Wednesday, August 30, 2006

General Assembly 2006: Races to Watch (August 30th)

This is an updated list of legislative races worth watching this fall. This post is a little different from previous watch lists: as I'll be linking directly to the district page in the 2006 Election wiki. From there, feel free to make changes and updates as you will. The password is election.

Races to Watch: State Senate

Senate District 7 - East Granby, Enfield, Granby, Somers, Suffield, Windsor (part), Windsor Locks
Kissel (R) and Kiner (D) face off again in what is sure to be a tight race.

Senate District 9 - Newington, Wethersfield, Cromwell, Middletown (part), Rocky Hill
There's a lot of interest in this race. The district leans Democratic.

Senate District 12 - Branford, Durham, Guilford, Killingworth, Madison, N. Branford
Hannon (R) is running a spirited race against Sen. Meyer (D) so far.

Senate District 14 - Milford, Orange, West Haven (part)
Barbara Lisman (R) is facing first-term Sen. Gayle Slossberg (D)

Senate District 16 - Cheshire (part), Southington, Waterbury (part), Wolcott
Caliguiri (R) and Zoni (D) are both raising a ton of money, although Caliguiri is doing much better so far.

Senate District 18 - Griswold, Groton, N. Stonington, Plainfield, Preston, Sterling, Stonington, Voluntown
Andy Maynard (D) and Lenny Winkler (R) are competing for an open seat vacated by Sen. Cathy Cook (R).

Senate District 20 - East Lyme, Montville (part), New London, Old Lyme, Old Saybrook (part), Salem, Waterford
Chris Oliviera (R) is running strongly against Sen. Stillman (D).

Senate District 21 - Monroe (part), Seymour (part), Shelton, Stratford (part)
Jones (D) and Debicella (R) are competing for outgoing Sen. "Doc" Gunther's (R) seat.

Senate District 22 - Bridgeport (part), Monroe, Trumbull (part)
Sen. Finch (D) faces a challenge from Robert Russo (R).

Senate District 31 - Bristol, Harwinton (part), Plainville, Plymouth
Beverly Bobroske (R) has raised a lot of money in her campaign against Sen. Tom Colapietro (D).

Races to Watch: State House of Representatives

House District 2 - Bethel (part), Danbury (part), Redding (part)
This district saw one of the closest races of 2004.

House District 19 - Avon (part), Farmington (part), West Hartford (part)
Bob Farr's district. Beth Bye (D) looks strong here.

House District 30 - Berlin (part), Southington (part)
Edward Pocock (R) is facing Rep. Joe Aresimowicz (D).

House District 37 - East Lyme, Salem
Paul Formica (R) is doing well raising money against Rep. Jutila (D).

House District 38 - Montville (part), Waterford
Brian Vachris (R) is challenging Rep. Ritter (D), in what should be an aggressive campaign from both sides.

House District 50 - Brooklyn, Eastford, Hampton, Pomfret, Woodstock
Rep. Alberts (R) won his seat in 2004 by only 48 votes (0.44%). He is facing Sherri Vogt (D).

House District 58 - Enfield (part)
Sue Lavelli-Hozempa (R) has reportedly been working hard in her campaign against entrenched Rep. Kathy Tallarita (D). Might be worth watching.

House District 59 - Enfield (part)
In my home district, Rep. Steve Jarmoc's wife Karen Jarmoc (D) is running for his seat as he leaves the field. This is reportedly causing some grumbling, and may benefit challenger Charles Woods (R).

House District 61 - East Granby (part), Suffield, Windsor (part)
Derek Donnelly (D) is running a very strong race against longtime incumbent Ruth Fahrbach (R).

House District 79 - Bristol (part)
This race is actually a lot less interesting now that the primary is over.

House District 86 - East Haven (part), North Branford, Wallingford (part)
Vincent J. Candelora (R) seems to be doing well against Ashley Clow Joiner (D) in this race for GOP leader Robert Ward's old seat.

House District 100 - Durham, Middlefield, Middletown (part)
This district was pretty close (under 3%) in 2004, but things may be different this year.

House District 101 - Guilford (part), Madison
First term Rep. Deborah Heinrich (D) may face a tough fight from Noreen Kokoruda (R) in a heavily Republican area.

House District 104 - Ansonia (part), Derby (part)
J.R. Romano (R) is doing well raising funds against Rep. Linda Gentile (D).

House District 120 - Stratford (part)
Democrat Dave Mooney has raised a lot more money than his opponent Rep. John Harkins (R). One to watch.

House District 132 - Fairfield (part)
Chris DeSanctis (R) is challenging Rep. Drew (D), and both have raised significant amounts of money.

