Sunday, August 13, 2006

Congressional Races Update

Now that the primaries are over, Connecticut's congressional races are starting to creak and groan back to life.

1st District (map)

Scott MacLean won the Republican primary, defeating Miriam Masullo by a wide margin. Incumbent John Larson, whose website is currently a lovely shade of blue-green (and nothing else), has yet to really get his campaign underway. Given the wide advantage Democrats enjoy in the district, he probably won't need to do anything until Halloween.

2nd District (map)

Joe Courtney (D) and Rob Simmons (R) continue to run hard and raise money. Robocalls from independent groups either defending or slamming Rob Simmons have been plaguing 2nd District households since spring, there was a anti-Courtney push poll a few weeks ago, and yesterday I got a glossy "legislative update" from Simmons, but otherwise very little seems to be happening here.

Expect the campaign to kick into high gear sooner rather than later. This is one of the most-watched races in the country (again). Simmons is doing his best to claim the center, which has been a successful strategy for him. His website shows him with Jodi Rell and John McCain, two Republicans who are very well-liked in these parts (remember that McCain won the presidential primary here in 2000). Simmons has also expressed support for Joe Lieberman's independent bid. Courtney seems to be focused on tying Simmons to the excesses of the Republican-led House. This was unsucessful in 2002 and 2004, but may work better this year.

3rd District (map)

Incumbent Rosa DeLauro faces Republican Joseph Vollano and Green Party candidate Daniel Sumrall. The Greens have had a ballot line in the 3rd District since 2002, and so didn't need to petition their way on this time.

However, in this heavily-Democratic district, the impact of both challengers to the popular DeLauro is expected to be slight. Vollano, like MacLean, doesn't seem to be getting much in the way of official Republican support.

4th District (map)

Rep. Chris Shays (R), Diane Farrell (D) and Richard Duffee (G) are facing off in the hotly-contested 4th District. Farrell has spent a lot of her time attacking Shays's position on Iraq, which was basically her strategy in 2004, when she lost to Shays by a very narrow margin. She has also been doing what all three Democratic challengers are doing this year: trying to tie a moderate Republican to the conservative leadership in Washington.

Shays was one of the first Republicans to openly support Joe Lieberman's bid for re-election, and is working hard to retain his image as a maverick. This, too, is a race which will shortly become a lot more visible.

5th District (map)

This is going to be the nastiest race of the year--barring possibly Lieberman-Lamont II. Nancy Johnson (R)) is facing Chris Murphy (D) in a tight race that has already taken to the airwaves.

Johnson has released a series of television ads attacking Murphy. She has also released an ad in which a 9/11 widow talks about Johnson's comforting words at the funeral. Both were powerful pieces, prompting a quick response from the Murphy campaign.

This race is going to be very tight, and both candidates seem well aware of it. The fact that Nancy Johnson was running attack ads in July shows just how seriously she is taking this race, which may be her most competitive since 1996. Certainly one to watch.

We'll be trying to focus on congressional races more as the campaign season really gets underway.

50 comments:

Anonymous said...

The time has come to send Nancy Johnson home and into retirement 24 years is way,way,way too long to be holding on to a Congressional Seat.

Chris Murphy is hard working Candidate who has proven himself in The State House and State Senate and deserves to go to Washington DC as our Congressman in the 5th CD.

Johnson is beholden to Big Oil Companies, The Insurance Companys and other interests that contribute to her campaign It is time to return to New Britain to enjoy retirement.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Scott MacLean won the Republican primary, defeating Miriam Masullo by a wide margin.

Probably a short lived victory.

Elections enforcement hasn't made a ruling regarding his address issue.

Registering to vote at a false address (which MacLean admits doing as a "mistake") is a felony and that may a bit too much to sweep under the rug.

It appears to me he intentionally registered at a non-existent address so as to not disclose that his actual address is a tax exempt church owned parsonage. Operating a campaign out of such a site is a clear violation of the church's tax exempt status (501C) with the IRS.

