Friday, August 18, 2006

Friday Open Forum

An interesting story about state legislatures swinging towards the Democrats. I suspect that in our own, the GOP may pick up a handful of seats, although they won't come close to controlling either chamber. More than anything, we may see a lot of incumbents from both parties in danger.

Lieberman's approval ratings are down a bit among Democrats and (crucially) independents, and slightly up among Republicans.

Lastly, I am going on vacation starting today. I probably won't post much (if at all) over the next week, and I won't be checking email that much. I will leave you in the very capable hands of CGG, disgruntled_republican, True Gentleman, turfgrrl and Gabe.

What else is happening?

58 comments:

bluecoat said...

Business lobby backs Lieberman, 3 GOP reps By:Don Michak, Journal Inquirer 8/17/2006

Derby Conservative said...

I can tell you one incumbant who is going to lose...Linda Gentile of the 104th!

BRubenstein said...

Derby...next week for the pistol range should work..BTW any truth to the rumor that Themis will be campaigning in a bkini? any chance we could have her over at the range for pics? ( wink)

Anonymous said...

LMAO..with your luck you will see John DeStefano in a bikini campaigning before you see Themis in one..

Anonymous said...

I would never seek to sully this blog with a sports reference, but this weekend really demands it.

Red Sox win 3 games to 2.

Yankees suck.

disgruntled_republican said...

Reference away Anon

Red Sox - 4

Yankess - 1

And I'll be there Sunday night in the rain.

bluecoat said...

from the Westport News:Maymin Enters 4th District Race By Azia Li Forrest and Shays' 14th Trip to Iraq Sparks Comments from Farrell By DON CASCIATO

Derby Conservative said...

Brucie, email me and we'll set up the details. You have your own handgun to bring or am I supplying that too. I have dozens, so either way.

BrassBoy said...

The break down will be no better than 3 to 2 for either team, leaving the Yanks in first either way, where they shall remain for the rest of the year.

Have a fun next 80 years...

26 - 5

ken krayeske said...

Damon leads off the series with a triple - almost an in-the-park HR - Yankees win series 3-2. They will split the doubleheader.

Gary Holder-Winfield said...

Message to Joe Lieberman skip don't run

Anonymous said...

What’s the political equivalent to the Yankees blowing a 3-0 series lead in 2004?

Dewey & Truman?

Anonymous said...

Enough the Red Sox-Yanks..

As far as local politics...what Senate and House seats do my fellow posters see as swinging to the R's?
I would think that the R's could make some gains in the State Senate but quality candidates failed to come forward for some reason (I suspect many waiting till public financing in 2008)... The 16th in my opinion should go from D to R with Murphy running against Johnson for Congress and Caliguiri (R) appearing to be the frontrunner...The 12th is primed for a R to regain the seat as Meyer is beatable but the R's failed to put a candidate who stands a chance so it will be 2 more years of Ed in Hartford...Possibly the 5th could go Republican with Ryder taking on a vulnerable Harris, but money might be a problem for Ryder...The 18th could be a problem for the R's as Winkler is a sitting state rep, but his opponent, Maynard (D), barely lost 2 years ago to Cook so he has good name recognition as well ...Does Capenera stand a chance in the 9th? I can't read that race at all
As far as the House, I can't see the R's making too many gains either...Romano will have a shot, but Gentile pulled it out last time and the makeup of the district is overwhelming D...the 53rd could be interesting as it is an open seat and Teveris actually has quite a following and a very impressive record...

Thoughts? Comments?

Anonymous said...

-Senate 16 will go R cause it an open seat. That is it in the Senate.
-The net gain in the House will not change by more that one or two either way.

Anonymous said...

I agree largely with Anon 2:25.

Senate will see 1-2 pickups for Rs. House will not see much swing either way.

