Remember the governor's race? Dan Malloy lost a close one. John DeStefano somehow survived.
How? Why?
Newspapers are saying that DeStefano’s labor support helped to put him over the top, but it’s worth pointing out that DeStefano had the lion’s share of the unions. Malloy, on the other hand, had almost no union support—but still came within 4,000 votes of DeStefano. Republicans are arguing that this means the unions’ power is waning. It’s more likely that without such strong union support, DeStefano would have lost by 10,000 or more—so they still matter.
That doesn’t bode well for the general election. Union support matters a lot less in November than it does in Democratic primaries.
Mary Glassman’s surprising victory—the most decisive win out of all the statewide races—is probably the best thing to happen to the Democrats on Tuesday. DeStefano’s candidacy is much enhanced by her presence. How to explain it? Glassman won by a significant margin in almost every town in Connecticut. Maybe women voters were sending a message to the Democratic Party, or maybe this really was Audrey Blondin’s revenge. Then again, maybe people just didn’t like Scott Slifka. There’s probably some truth to all three, although the first may have been the biggest factor. Regardless, DeStefano/Glassman is a more viable ticket than DeStefano/Slifka.
Of course, that ticket will now have to deal with Jodi Rell (and her LG pick, what’s-his-name), who is still a popular governor after two years. Voters like Rell, and not just because she isn’t John Rowland. DeStefano will have to convince voters that the state is in the middle of all kinds of crises that Rell is doing nothing about in order to win. Luckily for Rell, that’s not actually true. Connecticut isn’t doing great—but neither are things as bad as they were in 1990. The biggest catastrophe that could have befallen the state—the closure of the Groton Sub Base—was averted in large part because of the efforts of Rell and other Republicans like Rob Simmons. There has also been significant campaign finance reform, again largely thanks to Rell. Without her support and constant pushing, I seriously doubt the Democrat-led General Assembly would have passed such a strong bill. Rell has disappointed on several fronts, to be sure, including serious property tax reform, health care and ethics. But by and large, voters think she’s doing a good job. DeStefano has been trying to convince them for two years that she’s a failure as a governor. His message has yet to catch on—and, with only three months to go and not a lot of money to play with, it may never.
Then again, Connecticut politics over the past few years has been all about the impossible coming to pass (remember Jarjura?). I’m not ruling out a DeStefano win. But he’s going to have to work hard, and his campaign will have to be a lot better for the general election than it was for the primary.
36 comments:
Who knows? If it weren't for the unions, maybe Malloy would have won in a blowout. Unless there are good exit polls, it may be impossible to tell.
What's the consensus on how the Governor's race would have played out without the Senate primary in the mix? I think many new voters might have pulled 1A just 'cos, while making a more deliberate choice for the Senate race. But again, it's hard to tell.
It's possible that 2,000 voters or more pulled the lever for DeStefano because he was on the same line as Lamont. Without the Senate race, though, I think the gubernatorial race would have had better coverage, which I have to think would have been better for Malloy than DeStefano.
Hang on a second Ghengis, just to get it out of the way ....
You're nothing but an apologist for Rell, your probably a staffer, you probably work on her campaign, she's been nothing but an empty suit, you're showing your colors, you're just a shill for the Rs, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Just thought I'd get it out of the way! ;)
DeStefano needs to get Sharpton and Jackson back in town.
With Ned and John leading the ticket, Universal healthcare and Gay marriage should get the Democrats excited and win Connecticut.
Glad that's out of the way... :)
There is little doubt that Glassman did so well because she is a woman. My wife came back from the polls saying she had voted for Glassman for just that reason, not knowing how else to separate the two LT candidates. Of course, that factor disappears completely in the general election with Rell at the head of the opposing ticket. Maybe DeStefano should go buy those dress-wearing ads from the Malloy camp and repurpose the voice-over for November.
"Mary Glassman’s surprising victory ...is probably the best thing to happen to the Democrats on Tuesday. DeStefano’s candidacy is much enhanced by her presence. How to explain it?"
GC: Huh? Can you explain this to me and tell me what I am missing. Here's my 2 cents:
1. Nobody (ok, except family members) votes for the Lt. Gov. candidate, just like they don't vote for VP. (Want proof: Mr. Potatoe, Dan Quayle)
2. DeStefano, his campaign and the state party have to spend time and money re-doing all of his signs, stickers, labels, etc. Don't laugh, that will be a not so insignificant inconvenience.
3. Glassman's victory was not Audrey Blondin's revenge. For the love of Pete - NOBODY, NOBODY, NOBODY outside bloggers on this board knows who the hell Audrey Blondin is. Get over it, already.
