Friday, November 24, 2006

State House of Representatives Map: Supermajority



This is the last major map in the series (I'll get to the boring 1st and 3rd Districts in December).

This map doesn't look much different from the 2004 map. Democrats made some inroads down on the Fairfield coast and in the Farmington Valley. Republicans picked up a seat in Bristol. Eight changes of party out of 151 seats, by my count. You can see from the map that most seats were won by 20% or more. Many seats were not contested. Democrats are winning unopposed in the cities and some older suburbs, while Republicans are winning unopposed in rural Western Connecticut and elsewhere.

One (more) thing for Republicans to worry about is that they seem to be being pushed away from the coast and out of Greater Hartford. Interior portions of Fairfield, New Haven and Litchfield Counties are the only real safe GOP territory left, aside from isolated spots scattered around the state. Districts along that frontier, which runs down the Farmington Valley through the Waterbury area down to the western New Haven suburbs, then down the coast to Greenwich, will be ones to watch next time around.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your remarks on CT's republicans are duly noted. But, where it counts, governor and senator (Lieberman), are REPUBLICAN. How can CT be considered a 'blue state' by any stretch of the imagination?

Seems to me that the land of steady habits is republican.

Anonymous said...

Seems like the Republicans have a much better chance of gaining in the State Senate than in the State House.

The Senate districts look less gerrymandered than these...my guess is no more than 20 House seats are actually competitive in 2008, while up to 4 or 5 might be in the Seante (much greater proportion)

Also, Republican quality of candidates seems to be higher in the Senate than the House. Even if you look at some of the Republican close losses (Winkler, Russo), they were pretty good candidates with solid campaigns. The House Republicans probably only had one or two good Republican challengers (maybe JR Romano in Derby...who else?)

Republicans should pin their hopes on the Seante, not the House.

Anonymous said...

well, the Bob Ward era was great if you like a friendly and ineffective GOP caucus that loses the "good" seats in places like Madison, Glastonbury and Simsbury

Anonymous said...

One thing that sticks out at you is the dark red area in the middle of the map (in a sea of blue). It is the 100th district and Rep. Ray Kalinowski is the legislator. The guy can win in any district, regardless of voter registration makeup. Rep. Kalinowski should have be the Lt. Governor now, but Rell picked Fedele for some reason. Could he be the candidate to take down Courtney in 2008? I give him better than a 2-1 chance of winning if he runs.
Besides that area, the map is pretty blue. I think it would be better for state government if it was less of one party (and that means either party) and more split betweeen the two parties. Then the party in power (Dems) would have to work on central issues affecting all residents (R's, D's, and U's) and not just worry about making their liberal base happy .

BTW, great map!

Fuzzy Turtle said...

Maybe Repubicans (and Democracts) should be more concerned about LISTENING to their constituents, and representing ALL the people, not just toeing the party line.

Enough with the MAPS! Do something to save the middle class, help the poor and create GOOD LOCAL jobs, do something about the out of control electicity costs. THAT will determine what color your map is.

oh yea and happy Black Friday. I'm not leaving the house today. I'll go work some lime into my garden in the 'red' corner of the state.

wtfdnucsubsailor said...

With Diana Urban's shift to the Dems, the red in SE CT turns blue. IT is the first time in a long time that there are no Republicans representing any district in SE CT.

Mirror said...

Ignored here is the gradual replacement in the shoreline communities of older republican residents with immigrants from connecticut cities, who are more liberal and demanding of government services that democrats promise. Conn is becoming an urban state from border to border and evolving into on extended city.

Seymour Butz said...

Russo's challenge was anything but close for the anon that ssaid otherwise. He lost by more this time tham last time around. The Republicans could do better if they had better candidates and a mesage that meant something.

Avant-garde said...

The primary factor influencing the Republican’s poor performance – all Republican candidates other than Rell, Simmons, Shay & Johnson were abandoned by the RNC and CT GOP – Democrats are not that good! Secondarily, if you’ll examine the numbers and the polls carefully, you will find out that CT is actually quite purple and saturated with unaffiliated voters who refuse to stick to one of the two major parties on a regular basis or across the board– one candidate at a time, one election season at a time. Perhaps United States is ripe for a common sense problem solving third major party? You tell me…

Monday morning QB looking to next sunday said...

Ghengis - just curious - of your "watch list" and your map - how many were within 2% or 10%? And of those, who is a possibility for next time? I'd assume that 2-time losers are not going to run again.

Anonymous said...

Mirror's right. Older republicans are retiring to FL and NC, and are replaced by younger dems. The newbies will stay blue because they are leaving high tax (NY) areas and want good schools above all else. If not an extended city, CT is an extended suburb. The repubicans need more than good candidates and good messaging. They need the dems to screw up.

Wolcottboy said...

Looking at the maps of both the House and the Senate, they look nearly identical in coverage area.

You might call it purple from the Town Council control maps that if Republicans can resonate from a town council seat up the ladder, they might make inroads.

Anonymous said...