We've received confirmation that the IRS has assigned an investigator to that case.

Anonymous said...

Anon. 11:46 (or should I say, Murphy campaign staff) - Have you ever looked at Murphy's campaign finance reports for his elections to the state legislature? You are throwing stones from a big glass house Anon. Careful!

Genghis Conn said...

A1:41,

Could you elaborate?

Anonymous said...

Anon 141- Your remarks about being on Murphy's Campaign staff are inaccurate But this isnt the 1st time or I am sure the last I will be accused of being on someone's staff.Johnson needs to go she is too in bed with Big Oil, Insurance and Pharmacutical Companies and we need someone with a different experience and you must be a friend of Flaherty and Williams by your tone so I am not surprised of the comments or your pals with the Liberal Cranes Because they and their followers hate everybody.

Chris Murphy deserves a chance in Washington DC. Let that old relic Johnson retire to New Britain as i said 24 years is enough-time to go for Nancy.

As for your accusations about Murphy and his Campaign Finance Reports just a Republican dirty trick to scare people into voting for Nancy again-Not going to work this time.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bilko, since when do you post anonymously, anyway???

mccommas said...

Hey Authentic Connecticut Republican:

You're a liberal!

Anonymous said...

Anon. 2:35 said, "as i said 24 years is enough-time to go...."

Interesting point Anon 2:35. So I guess when Sen. Dodd ran for re-election in 2004 after 24 years in the Senate you were also saying that "24 years is enough." I thought not. Nancy will win again.

Anonymous said...

And now from Lite rock 5th District, a double play from Chris Murphy.....

"all we are saying is give Chris Murpohy a chance" and
"Imagine no Republicans"

Lite Rock 5th District. All style, no substance, all the time

Weicker Liker said...

ACR...

What makes you think MacLean's victory will be declared null and void?

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

What makes you think MacLean's victory will be declared null and void?

He's not a legally registered voter, thus not an elector.

Never mind that his so called "mistake" is a felony.

Anonymous said...

That is amazing that someone running for office would think they can get away with a fake address!! This guy should have learned from Schleshinger about how you can't keep a secret when you are a candidate!!

And on the Johnson and Murphy race it does seem like Johnson has gotten way aggressive and that seems weird, because she is also always saying how she is not worried about the election and she is definately going to win. My Republican father says he is not going to vote for either one of them because he can never vote for a Democtrat but he is sick of Johnson and she is not worth voting for because she is just like everyone else down there in Washington. I sort of agree, but if I lived in that district I guess I would vote for Murphy though, because it doesn't help to say you are sick of someone and she has to go unless you vote for the other guy!!

I also saw tv ads for Simmons already so I guess that will also be a big race? I haven't seen any ads in the Chris Shays campaign but I think that is because I live pretty far from there. Are there tv ads in that race too? Does anyone know?

CTswingvoter said...

Lets keep the facts straight. Lets all remember that Chris Murphy started his campaign a year and half ago by highlighting Move On's negative ads against Nancy. So it's pretty clear who really started this and it's not Nancy.

connpolitico said...

I recall a large sum of hard earned money was spent, early on in this campaign, trying to connect Nancy to Big oil and corruption. So CTswingvoter, I would have to agree with you that negative campaigning in the 5th was started a long time ago by Murphy.

coffeeaddict1234 said...

When did loking at a candidate's voting record and highlighting it to voters become negative? As a voter I like to know these things.

Anonymous said...

It's amazing that something like issues and voting records in some people's view is negative campaiging. Tell me what else are they suppose to discuss in an ad? I much prefer to know a candidate's voting record and issues than a plain attacks on ones personal life.

Goodman2231 said...

Looks to me like Murphy was hoping to have Move-on and Big Labor beat Nancy in November? Is his plan to have them do his work in Washington as well?

bluedevil19851 said...