House District 134 - Fairfield (part), Trumbull (part)
Rep. Jack Stone was defeated for the first selectman's post in Fairfield last year, so he may be vulnerable.

House District 136 - Westport (part)
Businessman Bill Harris (R) is facing Rep. Joe Mioli (D), who won by a narrow margin in 2004.

Please suggest additions, or make changes to these pages at the CT Election site! You can also check out some recent fundraising numbers for House and Senate races.

54 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does Greg Hannon have a website? I hear the kooks at the Family Institute are behind his campaign. Will that play well along the Shoreline?

Genghis Conn said...

Yes, if you follow the link to his district page, it's there.

It's http://www.hannan2006.com/.

Anonymous said...

I am a Republican, but a like Rep. Jarmoc a lot. I have not met his wife though. Anyone know if she shares his moderate views?

Genghis Conn said...

Couldn't say for certain, anonymous, but I believe so.

cgg said...

I'd include district 133. Kim Fawcett is campaigning hard for the seat including an extensive walking tour. You can't go to a community event around here without seeing her.

Tim White said...

Anyone from Cheshire on here? Do you think the 89th will be competitive?

Anonymous said...

GC -- you say that things might be different this year in the 100th. Why do you feel that way?

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Tim White said...
Anyone from Cheshire on here? Do you think the 89th will be competitive?


Heck no; some guy from Cheshire's gonna walk away with that seat anyone can easily see that.

BTW - my son says to say hi to your dad.

-ACR

Anonymous said...

Things will definitely be different in the 100th. Kalinowski is facing a newcomer who doesn't seem to be working too hard. I live in the 100th and I can't even remember her name. Kalinowski is not taking things for granted, however, and is out knocking on doors and meeting with voters.

MikeCT said...

Just added to the CT Election wiki several missing links to the Web sites of candidates cited above: Ed Meyer, Dave Zoni, Jason Bartlett, Joe Aresimowicz, Betsy Ritter, Karen Jarmoc (I think), and Ashley Clow Joiner. More links here.

Aldon Hynes said...

SD 36 should be interesting to watch. Frank Farricker is challenging Bill Nickerson. Nickerson hasn't had a challenger in many years and Farricker is coming on hard.

capitalwatcher said...

We are still watching the 30th race very closely. There are a few others in the state that are also ones to watch. This one has caught my eye and I understand Pocock is being courted by a few folks now at the capitol and the state GOP types love him. Everyone seems to know him in Southington. It is going to be interesting to see how this vote turns out. Joe will probably run strong in Berlin and Pocock will probably run strong in Southington. Rarely does a legislator running for re-election get as bothered as Joe has become, so I would assume the threat is real.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

capitalwatcher said...
Everyone seems to know him [Pocock] in Southington.


Eddie Pocock III (E-3 to most everyone in town) has garnered more votes in the past than anyone in the history of the town.

He's done a good job for us where ever he's been, Board of Ed or lately on the Water Board where he went to DC himself and came back with grants of some kind saving our taxpayers a fortune.

I know him well and in the past enjoyed Thanksgiving with he and his family at my home. He's a good man of the highest calibre.

Eddie has never lost an election and it's doubtful he will this one either.

If I bet, I'd bet the farm on E-3.

Anonymous said...

cgg - i live in Fairfield too. Rep. Tymniak is extremely well liked, has a strong moderate record and represents one of the most Republican districts in the state. Fawcett is active in the community, but she's relatively new in town and has no real history. Tymniak wins by 10 pts.

Anonymous said...

The R's can forget about the 12th. The R candidate is an extreme conservative who hasn't been able to raise any substantial amount of money. He does not play well in the shoreline. Too bad cause Meyer is beatable with the right opponent, but definetly not the one running against him this year. It was believed early on that the R candidate was going to just be a placeholder until the R's could find a better candidate but i guess not.
As far the 16th, this is the R's best chance to take a seat from the D's. Caliguiri's fundraising has been impressive and he is the favorite going in.
Just my opinion.

Anonymous said...

aldon said: "Nickerson hasn't had a challenger in many years and Farricker is coming on hard."

Aldon, are you getting paid for this promo?

There is a reason Nickerson hasn't had a challenger in many years - no Democrat can beat him. Hello ... it's Greenwich. Nickerson does a great job in the Senate. History lesson for you newbies: he handily defeated rock star Ned Lamont. This race won't be close. If you are going to put it on the races to watch, then put all contested races on the watch list.

Anonymous said...