Here are my current Senate predictions for close and open seats:

Senate 7 (Kissel): Kissel (R)
Senate 9 (Ciatto): Doyle (D)
Senate 12 (Meyer): Meyer (D)
Senate 14 (Schlossberg): Schlossberg (D)
Senate 16 (Murphy): Caliguiri (R)
Senate 18 (Cook): Winkler (R)
Seante 21 (Gunther): Debicella (R)
Senate 22 (Finch): Finch (D)

Basically, R's hold on to what they have and pick up Murphy's seat. The two I may be wrong on are Kissel and Finch-- those two might be close (depends on the Lieberman factor).

Thoughts?

JR's Dreamy said...

The 104th will swing R because Linda is proving to be a bust. She hasn’t done anything and has a history of skipping committee hearings that have issues affecting her district on the agenda. She has only been doing Dem doors here and there while Romano is well on his way to 4,000 already. When Romano let loose a constant barrage about her donations coming from corporations and special interests, she stopped raising money altogether, reporting $350 raised last quarter, while Romano had thousands.

She’s resting on her laurels and taking that Dem base for granted. While Derby is also overwhelmingly Dem, JR will blow her out in his home town because Romano is one of those families that are very well known in town. He had an uncle who was mayor, his mother teaches at the HS and his dad and uncle have been running excellent restaurants forever. His hammering of Linda in Ansonia will keep it close there and that’s all he needs to take it…like he almost did in 2004 in spite of the anti-GOP Rowland fallout.

JR's Dreamy said...

I disagree with Anon 3:15 on one point…the 14th. The only reason that Schlossberg took it in 2004 was because of the same anti-GOP Rowland backlash that got other sub-par candidates into office (like Linda Gentile). West haven will go Schlossberg, Orange will continue it’s trend and go Lisman and there is absolutely no doubt in anyone’s mind that Milford will swing hard for Lisman, considering her husband was one of the most popular mayors in recent memory there.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

BTW, GC: Enjoy the time off.

Anonymous said...

Time off...GC, you have to turn comment moderation off! It sucks anyway.

Anonymous said...

jr's dreamy is right on the 14th Senate seat. The race is won or lost in Milford and Lisman will win Milford. GS is a hard campaigner and will do anything to win (remember her last minute attack on Win Smith claiming he was a bigot when it was her staff that threw her lawn signs in front of the synogogue), but she is not well liked (ask Jim Amann). Plus, the lieberman factor is huge in this race - look at his numbers in the 14th. Who is GS endorsing?

Anon. 3:15 correctly points out 2 incumbents in trouble - Finch & Kissel. They could both lose.

BRubenstein said...

Paul Vance paid me off..with lunch...next is Derby Conservative and Gabe...I will be taking bets for November in a month...LMAO

Anonymous said...

Rumor has it the City of Waterbury is going to put up a Statue of Tom Swan in front of The Waterbury Republican so everyone can see what the moron looks like.

Also Cherry St will be renamed Tom Swan Blvd.

Anonymous said...

The Senate R's will retain all of their incumbent seats and pick up a minimum of two. Caliguri in the 16th and Capenera in the 9th should be relatively easy wins.

They both have a decided advantage in name recognition over their lesser known opponents.

Senate D’s will concede these races to focus on others.

Anonymous said...

I like Romano and he has proven to be a hard worker, but lets not let this blog become a Romano campaign sight...He is more qualified than Gentile, but do we need 50 reasons why (see JR's Dreamy above). He has an uphill battle becasue of the district so lets not forget that. The D's would have prolly been better off putting up another candidate other than Gentile though.

Anonymous said...

Why didn't Senate 12 put up a real candidate? Is the guy they have now just a placeholder and they are actively looking elsewhere or have the R's just conceded the 12th this year? Meyer may not be liked by anyone but he knows how to run a campaign. He can be beaten but it would take a very good candidate and obviosuly money!!!

Anonymous said...

Senator Lieberman is going to win I live in a town where the Liberals have taken over the DTC that I had to resign.

Before I resigned I wrote and editorial asking people to vote for Lieberman and not Lamont.

Then the Lamont Groupie on the DTC writes a letter to the editor and attacks me for supporting Joe Lieberman.

