Thursday, August 17, 2006

Lieberman, Rell with Large Leads

A new Quinnipiac Poll of likely voters shows Joe Lieberman leading Ned Lamont by double digits, while Gov. Rell maintains her large lead over rival John DeStefano.
If the 2006 election for senator were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger the Republican, and Joseph Lieberman running as an independent candidate, for whom would you vote?

Ned Lamont (D)............38%
Alan Schlesinger (R).......4%
Joe Lieberman (I).........49%

If the 2006 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?

John DeStefano (D).........28%
Jodi Rell (R)...................60%

Bad news for Lamont and his supporters, although it's worth noting that Lieberman hasn't cracked 50% and Lamont has managed to overcome a significant deficit before. This poll shows how effective Joe Lieberman, with the aid of Republicans and certain segments of the national media, has been at spinning his disastrous primary loss. This race will almost certainly narrow, but the fact that 72% of likely voters have made up their minds in the race should be troubling for the Lamont camp.

The race between Rell and DeStefano will also narrow, but probably not enough to give John DeStefano a fighting chance. Right now, only 50% of Democrats are supporting DeStefano. 72% of voters in this race have also made up their minds.

The poll surveyed 1,083 likely voters from August 10-14, and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Source
Quinnipiac Poll. 17 August, 2006.

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

The trendline has Lamont up 13 points since last 7/20. Not so troubling.

cgg said...

It's like the primary all over again.

Anonymous said...

Exactly, while Ned's been focused on the primary and not campaigning among R's & I's he's closed 13 points among that group.

Three months out these numbers are MUCH BETTER for Lamont then they were 3 months before the primary!

Anonymous said...

Looking at Lieberman's support among Democrats - both for who they will vote for and job approval numbers - the primary did reflect where Dems are with Joe.

Anonymous said...

Didn't the Rasmussen Poll have these two tied around the primary day for the General??? Doesn't look good for Ned, allthough the Jackson/Sharpton machine should help.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Ned is doing great! With any luck he will only lose by 9 points!

Anonymous said...

This is just sickening.
The Democrat Party's best chance at the Governor's mansion in twenty years and instead this November is going to be a coronation. Plus Ned is inches away from a three to two loss to Lieberman. That will succeed in giving Lieberman a spot on the Mt. Rushmore of Connecticut Political history along with Lowell Weicker, Chairman Bailey, and Chairman Rohrback. Lamont and Destefano are about to set progressive activists in Connecticut back fifteen years.

Anonymous said...

And how about DeStefano?? If he cant close within 20 points by the next poll, he will be a huge embarrassment for the Dems. Malloy would certainly have been a more viable candidate.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>Lamont and Destefano are about to set progressive activists in Connecticut back fifteen years


From your mouth to God's ear; er..ah...or; From your keyboard to God's monitor.


Hallelujah!


(Where's Toby Moffit when you need him?)

Anonymous said...

How is it possible that the Democratic Party lost BOTH of its endorsed candidates? Malloy could bring the issues to Rell with a proven track record and a resume that has the re-vitalization of a safe and thriving city. Meanwhile, Destefano is busy pandering to the ridiculous labor unions trying to dodge stray bullets in his city...As a dem, I'm disgusted by the whole thing.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>he [DeStefano] will be a huge embarrassment for the Dems.


He isn't already?

Anonymous said...

Open primaries may prove to be the achilles heels of the Dems. The candidates pandered to the far left to obtain their votes, and they will be thusly rewarded by the mainstream.

Anonymous said...

Take a look at the trend lines. Lamont is way up, Lieberman has lost a huge percentage of his Democratic vote from just a week ago, and Lamont has not even tried to reach independent and Republican voters yet.

Anonymous said...

Lieberman is the de facto Republican candidate. 11% is not a very comfortable margin in an essentially 2-way race.

Anonymous said...

Come on ACR,

Are you really proud that the 2 people reunning our state (Lisa Moody and Jodi Rell) were constantly reffered to by your last elected Gov.(John Rowland) as Fat(lisa)and Stupid(Jodi).

Genghis Conn said...

A9:41,

When was that?

Anonymous said...

11% is not a comfortable margin in a two way race??????

HaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA

Ned just won the primary and he's on track to lose the general!!! But dont' you worry, the trend is up and Revered Jackson is going to deliver!!!

Anonymous said...

Dear Anon. 9:41,

Are you having a bad day?

Disappointed with the latest poll results, so you are forced to lash out with hate and anger?