GC-- fantastic job as always. This is definitely the long list of races to watch. But races are REALLY in play. Here is my opinion (Senate only-- House is too long and I am lazy):

SD-7 (Kissel)
SD-16 (Murphy Open)
SD-22 (Finch)

I think all the other ones stay with the party who has it now.

Anonymous said...

I agree w/ anon 10:07's sentiments, both in the senate races and the great job Genghis Conn is doing, keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Anon. 10:07 - I think that you have to add the 14th SD to that list.

Tim White said...

ACR... considering I'm the only contestant in the race from Cheshire... thanks!...

I'll tell my dad...

And if you're available, we're doing our Fall Festival on Sept 9... from 11am til night. If you get a chance, stop by. And tell Sam to stop by too... if you talk to him. It's our one big annual event in Cheshire.

Anonymous said...

Another House race to add is the 147th (Stamford/New Canaan). The incumbent Republican, Don Sherer, is being challenged by Democrat William Tong. Tong is a strong candidate and has raised a lot of money. This will be one of the top House races this year.

Jim said...

It's not a district that many people look at, but keep your eyes on Mark Stuart's challenge of Rep. Pam Sawyer. He is a very compelling candidate who will give Sawyer her strongest challenge since she was elected in 1992.

The Dude (rrr-ct) said...

Aldon, great to see you back. However, you must be consulting in the 36th. Last time I checked the District was 2-1 Rrrr, and had been Rrrr controlled for at least 20 years.
Probably 1 of only 2 "fortress" Republican SD's in the state.

Chris MC said...

HEY Jim -
Ping me off-blog, I don't have a valid email address for you....

Anonymous said...

147th is Fedele's old seat

Fugeddaboutit

Anonymous said...

"We are still watching the 30th race very closely."

I don't know why. Pocock has no chance in Berlin has already burned out by his ties with local R's that locals have no use for. Joe has never lost an election either and has been all over Southington for 2 years so if nothing else they split. Do the math Pocock should have stayed on the meaningless Water Board becuse he will not be a State Rep.

And if Ed is beloved why are locals including co-workers running to the incumbent's side.

Anonymous said...

In response to GC's original post

S7-too close to call

S9-Doyle due to the makeup of the district; Capenera would make a better legislator

S12-Meyer in a landslide; Hannan will have trouble winning his own town


S14-Lisman knocks off the incumbenent

S16-Caliguiri wins the open seat; both are capable individuals who would make fine legislators

S18-too close to call; the early edge is to Winkler

S20-Sen. Stillman retains her seat by a fairly decisive margin

S21-R's hold onto Doc's seat; Debicella is the favorite; Jones, however, is working very hard

S22-D's keep Fitch in office without too much trouble

S31-Bobroske will come close to pulling off the upset but Colapietro should hold on; Colapietro has a small group of very loyal followers who are working hard for him

Selected House Districts

H19-The retirement of Farr (Attorney General) means his seat goes D

H50-Goes D; Vogt is running very strong

H58-Rep. Tallarita slides by easily


H86-Candelora wins the open seat

H100-Rep. Kalinowski stays in office; his opponent is nowhere to be seen

H104-Rep. Gentile still has a huge advantage due to the makeup of the district; Romano is campaigning his behind off

H120-Mooney is capable of the upset; very close race to watch


There is how I see things in the races that I am somewhat familiar with. Thoughts/comments. Great Job GC!

Anonymous said...

Tong? Isn't that the guy who sang on American Idol?

Aldon Hynes said...

Dude, anon, etc.

Thanks for the welcome back. I'm very busy with various campaigns, and can't be around very much. I am friends with Bill Nickerson. We used to go to the same church. Bill is incredibly well liked in the district. Many very staunch Democrats I know really like Bill. It will be very difficult to take him on.

I am helping in every way I can for Frank's campaign. Strictly volunteer. Frank is running a very strong race. Good fundraising. Good visibility. So far, I haven't seen any substantive campaigning by Bill.

If it were simply by strengths of campaigns, I do believe that Frank would win by a landslide. However, as noted, Bill is very well liked, and has been for 20 years. Balancing the two out, it is an uphill battle for Frank, but it is going to be a great campaign and probably closer than people outside of Greenwich are anticipating.

I also agree that the race between Scherer and Tong is going to be interesting. William Tong is also running a very strong campaign. Scherer isn't nearly as strong as Nickerson, so that should be an interesting race. I am not doing anything with Tong's campaign at this time.

One other race that I'm very interested in is Ed Krumeich versus Dolly Powers in the 151st. Like Bill, Dolly hasn't seen real competition in a long time. Like Scherer, Dolly isn't as well liked as Bill. Ed is running a strong race and I'm volunteering there a bit as well.

