WTIC and the AP are reporting that the gap between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont has closed to 6%.
Link to Quinnipiac Poll here.
Lamont............51% (54%)
Lieberman.......45% (41%)
Undecided.........4% (5%)
Lieberman has still not broken 50%, and Lamont is still above it. But the trend seems to favor Lieberman. Undecideds may be breaking his way. 90% of respondants say their minds are made up.
Also, the gubernatorial primary shows Malloy gaining, although the move isn't as dramatic as Malloy himself predicted.
DeStefano........48% (48%)
Malloy.............41% (38%)
Undecided.......10%
Source
"Lieberman Cuts Into Lamont's Lead." Associated Press 7 August, 2006.
Quinnipiac Poll. 7 August, 2006.
37 comments:
I don't buy this one any more than I bought the one that had Lamont up by 13 - there is no good way to poll a primary and there is no good way to poll a race where something like 20,000 people either newly registrated or changed their registration to D to vote in the primary.
This one will be decided on the ground.
Isn't there another primary going on tomorrow? Something about two mayors running for Governor?
I wonder if there are any poll results there.
Lieberman gaining on Lamont according to new poll. Lead just 6 points now!
Haven't heard anything about gubernatorial. I have a feeling it wasn't polled.
Also, the calling on this included the weekend...
Most of the members of the Jewish community that I've spoken with do not believe that Bush's elective war on Iraq has made Israel any safer.
They feel that Lieberman's support of Bush's elective war has actually made Israel less safe.
Lamont is feeling the Jesse/Al effect. Expect their support to knock Millionaire Ned out of the box.
Historically, Q-Polls tend to have wider margins than reality. This is mainly because they don't screen callers heavily, so you get a lot of people who, when asked if they will vote, say yes when in fact they will not. I think coming into tomorrow it would be fair to call both these races a dead heat. Gabe is right, everything will be decided on the ground.
chris mc - reserve your tee time for Wednesday yet?
Genghis,
Don't you mean DeStefano's lead is growing? Wasn't his lead just 3 points last week? Looks like momentum is back on John's side. Either that or the Malloy campaign is up to their devious ways again (the fake union endorsement, the push polling, etc.) Either they weren't at 3 points down, or they're losing ground. Which is it?
I think the big story behind these numbers is Question 5 of the poll. More Lamont supporters are voting for the candidate himself as opposed to the anti-Lieberman vote (August 3rd-65% anti-Lieberman; August 7th-54% anti-Lieberman).
Well, since a Democrat with the backing of 100% of the unions hasn't been able to topple a GOP or ACP governor since 1986, I wouldn't put too much faith in a disjointed labor effort sweeping JDS into the nomination. Not to mention, Olson's #1 priority seems to be getting folks to the top line for Joe, which will help Malloy.
From a GOP perspective, it's always fun seeing the union dirty-trick machine being aimed back at Dems....kind of poetic in a way.
Anon @ 10:04-
Malloy is gaining ground. He was down by 10 points last week, now he's down by 7. Looks like he has the momentum.
But yeah, I agree with the people who said that it's hard to poll a primary. You just have no idea who is going to show up, especially during a year like this.
DR,
I was quoting Dan himself:
"The reality is that this thing... it's on a course that isn't going to change. You go from 20 points to 10 points to 7 points to 5 points -- our internal numbers have it at 3 points--no way it's going to stop now."
Janet,
So are you saying that his internal polls were wrong? If the Malloy camp doesn't put much value in polls, why did he issue a press release citing his own? Either you think polls are a good barometer for judging a race, or you don't. You can't pick and choose which ones are accurate.
Anon 10:17-
Uhhh... I am not Dan Malloy, nor do I write his press releases, so why are you asking me a question like that?
I was just stating that I personally think that polling during a primary is a lot different than polling during a general election.
Poll or no poll if you live near or in Connecticut its time to help Ned lamont wins against Joe Lieberman.
We can beat Joe once and for all.
The polls don't vote people do.
Whats happening on the ground level is important.
If The Q Poll when to events to ask people who they are voting for without question Lamont would win hands down.
So if you really support Lamont get involved and helf the phone banks go door to door and most of all get out and Vote for Ned.
Very Bad time for Ned to lose momentum. Lieberman will win thanks to Jesse and Al.
Poll or no poll if you live near or in Connecticut its time to help Ned Lamont win against Joe Lieberman.
We can beat Joe once and for all.
The polls don't vote people do.
Whats happening on the ground level is important.
If The Q Poll went to events to ask people who they are voting for without question Lamont would win hands down.
So if you really support Lamont get involved and help the phone banks go door to door and most of all get out and Vote for Ned.