Well, cheer up, because I can get you tickets to Rell's innaugural.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said... Come on ACR,
Are you really proud that the 2 people reunning our state ..


Having known all of them for over 20 years I can tell you this.

I'm quite sure that I'm the only member of CT GOP st cent that never voted for John.

I defended him mightily at SC meetings as he went down however because I think it's over the line to kick someone already down.

He wasn't very loyal to people that I remain loyal to.

Nothing he said or did in the past would surprise me.
I do believe he's a changed man (prison would tend to wake someone up) and I pray he prospers and has a fruitful, happy life.

What was your point, if any?

Jandtheargonauts said...

The Lamont folks can spin the trend line anyway they want - especially since Lamont's victory and resulting national and local press boosted his standing - but let's be honest, in a three way race, Joe has a solid lead and assuming he holds what he has among Democrats, where is Lamont going to go with his liberal message - to the Reagan Democrats -I can't wait to hear him promote gay marriage as he does on his website (and that is a legitimate issue not baiting) among unaffiliateds in the more conservative areas of Connecticut like the Naugatuck Valley.

As for the earlier comment about race baiting, all I know is that Ned Lamont welcomed Al Sharpton to campaign for him. The old Sharpton was a master of playing the race card and if his past in the Tawana Brawley case is remembered by many CT voters - this was a decision that the Lamont brain trust had to consider before asking for his help.

Grumpy said...

Anon 9:16 - "The Democrat Party's best chance at the Governor's mansion in twenty years...",

You're kidding, right?

With best chances like these, who needs hopeless causes?

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Grumpy said...
With best chances like these, who needs hopeless causes?


Shhhh.


Let them have their little pipe dream and by all means let them keep spending money..the more they spend on these two lost causes the less they'll have for something later.

Anonymous said...

Jandtheargonauts said: "where is Lamont going to go with his liberal message"

Actually, if you read yesterday's WSJ oped, it is clear that Ned is changing his message. He is not going to be running as the liberal, but more as a moderate progressive. Ned knows that he needs to move to the center and that is what he is doing.

I'm sure the many Nedheads that blog will hate me for saying this, but I was talking to a woman yesterday who has known Ned for a long time, and I asked her: Is he really that far left and part of the Jesse Jackson wing of the Democratic party? She laughed. A spontaneous, loud laugh. No way she said, and she further told me that he is a moderate. She also told me that he is an opportunist.

It's only one person's opinion, but ... maybe Ned will turn out to be to the Democrats what Justice Souter has been to Bush 1. Who knows?

Anonymous said...

You'll all notice that ACR didn't dispute the FACT that Rowland use to refer to Moody and Rell as Fat and Stupid.The reason is it was widely known thats exactly what he called them in front of Reporters,pols and legislators on both sides of the aisle.

If the shoe fits.......

Anonymous said...

They may be Fat and Stupid, but they ain't felons.

The Louisville Lip said...

Ned is all but lost this race. That does not mean that his win in the primary was a complete waste as it was a wake up call to many in washington. The reason the primary was won and the final election lost for Lamont will be the fact that the republicans will not be swayed by Lamonts previous tactics of equating Bush and Lieberman.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said...
You'll all notice that ACR didn't dispute the FACT that Rowland use to refer to Moody and Rell as Fat and Stupid


I didn't realize I needed to dignify such a remark.

I recall having a drink (mine was Coca-Cola ®) at Shuttle Meadow with Rowland and 2 others who made news with him. They had just finished a round of golf and I was there with my wife who was off with someone arranging our daughters wedding reception.

Even in close private quarters I never once heard Rowland speak of Jodi in a disrespectful fashion.
Not once.


I can't recall Lisa ever coming up at all.

Anonymous said...

*Flashback* May 2nd Quinipiac Poll Headline "Rell Flying High In Connecticut Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Anti-Bush, Anti-War Feeling Does Not Hurt Lieberman " #'s Lieberman 56% Lamont 13% Sclesinger 10%.
"Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it."

CTRevolution said...

Rell hasn't face any attacks yet or a real election. Once she starts getting hit and there is a contrast shown her numbers will drop. She reminds me of the balloons her campaign passes out, stick a needle in it and she's done. As well, as once the 45% of Benedict Arnold Democrats starting realizing that Rell is Republican and that DeStefano could do much more for the state, the tide will start turning toward Rell, then it's DeStefano momentum all the rest of the way.

Anonymous said...

You are class act ACR!

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said...
Anonymous posts are fine, except when they are used by gutless weasles like you Anon. 10:31.


