Saturday, July 22, 2006

Rasmussen Rumors: Lamont Ahead in Primary, Even in General

According to this post, a new Rasmussen poll may show Lamont up by 10% in the primary, and actually even with Lieberman for the general election. The poll is for premium members only.

I'll confirm / update as the day goes on.

37 comments:

bluecoat said...

Lamont is rich, tax return confirms

bluecoat said...

just for ACR:Street address sparks religious war in 1st Congressional District By Kimberly Phillips, Journal Inquirer 7/21/2006

more business for Connecticuts diners and donut shops on the way

BRubenstein said...

There is no surprise here...the public doesnt like politicians who " hedge their bets" and who seem " to cute by half"...I predicted these numbers in a prior posting.

Furthermore...Lamont and his issues are well within the great tradition of our party and the natural tendency will be to rally around him...this will be helped by his rather optimistic affable personality.

The issue will be...can Lamont broaden his base to encompass some Rep's who are very against the war and a large % of the U's who are into good government and a rational domestic and foreign policy and send a citizen/politician to DC to represent them? Clearly this poll says.... YES..

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Yeah, and they have Tom Kean, Jr even or ahead in New Jersey. Use any results with caution...

MikeCT said...

It also says this about the general election:

NED 40%
JOE 40%
GOP CAND 13%

Very hard to believe. However, the Rasmussen home page does have this note:
Connecticut Senate Primary
See the latest update on Democratic Primary where Joe Lieberman goes up against Ned Lamont.


But only accessible to premium members. More importantly, they found that Angelina Jolie is viewed favorably by 46% of Americans.
Forty-one percent (41%) of adults are unsure if Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt would marry by the end of the year.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Bluecoat, what's interesting is that he filed separately from Annie this year- we don't know about the previous five. And he won't release Annie's return, while everyone wants to dig into Haddassah.

Annie probably makes more than Ned as a general partner in a private equity firm. A lot more. While Ned doesn't have to release her tax returns, he should disclose her ownership stakes in several companies that her partnership owns. (A lot of them are health-care related.)

How 'bout that Halliburton stock! Ned should disgorge any profits he made from that, or Joe will accuse him of being a war profiteer.

GMR said...

Unfortunately for Republicans, it doesn't look like there's anyway that Schlesinger is going to withdraw from the race.

Also disconcerting is that even if he were to withdraw, I'm not sure that there's a decent candidate to replace him.

bluecoat said...

I just linked the story; I really could care less about his tax returns - the federal reporting is enough for me; and on the halliburton issue - both Ned and Joe own it through money managers with Ned being upfront about it from the start AND Joe owns Flour and Bechtel directly - and as I pointed out before, the original halliburton contracts being used in Iraq were set up under Clinton - but noone ever thought we'd be in a protracted militery conflict that will last longer than WWII.

ctkeith said...

Someone should post the 06 prediction Diary.

The SWEEP IS ON


Anyone who Believes Jodi Rell is safe after a Lamont win knows very little about Politics,History or the People of this state.

Nutmeggers are only people of steady habits until they're not.

Anonymous said...

FYI the gubernatorial race has offically gone negative. I got a mailer today from DeStefano completely misrepresenting Malloy's history with crime and trying to slam him on it.

Not sure what the guy is thinking, to be honest. Last I heard Stamford is one of the safest big cities in the country. New Haven? Yeah not so much. For DeStefano to be hitting Malloy on this issue is a little ridiculous. Not sure why he would start a discussion about Stamford being much safer than New Haven? In any case -- I've seen posts on a few blogs predicting Malloy would be the first to go negative... so much for that.

Anonymous said...

"Lamont is rich, tax return confirms" -- is this really news? Everyone knows he's a millionaire. This is not a story.

MikeCT said...

Political Wire is reporting these findings as well, but there is no hint that they have independent access to the numbers.

HealthcareNOW said...

What about the Margin of Error though? The last time Rasmussen did a poll I believe it was 7%. That's about the most ridiculous number I've heard.

I mean, I hope it's right, but com'on we need like accurate stats.

Anonymous said...

Re: Street address sparks.

Pretty funny. Masullo's address was supposed to be one of MacLean's "talking points" but apparently he doesn't know where he lives himself!


Re: more state cops

Too bad we're spending more on Troopers; ours are no where near the calibre of those in Mass.
Aside from setting up speed traps (usually where it's safe to gun it such as a little like north of Vernon on I-84) I don't know what they do.
Instead of "serve & protect" they seem intent to harrass and annoy.

Chris MC said...

As I argue in the New York Times Endorses Malloy thread, the fact that DeStefano for Connecticut is going negative less than a month from primary day means one of two things: they are desperate about the steady drop in their money and failure to gain real traction, even while they were wildly outspending Malloy; or they are unconcerned with alienating Malloy supporters and donors because they have already written off the General (note that one frequently self-promoted JD supporter and contributor to the comments on blog has said many times that JD hasn't and won't figure out how to bring Rell's numbers down).