In the 1960 and 1970's lots of WASP's on the Gold Coast moved to FL andsold their homes to Catholics from NYC accustomed to voting for Democrats

Why did that transformation leave the partisan balance unchanged whereas Gold Coast emigres are now replaced by more liberal reisdents?

Anonymous said...

Seymour- your wrong as usual... get your facts straight.

Anonymous said...

The comments regarding old Rs moving out and being replaced by liberal unaffiliateds is right on the money. That is exactly how Guilford has become a blue town. The farmers sold their land to yuppies. End of game. Now, as to whichever Kalinowski campaign worker posted that anon comment that still has me laughing...Ray wins because Ray works hard and has a good rep from his time as First Selectman...Good luck to him if he wants to run in the 2nd CD...Courtney will clean his clock in a presidential...he better be ready to run until Courtney screws up, which I doubt he will. Simmons should run again. He's the only one with a chance right now. And look at the map...there ain't no bench.

Anonymous said...

9/11 spooked lots of people to leave NYC and come to SW and NW CT. High housing costs and taxes also bring people from Westchester. Since they are paying lower taxes when they get here, they don't mind taxes going up slightly as long as they get the benefit from the tax and the overall tax burden is still low compared to Westchester.

Anonymous said...

Genghis, Nice map -- very interesting. One correction. Tom Reynolds in the 42nd district (Ledyard, Preston, part of Montville) ran unopposed, so that district should be dark blue.

Anonymous said...

Speculating now on which Republican might win in CT-2 or CT-5 in '08 is unproductive. Too much time, too many variables. What will Simmons do between now and '08? Be an ambassador? Get an under-secretary gig in DoD? He came real close to winning, but he has to do something over the next 18 months to show he is still involved. The two dems will have a modest track record to run on by then. And who really knows the dynamics that will emerge from a Presidential campaign. The real key is what do the voters what from their elected reps and will the two dems be able to deliver.

Anonymous said...

Look at this map, and think back to the blood-red '84 Reagan election map. The elephants have squandered much, and it will be a long time before they gain an equal foothold. Bubba is one helluva campaigner. He'll make sure Hillary wins, and she'll bring along the rest of the underticket.

Anonymous said...

I agree that anyone going up against Courtney in a Presidential year is pretty much sunk, but if you're going to pick someone to run against him and say he has a chance to win, pick someone who can pick up votes in Blue towns, not Kalinowski, who's district is only partaially in Second. Guglielmo, Sawyer, and Giuliano would all seem to be far better picks by just looking at the maps. All won by a large margin, and Represent Blue towns where they could pick up votes, if they wanted to wait until 2010, Mansfield turnout won't be too high, and picking up enough votes in their Home districts could put them over the top.

Genghis Conn said...

You're right, Anonymous, I've changed the 42nd to dark blue.

As for Urban... I had thought of coloring her district in wishy-washy purple or even blue, but decided that, since voters actually voted for her as a Republican, and that therefore the seat was actually won by a Republican, that it should stay red. That more accurately reflects the will of the voters, which is really what's being mapped here.

GWB said...

When will the maps go up on the sidebar? This year's governor's map, for example, has already fallen off the front page.

Seymour Butz said...

What a friendly blog. Finch's 2004 margin of victory over Russo was 7.96% and even more in 2006.

Anonymous said...

In the aftermath of this 2006 election cycle Andrew McDonald stated in The (Norwalk) Hour that one of his top priorities for this next legislative session will be transportation reform. I'm glad Andrew has decided to join me in
fighting for that issue; it was a major part of my campaign platform.

I hope my campaign has encouraged Andrew to stop trying to radically redefine marriage and start concentrating on transportation. That is really one of the big issues that matters to Stamford and Darien.

Why this wasn't Andrew's priority for the last two years in office is not known. However, I'm glad that he decided to work on it now.

Andrew has a veto-proof majority over Governor Rell in this next term because of the lopsided election results. With complete control over state government in Connect-icut, there is no excuse for Andrew not to accomplish what he is promising on reforming transportation.

As the son of a former mayor of Stamford, Bruno Giordano, I remember how important it was for my dad to never make empty promises. Let's hold Andrew and all our state representatives accountable for the things they promise to do. I know I will.


Rick Giordano
Stamford
Republican candidate in the 27th state Senate District.)

way2moderate said...

Umm... Middletown (thus, Giuliano) is not in the 2nd CD.

bluecoat said...

Fairfield turned blue because the Republican incumbents were boring and almost acted entiled to their jobs. Stone and Tymniak ran on the same issues they've been running on for the last several elections. The D challengers were energized and got out and campaigned. People took a chance on the alternatives becausue they haven't seen much in the way of results.

And DeSanctis, who challenged Drew for the 132nd, ran a nasty off-base negative campaign against Drew's record that never rang true and consequently turned people off.

All that said, the RTC thinks Bush and Iraq lost them the election eventhough Bush's biggest supporter on Iraq, Shays, won the town.

Chris MC said...

Middletown (thus, Giuliano) is not in the 2nd CD.
Giuliano live in Old Saybrook, and represents a slice of Westbrook and the Lymes, safely in the 2nd.