Wednesday, November 08, 2006

So Now What?

CT-02 is still in play, but the 2006 election here in Connecticut is basically over.


What happens now?

How will Jodi Rell, who has used veto power to accomplish at least some of what she wants, deal with a Democratic supermajority? Will she be able to accomplish any of what she wants (whatever that is), or will Democrats call all the shots?

Will Democrats be able to work together to overturn a single veto, should it come to that? Is James Amann a strong enough Speaker to effectively counter the governor? Will he be able to push through universal health care, as Democrats have been promising?

Will the Republican Party on the state level (outside of the governor's office) continue to be essentially irrelevant? Is this the end for George Gallo?

Will Lt. Governor-elect Michael Fedele have any role in governing or policy-making? Is he the heir-apparent to Jodi Rell?

Will Republicans regroup in the 5th CD (and maybe the 2nd) for 2008? Will Democrats ever be able to take the 4th?

What role will blogs and Connecticut's nascent blogosphere play in the future, now that the Lamont campaign is done? What will happen to all of the sites dedicated to coverage of the Senate race?

Lots to digest.


tessa said...

Amann will work with Rell/Rowland just fine. Don't worry about him....He is a DINO.

You write "Will he be able to push through universal health care, as Democrats have been promising?" Jim Amann is not really interested in this. He believes in "individual responsibility".

In the middle of attempting to discuss emergency contraception for rape victims with him in the Spring, he decided to give me his canned stump speech about his cancer and how it was his own fault for smoking cigars and eatting junk food. I had heard him give this speech 4 other times already in 2006. How this relates to a 16 ear old girl getting gang-raped is somewhat beyond me.

As for his re-election for Speaker of the House, I recommend the Dem Reps draft Chris Donovan.

As for the Connecticut Legislature, where I usually say "I can say no more", I now recommend that someone follow the money, for all legislators and all PACs.

I still have no identity other than my own. I live in Milford. My email address is tmarquis at newstandardinstitute dot com.

Paul Vance said...

Now what? For some ice their sore poll standing feet, for others lick their wounds.

For Democrats, putting our fractured party back together. We had a lot of huge wins yesterday, but after these bruising fights, there needs to be a time for unity.

Democrats won big, but I heard many discussions about the increasing power of the unaffiliated voters.

turfgrrl said...

Paul: Both parties have to rebuild actually. The unaffiliated voters represent people who don't want to engage in party politics in CT at a time when both parties need an infusion of new blood and new thinking.

Aldon Hynes said...

What next? An interesting question. I wrote about that a few days ago.

When I joined Ned's campaign many months ago, there was an agreement that I could blog, but that on Connecticut blogs, I needed to be sensitive to my previous role with the DeStefano campaign and focus primarily on that race. I've blogged a little bit here and there over the past nine months, but have kept my presence here relatively low key.

With the election over, I'm back. I hope people take a little time to read a few of my recent blog posts at Greater Democracy:

Winners and Losers,
What happens next?
Post Election Day Blues
(They are also on Orient Lodge, but that server is down.

They give some of my thoughts on what happens next, especially around the community of bloggers here in Connecticut.

Genghis Conn said...

Thanks, Aldon. It's good to have you back.

Anonymous said...

Bloomberg for President - an independent run that will bring fear to the 2 major parties!

Anonymous said...

John Kissel in the 7th pulls it out again. Three cheers for Somers! And Suffield...! And the Granbys...!

Anonymous said...

Looks like the state dems actually have to do something now...Rell, like the '48 "Do Nothing Congress" won't do anything.

How about those coattails??

Anonymous said...

Rell will co-opt every D initiative as her own, and will sign every piece of junk bill they put in front of her. If the Courant comes out in favor of an issue, consider it law. Nice to be here in Connectichusetts.

Anonymous said...

Is this the end for George Gallo?, Absolutley not. He got Rell elected and gave her a Democratic majority in the legislature to blame for everything that goes wrong because she can'T get things done. Gallo should be exalted as the next karl Rove who gave the President the same thing this time around.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>Is this the end for George Gallo?

Probably - but not due to any failures here. In fact were it not for his management of the RNC funded Victory 06 team it would have been even worse. Simmons would have gone down by similar numbers as Johnson and Chris would have lost as well.

Rumor has it he's been offered a series of other political opprotunities in the mid 6 digit neighborhood.

George Gallo virtually single handedly brought the CT Republican out of debt after a long long time.

Anonymous said...

Gallo getting job offers is no surprise but the CT GOP lost ground on his watch. Yes, he should be exalted.

ctblogger said...

My highlight of the night...Bill Finch losing :-)

Anonymous said...

You mean until he won.

cgg said...

I bet Russo runs for Mayor against Fabrizi. When I profiled him it felt like that's where he was headed.

Anonymous said...

The margin of Russo's loss to Finch was greater this time around than in 2004. He'll lose if he runs for mayor. He should try the council - student council.

bluestater said...

All is not lost for Democrats in the 4th CD.

Cross-posted from My Left Nutmeg:

I want to argue here that Lamont can beat Shays in 2008 for a House seat, if Ned is up for it. And I'd like to propose sketches of a plan for Ned to win.