DeStefano's campaign is sadly turning out to be a divisive and even destructive force in the party. At this point, Malloy's camp may be forced to go negative on DeStefano, but the record must clearly show that JD and JDforCT are forcing the issue. So far, Malloy and his campaign continue, irrespective of the Q-Poll, to put on a class act, and keep their eye on the ball.

Another major reason we should be pulling for Malloy to lead the party come August 8.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

ct keith-

A Lamont win sucks all of the oxygen out of the room between August and November. All of the money and media in the state go to Joe vs. Ned.

How does one stage a come-from-behind victory against Rell when voters don't know who you are? How do you climb 20-30 points and cut through the clutter?

It's not really a loss- even if Ned Lamont was still hooking up cable tv for college kids instead of running for Senate, Rell would win anyway,

TrueBlueCT said...

FatGuy--

In an ordinary year, most folks are disgusted with politicians and their antics. This year, thanks to things like Katrina, Iraq, and our embarassment of a President, the disgusts borders on hate.

As we get deeper into the fall, these races will become less and less about ideology, and more and more about "throwing the bums out". (and showing the politicians that they still have a boss, namely we the people.)

Don't discount what Jesse Ventura, and/or Arnold Schwarznegger pulled off. The Lamont phenomenon is happening along the same lines.

And yes, I think Jodi Rell could be brought down as quickly as Lieberman has. She isn't addressing our real problems and is just more of the same old bullshit.

BRubenstein said...

Chris Chris Chris

I submit to you that there is bad blood between the candidates and their staffs...neither of your reasons makes sense due to the 20% lead that JDS enjoys.

As ive said before...DM got no bounce out of the convention and would be beaten by JDS..if labor works hard....and they are


BTW you lied about what i have been saying....neither candidacy has done what they needed to do to bring her numbers down...also...when Lamont wins or Joementum folds before 8/8...the campaigns will be "drowned" just as i told JDS to his face back in November, when i urged him to start the multi-level media early.

BRubenstein said...

Fatguy...some of us told Dm and JDS( i gave him $2500) exactly that last year...and...they didnt listen...i myself told JDS to begin his media much much earlier..and he didnt.

The fact is that the Senate race is a national race and will drown out all the races,including the governor's race...and that benefits Rell of course....add on the incompetance and ignorance of the DM and JDS operatives and staff...and you have the beginnings of a loss...

ctkeith said...

Fatguy,

Is this your first year paying attention to politics?

When you figure out why Bill Clinton is coming to Ct on Monday it will make you feel really stupid for writing the rest of your last post.

A Lamont Win Makes a Democratic Sweep in the House races not only possible but PROBABLE and puts the Governors Mansion in play.

If 06 becomes a referendum on the Iraq War and the Republican Congress NOBODY WITH AN R AFTER THERE NAME IS SAFE!!

Anonymous said...

I'm witrh BRubenstein on this one.

This primary is all Iraq, all the time. It's easy to link Lieberman with the war. He was in favor of fighting Iraq before it was cool, when it was cool, and after it stopped being cool.

Plus, he went Washington and stopped doing CT retail politics. He basically mailed in his last term re: constituent service and the price is being paid now in spades

Much harder to pin Iraq and disinterest in local concerns on the R house members who work their districts hard. And blame Jodi for what's going on in Baghdad? Please....

Chris MC said...

Why does Bruce always think people are talking about him?

But, since he mentioned it.

BRubenstein said...

[snip]

JDS's challenge will be to bring her popularity number's down...for 2 years in the race he hasnt yet thought of a way to do that and i doubt he will in the remaining few months.

10:51 AM, July 20, 2006


This is just the latest instance, LOL.

Brass Anon said...

Over the last year it has become increasingly difficult for many people in Connecticut to maintain the standards of living to which they became accustomed just a few years ago.
Rising gasoline, utility, and food costs in the last year, coupled with consistently higher health costs and greater job uncertainty have made day-to-day living more difficult.
People may think they like Jodi Rell, but life is getting more difficult for each of us.
I haven't heard Rell's message yet, but I can tell you that Malloy's message of hope, promise, and ability to confront difficult problems has made this household a Malloy household.
Let him go toe-to-toe with Jodi and he'll bring her numbers down. And if a Democrat steamroller starts to take hold nationally, Malloy can still pull it off.
DeStefano doesn't have the leadership charisma. He'll be a lost cause.
I'm still a Dem holding out hope.
BTW, I sent in my absentee ballot last Friday and I checked off Ned Lamont. Looks like a lot of others are going to do the same thing.