4. Glassman was a much better candidate than Slifka - not even close. But neither really campaigned, there were no ads, etc. Nobody outside party regulars knew who they were.
5. The 2 reasons for Glassman's win: first, the union folks went into the booth, pulled for Senate candidate of their choice, JDS and left the booth, not aware that the LG is elected separately; and second, women voted for a woman to balance the ticket. (BTW those women will now vote for Rell)
Listen, if the choice of an LG candidate is "the best thing" that happened to the Ds on primary night, then the Ds are in trouble.
BTW, Glassman's fundraising was primarily Malloy contributors who maxed out. Malloy's business community ties are all going with Rell now, not JDS. JDS will have a hard time raising a lot of money.
Prediction: Rell 57% JDS 43%
Good analysis GC. DeStefano has a lot of work to do to win-- and his awful speech primary night was not a good start. (Reminded me of Howard Dean yelling).
Unions probably did make the difference here, and they definitely own the legislative Democrats in Hartford. Most of the Democratic State Senators are bought and paid for by Big Labor. It's too bad really-- there is so much that can be done in CT that is blocked because change threatens someone's cushy bueraucatic job.
Anyone else finding it hilarious that neither Rell, Johnson, Simmons, Gallo, Mehlman have made mention of Alan Schlesinger in any of their post-primary remarks???
Alan, where's the outrage? where's the chagrin? Where's the amber alert you should've initiated...cause your party is definitely missing from your campaign!
There are definitley people who are not fans of slifka, but his defeat was obviously a function of being matched against the only woman in a statewide race. neither candidate was well known enough to be really judged on their merits.
Anonymous,
re: the Dean yell--that's exactly what I thought when I was listening to it on the radio. yeeEEEAhhh!
Bluecoat said: "one of these days I intend to ask Shays and his doctor friends what he thinks of a bill that says that any doctor who is injured in any way is only allowed to collect 250K max in pain in suffering regardless of what they have experienced due to the injury."
Bluecoat: I agree with your position on med mal reform. I alos thought it was more than funny when a Dr. sued Greenwich for millions when his son was in a sledding accident.
Here is my question: what if the Dr. all agreed to this limit? Would that change your mind?
A more serious question: We should all agree that the cost of lawsuits does have an imapct on the cost of health care, right? Are there more important factors? Yes. But lawsuits and the legal system do take their toll. I'll give you one example. I know a trial atty who spent the better part of 5 months picking a jury on a med mal suit. A partner and paralegal billing a client 6 to 8 hrs a day each for 5 months cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. The case was later dismissed by the judge (somewhat rare). That is a lot of money the hospital (self-insured) and the Dr.'s insuarnce co. had to pay. That incredible inefficiency in our legal system costs all of us with higher rates. Shouldn't we try to do something about that?
The problem in Washington and Hartford is that the trial lawyers have "bought" the Ds, so they won't do anything regarding the judicial system, and the insurance companies/ Dr.s have "bought" the Rs, so they won't do anything about accountability for the medical profession. We get paralysis in government as a result.
bluecoat: there are more than a few R legislators who did not favor the proposed $250K cap on med mal awards.
ANd by the way, Fedele was something like 6 months old when his family came to this country so I don't want to hear anything more about him sitting on the back of a donkey, clutching his little suitcase as he steamed into NY harbor. He had the same opportunities as everyone else.
So now that summer break's over, when do John and I get to start really campaiging???
"Rell has disappointed on several fronts, to be sure, including serious property tax reform, health care and ethics."
GC: With respect to property tax reform, Rell was the only person to put forth a plan. You can scoff at the car tax proposal, but it would have permanently cut property taxes by 8% across the state. The Democrats in charge of the legislature have NEVER passed a true property tax relief package. In fact, the Democrats response to the Gov.s plan to eliminate the car tax was to keep the car tax but equalize mil rates. Under that plan, property taxes in 90-something towns would have been raised!
With respect to ethics, the Gov. vetoed her own contracting reform bill 3 times b/c of anti-business, anti-jobs, anti-non-profit language put in by the unions.
With respect to health care reform, the Democrats again failed to pass a bill and put it on her desk.
Isn't time we held the legislature accountable for these failures? After all, it is their job to pass laws! I laugh when I hear Democratic legislators talk about how bad our state is ... tell them to look in a mirror for crying out loud!
and I don't want to hear the "good-government" people talking about ethics anymore when their hero candidiate Ned Lamont is closely associated with Jesse Jackson. You guys must be cringing that he was on the stand with Ned the other night for the whole world to see.