A little stronger than I might have put it. Never-the-less I tend to agree with your assessment.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

CTRevolution said...
Once she [Rell] starts getting hit and there is a contrast shown her numbers will drop.


No, people like her - hit her and her numbers will go up even higher.

If she hits 65% (and she could) there will be a substantial coat tail affect sweeping in probably 10 -12 marginal assembly wins for us as well as at least 2 more in the senate.

At 70% it's a blowout.

Please have your people go negative on Jodi right away.

Thank you.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

CTRevolution says, somewhat ungrammatically: Rell hasn't face any attacks yet

Ha! Other than the last two years that JDS and DM spent beating up on her, you mean?

CTR also says: as once the 45% of Benedict Arnold Democrats starting realizing that Rell is Republican and that DeStefano could do much more for the state, the tide will start turning toward Rell, then it's DeStefano momentum all the rest of the way.

Assuming, for the moment, CTR means to say the tide will turn against Rell, that seems unlikely, given that a staggering three-quarters of voters in the Q Poll say their minds are made up.

But hey, enjoy the Johnmentum ...

Anonymous said...

The "Is your mind made up" poll question is a joke. We can all, and in most cases have, changed our minds at least once in our lives. In the final pre-primary poll, Lamont had a 7% lead with 90% of the folks saying their minds were made up. Obviously, there were enough people who changed their minds to bring it down to a 4 point victory. And there's still a lot of campaign left, and a lot of money to be spent in trying to accomplish just that.

meteskyjr said...

All this chatter and not a word about Schlesinger's phenomenally poor showing and the troubling fact that at one point the GOP believed him to be the best they could do (as with Giordano not so many years ago). Nothing points to Rell's weakness (or is it selfishness) more than her unwillingness or inability, as de facto head of the Republican party in the state, to get a real candidate nominated and off and running with her enthusiastic support. I don't think she really cares about any GOP candidate in any race but her own. The Dems may not be able to beat her (especially with DeStefano rather than Malloy) but I hope to God they have fun trying!

Anonymous said...

ACR--can you give us a history lesson? What is the big deal with Bozzuto? You refer to him as if he were God. Why the love affair...and what did he run for again?

Anonymous said...

If Rowland was to actually refer to Gov. Moody and Gov. Rell as "Fat" and "Stupid" it would it not blow in Rell's contention that she knew nothing of what went on in the Governor's Office because apparently Rowland didn't realize she existed?

Anonymous said...

Major Criticisms of the Rowland Administration:
-Too insular: decision making kept within a small group close to the Governor intent on keeping their boss happy and thus keeping their jobs.
-Cronyism: if you weren't a Rowland person, then you weren't getting anything from them.
-Me Me Me Attitude: whether in governing or in campaigning, it was all about John Rowland. Lonely victory after lonely victory.

Current Realities of the Rell Administration:
-Highly insular: decision making kept to a small group close to the Governor, intent on keeping their jobs, namely Rell and Moody.
-Cronyism: If you're not a Rell person, or you haven't publicly pledged your loyalty and your first-born to her, you're not getting anything from them.
-Me Me Me Attitude: Jodi Rell is only concerned with Jodi Rell. WHich is why her state GOP is bankrupt, lesser candidates are having to fight to the death for an appearance or endorsement, and she's now having trouble raising money for herself. Smell like a lonely victory to you?

Eerie isn't it.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>Anonymous said...
ACR--can you give us a history lesson

Dick Bozzuto

English as a 2nd language, self made man (people confuse him with his now late half-brother, Adam the IGA mogul who was also a wonderful man) drop dead straight, ethics and behavior beyond reproach.

Moderate Republican, before the word got ruined it was "Progressive" Republican he was/is a populist.

Former CT state senator.

Ran for senate in 1980; got beat by a carpetbagging ultra-conservative named Buckley who in turn lost miserably.

Had the 82 Gov nomination sewn up when convention chair Larry DeNardis allowed the convention rules to be broken by Labriola & Rome; they had a love-fest and there was as a result no 2nd roll call.

Bozzuto had 49.7 % of that convention.

At the same convention Prescott Bush Jr had challanged Weicker had received around 24% (??) of the vote more than enough to primary.

Lowell didn't like that and called Dick to get his delegates to back his hair-brained idea to allow ind. to vote in state wide GOP primaries in case it ever happened again.
For this Lowell is 100% behind Dick in 86.
They shake on it.