Maybe, but we sure know how he will vote on taxes.

connpolitico said...

Bottom line is Ct.gov shows the roll call votes that proves Murphy raised taxes 27 times. These increases equal approximately 3 billion dollars. I don't know about you but my concern these days are the taxes I pay. These increases are affecting my family and I believe most of us.

annapolis2fun said...

It's funny, from what I can tell, Murphy's allies and staff are mostly from Washington and out of state. This clearly is a concern for me. The support he needs to be getting is ours. I have seen Nancy's staff out in my neighborhood passing out information. However, I have yet to see Chris's.

amazins860 said...

This follows suit since he wasn't living in the district until only recently. It's clear he only came to the 5th district for his own political motives. Aren't our needs supposed tos be th reason for a candidate to run?

JerryDucksworth4334 said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

While we are on the subject of Chris- Does anyone know why we are no longer able to post anything to Murphy's blog anymore? I tried to congratulate them on their new offices and had no way to post a message. Any ideas on why?

JerryDucksworth4334 said...

Hey Anon 2:35- Do a little research into Chris's FEC reports- I did. The reports don't lie and are fact based. Anon 1:41 thanks for bringing this to our attention.

janes1978 said...

Kudos to you coffeeadict! I heard Murphy's numbers are really falling since thess ads came out.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anon: 1:50- Is this true? Unbelievable. Thanks for letting me know.

carlosj1985 said...

Then you know what it is not a true blog.

LMcfly5 said...

Can Murphy stick with anything?

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if any of the Dem candiadtes, running for the 2nd, 4th, or 5th, have finally endorsed Lamont? I like to keep my family updated.

Anonymous said...

Hey LMcfly- someone one with little ideals and morals usually don't. Long live the blogging!

chevygirl1492 said...

Well, I don't know about the 2nd or 4th- but Murphy said he would endorse the democratic nominee. However, last I knew he was still on Lieberman's website under endorsements.

bluecoat said...

Bottom line is Ct.gov shows the roll call votes that proves Murphy raised taxes 27 times. These increases equal approximately 3 billion dollars. I don't know about you but my concern these days are the taxes I pay. These increases are affecting my family and I believe most of us. did not the Republican Governor of CT also sign these 27 tax increases into law - or did he/she veto all of them?

bluecoat said...

and Liebrman's website has no endorsements anymore - hasn't had any since he shut it down the day before the primary..

Anonymous said...

I also saw tv ads for Simmons already so I guess that will also be a big race? I haven't seen any ads in the Chris Shays campaign but I think that is because I live pretty far from there. Are there tv ads in that race too? Does anyone know?

10:26 AM, August 14, 2006

Anon 1026; haven't seen any Shays commericals yet or anything from Farrell, but I would imagine very soon we should. I saw the Simmons ad but like much of the ads that have come out way too early it isn't even from Simmons, the message says at the bottom Approved by US Chamber of Commerce. Just like ads I've seen from both sides ads being aired by 3rd parties, I think only campaigns should be allowed to release ads so at least it's the candidate who is behind every ad we see.

Johnson Backer said...

I tried posting this earlier, but apparently one of the more liberal screeners didn't want it to get posted:

Mr. Murphy, it was nice to see you on your film shoot today. You looked cute, all dolled up. Can't wait to see the commercials--the shot at the gas station was particularly fun to watch.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of blogs...where's Nancy Johnson's blog? Oh wait she probably doesn't even know what a blog is because she's 71 years old and completely out of it. The closest thing I could find to a Johnson blog is the "No More Nancy" blog which is great. Kudos to whoever created that.

Anonymous said...

So, I heard yesterday that Nancy Johnson was rambling at a meeting. Doing free association for 30 minutes. Can anyone confirm??? Is she is good health?

Anonymous said...

