Friday, August 04, 2006

Campaigns Entering Final Weekend

The primary campaign is very nearly over. There will be a final flurry of campaigning this weekend and Monday all across the state (Malloy, for example, will be in Enfield tonight at the Italian Festival), and then Tuesday arrives.

What then?

Lamont Victorious

At this point, expectations are that Lamont will win, and that he will win by a considerable margin. But even a close victory will be enough, obviously, and any victory will look to everyone like David taking out an aging Goliath.

What happens if and when Lamont wins?

First, the liberal blogosphere will explode. This is a campaign that has been bound up with the progressive netroots in a way that no other campaign ever has--and for the first time, a high-profile candidate that they support will actually win. That's going to change their perception of their own influence, and also the way blogs and bloggers are perceived by campaigns and the media. I suspect that the change won't all be good. Still, this campaign will be studied for years as the one in which blogs and other new media were used most effectively. Personally, I'm hoping we'll all get book deals (publishers--call me!).

Secondly, and more immediately, the Lieberman campaign will be forced to drop a huge stack of petitions off at Susan Bysiewicz's office, and hope that they have enough to qualify for the ballot. They probably will. But it's going to be humiliating.

Third, Lieberman's campaign staff is going to undergo a radical change. Morale isn't so great, over there. Those staff who aren't fired may simply melt away when faced with the prospect of running against the Democratic nominee. Lieberman will be the de facto Republican candidate (Schlesinger is a non-entity at this point), and I suspect that a lot of his new staff will have ties to the GOP.

Lastly, the Lamont campaign is going to have to figure out how to operate for the general election. It's one thing to get Democrats excited. It's another to convince skeptical independents to vote for you.

The Mayors McCheese

There will be one fewer mayor in the gubernatorial campaign after Tuesday. Which of the two it will be is up in the air. Neither campaign, in more than two years of trying, has managed to arouse much in the way of public interest. This is why there's a dead heat--neither candidate has managed to define himself in a way that attracts a big group of voters. In that respect, both campaigns are failures. The distraction of the Lamont campaign is no excuse for their own shortcomings and lack of clear definition. A smart campaign would have latched on to Lamont's rising star, but both stayed away.

At this point, both campaigns have gone negative: perhaps in the hopes that, in the absence of anything to vote for, Democrats will vote against their opponent. Malloy's "dress" ad was a strange, if effective, new low. If Malloy wins, political observers will remember that ad.

Whoever does finally emerge will be wounded and broke from the primary, and in terrible shape to face a popular incumbent. That *clink* you just heard was champagne glasses tapping together at Rell HQ.

In the meantime, there's plenty of campaigning left to do as the four candidates try to meet as many voters as possible--before Tuesday erases at least one of them.

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

In the Q-poll press conference they said there would be a final poll on Monday.

Also said he'd never seen anything like the Lamont race - from no name recognition to pulling ahead.

Chris MC said...

BRubenstein said...
[snip]
...for 2 years in the race [JDS] hasn't yet thought of a way to [bring Rell's popularity numbers down] and I doubt he will in the remaining few months.
10:51 AM, July 20, 2006


Rather than vote to lose the General Election, Democrats are choosing Malloy, more with each passing day.

Malloy continues to confound the conventional wisdom, and will do so again on Tuesday.

And then, Rell is going down.

cgg said...

I think the Kiss float would make a fun book cover myself.

Anonymous said...

GC said: "Lieberman will be the de facto Republican candidate (Schlesinger is a non-entity at this point), and I suspect that a lot of his new staff will have ties to the GOP."

I think you are correct. In fact, Leberman's chances of winning the general election are aided by Mr. Gold's pathetic candidacy. If he drops out and a real R candidate gets in, then Lamont gets another boost and would be the favorite to win.

One last point: the Lamont campaign has certainly been helped by consultants with ties to the GOP. Former GOP Chairman Tom D'Amore has greatly helped Lamont - he got him ad man Bill Hillsman.

Anonymous said...

I think something interesting to watch will be what comes of the blogosphere as the MSM starts covering the political races. I think the influence of the blogs has been made possible by the lack of coverage, so far, by the MSM. A challenge will be to see how much influence the blogs continue to have after the primaries.

ctkeith said...

I love you GC,

Whenever I want to know the conventional wisdom I just read your writing.

You've not been right on anything yet and I don't expect almost anything in this post(except a Lamont Win) to happen but at least I know what the CW is now.LOL

Thanks

Bobby McGee said...

