Friday, November 17, 2006

2006 2nd Congressional District Map


Popping up quickly to post this map, which is pretty interesting to look at. Basically, Courtney picked up lots of support away from New London County, and Simmons's support there wavered just enough to allow Courtney to grab the close win. Compare this with the 2002-2004 map. Pickups for Dems from 2004: Andover, Bolton, Enfield, Ellington, Vernon (in a big way), Chaplin, Old Lyme, Lyme, Stafford, Killingly and, of course, Willington. Pickups for Republicans from 2004: Hampton.

37 comments:

bluecoat said...

This map is identical to the "outcomes" map that Karl Rove had laid out for the race. As you recall Rowland was a friend of Bush but not a friend of Simmons. Rove's dumping of Simmons was payback for Rowland form Bush. Absolutley brilliant and he got it real close. Courtney will serve one term then Rowland's hand picked choice will tak e him out courtesy of Rove's politics of polarization. Brilliant and fascinating all at once.

Genghis Conn said...

?

bluecoat said...

Rove is all powerful.

disgruntled_republican said...

I really hope you don't beleive that. And it was Simmons who was not a fan of Rowland, not the reverse.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Diebold!!! -Joe Courtney

Anonymous said...

Bluecoat- open the curtains and let some light in...

Anonymous said...

If you really want some insight into why certain towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley went blue this year, compare this map with the Lamont primary victory map. Those voters were the difference in places like Lyme and Essex.

Oh, and what's with this "Diebold" thing? Why would a company that makes cash machines have anything to do with the election outcome?

Anonymous said...

Looks like a strong Republican from Enfield has a shot at becoming a Congressman in the coming years. If Simmons does not go for a rematch in 2008, a Republican from Enfield should challenge Courtney. It will help to lessen the "blue" in the northern section of the district.

Anonymous said...

Give us 5 names in Enfield that would be a possibility.

bluecoat said...

Rowland is till running the CT GOP. Just look at all the Rowland hacks working for Jodi as Commisioners.

And I have a huge window here on the world 12:03

Shadow said...

I actually think Simmons was a special case. If he runs again in 2008, it will be a tight race like this one. If he doesn't, the district demographics favor Courtney to hold this seat for a long time.

disgruntled_republican said...

Anon 1253 -

Assuming you mean Enfield Republicans I can give you three:

Mary Lou Strom
Scott Kaupin
John Kissel

Now this post does not in any way shape or form say that any of them have even thought about it.

Genghis Conn said...

Kissel for Congress? Hmm.

But right now, the best challenger for 2008 is probably Rob Simmons, assuming he doesn't go on to do something else.

Here's a question: is this a Greater Hartford seat, now, or will it continue to be a New London County seat?

disgruntled_republican said...

GC-

I actually think he would be the least likely and again, I'm not saying any of them are even thinking about it.

I agree that Rob is the best candidate for 2008 and it would once again be a close race but alas, I haven't heard what he plans to do...YET.

As for the seat being Hartford v. New London. I think that is up to Mr. Courtney. Rob managed to be visable all over the district. Hopefully Joe will do the same.

Anonymous said...

If you had a brain in your head Bluecoat, you'd be dangerous. Lisa Moody is running whatever is left of the CTGOP and if you knew anything you'd know that she hates the Rowland people and got of rid of as many as she could on day one.

Regale us with your intimate knowledge of Fairfield politics, which of course you do in the Fairfield Citizen weekly, and leave the state stuff for those that have a clue.

bluecoat said...

1:38: Korta was a Rowland hack; just as 49 other commissioners that your incompetent FINGER WAGGING leader, Rell, kept on were.

bluecoat said...

REPUBLICANS HAVE NO SENSE OF HUMOR EITHER there 1:38.

THE REV said...

I think that Simmons is the best choice to run again. People like a rematch and he does not have to work to get his name out.

Others named are good in their own right...but CD2 is a big district and their names are not as known.

Saying that I would be in favor of Kaupin or Kissel if Rob backed out.

Mary Lou is also a great name, but I think she would decline....

disgruntled_republican said...

Rev -

I agree, was just entertaining Anon's notion. BTW, congrats on the appointment and the invoice is in the mail. ;-)

THE REV said...