Rell is going down said...

Bruce,

How early could DeStefano have started his media campaign? I mean, if it really costs $150k a week to be on TV, how could any of the gubernatorial candidates to go up any earlier? It sounds good on paper to do so, and I agree that the attraction of the Senaroial race will suck the air out of the gub., but at this point, isn't that a good thinkg for DeStefano, at least in regards to the primary?

And Chris,

You are unbelievable. I posted on the previous thread, but after seeing you post again, I have to repeat myself? If a 20 point lead doesn't prove to you that the DeStefano campaign has traction, what would? Should he be up 30 points? 50? Why don't you stick to pointing out Malloy's positives, instead of spinning a pro-DeStefano story?

BRubenstein said...

rell is going down..there was a point last year when JDS had DM on the ropes...by using the media then...and having a politcal commitee to get even more support then the kids and losers he used...he could have knocked DM out of it entirely...but chose the "safe" path and allowed DM back in the race...

Chris MC said...

RIGD held forth:
Why don't you stick to pointing out Malloy's positives, instead of spinning a pro-DeStefano story?
I refer you to my post in the other thread. Consider the possibility that there is a real difference between advancing a reasonable argument and spinning, and that I am doing the former.

somebody else said:
There was a point last year when JDS had DM on the ropes...by using the media then...and having a politcal commitee to get even more support then the kids and losers he used...he could have knocked DM out of it entirely...but chose the "safe" path and allowed DM back in the race...

TV commercials would have been an even more foolish expenditure last September when the "blow Malloy out of the water" strategy debuted with Rosa DeLauro's endorsement. The only people paying attention then were the insiders who aren't going to be making decisions based on TV ads, and it simply would have closed the much touted funding gap in the third quarter, perhaps the fourth, instead of the quarter just ended.

Doing more from the same playbook that has been losing the Gubernatorial for fifteen years will at best barely get JD the nomination, and only with the advantage of a clear field for six months followed by unprecedented support of organized Labor. Then we'll get buried in November.

The strategy is a failure. The old way of doing things has been failing for fifteen or twenty years. Better execution won't change the fundamentals. This ain't 1970.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

ctkeith said... "...Anyone who Believes Jodi Rell is safe after a Lamont win ..."

Quite the contrary.

Having fully illustrated to normal people regardless of their affiliation (if any) that the Dems have gone waaaay too far left, the need to vote for Republicans.

I can't think of anything we Republicans could do at any expense that would help us more than a Lamont win.....well nominating the New Haven guy won't break our hearts either.

ctkeith said...

Brass Anon,

It doesn't matter one bit whether it's Dan or John.Both men are far superior intelects than Jodi Rell and are smart enough to jump on board the Lamont Train that will be traveling fast and downhill after making the climb to the top of the mountain on August 8th.

With a full head of steam,a downhill trajectory and a message of Change there's no way Rells "Stay the course" reelection strategy will hold.

90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE will make Rell IrRELLevent.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

ctkeith said... "90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE ..."


Dems on the same page?

That's a pretty funny idea!

When's that going to happen?

Post the Aug. 8th primary the Dems will be forming circular firing squads; and that's an area where they really excell!

We'll get Alan Gold off the our slate (even if we have to toss him into someone's trunk and drive him around for a while) and then we'll back Lieberman.

That way voters can vote for all the candidates they like on one line! This is the first time we've wished the party lever still existed!

BRubenstein said...

Anyone who believes Chris Mc does so at their peril...

For all his spin he still has no adaquate explanation for the 20% difference in the polls of DM and JDS..

I posted HARD NUMBERS based on PAST HISTORY and facts and figures out of historical experience while all Chris has is spin.

If Chris were that confident of DM he would have taken me up on my wager offer...

The die is cast and i think JDS on primary day is the winner at around 60%

ProgCT said...

ACR said:
"We'll get Alan Gold off the our slate (even if we have to toss him into someone's trunk and drive him around for a while) and then we'll back Lieberman."

Wait so you are no longer calling for him to win with 1/3 of the vote in a 3 way race? =)

Chris MC said...

I posted HARD NUMBERS based on PAST HISTORY and facts and figures out of historical experience

Uh, yeah.

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.

Let's not keep doing more from the same playbook that has been losing the Gubernatorial for fifteen or twenty years. Better execution won't change the fundamentals. This ain't 1970.

bluecoat said...

I don't remeber seeing any of these lonks on CLP so here they are:Lamont Strength Rouses Progressives
Clinton To Stump For Lieberman
July 23, 2006 By MARK PAZNIOKAS, Courant Staff Writer


Larson, Dodd, DeLauro give Lieberman helping hand
By Don Michak, Journal Inquirer
07/21/2006


Experts: Clinton visit may give Lieberman momentum

BRubenstein said...

well chris...if your so confident that DM will win put your money where your mouth is and wager me...say $500..i will take JDS...ok?

