Monday, November 13, 2006

5th District Speculation

The Danbury News-Times has an interesting piece this morning on who might challenge Chris Murphy in 2008:
One day before the election, state Rep. Robert Godfrey, D-Danbury, joked of a likely "bloodbath" between state Sen. David Cappiello, R-Danbury, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, and others for the Republican nomination to challenge Murphy in 2008.
Cappiello and Boughton have been mentioned along with state Sen. Andrew Roraback, a Goshen Republican whose district includes Brookfield and New Milford; New Britain Mayor Tim Stewart; and state Sen.-elect Sam Caligiuri, a former Waterbury mayor. (Lucas)

All interesting possibilities. Boughton may be seen as too much of a liability on immigration issues, while Stewart isn't really known outside greater New Britain. Caliguiri will probably want to get more than two years in the state senate under his belt before trying for Washington, which leaves Cappiello and Roraback.

Given the amount of money and time it takes to run for Congress, we'll probably have some sort of idea of who will be running around the middle of next year.

Lucas, Fred. "Who will challenge Murphy in '08?." Danbury News-Times 13 November, 2006.


Anonymous said...

Unless some State Democratic Senator hits the power ball, resigns and an R is elected in a special election… with a Super Majority all R's in the Senate are rendered powerless hence, Cappiello or Roraback would not be much of a challenge to Murphy.

The biggest losers in CT are fat and stupid as both Jimmy and Don are practicing their lines...."Who's your Daddy"?

Anonymous said...

I like New Milford Mayor Pat MURPHY for her name. It provides instant name recognition and would trigger a media frenzy over two candidates with the same name running for the same position.

Anonymous said...

A businessman (or woman) may be the best answer. There would have to be a very big consolation prize awaiting Roraback and Cappiello to get either to take on the risk of challenging Murphy. A business person with deep pockets has nothing to lose other than dollars.

GMR said...

A few years ago, Virginia had a Warner vs. Warner race, and Warner won (and Warner lost).

And back in the 1990s, Zell Miller beat Millner for the Senate race in Georgia...

Shadow said...

> A few years ago, Virginia had a Warner vs. Warner race, and Warner won (and Warner lost)

> And back in the 1990s, Zell Miller beat Millner for the Senate race in Georgia...

I'm just glad they never attempted that in Palm Beach County, FL. In a race between Jeb and a Democrat named Bush, John Bush of Anthrax would have somehow ended up getting all the votes.

Anonymous said...

There will certainly be a Danbury candidate once Boughton and Cappiello strike a deal or a duel, but Smiling Sammy Caligiuri looms large, and you can easily add Tim Stewart in New Britain, Bill Hamzy and others in and out of government to that list.

Anonymous said...

do not overlook
Brian Flaherty

Anonymous said...

certainly have to be a Mayor as State R's can't afford to abandon any of the few state legistature seats they have left. I think a serious challenge will be mounted against the freshman Murphy - but he is probably the best campaigner in CT. If you combine Fusco, Dandrow, and Johnson he has dethroned 46 years of incumbency. Barring a self-inflicted political wound I don't foresee a challenger getting inside of 15 points. Of course, alot can happen in 2 years.

Anonymous said...

Murphy will be VERY vunerable in 2008. This is an R-leaning district, and if McCain tops the ticket Connecticut will be in play.

The key for the Republicans is not having a primary. If they can agree on one candidate (doesn't matter who it is-- all the names mentioned are good candidates), they have a shot.

If they spend millions fighting for the nomination....well, can anyone say DeStefano?

barrywep said...

I don't think Murphy will be very vulnerable, although Republicans will try because if he is reelected he could be there a long time.
Remember this district was supposed to be a "fair fight" district between Johnson and Jim Maloney. It is not the same district Nancy represented before 2002.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 12:05...If McCain gets the nomination, Connecticut will be in play? Do you live in the same Connecticut as the rest of us? CT last went for a Republican Presidential candidate in 1988, but Connecticut has changed a lot since then. It is beyond impossible in the current climate for any Republican to be elected to a statewide federal post. Just ask Senators Orchulli, Giordano and Schlesinger. Murphy is extraordinarily popular in a difficult district, and unless he gets caught in a scandal, he's pretty safe.

Anonymous said...

If you don't think McCain will be competitive in CT in 2008, then you really don't understand CT politics.

CT voters have shown time and time again they like mavericks from both parties.... Weicker, Shays, Lieberman...the list goes on and on.

McCain will be very competitive in CT in 2008.