With Ned, Frank and Ed all on the ballot in Greenwich, it will be interesting to see what sort of coattails they give each other.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:41 said - And if Ed is beloved why are locals including co-workers running to the incumbent's side

Who are these co-workers? Are you talking about cops? Do you really think most of the cops will vote for a non-cop over a cop? Especially a non-cop that has weakened drug penalties? Union leadership is not the same as rank and file.

Anonymous said...

Too many Rep seats to follow but in the Senate, some exciting match ups.

Senate7 Kissel Wins. John has done a good job reaching out to the progressives in Enfield. He knows his district and although Bill is a good guy and would do a great job, Johns win.

Senate 9 Capenera wins. Don't be fooled by the Democrat leaning district. Lot's of Democrat Italians and they will always cross over for a goomba. Also, there is a large labor workforce that can't stand Paul Doyle. The Democrats should never lose this seat but will. Former Newington Mayor Tom McBride would have been a much better choice and is from the biggest part of the 9th VS Doyle who is from the smallest. A costly mistake.

Senate 12 Meyer wins. Ed is no gem but the fact that Republicans have not been willing to unite around Hannan will hurt him. To bad Aniskovich can't get over his loss.

Senate 14 Slossberg wins. Two good people but this comes down to the incumbent edge.

Senate 16 Caligiuri wins. Like in the 9th Democrats made a critical mistake and supported the weaker of the two candidates. Corky Mazurek should have been their choice and would have run a more competitive race but instead Democrats went with Zoni who continually finds excuses not to debate. Maybe that’s not such a dumb idea. Labor helps Zoni get close but not close enough and Sam knows how to raise the big bucks and that does matter in politics.

Senate 18 Winkler wins. Andy is a good candidate and is running a good race but Winkler has too much going for her including the support of labor. Lenny has done a good job with progressives.

Senate 20 Finch wins. Rob is another good candidate but again the edge goes to Bill for his incumbent advantage.

Senate 31 Colapietro wins. If I were to predict a Republican upset this would be the one. Beverly is a good candidate but I give the incumbent edge to Colapietro

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:41 - How about some analysis like Anon 10:46 to back up your claims? Otherwise it just seems like arm chair QBing.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:27

Your rationale for Kissel winning the 7th is because he has reached out to the Progressives in Enfield? Are you saying over these past two years? Kiner won Enfield two years ago by a wide margin.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the 36-SD, Aldon said: "Frank is running a very strong race. Good fundraising."

Aldon, I appreciate your letting us know upfront that you are a volunteer for the challenger's campaign, but really "Good fundraising"?

As of the July 10 filing, your guy had raised less than $9k and had only 30 individuals donate. He had roughly $5k cash on hand. By any measure, that is not good fundraising. Maybe he has done a lot since then, but there are no signs of it from what I can tell.

This race will not be close, so we are waisting our time talking about it, I guess.

If a Democrat wins the 36-SD, then my bet is the D's take all 36 State Senate seats!

Anonymous said...

11:46 The 2004 Presidential up tick and anti-Bush sentiment hurt Kissel in 04. Don’t take me wrong, I think Kiner would do a good job but his best chance to win was last election.

disgruntled_republican said...

The Bush thing did hurt Kissel for sure. 04 was a big wake-up call for Kissel and has really taken it to heart. He has been walking door to door for the past weeks already and will be on an aggressive walking schedule the entire campaign. While this is certainly a race to watch, especially with it being targeted, I don't think it is going to be the nail biter we had to endure in 2004. Kissel should win by a modest margin.

My only hope is that this race stays clean...I know it will from this side of the aisle.

Full disclosure, I was Kissel's campaign manager in 2004 and I am serving as an advisor this year.

Aldon Hynes said...

anon(11:52) Yes, a lot has happened since the end of the June 30th filing period in the Farricker campaign.

Derby Conservative said...

I'll comment on the races I know:

H104- Gentile has an advantage in that D's outnumber R's by 3 to 1. However, Unaffiliated voters equal the number of D's, so that is a flase edge. Romano campaigned hard in 2004 and only lost by a few hundred votes (4%). I think that part of that was the anti-Rowland sentiment.

This year, Linda seems to be resting on her incumbency. She has raised virtually no money and has only knocked on doors of Ansonia Democrats. I'm sure that the DSCC has targetted this race and will cut her a fat check, but who knows how much effect it will have.

Romano has already raised over $10k and has knocked on almost 4,000 doors. He's been out there every day meeting people and given the more GOP friendly upticket this year (coattails run far in the valley, just ask the Derby Democrats), I think he takes it in a squeaker.

