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Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Poll: Murphy Just Ahead of Johnson

A poll commissioned by the Working Families Party, which supports Chris Murphy, shows Murphy with a slight lead over Nancy Johnson in the 5th District.
The poll showed that 38 percent of the respondents supported Murphy, 35 percent supported Johnson while 28 percent are undecided. (Lucas)

I would very much like to see some independent polling on this race.

Source

Lucas, Fred. "Poll: Challenger has slight lead over Nancy Johnson." Danbury News-Times 18 July, 2006.

57 Comments:

Blogger Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

For purposes of balance, we took a poll of Johnson financial supporters and would you believe it?

100% of them chose Nancy over Murphy.


Similar bias in both polls.

7/19/2006 08:21:00 AM  
Blogger Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

For purposes of balance, we took a poll of Johnson financial supporters and would you believe it?

100% of them chose Nancy over Murphy.


Similar bias in both polls.

7/19/2006 08:21:00 AM  
Blogger Gio said...

Are we to trust a poll commisioned by the working families party??? I think not.

7/19/2006 08:46:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, I don't see a reason to question the legitimacy of this poll, but it's still really meaningless. I doubt too many people in the 5th are following the election.

It's going to be close, but until the candidates start advertising (probably in the last couple of weeks of the election) there ain't no way we can accurately gauge public sentiment with a simple poll like this.

7/19/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger The Architect said...

The day I win the powerball is the day this blog would post a poll by the GOP or some other right-leaning organization stating a Republican candidate was beating a 12 term Democrat incumbent.

7/19/2006 08:55:00 AM  
Blogger MikeCT said...

This poll follows an April poll showing Murphy with a 10 point lead. Reservations about both sources have been noted, but even if the leads were reversed in favor of Johnson, the results would be remarkable, given that Johson has raised much more, she has been flooding the district with TV ads slamming Murphy and praising her, she is a long-term incumbent, the MoveOn ads didn't mention Murphy, Murphy has not aired any ads, and media coverage of the race has been minimal. If his work for Charlotte Koskoff is any indicator, he may just out-organize her.

7/19/2006 08:57:00 AM  
Blogger Genghis Conn said...

If the Republicans have a poll they'd like to share, we'll post it.

7/19/2006 09:02:00 AM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

Sounds like a great poll, was it taken at a Murphy fundraiser?

7/19/2006 09:02:00 AM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

Now for the important part of the article:

This week, Congressional Quarterly said "Johnson is at present a clear favorite to win her 13th term ... in part because hers is the least Democratic of the three districts and in part because of her electoral record."

Meanwhile, the Johnson-Murphy race was not included in Congress Daily’s list of top 25 competitive house races issued this week

7/19/2006 09:03:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds like Working Families got stiffed on their poll. If you're gonna pay for a biased poll, you should be ahead by at least 10 points!

7/19/2006 09:23:00 AM  
Blogger The Architect said...

I'll listen to what CQ has to say before any poll commissioned by a political party on behalf of its own candidate.

7/19/2006 09:28:00 AM  
Blogger CC said...

Anonymous: Advertising in the district is well under way!

And, Congress Daily may not think it's one of the 25 most competitive races, but it is without question a competitive race.

7/19/2006 09:33:00 AM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

Here is a prediction from an out of towner, I bet Murphy does not beat Johnson in his 16th district (Waterbury, Wolcott and Cheshire).

I find it really funny that on his website, Cheshire is referred to as his 'hometown'. Since when?

7/19/2006 09:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like to see independent polling on ANY of the races.

7/19/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Blogger connpolitico said...

Right, also the NRA commissioned a poll and found that 100% of respondents want every man, women, and child to have unlimited access to guns.

7/19/2006 09:50:00 AM  
Blogger CTswingvoter said...

How is it that these supposed "third parties" always endorse Democrats? Working Families says that the two-party system is part of the problem, yet it constantly endorses politicians that are members of one of the two parties. Oh, wait a minute- Working Families gets funding from SEIU- obviously no connection to the Dems. We aren't stupid here people.

