Tuesday, November 21, 2006

State Senate Map: Few Changes


Two seats changed parties: the 16th and the 19th. A few new faces will come in, most notably Doyle in the 9th, Maynard in the 18th and Debicella in the 21st.

There was a close race or two. Sen. Herlihy has taken Sen. Kissel's spot as the Republican whose margin of victory was the smallest. Bill Finch survived his second run-in with Robert Russo without too much trouble, and Dave Zoni made a race of it against Sam Caliguiri.

But really, the status quo in state senate races seems to be huge margins, weak opponents and very, very little in the way of change.

17 comments:

GMR said...

What's amazing is how many districts are either dark blue or dark red. Very few pastels.

I don't think this is necessarily because of the strong party IDs in these districts, although that certainly will be the case for some. Rather, I think it's the power of incumbency. Also, because Connecticut doesn't have partisan gerrymandering, it's not because of excessively gerrymandered districts...

Anonymous said...

If you can avoid a personal scandal, serving as a State Senator is a pretty secure gig.

disgruntled_republican said...

GMR -

When speaking in terms of colors, one should also look at how many of these races had no challenger. I know Tony G in the 35th did not, thus the dark red.

Anonymous said...

How does a guy like Ed Meyer, who barely won a two years ago (he did beat Aniskovich) suddenly win by 30 points just two years later in the 12th? The guy is not well liked and comes off as clueless. Some of the Democratic town committees in the district, I believe, were even hoping he wouldn't run again so they could have run someone else. The disrtict is pretty much 50-50 split between R and D.

Is it the power of incumbency? Or was it because the R's ran a very weak candidate?

Been trying to figure this one out since election night.

Thoughts???

Mirror said...

Electric Boat was well represented by Simmons but the union endorsed Courtney and there were nasty incidents at EB's gate were a capaigning Simmons was cursed by workers.
A cursory examinaton of the senate mat shows, what may be assumed, an economic divide in the state The east is dependent on the casino's and residual manufacturing plants like EB. The western portion is heavily affected by the white color employement - an economic and educational divide.

Anonymous said...

State Rep Diana Urban switches parties to become a Democrat. Cafero's new "management" style directly to blame... details to follow

Anonymous said...

There's a rumor that one of the D's was offered a deal...Judge or commissionership? That would bring a special election where an R would have a much better shot of winning and ruin the super majority

Anonymous said...

Just FYI - a typo - the 19th didn't change parties. It was the 18th.

Anonymous said...

If you have a personal scandal you can become a State Senator, too!!!

Anonymous said...

It is definitely the power of incumbency. Once someone wins twice, they are there for life.

In fact, I think there are only four seats that are up for grabs in 2008 (unless there are retirements):

R Seats: Hurlihey and Kissel
D Seats: Maynard and Finch

Now open seats are where it gets interesting. If any of these people retire or run for higher office, their seats will be in play:

R Seats: Roarbach, Capiello, Caliguiri (if any run for Johnson's seat)

D Seats: Crisco, Meyer

Bottom line is that the State Senate is likely to stay how it is for a while. If everything falls to crap in 2008, Democrats still hold 20 seats. If everything goes our way, we could hold up to 27. But does anything over 24 really matter?

Anonymous said...

Let's see...either the the D's ran all weak candidates or it had something to do with the National tide. When you see incumbents like Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons lose, I think that tells a story for those who care to know.

Anonymous said...

The power of incumbency is nonsense. It gets chipped away at all the time in CT and it just got a whopping nationwide in the House of Representatives.

OrangeTownBlueDem said...

Power of incumbency? How about an election cycle dominated by the US Congressional and Senate races, leaving the voters with no appetite to consider the state races. While "change" was the message flooding the airwaves, the voters sought safety in the status quo of their local representatives.

What I find astonishing is that Democratic State Reps and Senators won with huge margins, yet during their campaigns, went out of their way to avoid endorsing Lamont or Lieberman. If you're winning by more than 20%, why not use that momentum to help fellow Democrats?

Anonymous said...

That's funny Anon. 6:12. Most of our state legislators are very selfish and only care about their own election. You are asking too much of them to care about others!

Anonymous said...

Jodi's life would be far easier if she had spent more time campaigning in Trumbull and Groton to prevent a supermajority

Anonymous said...

Jodi got a veto proof majority of her favotite party, the Democratic Party, she should be able to proceed with her big government agenda unabated while blaming the Democrats if she gets criticized for going too far. She's a winner for sure.

Anonymous said...

The 18th switched parties--from Republican Cathy Cook to Democrat Andy Maynard.