And Murphy better not think his seat is safe-- there are a lot of good R candidates, and if they coalesce around one, it will be bad news for us.

Anonymous said...

The Danbury paper was just promoting Danbury area Republicans. Danbury is hardly the center of the universe when it comes to CT-5. The GOP candidate (like Murphy) will likley come out of the Waterbury, New Britain, Meridan nexis. And don't forget about Nancy Johnson. She still has influence with conservative republicans. Her endorsement or lack of it will aid or hinder any candidate.

Anonymous said...

Anon. 3:11 said: "Murphy is extraordinarily popular in a difficult district, and unless he gets caught in a scandal, he's pretty safe."

What color Kool Aid are you drinking Anon? Murphy is a very skilled politician and he may very well hold onto this seat for a long time, but to suggest that he is "pretty safe" is absolutuely ridiculous.

There are a number of very strong GOP candidates and a lot of things can happen in 2 years. Who knows what direction Pelosi might take our country and what votes Congressman Murphy will have to make over the course of the next 2 years.

The Presidential election is also a wild card.

The GOP will field a very competitive candidate and both parties will target this race with big $$$.

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:02: You hit the nail on the head! She'll never say it, but if Roraback is the only state senator in the district to get traction, it won't be by accident!

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure a WASP from the NW corner won't get hammered in the heavily ethnic I-84 corridor.

I'd say find a businessman. No baggage, lots of time to campaign, and will be able to raise the coin.

If we ran a legislator how about Sean Williams?....he's a Murphy clone when it comes to energy and youth and his seat will stay R if he leaves.

Anonymous said...

Roraback also happens to represent 15 or more towns in the district and they're all the wacko ones.. he's well positioned geographically and politically to run a credible and successful campaign. As for the relationship NJ has with him or any of the other potential candidates, i don't know, but most people make up their minds independently of endorsements.

Anonymous said...

Mike Clark, the Town Council Chairman from Farmington has the corruption fighting credentials, an FBI career, and a ton of terrorism experience tocounter Murphy's biggest weakness. This guy could be a player in future races

Fuzzy Turtle said...

"I like New Milford Mayor Pat MURPHY for her name. " YOU MUST BE KIDDING. The woman is INCOMPETENT, she's got more skeletons in her background than the Baghdad moegue!

Why do you insist on quoting Fred Lucas articles? he's up a tree. Boughton's not going anywhere, right now he wouldn't even carry Danbury, people are so fed up with him.

zepp714 said...

You can look to the mess in the 2nd right now to see that Murphy won't be in much trouble 2 years from now; CT voters are always willing to give the new guy a chance, a la Simmons. Murphy's no idiot; he's gonna be able to stamp his name all over legislation in D.C. with a Dem Congress, and he's a pro at retail politics. He's still gonna be fresh, new and dynamic in 2 years, and he'll be in solid standing.

Anonymous said...

Ok, let me rephrase:

Murphy is "pretty safe," not because the GOP won't be pouring everything they have into the race and doing their best to defeat him, but because he's personally popular, because the CT05 is trending Democratic and because his politics are a solid match for the district. Ultimately, I don't see an easy way for the GOP to beat him in 2008.

Murphy isn't going to rest on his laurels by any stretch, and I recognize as much as anybody else that the 2008 campaign started Monday. But in 2008, the eventual Democratic Presidential candidate is going to win the 5th, and Murphy will considerably outpoll that candidate.

Chris MC said...

I just want to acknowledge that this is an exceptionally clean and substantive exchange of opinions - thank you everyone, and please keep it coming!

Anonymous said...

"because his politics are a solid match for the district."

NOTE TO ANON: Cornwall is not representative of this district.

Lamont was crushed here by Lieberman and Kerry's margin over the unpopular Bush in 2004 was akin to the Courtney-Simmons race.

Murphy was behind when the argument turned on his ideology.(i.e. wiretaps) People perceived the later charges regarding sex offenders and drug dealers as either character attacks or out of context, and Nancy suffered.

Anyone thought what the possible Giuliani pluralities in some of these towns might look like?

Anonymous said...

It seems to me that the only way the 5th district is a lock for Murphy in 2 years is if the Republicans allow that to be the case.

But like Murphy himself, they have to believe they can win the 5th back.

I see his huge victory this year as much more as a function of many factors that far outweigh which way this district is currently leaning politically.

I find it very hard to believe that many people in the 5th district actually had a clue who Chris Murphy was 6 months ago. I also find it hard to believe that many of those same people who voted for him 2 weeks ago even then really knew all that much about him politically.