Derby Progressive said...

I hear Linda Gentile has knocked on 8,100 doors which more than doubles her opponents efforts. He obviously is not willing to work hard enough to win which is why Linda is a shoe in to be re-elected.

Anonymous said...

Wow! Anon. 2:33, Gentile is approaching Blondin-like status!

Derby Conservative said...

Tell me Gary Hale, where has Linda knocked the doors, because no one I know in Derby or Ansonia has seen her at their door except for one friend. I didn't think so. Be afraid Linda, be very afraid. Gary can't save you this time.

Anonymous said...

Derby Progressive,

If you are going to make up a number, make up a believable one - one that doesnt make you look like an ass.

There are only 7600 households in all of HD104 - that's unprimed, D's, U's and R's.

Derby progressive said...

Derby conservative: Did you forget about all the businesses and newly constructed homes? Maybe if your candidate lived in the district he would know that!

Anonymous said...

I am not from that area But i know Romano and I know he is knocking like a mad man..you shouldn't be underestimating him...FYI if he knocks 4000 doors and the universe is 7600 it is possible he has done it...maybe the Dems down in that area don't know what it means to work that hard for something you have such a large number advantage... but isn't that how the Dem Mayor got knocked off down there?...the dems underestimated the opponent..

Frank Farricker said...

I thank Aldon for the supportive comments. But the follow-on comment by Anonymous was incorrect. It is not a 2-1 R advantage in the 36th. The full 36th is 38% R, 27% D and 35% U. An advantage, sure, but not Fortress Republican either. You also can't compare Nickerson's win against "rock star" Ned Lamont in a 3 way race in 1990 against a not-since-challenged Bill Nickerson in 2006 that passes out 6 year old palm cards at Greenwich fairs - as he did recently (5 term incumbent is what he says- and please check out his listed website at www.nickersonforsenate.org). And if Nickerson thinks this is easy, why is he buying newspaper ads in August?

We have a real organization working in the 36th, and I expect to run an exceptionally hard race. I await your comments in October


Frank Farricker

Anonymous said...

Romano and his 3 supporters can exaggerate the number of doors as much as you want. It won't win you an election. Linda now has two years on the job experience. We don’t need to re-train someone else.

Derby Conservative said...

Derby Progressive/Gary Hale:

Again, thank you for the income tax. I really love that coming out of my paycheck every week. As far as your comment that JR doesn’t live in the District, it’s wasted here. There aren’t that many people from Ansonia or Derby on this blog. You should advise Linda to put that out in one of her “issue oriented” mailers that she will undoubtedly out attacking JR. If you don’t believe that he lives in the district, drive by his house or ask his neighbors. They’ll all confirm that he lives in Derby, just like you know he does.

Honestly, how can you accuse someone of being a carpetbagger when they grew up in Derby, started at QB for the DHS team, has family with businesses in town dating back decades and an uncle who was mayor of Derby? If this is all you’ve got on JR, then tell Linda that she may as well start cleaning out her office now.

Anonymous said...

The one thing you are right about is Linda's office could use a good cleaning. Maybe Junior could have his friend John Rowland pull a few strings and get him a janitors job in the L.O.B.? This way you won't have to worry about Linda's office needing to be cleaned out and he will have something better to do with his time.

Anonymous said...

What about Berry vs. Herlihy in the 8th Senate district?

Anonymous said...

I think an interesting dynamic in the mix this year is the fact that many incumbents - of both parties - seem to be faced with young, energetic and reasonably talented challengers. Usually most challengers are a lot more clueless then this bunch.

I think the anti-incumbency mood and the unpredictable turnout means that literally anything can happen in a number of these races.

Where'd these folks come from?

The Ds seem to have a fair bunch - did they recruit or get lucky? The Rs have a few, but about half of their challengers are of fairly advanced age and will thus have a harder time putting on a aggressive grassroots push.

Anonymous said...

This blog considers Litchfield County part of New York State You never hear about any of the candidates fronm out here Because they just assume the GOP has the seats locked up which in the 8th Senate this year I dont think is the case. Steve Berry has been out campaigning endlessly and tirelessly.

Tom Herlihy is a GOP Hack who needs to be shown the door.This guy dont even know where Torrington is just like your pal Ned Lamont.

Anonymous said...

Anybody think the 47th bears watching. The Republican, John Crooks, is an Alderman on the City Council. Malone is a do-nothing coasting on the advantages of superior democratic registrations. Crooks has already hit 2000 doors

Anonymous said...

Anybody watching the 47th?

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Republican candidate in the 83rd district was arrested a couple months back on 4th degree sexual assault.