a new Zogby International poll showed DeStefano trailing Republican Gov. M. Jodi Rell by 17 percentage points - a far closer margin than the 32-point spread shown recently by the Quinnipiac University poll. (Keating)
The Rell campaign questioned the poll's methodology:
Rell's campaign immediately raised questions about the reliability and methodology of the Zogby survey, which referred incorrectly to the New Haven mayor as "Stefano" instead of DeStefano.
"That right there gives you an idea of the accuracy of their polling," said Rich Harris, Rell's campaign spokesman. "It just doesn't track with any of the other polls that anyone has taken."
The DeStefano campaign had been unaware of the results and expressed optimism that the race might be closer than expected.
"Zogby's got a good name," spokesman Derek Slap said. "This is consistent with what everybody thinks is going to happen - that this will tighten." (Keating)
The poll probably isn't all that accurate, although it may be correct in showing a narrowing of the race. The breakdown by party, which was available in the print version of the Courant, showed most Democrats preferred DeStefano, while almost all Republicans and a solid majority of independents favored Rell. Unfortunately for DeStefano, this is probably where things will remain--if in fact it's even this close.
Source
Keating, Christopher. "A Union Boost For Lamont, DeStefano." Hartford Courant 29 August, 2006.
40 comments:
TG- If you're right about Rell by 20 than we will see a lot of new faces in the House & Senate. I personally believe it will be a much closer race.
anon 9:29 coattails? Don't count on it. Rell is no Ronald Reagan. She will hold on to her job but has done nothing to inspire people outside of her party.
Thanks to some weak Democratic opponents, The Senate R’s probably pick up 2 seats at best with Caligiuri and Capenera. The House may pick up a few more. That is it and not because of Rell but because this is not a Presidential year. What about the constitutional Seats.
Any coattails? Will Blumenthal lose? Bysiewicz? Nappier? Wyman? If Rell had any coattails we would be talking about some wins there but everyone knows there is NO SHOT!
Trueblue--when you decide to take something for your chronic naiviete, you'll find that a candidate's likeability is among the most effective predictors of success.
JDS by 5??? No way. Rell by 15%.
Can an argument be made for Rell except that she is likable?
How about that she's not John deStefano?
TrueBlueCT said...
Can an argument be made for Rell except that she is likable?
Yes, but none needs to be made as that is in fact more than enough.
Especially now as the Dems implode forming circular firing squads all over the place.
It's no longer just that bad Joe Lieberman; now we hear there's several state reps and a senator or two that aren't good enough Democrats so they're gonna pay!(Imagine the very nerve of someone representing their district instead of lining up with the unions on every single petty, poorly thought out hair-brained issue! Such behavior must be stopped at all costs!)
Meanwhile, save for poor Alan Gold, Republicans will largely vote their party line and we'd vote for Alan too if we weren't so frightened of Lamont.
Do you seriously think Bysiewicz should keep her job? I'd be surprised if you did.
Do you really assume that all of Malloy's supporters will vote Democratic come November?
Connecticut is a liberal state. DeStefano should back Rell into the corner on same sex marriage. She won't support it and neither will most of her Republican colleagues. Civil unions are as far as they are willing to walk up to that line. The majority in this blue state would agree that everyone is entitled to equal rights. Democrats could destroy Republicans on this issue and put them at odds with the religious right but are too afraid to use it.
CTRevolution said: "She takes credit for all the democratic legislature accomplishments while doing nothing herself."
Oh, now I get it, thanks for clearing everything up for me.
Everything good is due to the Democrats in the legislature, and everything bad is the Governor's fault.
I wish we could all be as smart as you. We are truly fortunate to be in your presence.
truebluect says: "Can an argument be made for Rell except that she is likable?"
At least she's got that going for her (unlike your guy)!
Anonymous said... Rell by 15%
Only 15% ???
