GC, I think there are some interesting numbers out there from after the primary that are worth discussing. Survey USA commissioned an "approval rating" poll on both Dodd and Joe.
Joe's 8/15 approval rating was 53/43, below Dodd's 56/37. Do note that the poll was weighted more heavily toward Dems, who tended the be the group weighing Joe down.
Interesting things to cull out as deviations from the mean:
African-American voters approve of Joe 60/31, Hispanics, 61/33. Unclear if the Sharpton/Waters initiative pre-primary did much damage to Joe- or was of much value to Ned.
Voters over 55 favor Joe 61/37. Those are the folks who vote.
Dems are 46/52, which pretty much reflects the primary vote. Indies 49/44. Reps 66/32.
How fascinating is it that african-americans, hispanic-americans and the older folks seem to like Joe more- as do Republicans as a block. These groups don't necessarily have a lot of overlap.
A very weird coalition is emerging behind Joe. If you have any interest in politics, this has to fascinate you.
More goodies:
No college: 62/35 Grad school: 53/33 Some college / college are closer to 50/50.
Those who regularly attend church: 57/38. Again, Sharpton's pulpit, to what impact?
One more- Fairfield County is the region bringing Joe's numbers down. New Haven is pulling him up.
>>Joe Aresimowicz, running for re-election for state rep in Berlin & Southington
Not a prayer of keeping his seat.
All special interest money behind him and he's up against a guy that not only has never lost an election, but has never once not gotten the highest vote in town regardless of office.
MikeCT said... 18 Democratic Town Committee chairs and a State Central Committee member have signed a letter calling on Lieberman to withdraw "quickly and gracefully."
Odd, there's at least twice that on GOP state central alone that would love to dump Alan Gold and put Joe on our line.
That would accomplish 3 things.
1. Assure his victory over Lamont
2. Drive Rells numbers to over 70% at which point the coat tail affect kicks in netting us an additional half dozen house seats at least.
3. Drive the whacky left faction of the Democratic Party nuts.
MikeCT said... "Is it possible for a Republican to lose?
Somehow I don't see a senate seat in Alan Golds future.
We have a slew of candidates that are not getting off their respective behinds and doing anything; Pocock's not one of them neither is Sam Caliguri.
I'd put money on our senate candidate in the 20th too; Chris Oliviera - he's easily got everyone else on state central by at least 20 IQ points and all he thinks about is politics all day everyday.
ACR: If Oliviera has everyone on state central by at least 20 IQ points, that doesn't say much for the rest of you guys including your Chairman Gallo although it may explain why you guys have been getting pounded in State elections.
FGMS: Great post. Should make for a day of interesting debate. You ask the following question, sort of: "Unclear if the Sharpton/Waters initiative pre-primary did much damage to Joe- or was of much value to Ned."
In my opinion, this intitiative hurt Ned tremendously and is one of the reasons (along with the Waterbury comment) that Jepsen has been brought in to take over for Swan.
My insiders tell me that Joe was thinking about dropping out if he suffered a big primary loss (ie, 10 pts or more). Swan thought that such a defeat was achievable if he could move the african-american vote away from Lieberman and to Lamont. With his connections, he brought in Waters, who then brought in Jackson/Sharpton (although no one really has to call them, they just show up). The trio failed to move the african-american vote at all; more importantly, it moved many D primary voters (especially over 55 white voters) to Joe. This trio made Ned look like an extremist and cost him votes.
Now the question is: will the african-american and hispanic voters stay loyal to Joe and follow him down to the 5th line, or will they stay on the Democratic line (even though they may prefer Joe) because that is the line and party that they traditionally support? The answer could decide this election.
So the appearance of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson moved the over 55 dems to jump the Lamont ship and vote Lieberman? And the R's are the racist bunch? I think you dems need a third side of your mouths to speak out of. Maybe when every election goes your way, you can pass legislation top make it so -
bobby mcgee said: "God I feel so wacky whenever I think about the hundreds of people dying daily in Iraq."
How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?
"How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?"
Did you? Especially when Rumsfeld and Reagan-Bush were sanctioning the sale of chemicals and the construction of Petrochemical 1 by Bechtel?