We all held our noses, took a stiff drink and did so at a special rules convention.
(I was at all these things)


1986 - Lowell rolls out Julie Belaga who barely gets enough votes to primary.
Weickers people start up the "in the Mafia" nonsense against Dick (as if every Italian with 3 bucks is a hood).

There's Richard C. Bozzuto, the literal personification as to what is right and good about our nation and state and these disgusting people had the nerve to smear his good family name?
IT WAS TRUELY HORRIBLE.

Sept. 9th 1986 - with an astonishing number of poll workers (same way Weicker won Gov in 1990) Belaga beats Bozzuto the GOP convention nominee.

Nov. 1986 - worst defeat in the history of the Republican Party in CT.


Dick had used his popularity and whatever celebrity he might have enjoyed to the benefit of others including myself, tirelessly and liberally. He would show up for a function anywhere in CT if one of his supporters thought it might help him or her win a few votes for Planning & Zoning, Alderman, Town Council, or Dog Catcher. He went door to door with me and spoke Italian to voters who clearly adored him and he certainly didn't do me any damage in doing so either. (I'm a WASP)
Dick was the most loyal ranking Republican I ever had the honor to associate with in my life.

Many single words could be used to describe him, including; Good, fair, honest, but the one overwhelming characteristic he still enjoys is kind. The man is kind to fault even eclipsing the one thing upon which he most prides himself - loyal.

Were we to drag him (kicking and screaming I'm quite sure) back into the game he would light a fire; the man can really speak and has some other quality that maybe someone with a high degree in English might be able to quantify in words but I can't. But I would to this day go though a wall for him, or for that matter follow him into the gates of hell and I'd assume we were going to come back victorious.

Anonymous said...

ACR good post...even though im a dem i respected Bozzuto at all times

Anon12:27 said...

ACR-Thanks....I love it when you get on a roll.

bluecoat said...

there has been a huge grass roots letter writing campaign for the US SEnate race and the 4th District CT race from the Liberman, Lamont, Shays and farrell campaign but i have seen largely nothing on the gubernatorial campaign except for a few state reps writing in about Jodi's trains and a couple of Stamfordites writing in after Malloy lost about how he really won showing himself to be a good guy, blah, blah, blah - the ChrisMC kind of puff stuff. It's sda there is so little discusion out there about state issues.

Anonymous said...

DeStefano only needs to gain 16 percent to be even. That doesn't seem to hard to me. Especially when people realize that Rell's administration is full of Rowland cronies and that she's failed at bringing jobs to the state, dealing with the 400,000 people who don't have health care and the property taxes that choke the working people of the state. It's DeStefano momentum from this point on.

ALittleBitDramatic said...

Johnmentum?

If DeStefano wins in November I'll eat my hat.

If Lamont wins in November I'll eat... a sandwich.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Anon4:50:

Your political acumen is exceeded only by your math skills!

First of all, conceding you meant JDS needed to gain 16 while Rell lost another 16 - lotsa luck. Red Johnny's big response to the Q Poll today was to proclaim that he had gained 22 points since February (a span of seven months, during which he campaigned essentially unopposed by Rell and, one could argue, was aided in his basic message by DM).

He now has less than three months to make up more or less the same gap (granting your specious math) - but now he has to do it from flat busted broke while Rell actively campaigns on a $2MM warchest.

Moreover, you have completely ignored the 12 percent undecided in the race ... or on your planet, do they all break for JDS, too?

Anon says, It's DeStefano momentum from this point on.

Oddly, a similar remark was made by White Star Lines Capt. Edward Smith about 2:20 a.m. on April 15, 1912

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said...
.even though im a dem i respected Bozzuto at all times


5/5/86 there was a debate of sorts in North Haven between Dick & Toby Moffit.

One of Moffit's people posed a question implying some sort of racist overtone to Bozzuto.
Toby wouldn't let Dick respond and launched into his own people for even trying such a stunt.

Moffit's stock rose with me then and there.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anon12:27 said...
ACR-Thanks....I love it when you get on a roll.


Whole wheat or regular?

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said...
It's DeStefano momentum from this point on.


You want to be carefull not post when you're smoking that stuff.

ALittleBitDramatic said...

My guess is that when the percentage of people supporting you is almost the same as the margin of error of the poll, that's bad.

"A new Quinnipiac Poll reveals that incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman has the support of 49% of registered voters, Democratic candidate Ned Lamont is at 38%, while Republican candidate Alan Schesinger is supported by two guys from Derby named Jeff and Brian."