Monday, August 28, 2006

Senate Poll

Political Wire reports on a WSJ/Zogby poll showing Lieberman leading Lamont by ten points: 49.4% to 39.4%.

Schlesinger is getting 2.1%: below the margin of error. Ouch.

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ya baby!!!!

Go Joe!!!

Anonymous said...

The methodology of these Zogby/WSJ polls is really screwy:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-elections06-meth.html

They choose particpants from people who have signed up with them or on other websites. And they hit 15% of the same people over and over.

This shows in the very odd results in this round of Zogby that seem like outliers all around: Kyl only +4 in AZ, Ensign only +3 in NV, and especially Webb +1 in VA.

Anonymous said...

I just want to take the time to thank Joe Lieberman for the creation of the Homeland Security Department,

Joe.really hasn't gotten enough credit for DHS, which was largely his brain child.

What I like most is the clever replacement of the term "domestic", with the much more Neo-conic "homeland". It's got to lend confidence to the Iraqis that Bush and Co. don't have Empire on the brain.

And what about the decision to wrap FEMA into DHS? Brilliant!

For all the Neo-cons bluster, Katrina showed one thing,--America isn't ready for a terrorist attack on one of our cities.

How soon can we fire this crop of losers? Not soon enough...

Anonymous said...

State Democrats need to demand the Lieberman step down! He is going to hurt the entire Democratic ticket because of his huge ego. Rell wins by bigger numbers and that means more wins in the Senate and State House for Republicans. We need to get our State Rep's and Senators on the record that they are supporting Ned Lamont or tell them not to count on your support!

Anonymous said...

The best thing for the Democrats would be for Lamont to drop out.

Anonymous said...

Anon. 10:13 - Step down from what? Do you want him to resign from the Senate? What power do the Democrats have over him, since he is not the nominee of the party? Why should the guy with the 10 pt. lead in the polls step down?

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:13- Good point... where does our friend Bill Finch stand on the race.. last we heard from him.. he was going to sit down with Joe and make a decision.. seems like Finch is trying to hide.

Hopewellian_Magi said...

Zogby must be polling the low information voters. Wonder how many of these polled will actually vote for Lieberman in November?

Anonymous said...

This election is looking more and more like the 2005 Waterbury Mayoral Election. Crazy challenger defeats generally well liked incubment in the primary. Republicans offer a completely unacceptable candidate. Defeated incumbent wins when the voters realize they're left with no real choice for decent leadership from either party. Lieberman is going to run away with this thing.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

You can challenge this individual poll, but by my count, this is the 4th poll in a row to go Joe's way. Zogby's been really off and really on- but you can't question that the polling is a good sign.

As Carville said yesterday, if the Dems can't win in this environment, you have to question the entire premise of the Democratic party. I think that axiom holds well for CT Dems this year, even if we need not reach that question nationally.

The Democratic party in this state is absolutely pathetic right now. That may change a bit, but I doubt it will.

justavoter said...

Lieberman in this poll has his ten points.

Big freakin deal.

It sounds like low information voters that were polled by the results.

Anonymous who like Lieberman thinks this poll is going to be a sign from God that Lieberman will win in November.

Don't jump up for joy its a poll.

The reality is way different as the preception of Lieberman being supported by the likes of Dick Cheney and other Neo-Cons within the Republican Party establishment will affect how people in Connecticut vote.

Lieberman will end up losing in November and there is not a poll being taken that can stop that.

Lieberman should do the right thing and drop out now for the good of the Party which he claims he is still a part of.

If Lieberman is truly a Demcoratic and not a Republican he will drop out and help support all the Democrats win in Connecticut from the Senate ,Congressional and Governors race.

The fact is Lieberman is nolonger a Democrats but aligning himself with the Neo-Cons of the Republican Agenda.

Thats the bottom Line

bluecoat said...

from the Stamford Advocate today:Lieberman: A Democrat by any other name?: to me he is a petitioning candidate and registered Democrat but what do I know? and

State to study train branches

bluecoat said...

Death and Taxes in Connecticut from Sunday's NYT - for liberals and pinkos only I guess.

bluecoat said...

BTW, I would expect lamont to be behind in the polls about the general aelection at this juncture. He has yet to reach out to the middle. And I am waiting Mr. Lamont - I don't get this universal healthcare thing quite yet since I beleive the only way to get costs under control is to put more control in the hands of the consumer becasue nationalizing the healthcare delivery system ain't gonna happen with all the money flying around..