Anonymous,
I didn't scoff at the car tax proposal--I actually supported it. I still think it wasn't a half-bad idea. It would have saved me a ton of money.
That said, I still think Rell could have either pushed it a little harder, or proposed something a bit different. But you're right, at least she proposed something. You're also correct about contracting reform--the Democrats knew full well she'd veto the bill, but they sent it to her anyway. Three times.
Ok a reality check here.
1. Yes, John has a way to go to beat Jodi but I can't imagine all democrats not being united behind him - including the over 200K that voted for both John and Dan. (caveat - I volunteered for and voted for Malloy) -
2. Jodi hasn't done anything. There is no jobs policy and transportation policy in this state is a joke - though not a funny one. And as I type this I am contemplating getting in my car and driving from Norwalk to Bridgeport - should be fun. . .
I don't want to hear one scintilla of nonsense about Jodi and this idiotic campaign finance bill! Caruso is an idiot. My suggestion before you get all happy about it is read the ^@#^#%&*#* thing - I did - it makes absolutely no sense. The bill is endlessly complicated, moronically stupid, and most of the public money going out to candidates is going to pay professionals to run the treasurer's job. Remember there is criminal liability now and since the bill reads like ten chinese menus taped end to end, I can't imagine too many volunteers who are going to be willing to put their necks on the line.
3. Last but not least: tort reform and med mal caps are a republican ploy to limit business exposure and increase corporate profits. Pay attention: Texas enacted med mal caps on the premise that it would reduce med mal insurance rates. 6 months later the largest med mal insurer in the world applied to the Texax dept. of Insurance for a rate increase and indicated that med mal verdict caps would save approx. 1% and therefore they needed permission to increase rates.
Caps don't work - moreover, if you think they are a good idea: think of this - Duke medical center implants the wrong heart and lungs into a 16 year old girl - after the fact they recognize the mistake and have to implant another heart and another set of lungs - of course due to the mistake she dies. Since damages in a wrongful death suit are premised on your economic value (right or wrong) a lawyer is worth more than a garbage man. Unfortunately, the economic value of a 16 year old girl is hard to compute and is speculative so you won't get much in damages there. Thus, in this kind of case most of your damages are going to be pain and suffering and punatives. Under a cap of course the hospital only has to pay 250K after their mistake kills the girl. Sound fair?
"Waterbury," said Lamont campaign manager Tom Swan
(pictured), "are where the forces of slime meet the
forces of evil."
Waterbury may be the weirdest city in the state, just edging out Bridgeport. Democrats, Republicans... even if they're not mob-controled (strictly a theoretical possibility mind you) and even if they're not child molesters, they're still just plain weird out there. I think Murphy and Johnson are both confused as to what the hell is going on out there.
Anon. 2:02 said: "There is no jobs policy and transportation policy in this state is a joke..."
You call this a reality check!
The ONLY reason why we are investing $5 billion in improving our transportation infrastructure is because of the leadership of Gov. Rell. She used her political capital to start the ball rolling with $1.3 billion. Then smart Ds like Speaker Amann said: "we have to do more than the Gov. or she will win on this important issue." So Amann proposed more. This year's bill was a compromise b/w the Gov. and legislature. It was her initiation and vision that got the ball rolling. Anyone who tells you otherwise is NOT telling the truth. By the way, this was not as easy as it should have been, given the fact that Rowland and the legislature both did nothing for about 20 years on transportation. Moreover, developing a New Haven to Springfield rail line is BOTH a transportation plan AND an economic development plan. (It also relates to housing & smart growth.) Sorry if you can't see that, pal. Maybe leave Fairfield County for a day. FYI, the Mator of New Haven, her opponent, your candidate, has said that this is important for jobs in the region. He also said it was important to invest in Tweed Airport, which Gov. Rell is also doing.
As for jobs, what do you call saving the sub-base?
Finally, what is your idea of a jobs policy - passing the pay or play legislation that the Democrats, unions and JDS wanted? That will chase thousands of jobs out of the state and the Gov. had to spend a lot of time fending off that piece of horrible legislation.
Nice try. JDS is toast!
Speaking of ethics ... how is his record???? Hmmmmm.
Anon. 2:02 Why do we care about what is fair? In your scenario, the 16 year old is dead - that is a f***ing tragedy and the hospital and DR. must be held accountable. Take away the DR.'s license. But if she is not married, has no kids or dependents (even no siblings). please tell me how we as a society benefit from giving her parents and a couple of lawyers millions of dollars. If you want to punish the hospital and DR. financially, then fine, but make the money go to better training of DR.'s, or hiring more nurses or providing better care. That way, all of society benefits for a horrible wrong.
