Thursday, August 10, 2006

U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Map

Here it is: the first map of the 2006 election season (click to enlarge):

There's a really interesting pattern here. Notice that most of the state is blue (Lamont). The dark blue (Lamont by more than 10%) is especially visible. This is because Lamont's strongest support came from smaller towns in Litchfield, Tolland and Windham Counties, like Salisbury, Cornwall, Stafford, Union, North Canaan, Scotland and others. Most of these towns, if you compare them to the 2004 presidential map on the sidebar, went for Bush or only barely for Kerry in 2004. They are conservative.

So why did they go for Lamont? For one, these towns have proportionally small but often much more liberal Democratic parties than the older, larger cities and suburbs where Lieberman was successful. They are not connected to the party machine, and they owe Joe Lieberman nothing. A lot of these Democrats are probably transplants from other areas.

The towns that went for Lieberman (purple) tended to be older and bigger. Aging industial areas like the Naugatuck Valley, Greater New Haven, New Britain and Enfield voted for Lieberman. There are more Democrats here, and they tend to be somewhat more conservative than their counterparts in the small towns.

The problem for Lamont is that there is no way he can replicate this feat in the general election. He won't win a third of the towns in November that he he won on Tuesday. Their overwhelming majority of Republicans and independents will vote for Lieberman or Schlesinger. Lamont needs support in the cities. Luckily, he actually did manage to win Hartford and New Haven, although by a small margin in each case, so he may get it. Lieberman, on the other hand, will hold on to his base in the Naugatuck Valley and the inner suburbs, and expand to the small towns.

This map was based on unofficial results as reported in the Courant.

I will try to have a map of the gubernatorial election tomorrow or the next day.

51 comments:

Anonymous said...

Genghis--

There will be no November. This is an anti-incumbent year, and the war, and his wankerishness will sink Joe amongst Independents.

CTOctaneBlue said...

GC- great map! What I see is that Lieberman was strong in the Naugatuck Valley, but relatively weak overall (not surprising since he lost by 10%). What I find most interesting is that Lamont actually won most of the big cities along the "I-91 corridor"- New Haven, Meriden, Middletown and Hartford- that were supposed to be Lieberman strongholds.

It's really remarkable how similar this map is to the 2004 presidential map... yikes!

Also- check out the wikipedia entry on "Joementum". With this primary loss, the term Joementum has definitely entered the lexicon meaning "perceived lack of potential for success of a campaign or endeavor"

Anonymous said...

Genghis, your analysis misses an important point. While the Democrats in the towns in the NW corner tend to be left of center, most of the voters in these towns are rock-ribbed Republicans and were ineligible to vote in the primary.

Anonymous said...

GC - Kudos! Great job with the map. There are a couple of surprises.

One interesting town will be Greenwich, Ned's hometown. He beat Lieberman there by a good margin, but the Democrats are the minority party by far. I suspect that Lieberman will do very well in the general. I have talked to many Republican friends who will vote for Lieberman. They will vote for him, not because he is a Republican - please, they know that he voted like a Democrat on most issues - but, rather, because they know that Alan Gold can't win and they do not want the Jessie Jackson, Al Sharpton, Maxine Waters, Howard Dean wing of the Democratic party to win. Also, the smaller towns in the Northwest corner and southwest corner, where the registered Democrats tend to be more liberal (they moved from NY), are Republican towns, for the most part. Ned will have a harder time winning those towns for the same reasons.

It is going to be interesting.

Anyone know how much money Lieberman has left?

ctkeith said...

My UPS guy stopped by today.He's a Reagan Republican and said He's voting for Lamont in November.

You've got a 100% record of Being Wrong on every political battle so far GC.Glad to see you analytical skills haven't improved.

Roy O might hire you yet.

Chris MC said...

GC -

Salisbury and Cornwall are not conservative.

North Canaan (known locally as Canaan for reasons that are rather mysterious to a flatlander) is more R than, er Canaan (which the cogniscenti will tell you is correctly referred to as Falls Village).