7/19/2006 09:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I believe that Murphy bought a house in Cheshire a year or so ago, no? I know that his Senate District Address is in Cheshire. Wouldn't that make it his hometown?

7/19/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

I hear the same poll has Paul Vance with a 20% lead over all comers. LOL

7/19/2006 10:02:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chris Murphy should embrace the Working Families Party endorsement and shun the Dem endorsement- God knows he has found his home with WFP- they are radical union supporting left wing crackpots just like Murphy!

7/19/2006 10:04:00 AM  
Blogger JerryDucksworth4334 said...

The poll taken is by the same group that showed Maloney beating Johnson one week before his landslide victory over Johnson in 2002_ so it must be a credible poll.

7/19/2006 10:07:00 AM  
Blogger Otis0906 said...

Earth to Murphy- getting excited about the WF endorsement and poll results would be like Johnson getting excited over Pat Buchanan's endorsement. Chris, this ain't San Fran it's CT-5.... have you spent any time in Waterbury, Salisbury, Avon, or Danbury? Not exactly filled with lefties waiting for the revolution to come.

7/19/2006 10:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, if the April lib poll showed Murphy with a 10 point lead, and the July lib poll shows him within the margin of error, then I would conclude that things are trending in Nancy's favor.

BTW--no offense to the unions, but good luck if you think Chris Murhpy will out-organize Dave Boomer.

7/19/2006 10:17:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mukrphy shows his true colors- he's as left as they come and the worst kind- a limousine liberal- he grows up a privileged kid in West Hartford, goes to Williams, and becomes a lawyer- a real connection to the working families Chris!

7/19/2006 10:17:00 AM  
Blogger LMcfly5 said...

Chris Murphy wasn't born with a silver spoon in his mouth- he had to work hard moving to different towns to get to where he is now.

7/19/2006 10:23:00 AM  
Blogger Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

MightyMouse1 said... "...
Cheshire is referred to as his 'hometown'. Since when?
"

Since he stiffed another of his own supporters by purchasing a house in Cheshire (he was never once spotted at his former Darling St Southington address) from a real estate agent other than the Southington Democratic Town Committee Chair.

A real loyal guy that Murphy.

7/19/2006 10:24:00 AM  
Blogger carlosj1985 said...

Hey Chris, now that WF has endorsed you are you ready to come out and endorse Ned?

7/19/2006 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger Genghis Conn said...

Wow. What's with the anger about Murphy?

7/19/2006 10:29:00 AM  
Blogger bluedevil19851 said...

Only Murphy could try and pull off getting the WF endorsement and supporting Lieberman- sounds very "Kerryesque" say one thing, do another.

7/19/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Blogger bluedevil19851 said...

Only Murphy could try and pull off getting the WF endorsement and supporting Lieberman- sounds very "Kerryesque" say one thing, do another.

7/19/2006 10:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think it is anger- more just trying to get to the truth of who Chris is. There seems to be no clear answer- He says what he thinks we want to hear.

7/19/2006 10:37:00 AM  
Blogger disgruntled_republican said...

I hope someone gets Nancy a transcript of this page...and if they do, Hi Nancy, we still love you up here in Enfield!

7/19/2006 10:51:00 AM  
Blogger Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Genghis Conn said... "
Wow. What's with the anger about Murphy?


He's a snake.

No one I know in the game (on the field, not in the stands) isn't somewhat "bilingual".

Like Bruce and others on the field, I have respect for the players on the other team and in fact some are fairly close personal friends.

There is a certain ethic to the game and the only savings grace to it that I've ever seen is that Politics is warm blooded - or should be when played correctly.

ie: When Clinton dispite some criticism appointed former DNC Chair Ron Brown as Commerce Sect. I was impressed. For Bill Clinton that was the right thing to do.

Murphy on the other hand uses people and discards them.

He spoke to several area medical groups and promised one thing and then voted the opposite. After cashing the good doctors checks of course.

As state rep (81st district entirely w/in Southington) he spoke to the Town Council and inquired if they would support his anti-smoking proposal.
The Council said "no".

He did it anyway.