Thats just a stupid comment... Bechtel wasn't building a petrochemical plant in Baghdad so Hussein could gas the kurds.. you're a fool. That just shows your ignorance. You liberals need to come up with new talking points. My guess is you were about 4 when that was happening. And the Middle East was amuch different animal 35 years ago, in fact your buddy Jimmy Carter had his hands full in 1979 and if he weren't such a wimp... nevermind.
anonymous said...How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?
bobby mcgee said: "Maybe Rummy should have been doing the thinking? He knew full well that Saddam had committed war crimes, but didn't seem to mind at the time."
So I guess you are not going to answer my question.
jusinh asked: "Did you?"
Yes, I did, and that is why I have supported, as a matter of US foreign policy, regime change and the removal of Saddam from power. The rest of your comment is idiotic and I need not respond.
Well, so why was Bechtel building it? To what end did Reagan-Bush sanction the sale of the chemicals? Of course, the Middle East was a different animal then. But to what relevance? So: why precisly am I ignorant? Why precisely was that a stupid comment?
More to the point, were you dismayed by Hussein's abuses when Reagan-Bush wwas supporting him? You never answered this question, but did some name-calling instead.
I can see you're upset, but maybe it's still possible to have a logical discussion?
I'm glad it bothered you then and that you've supported regime change. I think most people would also support regime change in Iraq, but have disagreed that the war has been the most effective way to stabilize the region and promote U.S. security.
Still not sure why my earlier comments were "idiotic."
The fact is that Iraq is no better today than it was under Saddam. His cronies have now been replaced by Shiite death squads. In the process thousands of Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis have died, terrorists numbers have exploded, and Iran has been emboldened and is now more powerful then ever.
I didn't and I still don't support a military regime change in Iraq.
This just off the wire: Lieberman challenges Lamont to a debate over Hurricane Katrina.
This from the AP story:
Independent U.S. Senate candidate Joe Lieberman, locked in a close re-election fight after losing the Democratic primary to an anti-war candidate, challenged Democrat Ned Lamont to a debate Friday over the government's response to Hurricane Katrina.
Lieberman, at a campaign stop to tout his role in securing federal transportation dollars, accused Lamont of distorting his record as the one-year anniversary of Katrina approached.
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"Any time Ned Lamont wants to debate me about what each of us did with regard to Katrina, I'm ready for the debate," Lieberman said.
Lieberman questioned what Lamont, a millionaire who made much of his fortune by founding a company that wires college campuses for cable television, did to contribute to disaster relief. "Where was Ned Lamont?" he said.
Not saying he's not flip-flopping, but your comment was simply ridiculous. Only someone as partisan as you could say something like that and actually believe it.
ACR , does your civic resume include that bit from your blog about how you think violence is an acceptable way to deal with people you deem to be bigots? Oh, by the way, John Brown, whom you adore, was executed for domestic terrorism.
Since I'm being talked about, I figured I'd wade into the debate...
I'd put money on our senate candidate in the 20th too; Chris Oliviera - he's easily got everyone else on state central by at least 20 IQ points and all he thinks about is politics all day everyday.
ACR - I appreciate your confidence in my chances and capabilities, but there are quite a few folks on State Central far more clever then I - and experience is worth more then 20 points of IQ. Let's not worry about who is more clever and work shoulder to shoulder for Republican victories across the state.
ACR: If Oliviera has everyone on state central by at least 20 IQ points, that doesn't say much for the rest of you guys including your Chairman Gallo although it may explain why you guys have been getting pounded in State elections.
Anonymous 9:51 - I don't agree with BR much, but I would encourage people taking cheap shots to have the courage to use their real names. I personally wish I had half of the experience and savy George and some of the more senior members of the SCC have.
While I will agree that we (Republicans) certainly could do some things better in running legislative elections, anyone who thinks that results of the last cycle (2004) didn't have more to do with national trends then local efforts isn't being intellectually honest.
What's more, anyone who is a political insider (as are most of the posters on this site) knows that the SCC has had precious little to do with the success or failure of state legislative races. State Central is far more responsible for the co-ordination of municipal races. A quick glance at the maps on the right will give you a sense of how we've done there...
"Odd, there's at least twice that on GOP state central alone that would love to dump Alan Gold and put Joe on our line.
That would accomplish 3 things.
1. Assure his victory over Lamont
2. Drive Rells numbers to over 70% at which point the coat tail affect kicks in netting us an additional half dozen house seats at least.
