Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Open Thread

"I told my party's leaders that it is now our duty to put the elections behind us and work together with the Democrats and independents on the great issues facing this country." -George W. Bush

A recount is underway in the 2nd.

Joe Lieberman looks to end the genocide in Darfur.

The Senate is in "limbo". A recount is expected in VA.
Anything else?


Anonymous said...

So I am reading all the election articles and posts and I am still not understanding it about Murphy and JOhnson. How is it that Murphy won in basically a landslide and Courtney barely won and Farrell lost? I think Bush is actually pretty popular in Waterbury and Danbury and all that area, and they are pretty conservative, so how did Murphy win so big? Johnson spent millions. By the last weekend I was seeing her ads (or ads from other people working on her side) literally 10 times an hour. That's just crazy.

Courtney ran a good campaign, I don't know anything about Farrell's campaign although she seemed like a good candidate, and Shays went totally nuts at the end, but Johnson seemed to be strong all along. I have plenty of friends out that way and I see all her TV ads.

What happened there?

Genghis Conn said...


That's the real question right now. Frankly, I think she shot herself in the foot with some of her outrageously nasty negative ads. This was a negative campaign all around... but people have limits and I think the "drug dealer" ad found them.

Most of what she had going for her was her grandmotherly image. Can you imagine what would have happened to Jodi Rell if she had run ads like that against DeStefano?

cgg said...

The last minute robo calls from the NRCC probably hurt Farrell some.

Fuzzy Turtle said...

I am still not understanding it about Murphy and JOhnson. I canvassed for Murphy in the Fifth District, and I drive my elderly neighbors to doctors appointments on occasions. There are two words (and a letter) to sum up Johnson's demise... MEDICARE PLAN D.

Old people were PISSED OFF, and alot of them came out to vote. She also fell into the 'been there too long' spitoon and had to be dumped. I'm not sure if that was the ONLY thing, but it played a big part.

That and Murphy is articulate and likeable. And he's easy on the eyes. Fortunately or unfortunately, that's part of the equation.

I just hope he does right by the 5th District. I suspect he'll be great.

Anonymous said...

Hi, this is the same anonymous form before. My old roommate lives in Murphy's district and he got like 5 robocalls a day saying horrible things about Murphy for weeks before the election.

I can see what you mean genghisconn about the negative ads backfiring but still I know SImmons ran a really negative mean ad about terrorism and it had a picture of the president of Iran, but that didn't really backfire on him. I just wonder if there is something more going on in the rich towns that is good for democrats, or if somehow Muprhy just had a really good campaign, or what. Will there be any magazine articles about it or will one of you maybe do a comparison of the races? THat would be interesting to read.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:50 -- I'm not sure that Courtney's campaign was that great; it had an anti-Simmons more than a pro-Courtney tone, especially at the outset, which I think hurt him given his somewhat vague name-recognition through much of our district. He's a very likeable person, but that strength didn't always come through in his campaign packaging.

Also, Simmons is a difficult guy for swing voters and moderates to hate; he's somewhat bland (which I don't mean pejoratively in this case) and presented himself well in the sub base interlude. Many of the Republican incumbents who lost this year were the criminal elements and the nutjobs, Sweeney, Weldon, and so on. A narrow victory for Courtney in a somewhat Democratic district, against an incumbent who is not perceptibly psychotic, seems within reason to me.

Anonymous said...

I think Johnson lost this race more than Murphy won it. Her campaign was just horrible. I am sure she was expecting a hard negative campaign from Murphy. His was good but certainly not genius.

I know myself I will never believe the disgraceful MoveOn.Org adds which were as over the top as her drug adds,caught Murphy by surprise. They were responsible for this campaign starting in the gutter, and from there getting worse. They got her completely off message, and she never did force Murphy to deliver any meaningful message of his own beyond empty slogans.

Obviously she cannot out talk, or out wit him. She played the whole time on his turf.

I also think a big mistake was she almost never spoke in any of her adds while Murphy did. Clearly he looked very attractive, young, and energetic, when she did speak she looked just the opposite.