Can someone please explain to me what property tax reform looks like? The only proposals from Democrats I have heard just shift the tax burden from the towns to the state.
How is that reform?
Please tell me how Jodi Rell was LG for nine and 1/2 years and didn't know her partner in government was a crook?
And then tell me why her son has been living off the state dole for a comparable amount of time?
Anon 237- Rell's son has done things that have gone under the radar Many people forget the stolen watercraft he was on But got off Because someone at DEP and The State Police knew Jodi and they gave him a pass.
Everyone only sees the Jodi that is holding her grandson on the news in front of the cameras.
The bad stuff gets buried forever.
DeStefano would be no better He cant keep his word when picking his LG runningmate he has to listen to The Fred Flintstone lookalike(kevin Sullivan)to find Scotty too Hotty Slifka and look where that got him.
Basically this election is about the lesser of two evils.
Right now my options are Jodi or dont vote at all not a lot of gray area.
BR-you forgot
6) changing our form of government from "the republic" to "the people's republic"
7) making granola a staple of state dinners
8) ensuring that it's not just legal to hug a tree--you can marry one too.
I always knew that BR only supported Ned Lamont so that, indirectly, Alan Schlesinger could be elected. They are, after all, both gambling men.
It's all a Rove plot--all of it!!!
Here what Joe said today--right out of central casting!!!
Rove made Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson stand behind Ned!!!
The man is an all powerful deity!!!
John Destefano has absolutely no chance of victory over Rell. First of all, he is nothing more than a machine politician trying to disguise himself as a Progressive (much the way dean did as well) because he thinks it is in style. Check his contributions -- all from big state contractors and people that reek Rowland. The bottom line is that true progressives see DeStefano for what he is: a phony. Rell, at the very least, is an honest and real person, although unfortunately a Republican. DeStefano says he is for Universal Health Care, but says absolutely nothing anywhere on his website about what kind of a program he might want to propose. Takling Universal Health Care is a MAJOR undertaking with should not and essentially cannot be politicized. Some idiot mayor from New Haven with no experience at dealing with a legislature, never mind leading a state, standing up and declaring he is for universal health care is as stupid as if george bush declared war on west virginia.
Anon 227: Med mal lawsuits cannot shut a negligent facility down, in fact even the most gross malpractice violations don't require stripping the doctor in question of his/her license.
The med mal damages become the only real tool to make an incentive / disincentive for hospitals or private practitioners to carefully regulate their practices.
The problem is not the victims of malpractice being overcompensated, the problem is that America has the highest actual rates of malpractice in the world. Very very little of it is actually litigated. Blaming the victim is a very shabby thing to do, especially when these awards are determined by juries operating in the best traditions of the American justice system.
It's amazing to me that in order to help a hospital corporation make a few more bucks, people have been convinced that we must let actual malpractice go unpunished and overturn the jury-based justice system.
Several interesting threads here tonight. A couple comments:
1. To those ethically superior but anon JDS supporters (237), JDS is a filthy crook. If he starts to get any traction, his skeletons will surface. I'd advise against the "holier than them" strategy.
2. To those of you nutjobs that think universal healthcare and gay marriage can win an election, congratulations on winning the only election those two issues can win: A Democrat Party Primary. Whether JDS is a phony liberal or a real one (I agree with the phony analysis--after all he was a college republican), that kind of nutjob liberalism can't win a general election.
3. And the final reason why Rell will win: the real aftermath of the Rowland debacle is the numbness of the general electorate to this nasty, personal, blog filled haze that substitutes for real change. Therefore, grandma wins...people don't want anything, they just want a Gov that won't embarass them. Related reason: the US Senate race is too darn exciting for anyone to care about a race between grandma and a whiny, limp-wristed union stooge.
It looks like Rell has hired a blogging staff, huh? It didn't take long for the republicans to start throwing out names like "crook" and "idiot". Notice that there are no facts behind any of these statements. Honestly, it makes me feel like DeStefano might have a better shot than people are getting him credit for. If the Republicans think he has no shot, why would they be on here sounding off?
I don't think Universal Health Care will be an issue that decides any election in Connecticut. Such a high percentage of our population has health care, access to quality care is within reach of most of those that vote and I think most people realize it will cost a bundled. The D's best hope is for a major screw-up from one of Jodi's Commissioners. Her set of commissioners and staffers are the worse in memory. Rowland had a couple of real nasty, greedy crooks but Rell only has about two quality commissioners and one is a holdover.
JDS was not a college Republican
Post a Comment