Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Everything Must Be Right in the World

The war in Iraq must have ended peacefully and with minimal loss of life. Ditto Afghanistan - the Taliban must have been driven out. Lebanon must have retreated from the brink of WW III or Armageddon (depending on who you ask). I must have dreamed paying $48 to fill a 15 gallon tank this morning - the energy dependence crisis must have been averted. I guess my property taxes didn't really increase drastically this year and the local school boards must be getting all the money they need to fund the mandates created by NCLB. Medicare probably isn't on the verge of running out of money and the debt must have been eradicated.

My evidence for this?

The (Republican) White House had the time and inclination to issue a press release blasting Connecticut Democrats for rejecting Senator Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary:

he White House accused the Democratic Party on Wednesday of catering to the extreme left after Connecticut voters defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman in a primary election over his support of the Iraq war.
...
"I think instead it's a defining moment for the Democratic Party whose national leaders now have made it clear that if you disagree with the extreme left in their party, they're going to come after you," [Tony Snow] said.


Forget for a second the absurdity of the quoted line (national leaders of the Democratic Party didn't "come after" Senator Lieberman until he declared his willingness to disregard the will of Connecticut Democrats and the "extreme left" seems to agree with 60% of America on the defining issue of the campaign). I'm just glad that they managed to get everything done above "comment on the Connecticut primary" on the old To-Do list...

Update: From Ken Krayeske in the comments:

Today's White House Press Briefing:

One of the interesting things that happened in this Connecticut race, by the way, was there appeared to be some buyer's remorse as election day approached. Maybe the polls were rigged; maybe the polls were bad. But at least the lead that Mr. Lamont had went from 13 points to six to four on election day. That indicates that even in a fairly liberal state like Connecticut, where this is the one issue, where you had a well-financed candidate who had more money than the incumbent, that you still had a 50-50 split more or less within the Democratic Party on this issue.


Ken hits both points right on target:

1. Tony Snow is either claiming that the drop in Lamont's support in the Q-Poll from 13 to 6 in a week represents buyer's remorse or that the Q-Poll is rigged. Either view is utterly unsupported by evidence (the Q-Poll is rigged? Projection much? Also, rarely will campaigns rig a poll so that it appears that they lost half their support in a week. Its absurd on its face.). The evidence supports the proposition that the 13 point poll is an outlier. The 6 point poll is more reflective of what the Lamont campaign's internals showed (no link, it was told to me verbally).

2. While Lamont was well-financed for a challenger of an 18 year incumbent in a primary, to say that he had more money than Lieberman is laughable. As of about a week before the primary (final numbers are not yet available), Lieberman had out raised Lamont by a factor of 2-1. By Tony Snow's standards, I have more money than Bill Gates. If he says it from the podium, it must be true.

23 comments:

ken krayeske said...

This is worth a wtf.
Tony Snow in today's White House Press Briefing, and the last graf is the one worth reading:
MR. SNOW: I don't think so. I mean, if you take a look at the midterms, again, every candidate is going to tell you that his or her campaign is a local campaign, and quite often local issues are going to condition them.

There has been some attempt on the part, again -- a lot of Democratic leadership getting involved in this Connecticut race, trying to nationalize around one issue. That is obviously a key issue; but, on the other hand, everybody has known all along that that's a key issue. The President's view has always been that good policy is good politics. We are sticking with the positions we have taken. We think that they're the right positions to take.

One of the interesting things that happened in this Connecticut race, by the way, was there appeared to be some buyer's remorse as election day approached. Maybe the polls were rigged; maybe the polls were bad. But at least the lead that Mr. Lamont had went from 13 points to six to four on election day. That indicates that even in a fairly liberal state like Connecticut, where this is the one issue, where you had a well-financed candidate who had more money than the incumbent, that you still had a 50-50 split more or less within the Democratic Party on this issue.

Two things:
A) he's claiming that the Quinnipiac polls are rigged. This coming from someone whose boss has stolen two elections from the American people.
B) he's lying through his teeth - a well-financed candidate who had more money than the incumbent? Ned had a little under $4 million. Joe had $10 million. Do these people ever stop lying?

Anonymous said...

Sen. Dodd had the best analysis of last night's election. He basically said it wasn't about Joe or Ned, but about the people they represent and what they want. We don't want no Joe no mo.

Anonymous said...

I see no effort on the part of folks who ought to be jubilant to fill in your favorite empty suit

Wolcottboy said...

That's not an accurate statement. He's not accusing anyone of rigging the polls, but simply speculating. Perhaps the polls were innacurate? Perhaps the sample was just slightly skewed from the actual vote.

Don't parse the details.

The reality is that Snow is correct: "there appeared to be some buyer's remorse... the lead went from 13 points to six to four on election day."

The news media documented this, Lieberman was approached by many people who were originally going to vote for Lamont, but thought better of it.

Anonymous said...

CBS exit polls say late deciders broke big for Lieberman...too bad the surfer left him in such a big hole it wasnt enough

BRubenstein said...

Has anyone seen Chris Mc...Turfgrrl and Patricia Rice? Word has it that they have switched parties.

Anonymous said...

they are all at the Round Hill Club trying to get Ned's lapsed membership

DeanFan84 said...