Rell - 60 - 65%
JDS - 35%
Off the wall candidates 5% tops
Leiberman on the GOP line would bring Rell to over 70% as it would make line "A" perfect for one-stop shopping.
JDS will maybe carry New Haven and maybe even some other Haven (we have several). Seeing as those people really know what they'd be in for I kind of doubt even that. The only wild card would be just how bad is drug abuse in those towns? I can see no other explanation for voting for JDS aside from not being in full control on one's faculties.
Yes--JDS should raise the gay marriage issue. Considering in every single referendum across the country it loses by an overwhelming majority, it is certain to propel him to an even bigger loss.
"Hi, I'm John Destefano and I support Gay Marriage"
The Rell campaign can only dream!!!
15% margin of victory for Rell in the General. Which might be too pessimistic....
Three comments:
1) Even if these poll results are correct, DeStefano is still 17% behind Rell-- that's still a landslide in my book. I don't see how John pulls it off. I hope he does, but let's not be deluisional here.
2) Coattails? Dream on. Rowland didn't have 'em, Rell won't either. All constitutional officers stay Democratic. I agree with Anon 11:14 on the State Senate-- Rs pick up two. Debicella and Winkler hold on to the retiring R seats and Republicans win two of the following five: Murphy, Ciatto, Schlossberg, Meyer, Finch.
Big deal. We still have 22-14 majority.
3) Even if the Republicans won EVERY competitive Senate race this year, we still control the Senate 19-17. This ain't happening, but I just want to put this in perspective:
Democratic rule will continue in Connecticut no matter what happens.
In thinking of Rell, I am reminded of our great President Bush II who said,
"If you don't stand for anything, you don't stand for anything."
What exactly does M. Jodi stand for? Honestly, I'm not being facetious here...can anyone tell me what she stands for that isn't shot to hell by what she's signed or voted for?
I think the numbers are closer than that. Zogby is still reporting Lieberman ahead of Lamont and that's just fanciful arithmetic.
Everyone is discounting and underestimating DeStefano and the strength of most Democrats in this race. Rell sounds just like Liebernman did earlier this year saying, "Ned who?"
Rell has done nothing and continues to do nothing about runaway spending, poor school performance, and a slipping Connecticut economy.
Hugging Lieberman isn't helping her any either.
Honestly, can any of you guys give positive reasons for Republicans to go to the polls and vote for Rell and Lieberman? (besides their personalities.)
Politics is often about picking the better of 2 candidates, not the perfect candidate. I don't give a damn about personality of the person, I do care about the issues.
Lieberman and Rell are hardly perfect conservatives / libertarians. However, they are a lot better than the alternatives.
JDS has some simply lunatic ideas. His equal pay for equal work plan, for instance, sounds great, like something no one could really be against. Until you realize that it, in effect, removes entirely market-based wages in exchange for wages being determined by government fiat. It involves matching up predominately male jobs with predominately female jobs, so it doesn't make sure that a female plumber is paid the same as a male plumber, but that a female nursing assistant is paid the same as a male plumber, regardless of the demand and supply for these jobs.
As far as Lamont goes, the guy has surrounded himself with Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. His support tilts hard left. I think he's wrong about Iraq. Lieberman is far from perfect in my book, but Schlesinger doesn't have a prayer.
If Schlesinger were getting 30% support in the polls, I'd probably support him, but with only 2% or 5% or whatever, it's a wasted vote. There's a chicken and egg problem with his campaign. He can't get supporters until his poll numbers climb, and his poll numbers can't climb without supporters.
Republican reasons to vote for Rell--
She's Republican.
She's Likable.
She looks like grandma. Fuzzy and warm and cute and scolds nicely.
Republican Reasons to vote for Joe--
He's republican (small r) And we have a big tent.
He's Likeable
He keeps Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson in the back room.
Reasons to vote for Alan Gold--
Free wampun points.
Reasons to Vote for Ned--
Anger management therapy.
