Connecticut Politics and Elections: Coverage, Analysis, Maps and Commentary
Amen - let the chips fall where they may.This race is still anyone's to win.
GC,I'm assuming by your silence you're OK with this comment on the previous thread:Authentic Connecticut Republican said... Anonymous said... Dems vote in the morning and Repubs vote late.Get real - just visit a DMV branch before 10 am and then stop by sometime in the afternoon.Welfare recipients (rapidly becoming the last major voter block for the Dems) have no reason to jump out of bed in the morning.
I just hope the mainstream media picks up on this poll (they haven't with Zogby, which has had the race tied for two months).This poll backs up everything I have been saying, as do its numbers for Rell vs. DeStefano (64% - 32%). Clearly, as I've said many times here, DeStefano CAN'T win. Anyone voting for him because he's the only "viable" alternative to Rell is completely out to lunch. Vote Cliff Thornton for Governor.
Here are my predictions in the races tomorrow. I'd like to know everyone else's. This is cross-posted from My Left Nutmeg.Senate:Lieberman wins by a 8-10% victory. OK, let's say 9%. Sorry, guys, I think Lieberman's had it in the bag for weeks based on flawed Lamont campaign tactics.Congress:4th: Farrell beats Shays by about 2%, partly on the strength of the Libertarian, Phil Maymin, who takes away some Republican votes.5th: Johnson beats Murphy by about 2%. Lieberman's Republican GOTV (plus some Schlesinger hangers-on) motivates Johnson's base.2nd: Toughest call. I give it to Courtney by a shave based on the anti-Republican wave.Governor:Rell, duh. The question is, by how much? Lieberman's Republican GOTV gives her more of a margin than you might expect. I say, Rell by about 22%.National:Here I'm not so sure what's going to happen. I think Dems pick up about 18-20 in the House, because of tightening + Republican GOTV + basic fact that Democrats tend to vote less. I see the Senate breaking 48-52 for Republicans -- and I count Joe among those Republicans.
Anonymous said... GC,I'm assuming by your silence you're OK with this comment on the previous threadWhy should there be a problem with that, it's the truth.CT is one of only a few states that demands that those that get off welfare pay it back - thus trapping those people in the system forever. The GOP as attempted to change that but the Dems have called every effort a "big business giveaway" and not allowed anything out of committee.
A6:30 -When it comes to speech, silence doesn't imly consent. ACR is entitled to his opinions, however warpedly partisan or jingoistic they might sometimes be.We're quite capable of addressing the substance of substantive comments; we don't need to rely on overweening political correctness to keep the overweening politically incorrect in line around here.
Silence doesn't imply consent either.And, as soon as ACR says something of substance, I'll probably take issue with it.;-)
My prediction is Ned Lamont will make history on Tuesday and win over Lieberman 8-10 % points over what ever Lieberman ends up with.With all of Lieberman dirty tatics with his campaign people paided with the petty cash and himself trying to prevent Lamont from Marching in the Vetrans Parade in Hartford last Sunday thats just many of the sleazy tactics that show people what the real Joe is like now.Voters in Connecticut will vote out Lieberman and the pollsters will be trying to do a spin on why Ned won.Tuesday Night Ned Wins Pollsters lose and the best of all 3 terms is enough Lieberman is out of the U.S. Senate for good.Thats the bottomline. Watch and see.
One other quick note about this race; no one has mentioned this, but ALL of the Internet polls (Polimatrix and Zogby Interactive) in the last two months have shown the race within the margin of error, whereas as ALL the phone polling in the last couple of weeks has shown Lieberman ahead by double digits.The results of this race will have a big effect on the credibility of Internet polling vs. phone polling, and thanks to the explosion in call screening and the inclination of some people to only have a cell phone and no land line, things are looking pretty bleak for the future of home phone polling as an accurate method.
I've un-crossposted my predictions at My Left Nutmeg because... shall we say... they were not taken to very kindly over there.But I'd love to hear more people's predictions. Don't be shy!
Yes, but not a single poll has shown Lamont up. I agree though, i think these polls are close to useless...
Even if you don't like Smokin' Joe's $380K on the street, at least he got more bang for the buck than Lamont's $15 million. Smokin' Joe by at least four percent.
>>Anyway, it says Lieberman 48%, Lamont 44%, Schlesinger 5%.Al will do better than that.If were smart (not a bet I'd make) we'll wheel him out unencumbered against Dodd in a few years.
ACR,You think "It's the truth" that "Welfare recipients (rapidly becoming the last major voter block for the Dems) have no reason to jump out of bed in the morning." or is it just Republican code that you have to use here instead of the Ni**er jokes you guys share at Republican State Central meetings?
That's a very good idea, Authentic Connecticut Republican.Schlesinger has made a name for himself. He's shown that he's a down-to-earth guy and a really good debater.If Republicans want to counter Dodd, Schlesinger might be your man.I'd bet Schlesinger's got that in the back of his mind. Run for House in 2008 against Murphy, then take on Dodd in 2010.
Enough on all sides. This discussion is long past being productive. So cut it out. No more baiting each other. Tomorrow everything gets settled... for a while.
Shadow,On every post you say people should vote for Thornton because DeStefano can't win, but don't give a reason why. I'm not saying that DeStefano is going to win, but if someone thinks he's the best candidate for governor, shouldn't they vote for him? I voted for Nader in '00 because I thought he was the best candidate. I knew he wouldn't win, but isn't that the beauty of a 3rd party candidate? Your argument that people should vote for Thornton because DeStefano doesn't have a chance seems to go against the idea of 3rd party candidates, no?
No, not at all, you miss my point; I've always said my argument does NOT apply to those who honestly believe DeStefano is the best candidate.My argument is only directed, as I have clearly stated in this post and every other, to voters who are just voting for DeStefano because they think he's the sole "viable" alternative to Jodi Rell, but yet they don't even consider voting Thornton because "he isn't viable". I am simply pointing out that there is absolutely no evidence to back that kind of thinking up; in fact, it's completely irrational.All the facts clearly show that there IS no viable alternative to Rell this year, so my point is that the viability argument should be gone completely at this stage, and the ONLY argument that should matter is, as you said, who the best candidate is.And there are plenty of reasons why Thornton is the best candidate. He shares four positive attributes with my preferred candidate for Senate, Ned Lamont, that Rell, Lieberman, DeStefano do not share:1. no prior ethics issues2. no lobbyists/special interests/PAC money/owed favors3. a belief in fiscal responsibility that takes into account how to actually PAY for the programs being proposed4. a fiercely independent and honest streak that will be beholden to no interest but the that of the peopleNot to mention that Thornton also supports free college tuition for ALL (payed for by lottery and gaming money), upping teacher salaries, and Results Based Accounting for educational expenditures as well as all others (Thornton's site credits Republican State Representative Diana Urban for taking the lead in Results Based Accounting, and is the only platform in this race to endorse and campaign on this method; just one more piece of evidence that the Green Party actually represents the center on most issues nowadays, not the fringe).Thornton's platform also supports a return to paper ballots, eliminating the sales tax, getting REAL campaign finance reform, and protecting homeowners against eminent domain cases like those recently in New London.
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