If Lamont wins (which isn't close to a sure thing) I think the Makos' head will explode. The collective ego of the blogosphere is going to expand so rapidly a lot of bad things are going to happan.

And that's before Lamont's even won an election (beating Lieberman in the primary barely counts at this point).

disgruntled_republican said...

CTKEITH-

I think that is the closest I have ever seen you come to saying something nice. You feeling OK?

bluecoat said...

Just look at what Malloy has done in Stamford; he has a plan to do it all over CT;'Overload was too great'
and Blackout pulls plug on restaurants' big day

Yeah, I know it's all DPUC's fault; Malloy has been trying to fix the power before he promotes anymore overdevelopment on top of I-95. We had a slick talking dufus for Governor in John Rowland; we don't need another one.

Chris MC said...

Golf bluecoat. Go get the sticks and head over to the links. [chuckling]

Anonymous said...

The thing that steams me is how Democrats give pass after pass to Rell. Whomever the nominee is, they are going to have an almost insurmountable amount of ground to cover in three short months, both in the political and financial game.

This has single-handedly kept the Rell campaign alfoat! They can't raise money in Fairfield County (or anyplace else, really) and the staff is totally comprised of boobs! The campaign manager has no experience in a statewide race; their field people (if anyone has seen them) is filled with two, no maybe three, collective brain cells; and there's really no grassroots organization to speak of! Nobody is rabidly pro-Jodi. She's just better than the alternative.

If the Dems could ever play it right, they could make her and her weak campaign fold just like good ol' Joe's.

bluecoat said...

from today's NYT:In Race, Bloggers Throw Curves and Spitballs and more on how well Malloy's plan in the city that works, Dan wants to do this all over Connecticut:An Explosion in the Grid Cuts Power in Stamford

Chris MC said...

We will A1:14. I promise.

Right now, we have to win on Tuesday.

And then, Rell is going down.

CTRevolution said...

I've seen Jodi Rell's field twice in New Haven in the last week, she must know who her real competitor is.

Her numbers will drop substantially after DeStefano beats Malloy by 10-20 % and starts going after her on her failed leadership of CT.

Anonymous said...

Bluecoat are you serious? Dan Malloy has zero control over the power problems and you know that. You used to make great points on here but lately it's just nonsense mudslinging.

Anonymous said...

A Washington Post/Gallup poll just came out showing... shockingly... that Lieberman has lost popularity nationwide among Democrats. Out of curiosity, what propelled Gallup to poll people nationwide? Were they under the illusion that he was planning another Presidential run? It seems like the dumbest poll idea I've ever heard of.

Chris MC said...

CTR, you're wasting your time with that weak junk. NOBODY thinks that Rell is concerned about a DeStefano candidacy. Nobody.

CTRevolution said...

Haha, yeah ChrisMC, except for Rell's campaign who keeps sending field staff to New Haven events. DeStefano is a much better challenger to Malloy who barely won reelection in his town. DeStefano will beat Malloy by 10-20% and then beat Rell in the fall. We need a real progressive who stands up for working people, not an estate tax cutting, Karl Rove wannabe, empty campaign promise(See 1000 new cops or his health care plan) running Malloy. DeStefano wins big on Tuesday, watch out ChrisMC, it's coming.

Janet said...

Very well-written analysis, Ghengis.

I agree with lots of what you said, especially in terms of the Lamont campaign.

I think Malloy is going to end up pulling ahead. The voters will see that he's the better choice.

Anonymous said...

You bloggers need to be talking to each other in a civil tone.Especially The Democrats If you support Lamont that's fine But stop being so attack dog and nasty to your other fellow Democrats.If you dont agree thats fine But remember if you keep up the attack the less likely they will support your candidate If he wins on Primary Day.

If you want people to support your candidate after the primary you need to tone it down. This isnt meant for everybody there are just a few of the regular antagonists that this message is aimed at here in this blog and they know who they are and I will no longer give them any name recognition.

Everyone vote on Tuesday...Have a great weekend and enjoy the last few days and primary day/night.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

You guys, really, thanks, I needed a good laugh ... But here's something even funnier: Watch this registered Democrat explain to Channel 3 why she has no use for either one of the twits you guys are spending so much time promoting. (The key quote is at 1:30 into the story.)

kerryguy said...