Jim said...

Interesting.

What did the polls say three months before the primary?

Anonymous said...

Anon. 11:29 - I tried to contact Finch's office to find out where he stands on this issue and I have yet to get a reply. Why is he afraid to talk to us? We should contact Nancy Dinardo and tell her to make sure Finch supports the party's nominee - Ned Lamont - if he wants our vote. Since we have a 2 to 1 lead in the State Senate, Finch is expendable. The longer he waits the angrier I get!

bluecoat said...

Groton Air Terminal, Already 'A Morgue,' Losing Another Tenant thanks to the save the subbase effort?? or just CT's forward thinking strategy on all modes of travel working aginn??

Derby Conservative said...

Anon 1:26 said: ”Since we have a 2 to 1 lead in the State Senate, Finch is expendable. The longer he waits the angrier I get!”

I love this attitude. I wish more Democrats were of the same opinion. To say that you would vote against or abandon a Senator from your own party because he stands by his friends and sticks to his guns…oh wait, I guess that would be par for the course with you guys.

bluecoat said...

DC: you still strongly backing Schlesinger??

Anonymous said...

Hey, take it easy on Derby con. Fact is there are two Republicans in this race. Derby and others like him are just embracing the most valuable "R". You know the one that pretends to belong the Dem team, only to sell us out, regularly.

Can any "Dem" who likes Joe Loser at least have the decency to explain why Republicans are so attracted to the Loser-man?

Could it be that Joe provides extreme cover to the right-wing agenda?

Anonymous said...

Schlesinger and Lieberman are the only two Candidates in the US Senate Race worth supporting.

Lamont just wants to buy his way in and has no message other than Immediate withdrawal from Iraq that is a joke just like he and his joke of a Candidacy is.

Lamont should withdraw for the Good of The Democratic Party.

The True Gentleman said...

I thought a Lieberman victory was safe when he had a ten point lead in the primary and I was wrong. Lamont is doing a good job getting out his message, but it will all come down to the % of Dems who stick with Lieberman and the % of Reps who go with Lieberman over Schlesinger.

Anonymous said...

TG - I think your analysis, in general, is correct. My guess is that Schlesinger abandons the race, which, in turn, will help Joe Lieberman. I don't think Schlesinger will leave because of Republican pressure; I simply think he will leave to save himself from the public humiliation of getting less than 10% of the vote.

disgruntled_republican said...

Anon 3:55-

You are wrong on both fronts of your post. Schlesinger was at a Republican event I attended yesterday as well George Gallo and both said very clearly that Alan is in this race for the long hual. Furthermore, a letter was sent out to CT state central members and Town chairman from Gallo showing his full support for Schlesinger. Now I am no way saying this will stick nor that I am supporting him, just pointing out that the state party chairman is "behind him", that's all.

brickbat said...

Lieberman still can't break 50%. Between now and November he will lose support, he's pretty much got all of the supporters he's going to get.

Is there anyone out there who is still saying "Gee, I don't know about this Lieberman guy. Maybe I should find out more." ?

If Schlesinger drops out and someone like Orchulli takes the nomination, it will eat into Lieberman's support.

Lamont will win this thing.

Anonymous said...

disgruntled - anon. 3:55 here: I think you misunderstand my post. I am aware that Gallo is now publicly supporting Schlesinger. As I am sure you know, Gallo privately tried to get AS out of the race, but to no avail. Once AS made it clear that he was not getting out, then Gallo had no other choice. I know that AS currently has no intention of abandoning his race, as we have not even hit Labor Day yet. Having said that, in my opinion, if polls show Schlesinger at the pathetically low total of 2-8% points sometime in early October, then I think he will drop out. Just my opinion.

Anonymous said...

ACR Your state party chairman and your Governor kick your Senate candidate to the curb and now they say to support him? You wonder why the guy has no support?

Grumpy said...

Sheesh. It took almost 10 hours for someone to post something thoughtful in this thread. Thanks TG!

The rest of you children yelling insults at Lieberman and Lamont really need to get a life. Neither side is making their candidate look very good with this crap.

TG, you hit it on the head. I've said it before, Joe's path to victory relies on his turning out Republican voters who will vote for him without alienating too many of his Democratic supporters in the process. It's a delicate dance to say the least, but if he succeeds, he'll give the three Republican House candidates their best shot at overcoming the hurdle of having that (R) next to their names. ("Hurdle" in the context of this election year, and only for Congressional candidates.)