Get a load of my avatar - I can't stand the guy.

7/19/2006 10:52:00 AM  
Blogger coffeeaddict1234 said...

Speaking of Chris Murphy - please Chris we know you are reading this - please either answer the questions we pose to you and your campaign manager or take down the blog. Just because you may recieve some tough questions on your blog about your support of Joe Lieberman doesn't mean you shouldn't answer them. blogs are for a free flow of ideas not a vehicle where you pick and choose what questions you want to answer because they make you look good. Those are called press releases Chris don't get them confused with blogs.

7/19/2006 11:13:00 AM  
Blogger coffeeaddict1234 said...

Speaking of Chris Murphy - please Chris we know you are reading this - please either answer the questions we pose to you and your campaign manager or take down the blog. Just because you may recieve some tough questions on your blog about your support of Joe Lieberman doesn't mean you shouldn't answer them. blogs are for a free flow of ideas not a vehicle where you pick and choose what questions you want to answer because they make you look good. Those are called press releases Chris don't get them confused with blogs.

7/19/2006 11:14:00 AM  
Blogger coffeeaddict1234 said...

Speaking of Chris Murphy - please Chris we know youre reading this - please either answer the questions we pose to you and your campaign manager or take down the blog. Just because you may recieve soe tough questions on your blog about your support of Joe Lieberman doesn't mean you shouldn't answer them. Blogs are for a free flow of ideas not a vehicle where you pick and choose what questions you want to answer because they make you look good. Those are called press releases Chris don't get them confused with blogs.

7/19/2006 11:25:00 AM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

Is it too late to get a petitioning candidate in this race?

To answer Anonymous 10:02 AM,I thought your 'hometown' was where you grew up, not the latest place you move for political reasons.

7/19/2006 11:26:00 AM  
Blogger janes1978 said...

I've noticed the same thing I posted two questions on issues and one on Ned and he never answered them.

7/19/2006 11:29:00 AM  
Blogger Jandtheargonauts said...

A little perspective on Murphy's door knocking "strategy," by going door to door in Danbury, he accomplished what he was looking for - earned media coverage from the local paper. This is a great introduction of Murphy to the local folks who do not know him as of yet. Plus, he creates buzz (witness this discussion about the merits of door-knocking) so he's accomplished a few things without spending a dime.

Now, if we are talking about employing door to door as a field tactic for a candidate throughout the 5th CD then I think we should take a look a back at Mr. Boomer's previous experience with Mark Nielsen in 1998 and 2000. In 2000, Nielsen (and Boomer was on board for a short period of time) embarked on an aggressive door knocking strategy. Supposedly, he had hit 4,000 doors by March and proclaimed that he was well on the way of reaching of every swing voter.

The Maloney team in comparison opened 6 field offices that were staffed 16 paid workers and pounded the district. With Congress in session until the last week of October, Maloney did not knock on doors but considerably outraised Nielsen.

We know that Jim won handily in 2000 but the end lesson is clear - the candidate's time is the most precious resource on a campaign. You can spend hour after hour knocking on doors or like Murphy has up to this point, spend hour after hour raising money on the phone.

There is nothing wrong with door knocking to secure a favorable print story but Murphy would not have $1 million cash on hand if he had not spend hours doing what he should be doing which is to raise money.

7/19/2006 11:42:00 AM  
Blogger bluecoat said...

Murphy's not alone, Jodi only blogs one way too but even moreso as she wants us to contact our legisaltors rather than her.

7/19/2006 11:57:00 AM  
Blogger BRubenstein said...

ACR..TY for the compliment..as you know ive actually run or have had senior operative status in several successful races...and i still respect good republican operatives when i see them.Say hello to my friend Stve Bafundo if you see him.

I dont care for the game of a person saying one thing and doing another..thats why i sometimes criticise my own dems when i feel they did wrong.As you know a WFP poll means nothing right now..let see what the Q poll and Uconn polls say...One thing we do know right now...both candidates are doing in house polling..which neither is releasing...which makes me think the numbers are close.

Id be interested in what you think?