It would be a hard fought contest. Shays has overwhelming entrenched support in Fairfield County, for a number of reasons. Above all, Shays is rightfully seen as a thoughtful, patient, very warm human being with excellent constituent services. Despite all the political talk of Shays "going unhinged" among us lefties, the fact remains, this description of Shays is quite accurate -- at least as far as his public persona is concerned and people describe him who know him one-on-one. Shays is something of an institution in Fairfield County... at least among middle-class to wealthy whites in Fairfield County. But this is a key point. More on this point below.
Farrell lost this time around because she failed to define her own stance on the war. A lot of voters that I spoke to said, "I don't like Shays because he's been defending Bush's foreign policy. But I trust him, and I don't trust Farrell. She won't say what she'll do in Iraq." And this is true. Farrell did not call for a timetable and was not clear about a plan -- unlike Lamont.


a) Lamont's anti-war status garnered him respect among Fairfield County Republicans. It was painted as kookery by Rush Limbaugh-style Republicans, but the Metro North crowd hates them as much as they hate Ted Kennedy. This is true despite the fact that Lamont lost considerably in the 4th CD -- despite some fabulous, heroic efforts on the part of the Lamont ground staff. Keep in mind that Fairfield County has always been very much Lieberman country, because he's from Stamford. Plus, Fairfield County has many Republicans and Mr. Bloomberg's people invaded during election week. Lamont lost Fairfield County because he wasn't seen beyond a single-issue candidate there, because he never escaped the anti-war meme (the New York Times and Daily News didn't help) But that doesn't matter in 2008 because...

b) In Fairfield County, Ned can really play up his business background. He can start cultivating his business ties now by getting backing from real strong liberal New York Democratic donors to take on Shays. Ned wouldn't have to dig into his own pockets again. If he wants to, Ned can stand at Metro North stations for two years and get to know every commuter between Greenwich and Fairfield.

c) The economy needs to take a downturn. Which, I betcha, it will, over the next two years, indicators are pointing that way, and it's the hugest challenge that Democrats nationwide are going to face. They've got to frame the economic downturn as Bush's fault from day one because of the war and a bust from an unregulated economy, otherwise they'll get blamed for it and I betcha we'll lose lots of seats in 2008. But a downturned economy is good for Lamont. He just has to say that it is Chris Shays' fault -- for backing the war, for letting spending and growth go unchecked -- and people will believe him because he's a multi-millionaire -- and Shays is a career politician at this point.

d) Thusly wins Ned southern Fairfield County. Meanwhile, he wins northern Fairfield County (Bridgeport, etc.) because he's a Democrat.

This also hinges on...

e) Iraq becoming more of a quagmire. Which I think it will. Cause Bush is never going to allow the Democratic congress to pull all the troops out in the next two years. And/or the Democrats do some investigating in the House over the next few years into the war's false pretenses, and really discover some nasty crap about Bush. In any case, Ned's stance on the war is vindicated. He hardly would have to talk about the war at all. He could run on his other credentials.

f) Shays-Lamont debates would be amazing. Here you have a man with little business experience (Shays) arguing against social programs like universal health care. And a man with great business saavy (Lamont) arguing for them. It completely turns the tables on the traditional view of Republicans as being the wealthy ones. It would startle the consciousness of Fairfield County Republicans.

g) Shays may be a warm person, good one-on-one, but so is Lamont. Everyone I know who met Lamont personally, except for one, really liked him. His one-on-one skills are his strength... but clearly not his mass media presence (debate performances, Mentos commercial image. I blame much of this on his handlers but that's another story). This ability to reach people one-on-one gives him a much better shot in a Congressional race than in a Senate race, where you meet many more voters personally. Particularly in Fairfield County, where normally the air campaign is not used because of the expense of the New York media market.

All-in-all, it's hard for a Democrat to win in Fairfield County. But if the economy goes sour, if there's a major terrorist attack on New York, the income inequality in SW Connecticut could increase even more, the number of poor grows, the Democratic base grows with it, and Shays may be very vulnerable. Lamont does not have the appeal to females that Farrell did (I'm sure Annie would take exception to that), but he has the capacity to win over a good 5-10% of the New York commuting crowd that she doesn't. If many of those Farrell voters flip to Lamont, too, he's got a really good shot.

Anonymous said...

Is that Connetichusetts, or Massanecticut?

Simmons should replace DonnieR!

Anonymous said...

Dear Bluestater:

Keep dreaming!

If you didn't beat Shays this year, you are never going to beat him.

I won't go into a point-by-point rebuttal; quite frankly, I need a break from political campaigns. I will say this, however; Chris Shays is no longer in the majority and cannot be "tagged" for supporting an out-of-touch Republican leadership. Many - trust me I was out at the polls all day - many people voted for Farrell despite acknowledging their like and appreciation of Chris Shays for one simple reason: they wanted a change in Congress and Washington. Well, they got their change and Chris Shays survived. Those voters will be back with Chris in '08 and I promise you he is going to run again. Chris will shine in the minority; in fact, he becomes an even more important player in Congress (remember the Republican leadership has never been his biggest fans). And, last but not least, George Bush won't be around any more!

Sorry. Shays is our Congressman as long as he wants it - and that is a good thing!

Anonymous said...

This is Shays last term but it won't be Lamont or Farell that puts him in retirement.

Anonymous said...

funny thing happened on the way to the eletion - what's the common denominator -
lieberman primary loss - Roy;

malloy primary loss - Roy
Farell general election loss Roy

add that to curry and it looks like bye bye Roy

Anonymous said...

Anon. 5:09 said: "This is Shays last term but it won't be Lamont or Farell that puts him in retirement."

Please Anon the suspense is killing me, who are you talking about?