Of course, the original post in this thread was about the Zogby poll... And Zogby is not a very reliable poll. They make a better barometer of swings in a given race. But their overall numbers tend to be hit or miss for accuracy. So this poll doesn't really tell us much about the CT Senate race other than what we already know, Joe was ahead by maybe as much as 10% as of 2 weeks after the primary.

Now the real intriguing numbers in the Zogby poll are from the Virginia Senate race where they show a big swing to the Democrat challenger. Coming after Senator Allen was caught on camera making a racist remark, this poll probably confirms that race has gone from a solid R seat to tossup or even leaning D. Allen's people probably aren't letting him leave the house these days without first putting duct tape over his mouth.

If that race does indeed become competitive, and Republican Senate candidates elsewhere don't start making serious gains, look for additional movement by national Republicans to make nice with Joe. They might very well end up needing his vote to keep control of the Senate post-election.

But this is Connecticut Local Politics. No one here's really interested in thoughtful discussion.

Everyone go back to yelling "Joe Sucks" and "Ned's A Pinko".

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:55 - If you think Alan Schlesinger will be motivated by a desire to avoid public humiliation, you've obviously never met Alan Schlesinger.

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:26 said: ”Since we have a 2 to 1 lead in the State Senate, Finch is expendable. The longer he waits the angrier I get!”
Derby Conservative said: To say that you would vote against or abandon a Senator from your own party because he stands by his friends and sticks to his guns…oh wait, I guess that would be par for the course with you guys.

Not all of us. If the neophytes and the rabid ideological types even attempt to take Finch out, all that will happen (even if Finch wins) is they'll create long-term animosity toward themselves and weaken the party.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Your state party chairman and your Governor kick your Senate candidate to the curb and now they say to support him?


Not quite.

Jodi thanked Alan for running.

George Gallo has pointed out via a memo that Alan is the offical GOP candidate in the race.

way2moderate said...

Just by being behind Jodi, Schlesinger will likely capture 20%. That's a certainty.

The real issue for republicans is whether he can get is campaign to develop any of its own support in order to draw more than that minimal amount. If he does, that support will not come from Lamont; it'll come from Schlesinger. And that might mean that Lamont gets the edge and wins the race.

Watch for some sneaky manuevers from the Lamont camp aimed at throwing some support to Schlesinger. Indeed, I'm guessing that Schlesinger is counting on these efforts coming soon -- and that's one more reason he's deflecting all talk about getting out.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

If I had any hair, I'd rip it out.

1. There's a huge difference between polling 70 days before a primary between an unknown and Joe Lieberman and polling 70 days before a general between a new-found "rock star" cough, cough in Ned Lamont and Joe. If you don't know who Ned is by now, there's a good chance you didn't make the likely voter screen.

2. No one poll should guide anyone- including the Zogby. But show me one poll that has Ned beating Joe and I'll start to be a believer that he can win.

3. Yes, it is obvious that Joe's vote will be a function of Democrat retention and Republican cross-over. And independent support. I'm not sure why that's a novel idea to a lot of you- but whoever repeated it, thank you- it's an injection of reality.

4. What's this deal about Joe needing to crack 50? That math may apply in a straight incumbent race, but the AS candidacy throws things for a loop. And the undecideds may know Joe, but may split on whether to dump him.

5. All things being equal, if you were running one of the two campaigns, would you want those four polls to be for you or the other guy?

justavoter said...

Anonymous said" Lamont just wants to buy his way in and has no message other than Immediate withdrawal from Iraq that is a joke just like he and his joke of a Candidacy is."

So you think Men and Women Children and our people dying in Iraq is a joke ?

Cause thats what your comment really sounds like by attacking Lamont.

Lamont is very serious about the Iraq issue and does not consider it a joke as you do.

He has a solution to bringing Peace to Iraq with redeploying our Men and Women.

As far as buying his way in this race let me reminder you that Democrats voted freely for him on August 8th and we did not vote for him based on how much money he has .

Lieberman is far from being in the poor house and I doubt he will ever be in the poor house.

If anyone wants to buy his way back in to Washington its Loser Lieberman.