Well a lot of people on both sides R and D have commended me on my stance and some have said they will be supporting Joe in November.

So let The Lamont Groupies keep attacking and criticizing Conservatives Because all that message does is turn people off to what Ned is saying and I believe he will lose in November due to his lie and deceive tactics,an incomptent Campaign Staff and a bunch of liberals who also lie and deceive the public.

Joe Lieberman will win Ned Lamont Will lose and all will be alright with the world Because you Liberals can go back under your rocks until the next cause comes along.

Have a great weekend

Anonymous said...

Could possibly the 12th R candidate be a placeholder and Aniskovich will be making a comeback. Aniskovich vs.Meyer II
Why wouldn't the R's put up a candidate in the 12th?

Anonymous said...

John DeStefano has been pretty quiet here in Litchfield County so far.If he wants to win he needs to get them back in the fold sooner rather than later.

Havent seen Ned Lamont here neither I guess he thinks he has it sewn up I guess when you have millions of dollars and a bunch of groupies following you around like your The Beatles you can write your own ticket.

Anonymous said...

Re: Swan

Has it ever occured to ANYONE that the reason Tom Swan made the comment in the first place is that Waterbury has been home to 3 of the most corrupt poltiicans in New England history?

It was mean...but maybe all that hemming and hawing over his comments is time that could be better spent wondering why Waterbury politics has so many bad apples.

It'd be a much more productive use of their time.

Anonymous said...

Most of the Rs in the 12th thought Aniskovich was going to try to win the seat back, and he kept everyone at bay until he made up his mind. For the most part, that explains why the Rs could not field a better candidate. Plus, others like Bob Ward, Peter Metz, etc. had no interest.

Anonymous said...

Everybody thought Greg Hannon wouldn't get the nomination over Aniskovich and he did. If you think Meyer has an easy win you may be in for a big surprise. Meyers had a terrible session and comes off as a bit of a jerk. For that reason alone, Hannon has a good shot of winning.

Anonymous said...

True, Aniskovich did take a while to make up his mind. Ward would be a great candidate and would most likely win. Metz would also most likely put up a good fight and would be the favorite, although to a lesser extent than Ward. I still am surprised no one else came forward cause it is a seat for taking with the right candidate and the right amount of money. Is the guy they have no even campaigning and raising money? His last campaign finance report was pretty dismal.

Anonymous said...

Ansikovich didn't attempt to get the nomination. If he did, he would have without a problem. The only reason the R's are stuck with the guy they have now is because no one challenged him at the convention to which almost no one attended. I give the guy credit for stepping forward, but I assure you he will not win. Most R's I know in the district are not even supporting him---just look at his lack of funds.

Anonymous said...

If you're going to try to keep the Swan story alive don't forget what good 'ol joe had to say, ahhhh, yet more hypocricy from the Lieberman campaign...

"But if the city occupies the center of Mr. Rowland's universe, it has also long been regarded as a sort of quasar of corruption, spewing it forth into the political galaxy of this small state. This reputation is so solidified that Senator Joseph I. Lieberman once felt comfortable joking that upon his death, he hoped to be buried in Waterbury so he could remain politically active."

Anonymous said...

Anon. 4:37 said: "Everybody thought Greg Hannon wouldn't get the nomination over Aniskovich and he did."

I'm not sure if this is the dumbest thing or the funniest thing that I have ever read on this blog. Hannon did not face any challenge for the nomination - he was uncontested. He did not get it over anyone, much less Aniskovich.

Your comments about Meyer are correct. Nobody in his caucus likes him, as he is arrogant and always talking about his service in the New York legislature. That said, he will probably still beat Hannon.

Anonymous said...

There is alot of resentment for the R candidate because he came forward so quickly after Bill Aniskovich's loss and stated he was running. No one is taking this guy seriously in my opinion as I have seen very few Rs supporting him.

Anonymous said...

So what seats are actually in play? My guess is there are two: Kissel and Finch. Others all seem to have a heavy favorite.