7/19/2006 11:58:00 AM  
Blogger BRubenstein said...

ACR Ty for the compliment...

7/19/2006 12:00:00 PM  
Blogger bluecoat said...

the cable guy made the front page of the NYT in his bid against Joe

7/19/2006 12:04:00 PM  
Blogger BRubenstein said...

GC..some of us that actually have run campaigns would like to discuss the more " technical aspects" of the races, rather then just the usual spinning in here..can you get a representative of each race to do a live blog in so that we may discuss what each candidate is doing ( and how they are doing it) in various aspects... for instance id be interested in knowing what each candidate is doing and how they are approaching their AB programs..etc.

7/19/2006 12:11:00 PM  
Blogger BrassBoy said...

Don't know if anyone else has heard this, but word around the Brass city is Paul Vance is considering a run as a petitioning Democrat in the 5th.

Perhaps a little dissatisfied with the Murphy campaign thus far?

7/19/2006 12:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems that more than one person has lost their ming around here!

First off: a three fingered monkey could out organize Dave Boomer! For example, as set forth before, I give you the Nielsen race. Now I will acknowledge that Nielsen was an absolute moron, anyone who thought they were winning a congressional election solely by knocking doors, needs to have some serious head work done.

Second: Murphy has been in Danbury a dozen times in the last three or four months - not to mention the last two years. Don't know about any where else in the District but he's certainly been here a lot.

Third: what's his hometown? that's a debating point? Since when was it wrong to move from one part of one's district to another part of the district? If I live there is kind of like home right? Moreover, if you are Southington Democrat - you have a Democratic Rep in Congress - pipe down and give us a hand sending Nancy and the drug companies home in a bag - so that we have one too!

Fourth: Murphy endorese Lamont? Have you lost your minds? Other than George Jepsen who must have momentarily lost his, name one significant state wide Democratic official or candidate who has endorsed Ned? (and by statewide I do not mean state representative candidates who either cannot win or who will easily sail to victor - nor do I mean any first selectman of anywhere) He's come out and indicated he would support the winner of the primary - do not be greedy!

Fifth: polling - the poll is worth what its worth - and this early the margin etc. is probably not that significant - what is, however, important to note is this: even if it is a WFP poll Nancy should be leading by a million - she's not - she's in trouble - and she knows it: otherwise she doesn't run ads in April and May before Murphy was even nominated!

7/19/2006 02:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Come on you guys you are surprised that the guy who has been endorsed by the hard left Working Families and then endorses the hard RIGHT Joe Leiberman would have a problem with using unsavory tatics like not answering his blog because the question posed may make him look bad?

7/19/2006 03:31:00 PM  
Blogger D4Prez08 said...

I need a better reason than nobody else is!! So I'll ask again

Chris- why won't you endorse Ned???

Ned's going to win- get on board.

7/19/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Blogger D4Prez08 said...

I need a better answer than Nobody else is!!! SO, I'll ask again:

Chris- Why won't you endorse Ned??
Ned's gonna win, you should get on board Chris!!!

7/19/2006 03:46:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some of you need to do your homework about Chris Murphy before you start making accusations ... 1.) he did not grow up in West Hartford, he actually grew up in Wethersfield a very middle class town ... no limo's 2.) he did go to Williams College, as did other members of his family ... I'm sure there are a couple of people on this blog that went to a college because it was in the family 3.) he moved to southington, got involved at the local level and worked his way up the political ladder ... he didn't just pull Southington out of a hat and say "hey this looks like a place I could win", if that were the case he would have moved to southington and immediately run for state rep. instead of going from the bottom of local government and moving up step by step ... all of this negative attitude is what gives politics such a bad reputation.

7/19/2006 04:42:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

a call to arms for all Planners & Zoners!... anon... are you saying that P&Z people are the "bottom of local gov't?"

all kidding aside... I thought Murphy was elected to P&Z in Nov '97 and elected State Rep in Nov '98. If so, it seems a bit disingenuous to suggest he hadn't thought his actions through, well ahead of time.

I'm not saying that's bad, but let's be fair about any analysis here.