Chris Mc said he would go away, (until next cycle), if both of his candidates tanked.

Malloy lost, thank God, so we are half-way to a nice fall. However, I suspect Chris Mc will come back as a CTforLieberman person.

In any case, as long as he isn't in either of my camps, I am happy. And is there any truth to the rumor he got thrown off his town's DTC?

Chris MC said...

LOL DF84. Back to your usual nonsense I see.

Note, incidentally, Newtown's vote totals:
Malloy: 893
DeStefano: 758
Lieberman: 776
Lamont: 1,066

Brucie boy. NIIIIICE pre-game. LMAO.

Sean said...

Gabe-

Regarding your point #2:

Tony Snow said Lamont is well-financed. Absolutely. Nobody will deny that. He raised an unbelievable amount of money, especially given his position taking on an incumbent.

Next, he said "who had more money than the incumbent." This is true. Lamont has about 300 million dollars, far more than Lieberman. Snow never said that Lamont raised more and you are attacking something that he never said.

I will admit that Tony Snow was rather vague. But he was not wrong. You are wrong to oppugn him from something he never said, and you are looking for things to criticize to the point where you need to make things up to get your message across. Snow didn't even insinuate that Lamont raised more that Lieberman; that would be an incorrect reading of his statement.

Also, I understand that your comment about Bill Gates was meant to be hyperbole, but it makes you look like a fool. You cite the ratio 2:1, then use it to compare yourself to Bill Gates, who has 60 billion dollars. Do you have 30 billion dollar? You example is completely inane and reflect poorly on you as a writer, blogger, and analyst.

Gabe said...

Wolcott Boy - As I stated above, there is evidence that the 13 point poll is an outlier. There is no evidence that something was fishy with the poll. Doesn't stop Tony Snow though.

Gabe said...

Snow didn't even insinuate that Lamont raised more that Lieberman; that would be an incorrect reading of his statement.

where you had a well-financed candidate who had more money than the incumbent

Emphasis mine. So your argument was that he was actually talking about the T-Bills that Lamont owned when he used those words in the same sentence?

I understand that your comment about Bill Gates was meant to be hyperbole

Well, clearly not.

The inanity of your comment doesn't reflect well on you...

Patricia Rice said...

Do you miss me Bruce? I'm not changing party’s but if I would consider it if I could do so only in Connecticut.

Unlike you, I will support the better candidate. While I am a proud Democrat that doesn't mean that I can't see beyond my party I.D.

I am a good American first and a Democrat second and intelligent enough to support the better candidate. I believe that Millionaire Ned is wrong for this country and will support the better candidate regardless of his or her party.

Joe will have a big win in November when everyone has a chance to participate. Unfortunately, Ned’s primary win is going to divide the Democratic party. The GOP is celebrating and ready to retain and pick up seats at all levels in our state. I did warn of this prior to our primary but the far left had tunnel vision and so much hatred that they didn’t care.

Can you tell me any non-Democrats you will support in the November elections or do you only support party labels?

bluecoat said...

Unfortunately, Ned’s primary win is going to divide the Democratic party.

How dare Lamont follow the rules of the democracy where majority rules!!!!

BRubenstein said...

Pat Rice...YOUR candidate has split the party..Joementum should have been man enough to accept the results...the people have spoken and he has been found to be not what the majority wants.

Pat..sorry, but i only support democrats..

As you wave goodbye to the Democratic Party...remember us fondly.

The True Gentleman said...

BR, I expect better from you -- you guys really have to stop saying the people have spoken. A small portion of the people have not spoken yet...Senator Lieberman has every right to run as an independent...some Dems will vote for him still...most will not...some Reps will for him...many will not...come on, now...Lamont supporters should be focusing on getting out his overall message beyond the Iraq War issue rather than bickering over whether Senator Lieberman should stay in the race.

The True Gentleman said...

Correction: A large portion of the people have not spoken yet...

bluecoat said...

All of the Democrats who wanted to speak have spoken and the Democratic party rules by a majority. We are trying to get the Iraqi people to understand the concept of majority rules but whereas people in the US mostly fight back with words and lawsuits, the Iraqis often fight back with violence.

BRubenstein said...

TTG...what i meant is..my party has spoken..a party Joe says he loves and respects...toward that end he should have respected us and adhered to the results instead of this indy run....but ah well...its all about him.

True Gentleman,Joe's indy run i think will benefit the Republican congressional folks alot..and will tamp down the dem vote..

Anonymous said...

i agree completely with sean above. gabe did you even read his post? wtf are you talking about? t-bills? what? you are either a complete idiot (sorry but true) or you misread his post. he is dead on. you are coming across as an idiot (i'm not saying you are one...just that is the image that is coming across).

Anonymous said...

I am a liberal and I am very disappointed with Gabe and I actually agree with Sean. Gabe, you post did make you look like an idiot. You were uninformed, ignorant, and I am sorry that I associate myself in the same party as you. I even voted for Lamont, but if you are a typical supporter, I will have to change my mind because I don't want to be associated with such morons.

Tom H said...

I agree with the two anonymous comments above. Gabe is not very smart and it shows sometimes in his blog posts.

Gabe said...

Thanks Guys!