Thanks Dis Grunt....Have a great Thanksgiving.

CTKnows said...

Bluecoat, please adjust your aluminium foil cap, the aliens are taking control of your thoughts. Rowland has far more pull with the D's than with Rell

VA join Ahh said...

Let's see, in the MOST Democratic district held by a Republican in America, in the worst year for Republicans in more than 20 years, Republican Rob Simmons only loses by 90 VOTES! Conversely, in the MOST Republican district of CT, CD 5, 12-term incumbent Nancy Johnson gets torched. You tell me who the stronger candidate is. Rob Simmons will be back in his basement studio on Capitol Hill by this time 2008.

And Bluecoat, I hope at this point you've realized that it's lefties like you, and not the right-wingers, who perpetuate Rove's omnipotent divinity. Good humor, but not good analysis.

I would also encourage you to stop on by wherever the CTGOP HQ is now--check for Rowland footprints. I think the only things you'll find are Moody's t-rex tracks amid the ashes.

Grumpy said...

Fascinating map GC. It got me thinking a bit, so I went and pulled up the town-by-town numbers from '02 and '06. Looks to me like Enfield and Mansfield held the key to Courtney's win.

Enfield turnout rose 7% over 2002 and it swung into the Courtney column.

Mansfield turnout jumped 31% over 2002. (!) and Courtney increased his share of the vote there from 67% to 71%. (Joe should send a big thank-you to whomever ran his GOTV at Storrs.)

One other interesting tidbit... Courtney picked up 3 points in Groton. I expected Simmons wouldn't loose ground down there. I guess I over-estimated the benefits (for him) of saving the sub base.


P.S. to anon 2:59 / 3:05 - Can we please finally drop "the most Democratic district held by a Republican in America" crap? This is "true" only on paper. In reality, the district's voting patterns are split right down the middle, making it one of the most solidly "swing" districts in the nation.

Anonymous said...

do we have a map like this yet for the US senate race? or atleast some town by town numbers?

wtfdnucsubsailor said...

The Courtney campaign was successful in tieing Simmons to the Bush Administration, showing where he only voted against the administration when it didn't count. The Simmons cause was not helped by a comment by the then Majority Leader that "...we let those guys (Republican moderates) vote their district whenever possible." The failures of the Republican House leadership contributed to the 91 vote loss. Rob's role in "saving the SUBASE" just kept the loss very narrow. Unless he gets a job he can't refuse for a salary he can't refuse, I would expect to see Rob seek the seat again in 2008. The action of the Democratic congress and Joe Courtney in the next two years will determine if Courtney is able to retain the seat. If the War in Iraq is settled and the DEMS run an effective Congress (not outsmarted by Bush like Gingrich was outsmarted by Clinton '94-'96) Courtney will be a shoe in. The two candidates for President may also contribute or not contribute coattails. We will just have to wait and see.

bluecoat said...

Abroimaitis at DECD was a Rowland hack and Jodi kept him on - and the list goes on. And I am impressed that Lisa the Liar is running the GOP these days. Besides Jodi telling us there ought to be a law aginast what Lisa did she's still on the job. And speakin' of "the job" DeSanctis got a THUMPIN' from Drew in the 132nd because he took his clue from the CT GOP Central and some hard liners in the House. And incumbents Stone in the 134th and Tymniak in the heavily Republican 133rd didn't go down because of Bush and Iraq, they went down becasue they were out of touch and now out of jobs. There ain't no more Republicans in the HOuse from Fairfield where Republicans outnumber Democrats.

And say what you will ctknows, Rell is following the Rowland model to a tee - compromising with the D's, holding press conferences on nonssense spending, spending like there is no tomorrow and leaving govt to run wild.

As for Rove, he's a jerk, but a smart jerk, whose politics of polarization works with the right wing wackos and neocons - while many of them are active in CT GOP politics, they don't make up much of the CT GOP electorate and, ergo, Bush is now tkaing the THUMPIN' and agreeing to work with the D's. Hey maybe we'll even get a decent immigration bill instead of what Shays wants to send all 11 million illegals back home - of course it won't be long before Shays co-opts to the left and aligns with Bush.

ct_husky said...