Of course you wont wager me...once again you are exposed as just all talk and spin with no evidence or facts to back you up and as we all know..no expoerience.

As i said before( the facts support it) labor accounts for 25-30% of the primary votes...they seem to be working very hard for JDS and i bet they split 2/1 for him...

Convince us with facts,figures and/or evidence that your boy DM will win...lets see what you got.

Chris MC said...

Convince us with facts,figures and/or evidence that your boy DM will win...lets see what you got.

You don't know when you're licked, kiddo. Read what I've already posted. LOL.

And, just for the fun of it:
BRubenstein said...
[snip]
JDS's challenge will be to bring [Rell's] popularity number's down...for 2 years in the race he hasnt yet thought of a way to do that and i doubt he will in the remaining few months.
10:51 AM, July 20, 2006


And for two years, despite having every possible advantage, he hasn't been able to put Malloy away. On the contrary, Malloy has been kicking JD's can for a solid year.

Really, what more reason do we need to work hard for Malloy? LMAO.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Ct Keith, can you read this through those thick red, rosy lenses?

This isn't my first year "following politics". In fact, I know enough to know that there are lots of people out there who love Ned Lamont, for legitimate reasons. He stands for what they stand for. Joe no longer (or never did) stand for what they stand for. I can tolerate and understand that. I'm a vote-your-conscience guy, when it's affordable (voted for Jerry Brown in the CT primary in 1992), and I'm a practical voter when I can't. (And I had no delusion that Brown could win the nomination, nor that he should- but I was surprised that he won in Connecticut...)

What I can't tolerate and understand is complete ignorance of the nuances of politics and Connecticut political history. As BRubenstein points out, the fratricide in the Democratic gubernatorial race, combined with the national race, combined with the fact that Dan and JDS, are well, not very good candidates prevents them from unseating Rell.

CT voters, especially since we took the party lever away- but even before, vote for the person. They know that Rell has nothing to do with Washington- if they did, why is a Republican governor in a blue state hanging with the highest gubernatorial approvals in the country? And, short of gambling under an assumed name, what's going to be the rationale for Joe Independent Suburban to vote for an urban mayor who's going to press the wrong way on school funding, taxes, and affordable housing? And JDS- when was the last time he knew anything about running against statewide Republicans?

The only guys who could have unseated Rell were President Dodd and Dick Blumenthal.

You claimed that a sweep would be "probable" with a Lamont victory in the 3 Rep-held CDs. (The fact that CT has 3 Rep-held CDs tells you how bad the CT Dems are...) Probable means 50%. Would you take even money for all three going Dem? Even Alan Gold wouldn't.

There will be a rally to the center in this campaign- and CtKeith, I saw this happen myself when I worked for Lynn Yeakel in 1992 against Arlen Specter. Lots of crazy-eyed idealists in that campaign, looking at a Clinton victory sweeping them over Arlen. She was even ahead. Last time I checked, Arlen was still snarlin' behind the chairman's seat. (Funny, the kids didn't think that Perot turnout would have an impact on the PA Senate race- but Paul Begala, fresh off knocking off Dick Thornburgh the year before, told us plain and simple to watch out.)

So, CtKeith, people split their tickets in CT. Especially given that 50% of the voters are unaffils. I admire your bullish enthusiasm, but you would benefit from playing pool with some of us bald-headed, battled scarred guys who understand how it goes down.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

TruBlue:

"Don't discount what Jesse Ventura, and/or Arnold Schwarznegger pulled off. The Lamont phenomenon is happening along the same lines."

Am I missing something? Is Ned Lamont an action hero or a pro-wrestler? Jesse and Arnold brought in people to the center- mostly kids who never voted- and had them vote not for a liberal platform, either. I see Ned more as a Duffy. Much more respectable than Bruce Morrison, but not a "phenomenon".

You also said:

"And yes, I think Jodi Rell could be brought down as quickly as Lieberman has. She isn't addressing our real problems and is just more of the same old [BS]."

Anything is possible in theory, so that's not really a bold statement. (And last time I checked, Lieberman has not been brought down yet. Technically, people vote on that sort of thing.) As for Rell, well, the Republicans don't eat their own. They are too busy laughing while Democrats do that to each other.

Frankly, and I don't know the guy, nor do I agree with a lot of what he says, but BRubenstein has it down on this one. The only path to the corner office in the statehouse for the Dems was through Dodd or Blumenthal. My guy in the GOP says that they love the JDS-DM intramural fight- but that they firmly believe the turnout model- and the media flow- will help Simmons, Shays and Johnson.

Hey- has anybody thought of bringing back Toby Moffett?