3. Drive the whacky left faction of the Democratic Party nuts."
HELLO!!!!!!!
Name one election since the end of the party lever where an R at the head of the ticket had any coattail effect on state senate or house races.
In fact, the Rs took the Senate in 94 when JGR won as his numbers were tanking at the end of the race and actually lost seats through his wildly popular days.
Anyone with real electoral experience knows that the biggest coattail on State Senate races is the Congressional Race and the House races are solely driven by local issues/personalities. Case in point: the only 3rd CD State Senate candidate who won in 2004 was Len Fasano---he was unopposed.
Cross-endorse if you must. But stop with the whacky babbling about coattails, please.
Crunchy Conservative said... It won't take much to push the Governor's margin of victory over 65%. A strong Lieberman showing would do that.
Thank you.
Enough people would stay on the line too which would push another half dozen or so marginal candidates in.
We seem to wind up too often on the wrong side of races that are decided by under 200 votes. Jodi at or over 70% would probably reverse that in more than a couple of cases.
34 comments:
Bipartisan? It was Tri-partisan, Republican, Democrat, and CT For Lieberman.
GC, I think there are some interesting numbers out there from after the primary that are worth discussing. Survey USA commissioned an "approval rating" poll on both Dodd and Joe.
Joe's 8/15 approval rating was 53/43, below Dodd's 56/37. Do note that the poll was weighted more heavily toward Dems, who tended the be the group weighing Joe down.
Interesting things to cull out as deviations from the mean:
African-American voters approve of Joe 60/31, Hispanics, 61/33. Unclear if the Sharpton/Waters initiative pre-primary did much damage to Joe- or was of much value to Ned.
Voters over 55 favor Joe 61/37. Those are the folks who vote.
Dems are 46/52, which pretty much reflects the primary vote. Indies 49/44. Reps 66/32.
How fascinating is it that african-americans, hispanic-americans and the older folks seem to like Joe more- as do Republicans as a block. These groups don't necessarily have a lot of overlap.
A very weird coalition is emerging behind Joe. If you have any interest in politics, this has to fascinate you.
More goodies:
No college: 62/35
Grad school: 53/33
Some college / college are closer to 50/50.
Those who regularly attend church:
57/38. Again, Sharpton's pulpit, to what impact?
One more- Fairfield County is the region bringing Joe's numbers down. New Haven is pulling him up.
I welcome your interpretations.
>>Joe Aresimowicz, running for re-election for state rep in Berlin & Southington
Not a prayer of keeping his seat.
All special interest money behind him and he's up against a guy that not only has never lost an election, but has never once not gotten the highest vote in town regardless of office.
Pocock's level of focus is beyond that of normal. He founded the number one police rifle team on the planet and has the awards to prove it.
His website's been up for months by the way.
Stick a fork in union flunky Aresimowicz, he's done.
MikeCT said...
18 Democratic Town Committee chairs and a State Central Committee member have signed a letter calling on Lieberman to withdraw "quickly and gracefully."
Odd, there's at least twice that on GOP state central alone that would love to dump Alan Gold and put Joe on our line.
That would accomplish 3 things.
1. Assure his victory over Lamont
2. Drive Rells numbers to over 70% at which point the coat tail affect kicks in netting us an additional half dozen house seats at least.
3. Drive the whacky left faction of the Democratic Party nuts.
All quite worthy goals from our perspective.
It's a very attractive idea to some of us.
MikeCT said... "Is it possible for a Republican to lose?
Somehow I don't see a senate seat in Alan Golds future.
We have a slew of candidates that are not getting off their respective behinds and doing anything; Pocock's not one of them neither is Sam Caliguri.
I'd put money on our senate candidate in the 20th too; Chris Oliviera - he's easily got everyone else on state central by at least 20 IQ points and all he thinks about is politics all day everyday.
Orchulli !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"I did say to Joe on the way in I wasn't going to hug him."
She shouldn't gamble with anyone but Schlesinger!
Wiki shows that Zoni has his site up as well: www.zoniforstatesenate.com.
Looks pretty good.
MikeCT- thats like the pot calling the kettle black.. come on now.
WOW! Zoni has the big union support. That has to be worth something.
