Tuesday, November 28, 2006

1st and 3rd District Maps: Zzzzzz

Is there anything the Republicans can do to win (or even do respectably well) in these districts? They haven't won the 1st since 1956, and the 3rd has been in Democratic hands since 1982.

Or are Larson and DeLauro set for life?

I can think of only one thing, really, that would pose a threat to either of them--and that's if we lose a CD in 2010.


Anonymous said...

Delauro will die in her seat. larson has some baggage that if exploited would give him some trouble.

Anonymous said...

what's up with that Republican "stronghold" in Hartland??

GMR said...

Is there anything the Republicans can do to win (or even do respectably well) in these districts?

Doing respectably well doesn't accomplish anything except spending a lot of time and money. That's why the people running in these districts are marginal candidates. Across the country, there are probably at least 200 such districts out of the 435. Connecticut has non partisan gerrymandering, and is one of the few states that does. In most states, districts are almost ironclad D or R districts, and go the other way only in the event of a major scandal.

Is Connecticut likely to lose another seat in 2010? I thought we were ok this time.

Matt said...

We're not expected to lose a seat - see a breakdown here

Hey 3rd CD, trade you Stratford and Milford for Trumbull, Shelton, and Monroe?

Anonymous said...

2002 was easy for the parties, when Maloney and Johnson battled for the new 5th, but how do you all think we would handle 2 Democrats being thrown into the same district. Suppose Vernon or Cheshire ended up in the 1st or 3rd? Supposing Murphy and Larson are still in the House, do you think it would come to a primary? Would Murphy defer to Larson? Would Larson hand down the seat to Murphy?

Thankfully, it doesn't get much more hypothetical than this. The way things have been trending, though, Colorado will have about 300 seats in Congress before we know it.

Anonymous said...

Larson's baggage would need to fill a C-17 for him to lose the 1st District, even as an open seat it's rather safe for the Democrats as the 2001 remap tried to put R precincts in Glastonbury and the Farmington Valley in more competitive districts.

The 3rd District once had its share of competitive races---R's won in '80 and exceeded 47% in 1982, 1984 and 1990. In the 1980's and early 1990's GOP strength in suburban New Haven was much stronger than now. This area also saw the GOP Presidential vote recede sharply from 1988 levels. The defeats of Aniskovich and Smith in '04 signalled the end of safe R legislative seats in this region, so they don't have an obvious person to step up when DeLauro moves on.

An open seat in the 3rd would answer the question if the district is as much of a D stronghold now as the 1st, or since liberal nemesis Lieberman crushed in the 'burbs here, a volatile electorate has simply punished the R's for weak candidates and weak campaigns.

Anonymous said...

What baggage are you referring to???

Partying with Capitol Hill Interns??

Supporting William Jefferson's legal defense fund????

Supporting ethically challenged John Murtha for Majority Leader??

Anonymous said...

District 1 will never be Republican in its current configuration.

District 3 could go Republican when it is an open seat (DeLauro will never lose), but it will likely stay Democrat if DeStefano runs for it. Even if he doesn't, there isn't an obvious R to run for it (I would have said Aniscovich, but that's not realistic anymore)

MikeCT said...

Republicans could follow Miriam Masullo's winning strategy and attack Larson's and DeLauro's membership in the Catholic church.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:51 On Larson I was thinking the Jefferson issue could create a stir if it was used as a campaign issue. With Murtha he was just following Pelosi's direction and the intern rumors are difficult to prove. He has also chosen to make some seedy characters as part of his inside circle. Someday, it could come back to bite him.

Anonymous said...

Matt, not sure i buy DK's word on this. Seems to be CT is poised to lose another rep in 2010, the question is which one. Shays is safe, of course, because the 4th is actually growing. the 1st and 5th seem to be the most vulnerable.

as for Larson and DeLauro, why not primary against them?

Anonymous said...

Murphy lives in Cheshire. No offense to him, but if he primaried Rosa, he wouldn't carry Cheshire.

Rosa would destroy him in the town he calls home.

Not sure about the result of a Murphy/Larson matchup.

Gabe said...

Anon 9:34 - you might not trust Daily Kos on whether CT will ose a seat in 2010, but the basis for the linked post was what the US Census Bureau expects to be states that will lose seats in 2010.

Also, if CT does lose a seat in 2010, there is no guarentee that the legislature will be able to simply combine the bulk of two districts. The path of least resistance may be to completely redraw the state into 4 districts.

However they were to do it, I would expect the 1st and 3rd districts to be mostly safe from going away because of the difficulty of placing Hartford or New Haven into other districts and still having a balance. I would bet on the 5th getting cut into three roughly equal pieces (the fifth borders the 1st, 3rd, and 4th) - the 4thgetting a smaller piece and the 1st and 3rd each giving up a small piece to the 2nd.

That said, I ( and the US CB) don't think we need to have this conversation until 2020 at the earliest.

Anonymous said...

Len Fasano would give Rosa a run for her money if he won and would destroy any other Democrat, including DeStafano.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the "it's time for a change" slogan won't work in these two districts.

Anonymous said...

If Rosa and John were BOTH found in bed with bin Laden they couldn't lose. Time for the GOP to focus elsewhere.