I am not minimizing how hard Murphy and his staff worked, nor am I suggesting he is some fringe far left Democrat. I am suggesting this:

That his most effective campaign help may have from Johnson herself, and the God awful campaign she ran.

That it was time for a change in the 5th district.

That this was a horrible year to be an incumbent Republican.

And certainly not a year for a 24 year incumbent Republican with a record that was apparently something she was not comfortable to brag about, to slinging nothing but mud at a fresh new face.

I believe Murphy will have his hands full the next 2 years trying to stay on Nancy Pelosi's good side, while trying to represent the best interests in his district.

That should allow the Republicans plenty of opportunity to point out exactly where he may have failed to do so.

I hope the Republicans don't give up here like they have in the 1st, 3rd, and in our General Assembly.

One party rule no matter which party is not a good thing.

Anonymous said...

mark boughton already has $50k in commitments. he and cappiello are going to fight world war III

brickbat said...

Chris Murphy, whatever you think of him, knows how to win elections. He will win easily no matter who his opponent is.

That district is not heavily Republican as was suggested, my recollection is that it was fairly evenly split during the redistricting fight between Johnson and Jim Maloney.

The advantages of incumbency will be his.

The Republican candidates you mention are all decent guys, but I don't think they're winning in 08. What are they gonna do, go negative? That didn't exactly work for Hatchet Lady Nancy.

And if you think Rudy Giuliani will be the GOP nominee for're smokin' something. He'll never get the nomination, given the powers of the kooks in the primaries.

Anonymous said...

I think Andrew Roraback would be a solid candidate to challenge Murphy in 08. The question is will he give up a safe State Senate Seat to risk it on a Congressional run that he may not win.

Roraback would do well in Litchfield County what he would do in New Britain,Meriden, Waterbury and Danbury is anyone's guess Only time will tell.

Anonymous said...

Sean Williams has no chance on being a Congressman Anon 706 PM he was a mouthpiece for that Lamo Nancy Johnson.

Chris Murphy would wipe the floor with that loser from Watertown and Dont even Suggest Brian Flaherty he is another mouthpiece for Johnson and he too would get clobbered.

Face it Chris Murphy is going to be 5th CD Congressman for Many years to come.

Anonymous said...

Murphy is the favorite to win, but he's the inveterate chaser. He's all about the conquest. He'll tire of the House soon enough and go for Dodd's Senate seat.

The GOP has to run strong.

Jim Fleming has been quietly doing a great job for Rell, and he'd be the best "grownup" for the job, especially after cleaning up DAS for Rell. Sorry Herlihy.

Roraback has the best base, and he's as honest as the day is long. He'd strike the right contrast to show what a rank opportunist Murphy is.

Cappiello has the next best base to run from, and is the next best choice.

Caligiuri has the momentum right now, but won't sell outside of Waterbury.

Flaherty left with lots of good will around the district, including Waterbury. He's my sleeper candidate, but the fact is he left. In politics, gone is forgotten.

Williams has an even longer future ahead of him than Murphy. Sorry Anon 4:23, you'll have him to kick around for a long, long time.

This one's wide open, folks.

Anonymous said...

Two points: A lot of the right wing zealots in the Red States have concluded that nominating the biggest bible thumper is no longer a guarantee to victory. So folks thinking the 2008 GOP candidate will be another Bushie type may be very surprised.

Second: I haven't heard the term "Lamo" since 8th grade, I know Murphy has young supporters, but this is not MySpace.

Anonymous said...

a wild card to consider might be Avon's Jim Vicevich. His irreverence and intellect might contrast well with poll tested faux earnest Murphyism

Anonymous said...

Obviously there are many possible Republican candidates from the 5th district who could possibly take on Chris Murphy in 2008. Chris Murphy has a great track record of winning elections. He also has never had to really defend his voting record. He is not some wonder boy. But he a great salesman.

He cannot hide under the radar screen in Washington looking for the exact right moment to advance his career as he has done up to now. By 2008 the voters of the 5th district will have a far better idea who Chris Murphy really is than they do now. I think the Republicans would be very foolish to think Murphy could not be beaten by a decent candidate, who was well funded, and who runs a good campaign.

Anonymous said...

Andrew Roraback would be the GOP best hope of challenging Murphy.

Sean Williams is too wet behind the ears to run for Congress let him get in the line to succeed DeLuca in the State Senate and work his way up the ladder.

Mark Boughton shot himself in the foot and would lose because of his stand on running the Portguese and Brazilian Immigrants out of Danbury

If this is the best The GOP can give us Then Chris Murphy will be in Congress for 30 years.