ACR: If Oliviera has everyone on state central by at least 20 IQ points, that doesn't say much for the rest of you guys including your Chairman Gallo although it may explain why you guys have been getting pounded in State elections.
FGMS: Great post. Should make for a day of interesting debate. You ask the following question, sort of: "Unclear if the Sharpton/Waters initiative pre-primary did much damage to Joe- or was of much value to Ned."
In my opinion, this intitiative hurt Ned tremendously and is one of the reasons (along with the Waterbury comment) that Jepsen has been brought in to take over for Swan.
My insiders tell me that Joe was thinking about dropping out if he suffered a big primary loss (ie, 10 pts or more). Swan thought that such a defeat was achievable if he could move the african-american vote away from Lieberman and to Lamont. With his connections, he brought in Waters, who then brought in Jackson/Sharpton (although no one really has to call them, they just show up). The trio failed to move the african-american vote at all; more importantly, it moved many D primary voters (especially over 55 white voters) to Joe. This trio made Ned look like an extremist and cost him votes.
Now the question is: will the african-american and hispanic voters stay loyal to Joe and follow him down to the 5th line, or will they stay on the Democratic line (even though they may prefer Joe) because that is the line and party that they traditionally support? The answer could decide this election.
So the appearance of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson moved the over 55 dems to jump the Lamont ship and vote Lieberman? And the R's are the racist bunch? I think you dems need a third side of your mouths to speak out of. Maybe when every election goes your way, you can pass legislation top make it so -
"Drive the whacky left faction of the Democratic Party nuts."
God I feel so wacky whenever I think about the hundreds of people dying daily in Iraq.
bobby mcgee said: "God I feel so wacky whenever I think about the hundreds of people dying daily in Iraq."
How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?
Just curious.
Bill Mastrogiovanni, candidate in the 21st House District, has his website up and running.
Anonymous said...
"How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?"
Did you? Especially when Rumsfeld and Reagan-Bush were sanctioning the sale of chemicals and the construction of Petrochemical 1 by Bechtel?
Thats just a stupid comment... Bechtel wasn't building a petrochemical plant in Baghdad so Hussein could gas the kurds.. you're a fool. That just shows your ignorance. You liberals need to come up with new talking points. My guess is you were about 4 when that was happening. And the Middle East was amuch different animal 35 years ago, in fact your buddy Jimmy Carter had his hands full in 1979 and if he weren't such a wimp... nevermind.
anonymous said...How long have you been thinking about those dying in Iraq? Prior to the US invasion, Saddam was killing and torturing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including women and children. Did you ever think about them, or were their lives somehow less important?
Maybe Rummy should have been doing the thinking? He knew full well that Saddam had committed war crimes, but didn't seem to mind at the time.
bobby mcgee said: "Maybe Rummy should have been doing the thinking? He knew full well that Saddam had committed war crimes, but didn't seem to mind at the time."
So I guess you are not going to answer my question.
jusinh asked: "Did you?"
Yes, I did, and that is why I have supported, as a matter of US foreign policy, regime change and the removal of Saddam from power. The rest of your comment is idiotic and I need not respond.
Well, so why was Bechtel building it? To what end did Reagan-Bush sanction the sale of the chemicals? Of course, the Middle East was a different animal then. But to what relevance? So: why precisly am I ignorant? Why precisely was that a stupid comment?
More to the point, were you dismayed by Hussein's abuses when Reagan-Bush wwas supporting him? You never answered this question, but did some name-calling instead.
I can see you're upset, but maybe it's still possible to have a logical discussion?
Anonymous,
(We overlapped in comments.)
I'm glad it bothered you then and that you've supported regime change. I think most people would also support regime change in Iraq, but have disagreed that the war has been the most effective way to stabilize the region and promote U.S. security.
Still not sure why my earlier comments were "idiotic."
The fact is that Iraq is no better today than it was under Saddam. His cronies have now been replaced by Shiite death squads. In the process thousands of Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis have died, terrorists numbers have exploded, and Iran has been emboldened and is now more powerful then ever.
I didn't and I still don't support a military regime change in Iraq.
This just off the wire: Lieberman challenges Lamont to a debate over Hurricane Katrina.
This from the AP story:
Independent U.S. Senate candidate Joe Lieberman, locked in a close re-election fight after losing the Democratic primary to an anti-war candidate, challenged Democrat Ned Lamont to a debate Friday over the government's response to Hurricane Katrina.