Joe has run by far the most ineffective and spiritless campaign imaginable. Washington certainly has rendered him impotent as far as defending himself against an unknown. This race should not be close and Joe has only himself to blame.
Talk about spin ...
Malloy's ability to gain more ground is indicated by the fact that he still has good number of people who haven't yet heard enough about him.
It's the day before the primary, and it's good news that a lot of people still don't know Malloy??
Anon 12:14 - Hilarious!
Chris,
You yourself claimed that you have seen a poll that showed that the "gubernatorial race is a dead heat." So how can you claim to be happy about a poll that shows him down 7 points? Was this other poll just bs? You brought it up several times. If it wasn't a make believe poll, then Malloy is heading in the wrong direction, no?
The day before any election is like the day before a holiday for those who are political junkies. I will be pulling the lever tomorrow morning at 6am at Tinker School in Waterbury. (In case anyone cares, I will be voting for Senator Lieberman and Mayor Dan Malloy).
It seems like kind of a cheap shot, Bruce, to knock someone for not giving money to a candidate. Some of my best and most loyal supporters in past campaigns show their support with hard work and spreading the message.
I would be happy to bet you lunch that Dan Malloy eeks out a win tommorow-- but mind you, the lunch cannot be filet. (I have some student loans to pay! ;) )
Nice post Bluecoat, that article is very informative.
Attention Authentic CT Republican/Disgruntled Republican/True Gentleman/et al...
Can we get some predicitions on the Masullo/McLean race??? Anything happening there? I live in the district, am republican, vote, and haven't received ANYTHING!
Talk about a stealth campaign(s)!
I still go with a significant margin for Lamont...
But one thing that has made me think twice about it is the number of people I talked to this weekend who were having buyer's remorse about Ned himself. Also, they seemed to be looking prospectively at Israel, not retrospectively- and noting that Ned is in bed with non-friends of Israel like Waters, Jackson and Sharpton. There's a sentiment that a) Joe's been taught his lesson, b) If Joe's the problem, Ned is a poor answer, c) they'd better turn out for Joe, because he needs it.
This may be the source of a late tightening, but to echo Gabe, the polls are worthless. I wouldn't be surprised by a 5-15% win for Lamont. A Joe victory or Ned by 20 would shock me.
But if Ned loses this... what a kick in the pants, huh?
Anybody who says the election will be won on the ground is just reciting a truism, eh?
Here some new polling info from Zogby.
In an interview on Air America Radio Saturday, National Pollster John Zogby predicts a 20 point win on Tuesday for Lamont!.
Here's the question:
Because he has led in the polls for nearly a month, if Lamont loses tomorrow, is it considered an upset? At that point do Lamont supporters pat themselves on the back for a hell of a race, or do they agonize for months over 'how we let this one slip away?'
I look forward to your answers, because it seems that Lamont and his backers have taken on the frontrunner feeling over the past few weeks.
Bruce,
Malloy is getting closer. I can taste the bacon of victory already.
Anonomous...
The turnout in the Scott MacLean / Miriam Masullo race will be dismal.
I will predict 3% will turnout.
Both of them have ran aweful campaigns.
I hear Masullo sent out a postcard bashing MacLean for not being a "real" Republican.
A friend of mine in Hartford got one.
Ctfreeper- Thanks for the message--Caiazzo is a great guy.
Trueblue--- I am a Democrat, I am a Democrat, I am a Democrat. I back Democrats, I donate when I can afford it, I work for Democrats when asked. (Don't believe everything you hear, I heard recently that I was registering Republican.)
Chris Murphy and I didn't need to kiss and make up, when I left the race I endorsed his candidacy.
Bluecoat, I agree that tax reform is an issue that generally draws yawns (and is a big reason why I went to get a masters in Public Admin in 2005), the economics of government is important. I have had some long conversations with Dan Malloy and he 'gets it'. He is the man for the job as far as I am concerned.
I don't think it is a coincidence that Connecticut fell back in the economic race as we became increasingly reliant on the state income tax, while municipalities continued to rely on property tax. All this while the state continues to run deficits in pension accounts is a recipe for economic disaster--- I will be voting Malloy because I believe he is the person that will make the tough decisions that are needed over the next several years.
Paul, are you a Democrat?
By the way, my wife heard the Lieberman "Diversity" ad on 93.7 on her way to work on Sunday and was impressed. (the ad about Lamont's membership in the country club)
Um anon yea, I am a Democrat.
Wow, did you see Malloy on TV today, the guy looked really depressed and tired. This ones game over, DeStefano by 12. Victory tomorrow and then in November for DeStefano!!!
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