Caliguri and Debicella have commanding financial leads. Meyer and Schlossberg are well entrenched (and well funded) with B-level opponents. Winkler is well-known and running a good campaign. Doyle just has a very Democratic leaning district.

Of course, who knows what Lieberman will do. I don't think anyone really knows if this will help Rs or Ds downticket.

Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Great afternoon discussions here. Really enjoyable stuff.
My take is that the D's will be helped by Lieberman running as an independant only because the D turnout is going to be so high. Everyone crazy liberal D is going to come out for Lamont and every moderate D is going to come out for Lieberman. That totals a very high D turnout acrosee the board. R's could be complacive with the Rell having such a commanding lead.
I say this as a moderate Republican. I keep hearing everyone talk about how the R's are going to be helped by Lieberman as a U, but I just don't unfortanutely see it. I think quite the opposite and the D's will have the advantage. The R's still have the better message though, but that hasn't changed in quite some time.

MikeCT said...

Stamford Advocate political reporter Tobin Coleman died suddenly last weekend while jogging near his home. Very sad. He did not have identification on him, so it took police a few days to identify him. The Advocate article includes comments from his colleagues and elected officials.

Anonymous said...

Finch is toast if he goes through with his plan to publicly back Lieberman. There is a group of 10-20 liberals who are saying they're going to volunteer in Bridgeport, to help Farrell while at the same time doing their best to get Democrats to roll-over on Finch.

How many votes did Bill win by in 2004? And what is Russo like? From what I've heard, he isn't half-bad, for a Republican that is.

Anonymous said...

rumor is Lisman will self-fund

justavoter said...

Anonymous the one supporting Lier who resigned from his DTC because they support Lamont.

What turns voters off is people like you and Lier who did not respect the Primary Voter where Lamont won with over 10,000 more votes then Lier.
If you support Lier for Senate go join the Republican Party because to tell ya the truth your no Democrat.

Lamont voters have positive solutions to the issues and your like I say the real Democrats are nolong going to be silent and let Conservatives Republicans who like you are still registered Dems to tell real Democrats what we need.

What we need is Lier to resign and do it now.

Do you support the War in Iraq ?
If you do Lier is your man if you don't then wake up.

justavoter said...

Its time for Progressive Democrats to stand up to you folks on here who love Joe and cannot see through the garbage he shells out.

As far as Waterbury goes they need another newspaper started in that city thats more objective The Republican is a lol.
I would rather read the New York Times .They got it right.

I am fire up on this blog and decided to take on the Conservatives within our Democratic Party who have constantly be attacking Ned Lamont
and supporting Lier Joe for Senate.

Lets see what should I write next post.

Anonymous said...

something that makes sense, maybe?

AnonAndOnAndOn said...

MikeCT: Can't say that I've agreed with much of your postings or politics, but I admire your ardor and THANK YOU for remembering Tobin Coleman. Class move. Thanks.

justavoter said...

That would be your response because you know I'm right and thats the botton line.

justavoter said...

you want something that makes sense his name is Ned Lamont.

Anonymous said...

The Waterbury Republican is the best paper in the State They stand up to the Nedheads and they put Tom Swan in his place !!!!!!

hooray for The Waterbury Republican

MikeCT said...

AnonAndOnAndOn,
Thank you!

Anonymous said...

Anon. 5:06 - Do you homework on Milford before making comments regarding the quality of candidates, as Barbara Lisman is an exceptional candidate. Her husband was a beloved former Mayor, who easily defeated the very popular Jim Ammann. She is an outstanding person in her own right. Plus, she will have more than enough money to run a winning campaign. Schlossberg is toast.

Anonymous said...

Republican's will add 3 seats in the Senate.

Barbara Lisman in the 14th has a good chance of beating Slossberg. Lisman has some big $$$ and she is willing to spend it. Her late husband Fred was a nice guy and was a very popular Mayor of Milford and that will help her. People who know agree that Milford is the key to victory. Slossberg is a bit of an odd duck and wouldn't of beat Win Smith in 04 if it wasn’t for a heavy Presidential turnout and the Rowland hangover.