She had 24 years of real accomplishment to talk about, but instead of stressing her long list of accomplishments that dwarfed his, she spent 90% of her effort telling us he raised taxes 27 times. Given that high taxes don't seem to stop other Democrats from getting elected time and time again, in this state that seems to be a message that failed to hit home.

Having said all that Murphy was going to win this seat this year or two years from now... The Republicans need to find a decent candidate for the 5th district ASAP and start their plans to get this seat back in two years. Not 4 years, in 2 years!!!!

Chris Murphy can be beaten in this district, the state Republicans just need to get serious about doing it.

MikeCT said...

Here is my updated summary of the state legislative races. Dems made an extraordinary net gain of seven seats in the House. A couple gains that haven't had much notice - Linda Schofield ousted Heagney in solidly Republican Simsbury, and Tom Christiano booted Jack Stone. Amazing watching the Democratic victories in typically Republican districts. The Family Institute bigots slid further into political irrelevance.

Murphy won because of these reasons cited by others above, and because he and his supporters are damn good grassroots organizers.

Fuzzy Turtle said...

but instead of stressing her long list of accomplishments that dwarfed his Those accomplishments would have been from a decade ago. Her big deal was Medicare Plan D.. which was a big deal for pharmas and HMOs. She sold her constituents down the river, THAT's why she lost.

DanburyDem said...

Anon 8:35 -- I think that is a little wishful thinking on your part.

Murphy's campaign was strong. Johnson's terrorism ads were called some of the most effective in the nation. But he came back strong at her. And he went positive at the end when people were sick of the nasty ads.

Johnson definitely caused herself some problems. But Murphy capitalized on the mistakes.

A 12-point margin against a 20-year incumbent with $5 million to spend takes a good campaign. He is going to be tough to beat in 2008 if he can keep his operation going straight through to the next election.

cgg said...

Thanks for the updated list Mike. I am so happy about Fawcett, and Tom Christiano's win shocked me.

Anonymous said...

Nancy using the terorism ad in early September made as much sense as the Yankees using Mo Rivera in the 6th inning.

That ad put her up almost 10 points in some polls. After it went off she went from 10 up to 12 down in a five week period.

cgg said...

It's official. Democrats have a majority in the Senate!

Anonymous said...

Another great showing by the Foley-Proto-Healey triumvirate.

POCOCK -- Loser
ABBATE -- Loser
SIMMONS -- Loser (and shouldn't have, especially given sub-base save)

Please, do us a favor and run some Democrat campaigns!

Brassett said...

Now that Murphy has the seat, there's no way he's losing it. I'll bet the farm that you won't be able to swing a dead cat in the 5th over the next two years without whacking Murphy on the head. Anytime two voters are together, he'll be the third. As far as the reasons behind his victory, the ad where he talked to the camera sealed the deal, as far as I was concerned.

Anonymous said...

anon 9:42 Simmons started the year as the #1 Dem target seat in the US. the fact he's lasted this far speaks to what Healy did right. As for the rest, Pocock was supposedly a good candidate but got crushed in Berlin. The others were just stone dead losers

Gabe said...

He also is impossible to outwork - he ran his first campaign for state rep while a 1L at UCONN and knocked on every door in the district twice!

Don't be at all surprised to see him running for the Senate at the next vacancy...

Anonymous said...

Murphy has a lock on the 5th for as long as he wants it. The GOP will never get it back, at least in my lifetime. Any GOP who runs against Murph is falling on his word. Murph ran an uninspired campaign. Johnson ran an ordinary campaign. The Iraq war, or more precicely, the mismanagement of the Iraq war won it for Murph and lost it for Johnson. The 5th district is the real loser. Murph will bail as soon as something better comes along. Johnson served long and hard and deserved better.

Anonymous said...

Only one GOP House representative in all of New England? How can that be a good thing?

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:43, who the heck are Foley, Proto and Healey?!?!

Anonymous said...

"Murphy has a lock on the 5th for as long as he wants it. The GOP will never get it back, at least in my lifetime."

Considering that Murphy never holds an office more than four years that last checkup really didn;t go too well for you, did it ?

Anonymous said...

