Saturday, August 05, 2006

The Day Poll: Support Thin for Lieberman Independent Run

Some numbers from the new poll commissioned by the New London Day:
If the primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

Lamont............53%
Lieberman.......43%
Undecided.........4%

Would you like to see Joe Lieberman run as an independent if he loses in the Democratic primary?

Yes................24%
No.................63%
Not Sure........13%

The poll surveyed 600 likely Democratic voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Lamont's numbers continue to be strong, although this lead is not as commanding as a recent Quinnipiac Poll suggested (13%) and Tom Swan is quoted in the article as saying that their internal numbers show a smaller gap, but the very small number of undecided voters in the race is bad news for Lieberman.

The second question is interesting, and I wish we had a feel for how many likely general election voters felt this way. If Lieberman finds weak support for an independent run, he may decide to drop it.

Source

New London Day Poll. 5 August, 2006.

Update: This poll was co-sponsored by the Journal-Inquirer.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Senator Lieberman is not going away You Lamont People would love Joe to fold up his tent and call it a career.

I would never support Ned Lamont and I dont think Joe is going anywhere You Liberals are praying he will But these polls are just that polls and I think Senator Lieberman stays in it and beats Ned Lamont in November I have heard a lot of people who will support Joe.

The New London Day what a bastion of Journalism excellence.

Anonymous said...

The followup question that I wished they would ask:

Should Sen. Lieberman return the money that he raised for his general election bid under the pretense that he would be running as a Democrat?

bluecoat said...

Aug 4, 5:05 PM EDT
Senator predicts Lieberman would abandon run if he loses primary
By DEVLIN BARRETT
Associated Press Writer

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the better metric to consider is that 60% of those voting for Joe as a Dem think he ought to run as an independent. Obviously few Lamont voters will, so that's not all that importnat, now is it?

If Alan Gold sticks in all Joe may need is 24% of the Dem vote any way

disgruntled_republican said...

The 2nd question is meaningless really. Joe gets and well keep large support from Unaffiliated voters and certainly will get Republican votes as well. Add that 24% and you have a strong candidate in a 3-way race.

Joe can certainly still win the general election. He most certainly cannot with his current campaign staff and if he truely wants to win, he needs to fire ALL of them on August 9th.

And before you all call me a republican backing Joe...I will not vote for him. Aside from the war, he is much too liberal for me.

Anon 12:26-

It's funny you say that. I seem to remember a certain Senator from Vermont going from R to U and while many Republicans called for him to refund donations under the Republican pretense, the many Democrats I know didn't see that necessary...perhaps the tune is changing now that it affects them....hmmm...i will have to ask.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

702,000 Registered Dems out of 2.1 million total registered voters. If there is 50% turnout (a high bound estimate) and Ned gets 60%- that's about 200-210,000 votes.

In NY, a primary loss would be a killer- not here. The absolute numbers don't mean a lot.

BUT... a recalibrated message does.

And money won't matter as much in a big free-exposure race. (As opposed to the governor race- where the Dem needs a fortune to blast through the Senate coverage.)

Anonymous said...

If Joe's campaign staff had any dignity they would fire themselves on August 9. A pathetic effort indeed

bluecoat said...

Actually, Joe's staff di quite well given the self destructing defective product they had to sell.

Anonymous said...

GOTV presence: I've so far received about ten GOTV calls from Malloy, just got a robo call this morning from DeLauro on behalf of Lieberman, but haven't gotten anything from Lamont and -- surprisingly -- DeStefano.

Malloy's GOTV campaign is, if anything, too well organized. Ten calls to one Dem primary voter in three days will persuade me to vote, but I'm not sure it'll persuade me to vote for Malloy.

disgruntled_republican said...

bluecoat-

you sy, "Actually, Joe's staff di quite well given the self destructing defective product they had to sell."

While it is a self-destructing defwective product now, it was them that made it that way. A good campaign team could have headed that off at the pass so it wouldn;t have happened but their total lack of campaign knowledge and execution doomed joe's campaign before it began.

