regarding tomorrow's Senate Primary is stupid. The Democrats in this state have clearly taken that left turn at Albequerque and are voicing their displeasure with the moderate leanings of the junior Senator from Connecticut by rallying for a Greenwich Millionaire who they think will represent them more progressively.

Regardless of the outcome of the primary, Joe will be returned to his seat in November. The reason for this is that he represents all people in Connecticut, not just the democrats. Therefore, he will have the support of moderate Dems and Republicans as well as the vast majority of the unaffiliated voters in this state. Joementum for 6 more years!

Conservative Democrat said...

J.Paul, I think that if the outcome of the Senate primary were to be based on Waterbury returns alone, Lieberman would win in a landslide. Being a Waterbury resident myself, Lieberman has my vote as well. I think it is going to be much tighter than what the polling has predicted. The margin of victory won't be much more than 1 or 2 points, in my opinion.

PS: I liked your letter to the editor re. Caizzo in the paper this weekend.

TrueBlueCT said...

Paul Vance--

Is it true that you will back Lieberman through November?

That is what someone told me, and I find it unconscionable.

Also, did you ever kiss and make-up with Murphy. Please tell me you're not quietly backing Nancy Johnson.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

I still go with a significant margin for Lamont...

But one thing that has made me think twice about it is the number of people I talked to this weekend who were having buyer's remorse about Ned himself. Also, they seemed to be looking prospectively at Israel, not retrospectively- and noting that Ned is in bed with non-friends of Israel like Waters, Jackson and Sharpton. There's a sentiment that a) Joe's been taught his lesson, b) If Joe's the problem, Ned is a poor answer, c) they'd better turn out for Joe, because he needs it.

This may be the source of a late tightening, but to echo Gabe, the polls are worthless. I wouldn't be surprised by a 5-15% win for Lamont. A Joe victory or Ned by 20 would shock me.

But if Ned loses this... what a kick in the pants, huh?

bluecoat said...

Mr. Vance: if you think the system of taxation we have in CT can be made better than as far as I am concerned the only guy from the Democrat side that can articulate the problem and throw around solutions for the diverse (and loathe to change) General Assembly to consider is JDS. Malloy is a Johhny-come-lately on this and he really has never demomnstrated to me that he understands the diverse challenges facing each of CT's municipalities. I also happen to think that having JDS lined up with Rell in the general election will force her to deal with CT's property tax challenges - the car tax was only the point at the tip of the iceberg. This is heady stuff and it's hard to get much more than a yawn out of people on it. But at least here in Fairfield, some people are now seeing the gap close in the propery tax rates with Bridgeport and raising the red flag - the issue gets a yawn but it is highly complex and needs to be dealt with sooner rather than later and JDS has been out in front for years on exposing the issue to his credit while Malloy has been getting state tax breaks to attract new buildings with businesses that ultimatley demand more services.

ct_husky said...

MLN and CTBlog have reports on some rumblings at the Senator's camp...
http://connecticutblog.blogspot.com/2006/08/what-is-joe-up-to-now.html

Either way, I think the GOTV turnout for Lamont will be crucial both today and tomorrow. Moveon.org has a phonebank-from-home thing going for anyone (like myself) who can't make it to a Lamont office to help out. Definitely check it out.
http://political.moveon.org/phone/volunteer/ct.html

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Anybody who says the election will be won on the ground is just reciting a truism, eh?

justavoter said...

Here some new polling info from Zogby.

In an interview on Air America Radio Saturday, National Pollster John Zogby predicts a 20 point win on Tuesday for Lamont!.

Anonymous said...

Here's the question:

Because he has led in the polls for nearly a month, if Lamont loses tomorrow, is it considered an upset? At that point do Lamont supporters pat themselves on the back for a hell of a race, or do they agonize for months over 'how we let this one slip away?'

I look forward to your answers, because it seems that Lamont and his backers have taken on the frontrunner feeling over the past few weeks.

BRubenstein said...

Paul Vance..you are on....for lunch...you want DM and I will take JDS

BRubenstein said...

Derby Conservative....remember our bet...

As the Republican town chair im just schocked that you arent backing your parties nominee...Gallo will be pissed..at least in public

Genghis Conn said...

Bruce,

Malloy is getting closer. I can taste the bacon of victory already.

Weicker Liker said...

Anonomous...

The turnout in the Scott MacLean / Miriam Masullo race will be dismal.

I will predict 3% will turnout.

Both of them have ran aweful campaigns.

I hear Masullo sent out a postcard bashing MacLean for not being a "real" Republican.

A friend of mine in Hartford got one.

BRubenstein said...

GC....im saving my pennies...dont order the bacon quite yet though...lol

Paul Vance said...

Ctfreeper- Thanks for the message--Caiazzo is a great guy.

Trueblue--- I am a Democrat, I am a Democrat, I am a Democrat. I back Democrats, I donate when I can afford it, I work for Democrats when asked. (Don't believe everything you hear, I heard recently that I was registering Republican.)

Chris Murphy and I didn't need to kiss and make up, when I left the race I endorsed his candidacy.

Bluecoat, I agree that tax reform is an issue that generally draws yawns (and is a big reason why I went to get a masters in Public Admin in 2005), the economics of government is important. I have had some long conversations with Dan Malloy and he 'gets it'. He is the man for the job as far as I am concerned.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Connecticut fell back in the economic race as we became increasingly reliant on the state income tax, while municipalities continued to rely on property tax. All this while the state continues to run deficits in pension accounts is a recipe for economic disaster--- I will be voting Malloy because I believe he is the person that will make the tough decisions that are needed over the next several years.

Anonymous said...

Paul, are you a Democrat?

Paul Vance said...

By the way, my wife heard the Lieberman "Diversity" ad on 93.7 on her way to work on Sunday and was impressed. (the ad about Lamont's membership in the country club)

Paul Vance said...

Um anon yea, I am a Democrat.

Anonymous said...

Wow, did you see Malloy on TV today, the guy looked really depressed and tired. This ones game over, DeStefano by 12. Victory tomorrow and then in November for DeStefano!!!