"Only one GOP House representative in all of New England? How can that be a good thing?"

Ask the NY Times and the Courant. Anything Bush wants has to be bad

If Bush endorsed gay marriage the news media would turn into homophobes

Anonymous said...

cgg said: "The last minute robo calls from the NRCC probably hurt Farrell some."

Please stop the whining. Shays simply ran a better campaign then Farrell. His GOTV effort was great and hers was non-existent (just look at the patheticly low voter turnout in Bridgeport). If she had run a real ground operation in Bridgeport, she would have won.

As for the NRCC - the ads they ran were silly - and the DCCC spent far more money for Farrell attacking Shays.

cgg said...

Whining? Hardly. All I did was suggest that the calls might have helped Shays. I'm not thrilled with how the Farrell campaign was run in general, but since Democrats have such a solid majority in the house right now I'm not that upset about it either.

Anonymous said...

Cgg,,, Denny Hastert thought his majority was pretty safe until they started counting votes the other night

Aldon Hynes said...

My two cents on the Murphy/Johnson race: From what I've seen Medicare D was definitely a big part of it. However, you do have to hand it to Chris and his campaign. They ran a great race. From the material that they provided at the JJB dinner and the introductory video where Chris set a goal of knocking on as many doors in the 5th CD as possible, they ran an energetic grassroots campaign that was very exciting.

BrassBoy said...

2 words on the future of the 5th district...


Anonymous said...

2008... Caligiuri and Murphy get token opponents.

2010... Caligiuri for CT-5, Murphy for Governor... no way Murphy sits still... 4 years is his max, til he has to wait for 2016 to run for POTUS... i just hope Murphy's not as liberal as my gut tells me he is.

Anonymous said...

Well my take on the three Republican House Seats are

1. Shay's deserved to lose and Farrell was the only Dem that deserved to win!

2. Johnson ran a horrible campaign I think Murphey is going to be a one termer Mayor Boughton from Danbury is going to be the Republican candidate next time around and will bury Murphey.

3. I don't understand how Simmon's is going to lose he does so much for his district, it's a disgrace how he can save the sub base one year and lose an election the next. Courtney is a little weasel and will prob be entrenched there for a long time if he wins.

Anonymous said...

Caligiuri will never move up from the state senate. In fact he will lose in 2008.

Murphy will not run for governor in 2010. U.S. Senate, maybe, but Dan Malloy will be the next governor of CT. It's no secret that both of them want to be President.

Anonymous said...

I believe three things....First, Murphy has a 4 to 6 year plan for himself in the 5th, then outta here like every place else, before his record, or lack of one, catches up to him.

Second, I believe he can be beaten. Obviously not by some sacrificial lamb, but by a strong, well financed opponent, who can force him to actually say something more than just empty slogans (yah, I know, do the Republicans have even one person anywhere in this state who meets that challenge?).

Third, the 5th district is not a liberal Democratic strong hold like the 1st or 3rd. It is more evenly balanced. Murphy is a liberal through and through, who ran his usual great campaign, while Johnson ran the worst possible. He benefited this year like every other Democrat across this entire nation from the anti Republican incumbent tidal wave. Also, it was clearly time for Nancy to retire.

Therefore in my mind he is beatable, but it will take effort, money, and someone who is as ambitious as Murphy....There must be at least one republican in the entire 5th district who can answer the call.... If not, then do as Murphy did move one in fast, and get to work.

Anonymous said...

Anon. 2:17 said: "It's no secret that both of them want to be President."

I know both of them and it is a secret to me!

It's also funny as hell!

Chris Murphy will never be President. In fact, if he doesn't watch out he may not be re-elected. His toughest opponent in 2008? State Senator Andrew Roraback. Look at his incredible numbers in traditional Democrat towns.

As for Dan Malloy, I submit that he has one of the larger egos on this planet and perhaps that makes him think that he can be President; however, don't you think that the future President showed a little weakness in his nail-biter of a victory over Chris Munger, a virtual unknown, or his primary win over John DeStefano, the worst candidate in the history of CT politics (yes even worse than Bruce Morrison)?

Good one though. Please keep 'em comin'!