Your arguments about Lamont and his money is a bogus argument and because you can't deal with the issues you use your Neo-Con tactics like your good friend Dick Cheney and the other Neo-Cons in the Republican Party in Washington.

If you love Lieberman so much maybe you can be the next one to give him a kiss like Bush did.

Anonymous said...

being on page B18 every day will hurt Alan more than being on ballot position 2A helps

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

justavoter said...
..you think Men and Women Children and our people dying in Iraq is a joke ?


Apparently you do as that what was going on prior to our invasion and an all out wholesale slaughter would occur with the premature withdrawl you lay out below.

.. a solution to bringing Peace to Iraq with redeploying our Men and Women.


Swell - all sorts of bloodshed and 7 buck a gallon gas too!
What a plan.

justavoter said...

Since your on the Republican State Central committee I am not surprized by your comment in response to my post.

Wake up the Bloodshed is already there.

We cannot stay in Iraq anylonger.

The Bush ,Cheney ,Rumsfeld way is not working.

Lamont has stated clearly the Alternative and the Republican Neo-Con Iraq War is not the solution.

We were lied to by Bush and Company and the voters in Connecticut want our troops redeployed its a failed policy and staying the course in Iraq only means more problems and less solutions.

Not to mention we spend $285 million dollars each day and for what?

If we follow your reasoning then we should have let the English stay in North America.

No its time to change course and in November we will when Lamont and other Democrats win in the General Election.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

justavoter please go on, your posts are exactly the sort of ilustration we at the GOP need.


Thanks a million!

justavoter said...

What the Gop needs is a oneway ticket out of office.

Your worried about 7 bucks a gallon and less concerned with those dying in Iraq.

That says alot about the GOP .

Anonymous said...

Is "justavoter" a member of the U.S. military?

If not, stop pretenting to speak for them

I'm sick of the chickendoves sipping their lattees in Westport and trying to put words in the mouth of men and women who enlisted voluntarily to fight for those who take our freedoms for granted.

You may be too blase to see something worth fighting for in the desert, but given the re-enlistment rate in the military the folks who are fighting do not agree

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

justavoter said...
less concerned with those dying in Iraq.


How many Kurds do you know?

Have you actually ever met anyone from anywhere in Iraq?

Seems doubtful from your posts.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>I'm sick of the chickendoves sipping their lattees in Westport

Perfect!

justavoter said...

ACR being that your one of those Neo-Cons of the Republican Party I would expect such comments.

I bet your voting for your new best friend Lierman and don't forget that Kiss.

Lierman loves Republican.

I expect he will change parties being so lonely as the Party One to the Republicans .

He will be right at home.

Chickenhawks is that the best you Neo-Cons can come up with.

The Iraq War is a failed policy and if your a voter on this blog who understands this then Lieberman must be defeated in November.

I wonder why Conservative Republicans cannot support there Senate Candidate?

There is a Republican in this race running against Lamont you should give him your support.

Its the Republican thing to do.

justavoter said...

Oh its Chickendoves regardless .

Its again a diversion from the issues of the Bush failed policy in Iraq .

Lieberman is part of that failed policy because he supports it.

Its time to bring the troops home .

Anonymous said...

Wait, ACR, this is about keeping gas under $7 a gallon? I'm guessing you were one of the people screaming that it'd be $4/gallon EASILY by Labor Day. Well, it just dropped below $3 in West Hartford.

Gas prices? I guess all that stuff about freedom, democracy, national security, and fear was a bunch of, you know...crap.

But hey, at least you don't have every measure of the public showing massive doubts over the legitimacy of the way.


Oh wait...

Billy said...

justavoter

What is it aobut losing do you loonie libs love so much? I know you all share in the you have to be a victim to matter mentality, but this is just ridiculous.

Iraq war is going along fine, a few bumps in the road as in ALL wars, but we will prevail. You will have to hide your hatred for america after that since it will be a day for patriotism, not rabid lunatic anti americanism.

Its the republican thing to do? No the republican thing to do is, individualism, you know... that thing that you libs DESPISE so much? The same thing that makes you libs vote to try and grab guns out of law abiding citizens hands? The voting in sheepish blocs regardless of personal thought or without using your brain is what you libs do, not the republicans.

Anonymous said...

"Justavoter"

Please explain why Iraq has failed?

Then please apply the same standards to the following military engagements

*Bosnia
*Kosovo
*Korea

There's no "exit strategy" for any of those places , now is there?