Susan Bysiewicz made it official this morning: Courtney the winner by 90 votes. Geez.
I would be surprised if Simmons does not concede this afternoon. The only reason he might have to continue would be if there was some sort of serious election violation we're not hearing about.
So why did Courtney win? What tipped the scales? In a win this close, there are a lot of factors to consider:
1. GOTV efforts were crucial. Turnout in Mansfield, where UCONN is, was especially high. In 2002, the last midterm election, 4,668 voters turned out in Mansfield: 6,150 turned out this year. Almost all of the increase in votes went to Courtney. Courtney also managed to pick up votes in towns previously won by Simmons, including Enfield and his hometown of Vernon.
2. The Lamont effect. At least part of the increase in Democratic votes in Mansfield must be attributed to the excitement surrounding the Lamont campaign. Mansfield was one of the few towns were Lamont carried a majority of votes: he won by nearly 30% there.
3. National issues. The war in Iraq and the detainee bill weighed Rob Simmons down, as did the "R" after his name. People were in a mood to punish Republicans this year.
4. Joe Courtney. He is a modest, moderate, thoughtful and independent man--much like his opponent, Rob Simmons. He's the kind of politician the independents in this district like, and he presented himself as a very credible and acceptable alternative to Simmons. This is quite possibly where Diane Farrell failed.
All that said, this could have obviously gone the other way without too much trouble. I have to wonder if there are 100 Republicans out there who didn't vote kicking themselves this morning.
10 comments:
65 towns in the district?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if there were at least 100 Republican Town Committee members (throughout the CD2) who failed to vote.
The state congressional delegation would have been in good hands either way. Simmons was not a bad congressman. BUT...That's another Democratic vote in the House, Courtney is a great man, personally and professionally, the RNC should be ashamed of themselves. The "Joe Courtney, the CT Taxman" ad was shameful. It is my hope, and I'll never be able to prove it, that people reacted negatively to that ad and those 90 votes were a result. Rob is a better politician than that, but his party is brutal in his campaigns. I wish Simmons luck in his future, he is a good public servant, but a HEART congratulations to Joe Courtney. I can think of noone more deserving than him. I am proud he is my Congressman. Certainly not a lesser of 2 evils.
Of course, the are probably 100 Democrats who didn't vote who are breathing a sihg of relief right now.
Or a net 100 votes for Courtney in those 150 UCONN students whose votes won't count.
This was the way Karl Rove planned it all along. I just haven't figured out why yet but I know he was behind this whole thing all along.
Is there nothing bluecoat doesn't know? How do we manage when he doesn't drop pearls of wisdom like this?
This is a shame. Rob Simmons is a honest man and one of the best politicians in the country. I'm sure he'll be back in two years.
What are other people's thoughts on the over-vote in Norwich? Only 9100 names were crossed off the voter lists, but the machines registered over 9500 votes. Is this normal?
How I wish our election were beyond reproach.
Yes I also agree that the loss of Rob Simmons in Congress is a real loss of a good man.
I too hope he will be back. Any chance we could talk him into moving to the 5th district? :-)
Shocking 4:15. If this the results were the other way around you know we would be hearing it. In fact, there is a race where a Dem lost a congressional race by 3500 and of course she is claiming fraud. It's just unbelievable!!
There's not much doubt that had Bush fired Rumsfeld a few weeks earlier, Simmons is one of those Republicans who'd now be going back to Washington. I'd consider this the real tipping point.
Agreed. A lot of old time WASP R's in places like Old Lyme would not have pulled the trigger for Courtney if the White House had exhibited even the slightest response to public outcry over the lack of progress in Iraq
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