Mostly what you are observing there is the effect of incumbency in the referenced races.

Anonymous said...

Look at the map - Joe Lieberman won Bridgeport and Trumbull. Is anyone really surprised that Sen. Finch is going to continue to support Joe? Aren't those the Democrats that elected him and that he, in turn, should support? I say good for you Finch. Stick to your guns, and you will be just fine.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for providing such interesting information. It is nice to see facts rather than the back-forth arguing that occurred leading up to the primary.

Anonymous said...

Something I think you may be overlooking... There are several towns (New Britain, Windsor Locks, East Hartford, for example), that Lieberman took purely because of the union vote. The union people always vote for the party nominee, which in this case was Lieberman. Come November, that person will be Ned Lamont, and he will take all those votes.

Anonymous said...

I look forward to you Gov map. Looking at the Courant's maps, it looks like JDS and Lamont ran almost inversely, i.e., where Lamont won (Fairfield County, New York border towns, etc) Malloy either won or came closer. Where DeStefano won, Lieberman either won or came close (Nagautuck valley, 91 corridor). This will be fun to analyze for the next couple of weeks.

Anon in Suffield said...

Genghis- What happens next on your side of the river where your Mayor's Dem team supported Joe and Malloy?

Anonymous said...

Anon. 10:13 - While I will not pretend to know the typical union voter as well as others, I think that you are selling them way too short. Moreover, you are just plain wrong. Malloy was the party endorsed candidate, yet they endorsed and by all accounts voted mostly for DeStefano. I think that the unions supported Joe because he has supported them for 18 years in the US Senate. If anything, the union vote is loyal to its friends, and Joe is a long-time friend with a proven record. Ned is a relative unknown to them with no track record.

Genghis Conn said...

Anon in Suffield,

REALLY good question. There are a few prominent Dems in town who were big DeStefano supporters (I can think of at least one on the town council). So who knows?

Genghis Conn said...

Anon 10:20,

That's the effect of the unions, I'll bet.

The True Gentleman said...

GC, GREAT MAP!!! I'll say it here, because in another thread I said I admit when I am wrong, but I remember thinking Senator Lieberman would win the primary by around 5-8% = I was wrong and the map (and, more appropriately, Tuesday's results, prove it). But I see a lot of room for a different result in November based on the map's configuration...

Anonymous said...

Im sure Chris Mc,Pat Rice and Turfgrrl have changed their registration from democratic to connecticut for lieberman by now.

Just remember, when they select a winner...the real winner will be the other person in the race.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Interesting that Lamont took 19 of the 20 wealthiest towns in the state.

He is rather obviously the choice of the limousine liberal far left, and frankly from looking at the map, no one else.

Anonymous said...

CT Keith -- Cornwall is the ONLY obvious exception. Otherwise NW CT is solidly Republican. Unfortunately, there aren't that many liberal Philip Roth-types in Cornwall, the town is tiny.

GC -- thanks for the map -- it's terrific.

pluto101 said...

You know, I'm looking at the State Rep and 2004 Presidential maps on the right, and I'm wondering why everyone says the NW corner looks so Republican. There's a hell of alot of blue there.

Here's why Lamont has work to do, but can pull this thing off:

1)When I would make calls for Lamont, especially in the cities, at least 5 percent of the voters were "voting for the democrat". After I'd explain that there were two democrats on the ballot, they would vote for Joe, because that's the real Democrat. Now Ned's in the D column, and instantly gets these votes.

2) Ned now has the support of the entire Democratic establishment, bringing him respect and money. No more news pieces about Lamont putting money into his own race.

3) People don't vote for a loser, and as Lieberman campaigns and moves to the right, people will be scared off by his rabid Republicanism. His campaigning style during the primary was devoid of dignity, and if that trend contiues, people will see Lieberman for what he really is: a sore loser.

4) Lieberman is still a tool.

Anonymous said...

Authentic CT Republican, you must not have been looking very hard but by my count, Ned won about 107 other towns.

Anonymous said...

He is rather obviously the choice of the limousine liberal far left, and frankly from looking at the map, no one else.