You know what they say the difference between Nancy Johnson now and 24 years ago is? 24 years ago it only took her 15 minutes to say nothing...now it takes her 30 minutes to say nothing.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:26am- I'm going to give you the benefit of that doubt taht you were a bit sleep deprived when you wrote this. I certainly know that you were not trying to alilenate seniors by suggesting they don't know about computers and blogs. By the way, I'm in my 70's know plenty about blogs and review them daily, as do many of my friends. I'll be sure to spread the word among my peers at my next book club.

Marv5920 said...

I'm also a proud member of the AARP, user of the internet, and VOTER. Anon 2:26am shame on you, as a Murphy supporter, to suggest such a ridiculous notion. If this is how Murphy and the rest of his young supporters feel, then he just lost a large backing of supporters and will be in for a rude awakening in November! I'll be sure to spread the word.

janes1978 said...

Nancy has been around a long time, and is politically savvy, we would be largely mistaken to think that they are not following the blogosphere. Plus I taught my grandparents last year how to blog and they love it. In fact, they tell me about new ones all the time since they have more time to explore the web.

GOPLOVER80 said...

Anon 6:43pm- Could ;that be because 24 years ago Nancy wasn't having to fix as many problems caused by politicians like Murphy, so it took her less time? I have to say a least she says one thing and means it- unlike Murphy who just tells us what we want to hear, if anything at all.

Anonymous said...

Well, now taht no one can actually blog or post messages to Murphy's site, I think it is safe to say that neither candidate has a blog. However, Murphy's shows more insult by calling his "campaign diary" a blog. Shame on him!

BigGulpzHuh said...

I've been following his so called blog- it's ridiculous! How own staff is caling him by nicknames on it and signing the end of the postings "Queen" of this and "Extraodinaire" of that- OH PLEASE!

brasscitypatriot said...

Anon 2:26am- I checked out the Nancy blog that you mentioned. Personally, it lacks class and taste.

CTswingvoter said...

Anon 4:33pm How ridiculous! Anyone who knows her knows Nancy Johnson is a ball of energy all her own. She also knows her issues and the needs of this state inside and out. This is just a Murphy whispering campaign tatic- The sleaziest of all campaign tricks.

Anonymous said...

Unbelieveable! Murphy's campaign can't beat her on the real issues so some supporters and the campaign are trying to use rumours. Very Low even for politics.

Anonymous said...

ATTENTION NANCY JOHNSON STAFFERS:

Seriously guys you're not fooling anyone on this board. Your phony outrage clearly identifies you as campaign staff rather than normal bloggers. Plus the fact that there are always about 10 pro-Nancy/anti-Murphy comments in a span of about 10 minutes is a dead giveaway. Cmon guys...you are underestimating the intelligence of us bloggers. Nice try...but no one's buying it.

Anonymous said...

Chris Murphy knocked on my door 8 years ago and told me it was time for a change. I listen, I was fooled, and I voted for him. He immediatly became part of the very problem he told me he was running to change. He is almost imposible to pin down on any issue of substance, if you can even get a response without driving your self crazy first. I made a big mistake 8 years ago. I most certainly won't make it again. And no, I am no Nacny Johnson fan either, but she certanly is by far, the better canidate of these two.

Anonymous said...

Hi bloggers...
Here I am, a true liberal democrat Murphy backer, and I am ashamed at the way anonymous is handling the given space on this blogspot. carefully stated intelligent opinions would be validated upon obvious research, however this is completely lacking in all statements given by anonymous. when I read what he/she has to say about Johnson, it is pure amateur attacking methodology. what a sad reality. It would be best, anonymous, if you claim your opinions with well thought out constructs of research. are you even of voting age??? the way you talk, it sounds as if bad politics has been holding your hand through the "attack the opponent" strategy, which usually has nothing to do with issues, rather the age-old age discrimination tactic. Now please, don't be insulting to the rest of us by claiming to be a staffer, when in fact, you are probably most likely simply a blogger. at least, that is what I hope you simply are.