I think if Lamont wins, we may finally see some of the electable people stuck in lower positions challenge the old guard pols that aren't going anywhere. For far too long, good candidates have sat idly by, biding their time and waiting for something to break - for an old timer to quit, die or grow a pair and run in a competitive race for higher office. Lamont shows that no one nneds to fear running against a long time incumbent.

You don't think Dick Bumenthal wanted that Senate seat? How do you think he feels, watching some guy who was unknown six months ago about to unseat a three term senator/former VP candidate?

Another thread here discusses what an unmitigated disaster Susan Bysiewicz has been - so get another D to run.

If you want to run for an office, you need to get off your asses and run. Waiting your turn and respecting the old guard is a sure way to be passed by when more aggressive or principled outsiders now see they can get elected. With public financing (maybe) on the horizon, maybe we can finally knock some of the dead weight out of CT politics.

bluecoat said...

2:03; Malloy overdevloped Stamford - adequate infrastructure to support your municipality -or state - is absolutley a responsibility of the chief executive and the legislature; look at what is going on in NYC with oversight of ConEd by the City Council and the mayor's office.

And did anybody notice that the New Haven Register endorsed JDS not unexpectedly.

Anonymous said...

Quinnipiac Polls are worthless and tainted.

The only poll that counts is primary day.

Anonymous said...

Kerryguy-- it shows that if you are very wealthy you can shake the old guard. Without real campaign finance reform, it is still an incumbent or rich person's game.

CTKnows said...

Bluecoat,
Please site one example of of a political leader who has shunned development because of inadequte infrastructure

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

CTRevolution said... ....
Rell's campaign who keeps sending field staff to New Haven events.


Jodi has a LARGE field campaign staff; they are everywhere at once.

Anonymous said...

Send The Kiss Float to Baghdad !!!!! and blow it to bits YEEHAW!!!!!

MikeCT said...

The LieberBrats are at it again, trying to disrupt a Lamont event and prevent supporters from seeing and hearing him. Pathetic.

Anonymous said...

ADNR--I have to tell you, WFSB is doing a GREAT job of hiring good 'talent'--Katy Zachry, Jamie Roth--serious on screen talent.

Duby McDowell is WFSB's political analyst??? Did Global Strategy Group let her go once they saw that Roy was going to lose Lieberman, Malloy and Farrell? Couldn't guarantee her paycheck, I guess. Or was this Duby's big goal--to switch from WVIT to WFSB. Plus, give us something novel--I could have had the town drunk give a better analysis than she did.

Authentic CT Rep--I understand you feel the need to defend Rell's group, but pulleez. If the only place folks who post here have seen Rell's folks is in New Haven, then they really are a rudderless ship. Twenty bucks says Rell doesn't break 35% in New Haven. That campaign can be described as "caretaker" at best, much like Jodi's governorship. The only person in the party who is worth a lick is Gallo, and I hope they are taking his advice more than her "campaign manager's" or the venerable chief of staff, Ms. Moody. When are they reopening that hearing again?

Anonymous said...

re: kerryguy - Your comment is on the money. It's time for some more shakeups so we can get some new blood talent moving up through the ranks (and Rosa and Dick SHOULD be kicking themselves for being part of a boring status quo Dem team).

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:54,

Duby McDowell is WFSB's political analyst???

I hadn't heard this - does this mean she is a reporter? Or she just shows up occasionally to "analyze"? Does this mean she is not with GSG, or just that she has a huge conflict of interest? She's still on their staff page.

Anonymous said...

pretty shady website:

http://www.lhsassociates.com/Merchant2/merchant.mv?

Anonymous said...

Annon 10:54 I can see your dislike for Lisa and Kevin. Last I checked, the Governor is doing quite well but I'm sure they appreciate your advice. Right now you could say the train is on the track so why not just play us a nice song on your Harmonica and leave the politics to the people who really want to win.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for trying to ID me as a "Harmonica" playing political person. I'm sure that person would take offense.

I encourage you to continue basking in Rell's high approval ratings--I think we can all agree that they existed before the campaign did, and have been heading south since the campaign began.

But continue believing that Rell can't lose--that's usually the first thing that has to happen for an upset to occur. Again--see Joe Lieberman.

Anonymous said...

Ha ha your boy didn't win by much.. His shelf life is measured in days and weeks not months or years.. Drink and take drugs...thats how you all celebrate anyway..now while you can because you are in for a real dissapointment in Nov..