Rob Russo #22 came close in 04 and if Finch is supporting Lieberman Russo wins. The District is Democrat and Bridgeport will be Russo’s problem but he is a much smarter and aggressive campaigner. Jodi Rell will also be sure to give him a helping hand and if her popularity stays high she will help guys like Russo.

Capenera wins in the 9th which should be renamed "Little Italy". Even though the district favors Democrats many of those Democrats have a vowel at the end of their name and if you know anything about that group you know they will choose a nice Italian boy over a Doyle every time. More bad news for Doyle, AFL-CIO is not supporting him which ended any chances he may have stood. Capenera is also known throughout the district thanks to his previous run and a long running cable show.

* Wild Card* If Caligiuri does well in Southington, Republican’s may win that seat too. That would give Democrats a 20-16 advantage in the Senate.

Anonymous said...

Romano in the 104th is ridiculous. Gentile won in a lackluster Democratic year, she has compiled a good record in Hartford in her first term, has a 30 year history in the private sector dealing well with people and knows her district.

Romano has never done anything for anybody but himself, has never served on a local board or commission and is desperately trying to create fog around his actual residence (W. Hartford ?) and ties to Rowland.

Linda works as hard as anybody has but doesn't spend her time or ours trying to embellish her efforts. She is a good person, well respected by her colleagues and the romano camp's personal attacks on her will backfire

Anonymous said...

In the 12th, it's accurate that the nomination was Aniskovich's for the asking...he just didn't ask.

The reason most Rs wanted Aniskovich back is they understand that the seat is swing at best and not a leaning R seat. Rs will learn this year that the 12th was Aniskovich's seat, not an R seat. He was and is exactly the kind of R they need to win in D areas. He won because he either won or held losses in D areas down with his moderateness on social issues.

In fact, check the books...even in his 2004 loss, Aniskovich got more votes than he ever received in any of his previous election wins.

If they want that seat back, they need a popular R from Branford...and go find that!

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:10-

The big problem is that there aren't any.

capitalwatcher said...

Pocock in the 30th is another race to watch. I predict this goes to into the R column.

Derby Conservative said...

Anon 9:16 on 8/19-

When you reference personal attacks by Romano's people against Gentile, can you please cite one example? I doubt it since JR has never had a bad thing to say about Linda.

However, in the opening salvo of the campaign (the profile piece in the June 15th Valley Gazette), Linda said that she would like to keep this a campaign focused on the issues and then went on to call JR a "young John Rowland" and stated that his blind ambition has led him to "distort the truth". You want to talk about personal attacks, I think that those were pretty good examples.

Anonymous said...

Response to Derby Conservative:

Mr. GOP - The website you run talks of Gentile's "tainted cash" or that "Rep. Gentile never met a special interest she didn't like".

Your attacks on a very good public servant who has worked hard for her community for a very long time is part of what is at hand here.

Clearly, you are doing this at the behest of your candidate and trying to disguise him as being positive. Karl Rove all the way.

Keep attacking.

People are watching and listening.
The closet door may open soon and the Romano camp will be confronting their skeletons.

Derby Conservative said...

Anon 11:29, or should I say Gary Hale?

First of all, thank you for visiting my blog. I’m flattered that the former State Senator who was the deciding vote in giving the people of the State of Connecticut this wonderful thing we call the State Income Tax would stoop to my level. You must have sold off some of your slum houses to make the time.

Why are you so offended by the truth? The vast majority of Ms. Gentile’s campaign funds to this point have been received from special interests and lobbyists. Is it because you’re realizing that the days when a Democrat in the Valley could sit back, do nothing for 2 years and still get reelected are done? Don’t believe me? Ask Garofalo. He should be easy to find since he seems to be working the Italian Festival circuit. I didn’t know he found employment as a professional fried dough maker. I guess that’s all he was really qualified for after running Derby into the ground.

Also, thank you for comparing me to Karl Rove. That’s quite flattering and kind of you.