Lieberman, at a campaign stop to tout his role in securing federal transportation dollars, accused Lamont of distorting his record as the one-year anniversary of Katrina approached.
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SPONSORED LINKS
"Any time Ned Lamont wants to debate me about what each of us did with regard to Katrina, I'm ready for the debate," Lieberman said.
Lieberman questioned what Lamont, a millionaire who made much of his fortune by founding a company that wires college campuses for cable television, did to contribute to disaster relief. "Where was Ned Lamont?" he said.
"Shays just ended Lieberman's chances for returning to DC."
ROFL, please...
Bobby McGee said... "
I didn't and I still don't support a military regime change in Iraq.
I know some Kurds that would just love to meet you.
MikeCT said... Differences between a me, a partisan, and ACR, a party hack:
I'd gladly put my civic resume up against yours any day of the week.
Drive a van load of orphans to camp lately?
psst, TrueBlue,,,
Not saying he's not flip-flopping, but your comment was simply ridiculous. Only someone as partisan as you could say something like that and actually believe it.
ACR , does your civic resume include that bit from your blog about how you think violence is an acceptable way to deal with people you deem to be bigots? Oh, by the way, John Brown, whom you adore, was executed for domestic terrorism.
>>John Brown, whom you
John Brown got it right.
You might check out the Torrington Town Seal.
I take it you're big fan of slavery.
If knocking off slave owners is treason, we should all be guilty.
Since I'm being talked about, I figured I'd wade into the debate...
I'd put money on our senate candidate in the 20th too; Chris Oliviera - he's easily got everyone else on state central by at least 20 IQ points and all he thinks about is politics all day everyday.
ACR - I appreciate your confidence in my chances and capabilities, but there are quite a few folks on State Central far more clever then I - and experience is worth more then 20 points of IQ. Let's not worry about who is more clever and work shoulder to shoulder for Republican victories across the state.
ACR: If Oliviera has everyone on state central by at least 20 IQ points, that doesn't say much for the rest of you guys including your Chairman Gallo although it may explain why you guys have been getting pounded in State elections.
Anonymous 9:51 - I don't agree with BR much, but I would encourage people taking cheap shots to have the courage to use their real names. I personally wish I had half of the experience and savy George and some of the more senior members of the SCC have.
While I will agree that we (Republicans) certainly could do some things better in running legislative elections, anyone who thinks that results of the last cycle (2004) didn't have more to do with national trends then local efforts isn't being intellectually honest.
What's more, anyone who is a political insider (as are most of the posters on this site) knows that the SCC has had precious little to do with the success or failure of state legislative races. State Central is far more responsible for the co-ordination of municipal races. A quick glance at the maps on the right will give you a sense of how we've done there...
Authentic at 10.57 said:
"Odd, there's at least twice that on GOP state central alone that would love to dump Alan Gold and put Joe on our line.
That would accomplish 3 things.
1. Assure his victory over Lamont
2. Drive Rells numbers to over 70% at which point the coat tail affect kicks in netting us an additional half dozen house seats at least.
3. Drive the whacky left faction of the Democratic Party nuts."
HELLO!!!!!!!
Name one election since the end of the party lever where an R at the head of the ticket had any coattail effect on state senate or house races.
In fact, the Rs took the Senate in 94 when JGR won as his numbers were tanking at the end of the race and actually lost seats through his wildly popular days.
Anyone with real electoral experience knows that the biggest coattail on State Senate races is the Congressional Race and the House races are solely driven by local issues/personalities. Case in point: the only 3rd CD State Senate candidate who won in 2004 was Len Fasano---he was unopposed.
Cross-endorse if you must. But stop with the whacky babbling about coattails, please.
Crunchy Conservative said...
It won't take much to push the Governor's margin of victory over 65%. A strong Lieberman showing would do that.
Thank you.
Enough people would stay on the line too which would push another half dozen or so marginal candidates in.
We seem to wind up too often on the wrong side of races that are decided by under 200 votes. Jodi at or over 70% would probably reverse that in more than a couple of cases.
Schlesinger or Lieberman are the best Candidates in the US Senate Race.
Lamont will fit in with Knibbs and Ferucci in the bottom tier finishing 3rd.
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