Bush Derangement Syndrome.
Stratford Dem:
Something to consider...perhaps there are more potentially competitive State Senate races out there then you think...
Just a thought. Not to mention House races.
The Zogby poll is virtually worthless, as it is a self-selected universe, rather than randomly selected.
As for what Rell is or isn't doing -- this woman is in the cat bird seat -- she has millions of dollars, an extraordinarily high approval rating, and is ahead in all the polls. The R's will run an incredibly aggressive GOTV effort, on her behalf, the incumbant R congressionals and Joe's, pulling Rs and voter IDd U's and Ds.
DeStefano is broke, probably in debt from the primary, and considerably behind in the polls. He'll need more than the 70 days left to pull this off -- so it just won't happen.
The winning strategy would be for DeStefano to come out of the closet....talk about an October surprise!!!
Sure Rell's a lightweight, but so what???
She's up against a big spending, taxing, depressing personality, Mayor of a large city who has little name recognition. JDS cure for societal ills revolve around government solving problems.
Rell courageously sought to end the auto tax, the D's scuttled that.
Rell forced the D's into campaign finance reform.
Rell has replenished the rainy day fund and has distanced herself from Rowland. She is the "anti-Rowland"
Is she really that good? No-her popularity is partly due to taking the winning side of an issue and running with it. Not exactly leadership, but good enough to beat JDS handily.
Now Malloy--that would have been a good race.
DeStefano Catching Up...Are you kidding me...NOT in Litchfield County he isnt and BTW CT Keith has no knowledge of who people are supporting in Litchfield County.So I ask that he keeps his mouth shut and dont speak for us in Litchfield County. Go play in the road in Branford or go do more preaching on that crappy full of lies and deceit website of yours.
You, your opinion and that crappy Kiss Float are not welcome in Litchfield County.
Here's an idea...Let's provide health insurance for everyone...let the government ration care....put all those nasty insurance companies out of business....Hartford becomes a ghost town....people flee the state...JDS lords over a decimated economy....but the gays are well taxed and happy!!!
Universal health care is a no brainer--if you have no brain.
Why should the govt provide anyone health insurance??
The govt, now, provides the Husky plan which covers kids and poor families. The rest of us pay for health care and pay excessive taxes so that inefficient govt programs can cover the insurance costs of idiots who are too brain dead to get off their lazy behinds and get jobs.
You want universal health care?? Spend a year in the Uk or Canada--you'll come crying back to the free market.
Universal health Care lowers prices through economies of scale for one.
CTRevolution said: "They should be taxed progressively. It's time they paid their fair share."
Hey CTR, when Ned Lamont filed his tax returns his campaign managar said, and I quote, "and he paid his fiar share too." Please check the newspaper reports if you want verification.
At least one millionaire Democrat and the head of CCAG believe that the rich are already paying their fair share in CT.
It hurts doesn't it.
Anon 231- Your Statement is absolutely correct.
The people who want Universal Health Care are the ones who dont want to work and expect those of us who work to pay higher premiums and taxes to cover their sorry butts.
Why should the people who work 40 hours a week or 2 jobs have to pick up the tab for deadwood Let them get off their A** and find a job like most everyone here does on a daily basis.
Ned Lamont cant even reveal all his tax return info I think he needs to pay a lot more That is why Connecticut needs a Millionaire Tax Because these folks shelter and hide it so The State doesnt get.
While the rest of us work and survive weekly very weakly on a paycheck each week.
Maybe Ned needs to go and actually do some hard labor at a Construction Site or at Walmart to see how the regular guy survives I am sure it would open his eyes.
Name one proposal that JDS has offered that doesn't raise taxes in ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. Think hard, it's a trick question.
Well, on his site, JDS says, "DeStefano also believes Connecticut must work with New York State to re-establish rail freight movement across the Hudson River and New York Harbor."