Yes, all those limousine liberals living in Eastern Connecticut.

Anonymous said...

Tom Swan thinks the "Axis of Evil" is Route 8.

I'm glad the Naugatuck Valley is not treated like part of Connecticut by the Saab Socialists now in chrge of the Democratic party.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said... you must not have been looking very hard

Avg income in Lamont towns is over 10K more than those won by Joe.

Lamont appeals to the elite.

Anonymous said...

Note that Willington, yes Willington, went for Lamont.

Further proof that Willington is the epicenter of Ct politics.

Anonymous said...

It's pretty clear that Lamont is the candidate of single-issue anti-war voters and committed Bush haters, college professors and staff, those impressed by the theatrics of Jesse Jackson, Ralph Nader and Al Sharpton, and liberal Democrats who have fled the real give-and-take of life for the lily-white hills of Litchfield County. This was enough to win the primary, but it will never, ever be enough to win the general election unless he does just a wonderful job between now and November.

CTObserver said...

For a very good analysis of Lamont/Lieberman votes see Strategic Telemetry Report.

BRubenstein said...

I dont care what anyone says..how Willington goes..so goes Connecticut..

BRubenstein said...

Anon 9:02..Lamont is now the Dem Party candidate...he will be broadening his message to gain the support of independants and anti war Republicans ..your analysis is based on what evidence or facts?

Anonymous said...

http://www.rep-am.com/story.php?id=10980

Aldon Hynes said...

I concur with others here. Genghis has provided an interesting and userful analysis. I look forward to seeing his analysis of the Gubernatorial.

However, I'm even more interested in a look into the Lt. Governor's race. I don't think enough attention has been paid into why people split the ticket.

I've heard various theories. I am very curious about which one people here thinks makes the most sense:

1) People voted against Slifka because he is a DLCer. 2) People voted against him because of his ties to Sullivan. 3) People voted for Glassman because she is a woman. 4) People voted for Glassman because she did a better job of getting people to understand that they could split the ticket and she asked for their vote. 5) Audrey's revenge.

I would love to see a poll here. I would love to see a map of the Lt. Gov. race to see how it compares to the other maps.

Anonymous said...

BRube . . . Facts? You want facts? Do you really want me to set such a precedent for this board? I am simply using the results, especially as they show up on the map, and my political nose for Connecticut. Lamont won with a patchwork coalition of voters rather than a genuine, broad-based surge of support. The war is obviously a solid issue for him, but I'm not sure where he'll turn to expand his appeal and yet set himself apart from Lieberman.

Anonymous said...

Aldon -

Do you really think people voted for/against either Slifka or Glassman? People voted for Glassman because she's a woman, and the only woman on the ballot.

Ned Lamont does not have any REAL support, he has a bunch of people who voted against Joe, not for Ned.

Anonymous said...

I am not sure you can read much into Lamont's victory, other than that Democrat anti-war activists beat Joe by 4%. That's about it, and not much surprise given it was a Dem primary--in fact if you look at it that way, it is surprising Ned only won by 4%.

Ned has a tough slog ahead, though he has proven an able candidate.

GMR said...

Some various statistics about the Senate Race:

Lamont's margin of victory: 10,117 votes. 51.79% to 48.21%

Number of towns in Connecticut: 169

# towns carried by Lieberman: 44

# towns carried by Lamont: 125

# of towns with less than 500 voters: 43.

# of towns with less than 1,000 voters: 90

# of towns with over 5,000 voters: 10

# of towns with over 10,000 voters: 2 (New Haven [14,401] and Stamford [10,422]; West Hartford had 9,811)

Lamont's largest margin of victory: 1,342 votes (Greenwich, 68.29%). 14 towns went with a larger percentage for Lamont, but since they were smaller, the vote margin was less than that in Greenwich.

Lieberman's largest margin of victory: 1,423 votes (Waterbury, 60.14%) 7 towns went to Lieberman with a larger percentage.