As fat guy in the middle seat notes, a recalibrated message to an audience that largely likes you at this point is all the difference in the worls...now he just needs people who know what they are doing.

Anonymous said...

I recall in the spring seeing a positive Lieberman ad full of boilerplate Democrat rhetoric on oil companies and the environment and thinking the ad could be run in Oregon, Florida or Ohio by just changing the name of the candidate. Surprise. The ad failed. Duh! It didn;t say anything!

Joe got taken by a lot of high priced consultants who delivered a schlock product.

bluecoat said...

DG: I have never thought Joe was anything but a defective product for as long as I have lived in this state - over 15 years; it took Joe's arrogance when challenged to bring that out for the Democrats; his team was bad but thier product self destructed in front of their eyes; the enmic CT GOP blew it when they didn't challenge him, and that includes Shays who supports him becasue he found it politically expedient to do so - I expect Shays actions will hurt him with conservatives; actually I know they already have.

Brass Anon said...

As long as Democrats get behind their Democrat candidate in November, then the primary winner should win the Senate seat.

George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney are evil, inhuman, hateful war-mongers who have no souls. They stole an election, lied to us about a false threat in Iraq, drove the middle class into a hole, and preyed upon an under-educated populus' fear.

And Joe Lieberman supported the evil bastards.

He doesn't have a shot. Nor should he - ever again.

Anonymous said...

Here's the question no one is asking, and should be. What's the connection between the Lieberman blackface photo posted by Jane Hamsher, and the Black Lawn Jockey Society that a prominent Lamont supporter used to run? Coincidence?

Anonymous said...

I can tell you from a media perspective that it does not look good for Joe Lieberman.

If had wanted to win he should have held public events and made them public where people would know in advance where he would be from the start .

Having a bus tour around the state without letting people know what time or town or place you will be in till after the fact is running a bad campaign.
Lamont on the other hand on his site has an events page where people can sign up to attend events created by regular people who have heard his message on tv radio etc.

Lieberman campaign site has nothing.

If you want to know how to reach the people and make your case to get them to vote for you Lieberman can take a lesson from Lamonts Campaign staff.

There doing everything the right way.

When Joes bus came one morning into my town I was on my way to work and saw some folks with Lieberman signs and the Kiss Float in the parking lot.

Then 10-15 minutes later the bus pulls in.

Now no one knew he was stopping in my town .

When Lieberman loses on Tuesday it will for alot of varied reason one of which is not connecting with the Democratic voters and letting them know where you would be to see you.

The other reason he will lose he voted a few weeks ago to defeat two Senate bills that would have gradually started to bring troops home in 2007.

He says he disagree's with Bush but yet speaks on Cspan supporting Republican and ConservativeDemocrats which he has become that support the current policy of stay the course.

There are other reason he should and will lose the Primary but these two are enough.

He just has no connection to the feeling Democratic voters have now in Connecticut.

It might be the 18 years within the Washington Beltway and insider politics.

The old boy school of the Party machine is in trouble and Lieberman's loss will have reverberating effect's on all who are in Washington in both parties in future elections.

Anonymous said...

Here's a question I haven't heard addressed: how does a Lamont win and Lieberman independent run impact Congressional and State Legislative races? Positive or negative? Here is the argument for both:

Positive Impact (for D's): Three-way races causes massive GOTV effort and money flowing in from national party. Such an effort will not be present in a two-way race, where the Gov and Senate races would be all but certain (R and D, respecitvely).

Negative Impact (for D's): Three way race causes some D and U voters to go from Rell to Lieberman. Some then stop and leave. Others just return to the R line where they voted for Rell. (Not everyone, mind you, but maybe 5-10%...enough to swing a couple close Congressional and State Legislative races).

Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

"When Cortez reached the New World he burned his ships. His crew was far more motivated"

Marko Ramius in "The Hunt for Red October".

Joe Lieberman should have burned the "ship" of winning a Dem primary, foregone insider baseball, and run a people based moderate indepedent campaign ala Weicker 1990. . Now his ship has sank and his crew lacks the motivation to succeed in this brave new world of outsider politics