Grumpy, the GOTV operation here at UConn was a non-partisan affair run by a coalition of groups operating as the UConn Votes program. It was a combination of the Undergraduate Student Government, CT Public Interest Research Group (ConnPIRG), the College Democrats, and the College Republicans (among a few other groups) that really pushed the voter registration drive and got students to the polls.

Weicker Liker said...

The House Committee On Administration held it's Office Lottery for newly elected members of Congress in Washington today.

Chris Murphy drew # 44 of 49 lottery numbers and got a terrible office location!

Congressman-Elect Murphy will spend the next two years in the dreaded Cannon House Office Building "attic" in Cannon HOB 501.

To get to his office you need to take two elevators. He will also have a long walk to vote on the house floor!!

However, Joe Courtney made out in the whole process.

Due to the fact that the status of his race was not settled in time, Congressman-Elect Courtney will occupy Congressman Rob Simmons office, in Cannon House Office Building 215. This office space is a great location.

Grumpy said...

ct_husky said...
Grumpy, the GOTV operation here at UConn was a non-partisan affair run by a coalition of groups operating as the UConn Votes program. It was a combination of the Undergraduate Student Government, CT Public Interest Research Group (ConnPIRG), the College Democrats, and the College Republicans (among a few other groups) that really pushed the voter registration drive and got students to the polls.



What do you want to bet someone from the CTGOP takes those college Republicans out to the woodshed? "Nonpartisan" coalition or not, those were overwhelmingly Democratic voters they were registering and getting to the polls.

Major Minority said...

Looks like Courtney's margin is now down to 83 votes. 8 votes for Simmons were never scanned in during the recount in Montville. These new optical scan machines do not seem to be very "recount friendly". Could there be more "unscanned votes" out there?

Paul said...

You shouldn't overlook Windham when you study this map. There's a huge Democratic edge in registrations and no Republican party to speak of. The Dems have historically underperformed though. The margin they contributed this time is a bit of a breakthrough. I'll guess it's a combination of Lamont registers and a fairly active local anti-war scene. The Windham/Mansfield vote could be even better for Joe in two years. With over 20,000 total registered combined it could be formidable in a presidential year.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the J-I's fawning coverage of Courtney paid off

That and the WASP's bailing in the Lyme's

Chris MC said...

Yes, it's now a proven fact:

As goes Willington, so goes the Nation.

Sleep well, Willingontonions.

Anonymous said...

Courtney isn't going to lose in 2008. Joe has so much integrity and credibility to his name over his many years of great service he has given to the state as a lawyer. In addition to his service as a public health official in the legilature.

Joe has this seat all to himself because he has earned it by defeating a solid republican candidate in Rob Simmons.


The gotv in Enfield, Vernon, and the Uconn-storrs area (tolland, wincham, coventry..ect) was nothing less than spectactular.

The amount of college students and young people who got involved was unbelievable. The results showed in Courtney's performance in the northern part of the district and Simmons wavering of votes in the shoreline communities.

If Simmons doesn't run in 2008 I wouldn't be surprised if Courtney win by atleast 15-20%. This is because the democrats will be motivated to elect the first democratic president since 1996.

Brian said...

I can say I'm pretty interested to run for state senate by the year 2012. I just graduated from Uconn and I have intentions to run in Northen Connecticut or in the Boston area where I may move to.

Knowing that Ned Lamont probably won't run for senate again I hope Chris Murphy takes a shot at running for Dodd's senate seat in 2010 or Lieberman's when he retires in 2012.

bluecoat said...

from Rell asks all commissioners to resign, which she also did when she first took over for Rowland who had been called on some issues with his governance is DSS Commissioner Patricia A. Wilson-Coker. Wilson-Coker was appointed by Rowland and Insurance Commisioner Cogswell also was a Rowland appointee and contrary to the spin it is not cutomary for a re-elected guv to cal for these resignations. Sounds like political cover to me.

And more from the Rowland legacy is, of course, Tacco getting told to take 15 days off from his once and a while job. I thought they'd at least give him a dunce cap to wear on those days off.

on the fence said...

Looking at that map, it's hard to believe Simmons lost. It looks red with a few blue highlights.