Most votes for Lamont: New Haven (6,960 votes)

Most votes for Lieberman: New Haven (7,441 votes)

Largest percentage for Lamont: Cornwall (91.01%, 243-24)

Largest percentage for Lieberman: East Haven (65.37%, 1,223-648)

Number of Towns that went over 65.37% for Lamont: 23 (14,022 voters, including Canton, Greenwich and Mansfield).

# of towns where Lamont's and Lieberman's percentages were within 5% of the statewide figure: 66

# of towns where Lamont got over 55%: 86.

# of towns where Lieberman got over 55%: 21

# of towns where neither candidate cracked 55%: 62

# of towns with over a 1,000 vote margin: 3 (Greenwich for Lamont by 1,342; Waterbury for Lieberman by 1,423 and West Haven for Lieberman by 1,267).

Fonzdog said...

Mary being the only woman out of 6 people on the ballot definitely made a huge difference. DeStefano made a giant mistake when he shafted Blondin & her supporters.
Everyone knew what went on at the convention & what he did to her-word travels fast in our small state.
Slifka was just a pawn for Kevin Sullivan-no one outside of West Hartford even had any idea who he was-& he couldn't even carry his own hometown where he's MAYOR for DeStefano. Now a fine candidate like Mary is stuck between a rock & a hard place.

Anonymous said...

To follow Aldon's thinking, my bet is 6) people voted for Mary Glassman because she is Italian

Anonymous said...

Some of us voted against Slifka because he is DLC. Given a choice, I'll always vote against the Republican-lite crowd.

Aldon Hynes said...

Anon 12:10 Over 200,000 people pulled levers for either Glassman or Slifka. I do not know why people chose to pull one lever, the other, or none at all.

I don't know if Glassman's win was simply because 93% of the people that voted for Malloy also voted for Glassman, and only 68% of the people that voted for DeStefano also voted for Slifka, or to what extent there was split ticket voting.

I have spoken with people that voted for DeStefano and Glassman, so I know there was some split ticket voting.

I am very curious about how people really voted and why they voted that way. The people that I've spoken with who did split the ticket mentioned Glassman's campaigning, Glassman's gender, Slifka's DLC membership and Slifka's ties to Sullivan. However, it was a very small sample.

Anonymous said...

everyone on this blog is trapped in an echo chamber. If posters on here think that voters had 1) any idea of slifka's dlc leanings or 2) any idea whatsoever of who in the hell audrey is, they're either smoking too much or not enough. Glassman's gender carried the day, plain and simple. Audrey's revenge? Good lord. As if voters don't have better things to think about. get it together aldon.

Anonymous said...

Slifka lost Because of Audrey Blondin being passed over by DeStefano.

If DeStefano had chosen Audrey and Malloy had Mary Glassman this would have been completely different.

Litchfield County and the 5th CD got out there supported Malloy and Glassman.They didnt want Yabba Dabba Doo's(Sullivan) hand picked successor to be Slifka a Mayor who is little more than a ceremonial Mayor and a pawn for WH Dem Chairwoman Maureen Magnan who is very useless and should quit and find a career outside of politics.

Now DeStefano needs Litchfield COunty Can he get us back in the fold? Only time will tell.

Tom Swan Must resign as Lamont's Campaign Mgr He is a joke and embarassment He looked like a rapper gansta at Lamont's Victory Party I guess he has been hanging out with the Pablum Puking Crane Brothers too long.

Anonymous said...

any woman JDS selected would have fared better than slifka just because of being a woman.

Anonymous said...

anon 2:31

I guess that explains the hundreds of protesters at polling locations across the state with the "where's audrey?" signs. She clearly is at the helm of a political movement set to take the state by storm.

Anonymous said...

We need a candidate from Litchfield County and Audrey has worked very hard for us at DSCC and quite frankly deserves the name recognition.

I just dont understand why some of you bristle when her name is mentioned for Political office.

There are a lot of good people in Litchfield County who never make it to the light of day Because of places and sleazeoids like West Hartford who dont want to see anyone from this part of the state succeed.