7/19/2006 05:11:00 PM  
Blogger MikeCT said...

Oooweeee! The Republicans are anxious today! I always find it ironic when Johnson supporters insist that Murphy's campaign should be dismissed as irrelevant, then pile on to attack him as a dangerous threat. It's one or the other, guys!

Murphy has been recognized by a variety of political prognosticators as a strong candidate in a competitive race, including the Cook Political Report, NY Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Stan Rothenberg, DCCC, and even George Will. But the best indicator of the threat is Nancy Johnson, who felt she needed to run what were probably the first attack ads by an incumbent in the nation this year.

coffeeaddict and others,
More than any other candidate in the state, Murphy has made it excrutiatingly clear that he will support the winner of the Democratic Senate primary. I can't even count the number of public statements his campaign has made on this issue, including statements on his blog. In any case, the issue will be moot in 3 weeks when Democrats unite around Lamont for the general election.

Ditto on everything Anonymous 2:15 said.

7/19/2006 05:50:00 PM  
Anonymous A.C. Townley said...

More details of the Working Families poll can now be found on the Connecticut Working Families website at ct-workingfamilies.org. Notes on methodology are included.

What is most interesting, and not mentioned in the Lucas article, is what the polling suggests about Working Families.

Overall favorability of the WFP was highest among registered unaffiliated voters. Furthermore, the poll suggests that the WFP attracts swing voters and some Republicans to vote for Murphy.

The WFP plans a significant independent campaign in the district, which could well attract additional swing voters to Murphy. We don't need a poll to tell us that there are some Republicans and Unafiliateds who aren't thrilled with the Republican administration in Washington. This poll suggests that the WFP could be an important vehicle in attracting those voters -- who might not be thrilled with the Democrats either, to be fair.

There is some historical precedent here. A little know fact of Connecticut politics is that the last Congressional candidate to be cross-endorsed by a minor party was Rob Simmons in 2000. In that election Simmons got 110,000 votes as a Republican and Gejedenson got 111,000 votes as a Democrat. So Gejdenson won, right? Wrong, because Simmons was also on the Independence Party line that year and he received another 4,000 votes from them, giving him the margin of victory.

7/19/2006 09:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MikeCT I couldn't agree with you more. Looks likes Nancy's people are out in full force today! I find it so funny how Republicans dismiss bloggers as "left-wing wackos" but as soon theres a post of a poll that shows them down, they send out a call to arms. Just find it interesting how a supposedly unreliable poll got them all riled up. Hmm maybe they have some real poll numbers that are showing the exact same thing. Get used to the attacks...Republicans have nothing else to run on given the current state of affiars. Fortunately, Nancy has an extensive and incompetent 24 year record that she can't run from. The next few months should be fun!

P.S. Attention all Nedheads: I am a Ned Lamont supporter myself and can't wait for him to beat Lieberman. That being said, we can't have a civil war and split the entire Democratic Party...Chris Murphy and all the other Congressional candidates have said that they will support the Democratic nominee (Ned has said this himself!). That is all we can ask of them. So lay off Chris, Dianne, and Joe Courtney...we're supposed to be on the same team, not enemies. Just wait till August 8 and once we defeat Joe all of the Dems will be able to unite around Lamont.

7/19/2006 09:41:00 PM  
Blogger MikeCT said...

AC Townley,

Actually, I don't see anything about the poll on the Working Families Web site (which seems to have been overhauled overnight).

7/19/2006 10:07:00 PM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

MikeCT, don't you volunteer for the Murphy campaign?

7/20/2006 08:06:00 AM  
Anonymous A.C. Townley said...

details on the poll can be found on www.ct-workingfamilies.org by clicking the photo of Murphy then clikcing the link to see the poll at the bottom of the page.

7/20/2006 08:57:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brassboy--
J. P. Vance got spanked by Murphy in the primary--- why would he run as a petitioning democrat? To split the party???
Real democrats should unite around the primary winner and work hard to take back Congress. We're talking about a Congress that will make huge decisions that will have a huge impact on our country and its citizens.

7/20/2006 10:37:00 PM  

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