Hey, I'm sure after JDS suggests it, NY will build more freight rail bridges across the Hudson. It's not like they'd have to worry about environmental impact statements or anything like that. And it won't cost us anything: JDS will merely suggest that more freight rail would be nice, and it'll happen. And those NY state folks will foot the bill!
Has anyone heard hide or hair from Scott MacLean?
Been a while since he beat Miriam Masullo in the 1st District Republican Primary.
I thought we had a Spending Cap in Connecticut I think we need to remind our Legislators that they need to abide by it and if not we all need to hold their feet to the flame. Great Point CT Revolution!!
The facts are that millionaires(a small minority) in the state have done very well under the George Bush and Jodi Rell administrations. They should be taxed progressively. It's time they paid their fair share.
Here we go again. First, I presume you mean people who earn over $1 million, not people who have over $1 million. Some things to consider:
1) There aren't many people in the state who earn over $1 million. There are about 180,000 nationwide, about 30,000 in California.
2) Many of the people in CT who earn over $1 million pay zero income tax to CT because they work in NYC and pay their taxes there. Taxes would have to rise considerably in CT before they started paying anything (you get a credit for taxes paid to other states, but if your state taxes are higher, you pay the difference to your state. If your home state taxes are lower, you pay nothing to your home state).
3) You'd have to really jack up the rates to get sizable revenue. Sen Meyer (D-12th) proposed about 19% income tax on those earning over $2 million. This would place CT way above every other state for income tax purposes.
4) People who make over $1 million usually have some control when they take the earnings (option exercise, selling stock, etc), and if the taxes became overly burdensome, could defer it until they were out of the state. Geez, many of the people in Fairfield county could move a few miles to NY state if taxes were 19% here. Even Democratic RI lowered its taxes this past year as it was uncompetive keeping them that much higher than MA and CT.
Taxing just the millionaires isn't going to bring in the windfall you're hoping for.
DR- I apologize thats what happens when I read it too quickly.
Anyway The Citizens(us) need to hold our legislators responsible and we(all of us) need to hold them accountable and put their feet to the flame!!!
I encourage everyone to call or speak to the legislators and the candidates running in November election and let them know they should be adhering to the state spending cap we voted in I believe back in 1992.
Actually, we have a statutory spending cap in CT - The constitional one is not in effect because the legislature never defined the required terms in it - they instead passed the staturory cap which is much easier to break every year then a constitutional cap would be. I believe the state supreme court said as much in a case involving Chris Burnham.
There you go, dragging UConn football into the debate.
30,000 boisterous fans is nothing to scoff at, allthough most are probably uninsured drunk college students. And what's wrong with the coach having a private bath?? As long as he's alone, no problem.
bluecoat -
Who are you kidding. You are so blantantly obvious in your posts that you support JDS why hide it? At keast have the courage to associate with im if you are going to plud him every chance you get.
Rell has no proposals and her track record is a joke. DeStefano has proposals, but they, like his track record, are also a joke. I'm writing Blumenthal in, and I hope any of you out there that actually want to see something other than political auto-erotica get done will do the same. I know he'd rather be a senator or federal judge, but it's not like he'd turn the job down.
bluecoat -
You said, "I think Universal Healthcare is a bunch of bullshit because nobody can define it for me and therefore I must support JDS who wants it for CT."
Um, yeah...well that's a really good reason to vote for him. If that theory were true for all us....
CTRevolution said...
I still don't hear any Republicans arguing for Jodi Rell based on what she will do for Connecticut in the next 4 years
Republicans don't want anyone doing anything for us as that seems to always wind up actually being to us.
We've already figured out what DeStefano wants to do to us thanks, and that's why we're voting for Jodi.
Maybe we should write in Blumenthal for US Senator since no one is too thrilled with the three amigos(Lamont,Schlesinger and Lieberman)that are on the ballot or the two nobodys Knibbs and Ferrucci below them.
This would resolve a lot!!!!
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