I think Mary Glassman's win is partially due to Audrey and people being annoyed with The Scotty too Hotty Choice by DeStefano.

Litchfield County will be taking more seriously from now on and when we send Andrew Roraback into retirement and elect Matthew Brennan as our new State Senator.

The Democrats in Litchfield County will be taken more seriously..As The Carpenter's Song said"We've only just begun"

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:14 Audrey Blondin is seen by many of us in the party as the female equivalent to Jack Orchulli...an empty suit..

Furthermore..she supported Lieberman in his Presidential run and in the recent primary against Lamont..If Lamont wins her future is nowhere..and probably no where anyway.

Additionally she is very very pro-iraq war and would turn off our party.

Aldon Hynes said...

anon(2:09) I am simply reporting what I am hearing. It is from sources other than those that post on CLP. I try not to pass judgement on these sources. Instead, I seek to encourage people to present their views in a friendly manner. I wish others would do the same.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:09..Its a pity that when Aldon posted a comment to you he didnt disclose that he was a paid JDS staff and is one for Lamont..I dont know of any race in which he has been involved that he hasnt taken a pay check from.

Anonymous said...

Anon. 3:14 said: "Litchfield County will be taking more seriously from now on and when we send Andrew Roraback into retirement and elect Matthew Brennan as our new State Senator."

LMAO ... LMAO ... LMAO ... LMAO

Really, thank for the humor. Great post Mr. Brennan!

Care to make a wager?

Anonymous said...

ANON 1114 AM-Once again you are misinformed and just assume someone put up a post. I am a supporter of Matthew Brennan and you need to do your homework rather than make assumptions.

I dont bet on anything.Have a nice day

Anonymous said...

DeStefano needs to kiss butt in Litchfield County to win He has angered a lot of people and needs to step up to the plate or the votes go to Jodi Rell Because there are a lot of Democrats who may withhold support due to the convention antics of picking Slifka over Blondin.

Ned needs help from GOP and Conservative Dems which will not happen. A lot of Litchfield County Dems like Lieberman and are not happy with this support Lamont or else attitude that the liberals are forcing down everyone's throat.

This is why Joe will be re-elected and Ned goes back to his media empire,his millions and volunteer teaching and whatever else he wants to do Post US Senate race Loss.

Anonymous said...

Great maps (all of them.

The analysis is very good too. Ned is not going to carry the NW towns like he did in the primary. He may win more than we think, because there seem to many anti-war Republicans out there who may vote for him. Add that to the number of Republicans that are fed up with Bush (and there are more of them that I thought there were) and its significant. That said: he won't carry as many nor will the ones he carries be at the margin he carried in the primary. For example while Ned may win Greenwich but I don't see him winning Darien and New Canaan.

Ned will need help in the cities. The strategy will need to change. He needs to target all parts of Connecticut. He will need to court small city and close-in suburbs. Its not out of the realm of possiblity, but I agree it will require some refining of the message and strategy.

By the way: if people think this is just limousine liberals look at the map and pay attention. Lamont won Danbury, Meriden, Hartford - you couldn't fill one limousine combined.

The turnout should tell you that it turned out to be far more than limousine liberals that put Lamont over the top. Turnout over 40% means that Lamont received support from across the spectrum - liberals, yellow dogs, causual voters and new voters.

BTW: Jackson and Sharpton helped him in a few big cities.(i.e. Lamont carried the African American districts in Bridgeport) Though now that the primary is done: they need to go home - they do NOT help in a general election!

Anonymous said...

Let Left Said Ned Continue to have Sharpton, Jackson, Soros and Weicker bang the drums for Neddy Boy It will just make Senator Lieberman's path even as an Independent a lot smoother.

Maybe these 4 want exclusive memberships in The Ned Lamont Lovefest Fan Club But the voters will eventually catch up and the lovefest with two ex Presidential Candidates,a guy who left CT for NY State Because he was denied a Zoning Permit and the guy who put a State income tax on all of us after he said he would not.

What reliable sources(yeah right) and reason not to vote for Ned Lamont but to vote for Joe Lieberman.