Connecticut Politics and Elections: Coverage, Analysis, Maps and Commentary
Saturday, July 22, 2006
Rasmussen Rumors: Lamont Ahead in Primary, Even in General
According to this post, a new Rasmussen poll may show Lamont up by 10% in the primary, and actually even with Lieberman for the general election. The poll is for premium members only.
I'll confirm / update as the day goes on.
15 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Yeah, and they have Tom Kean, Jr even or ahead in New Jersey. Use any results with caution...
Bluecoat, what's interesting is that he filed separately from Annie this year- we don't know about the previous five. And he won't release Annie's return, while everyone wants to dig into Haddassah.
Annie probably makes more than Ned as a general partner in a private equity firm. A lot more. While Ned doesn't have to release her tax returns, he should disclose her ownership stakes in several companies that her partnership owns. (A lot of them are health-care related.)
How 'bout that Halliburton stock! Ned should disgorge any profits he made from that, or Joe will accuse him of being a war profiteer.
FYI the gubernatorial race has offically gone negative. I got a mailer today from DeStefano completely misrepresenting Malloy's history with crime and trying to slam him on it.
Not sure what the guy is thinking, to be honest. Last I heard Stamford is one of the safest big cities in the country. New Haven? Yeah not so much. For DeStefano to be hitting Malloy on this issue is a little ridiculous. Not sure why he would start a discussion about Stamford being much safer than New Haven? In any case -- I've seen posts on a few blogs predicting Malloy would be the first to go negative... so much for that.
Pretty funny. Masullo's address was supposed to be one of MacLean's "talking points" but apparently he doesn't know where he lives himself!
Re: more state cops
Too bad we're spending more on Troopers; ours are no where near the calibre of those in Mass. Aside from setting up speed traps (usually where it's safe to gun it such as a little like north of Vernon on I-84) I don't know what they do. Instead of "serve & protect" they seem intent to harrass and annoy.
A Lamont win sucks all of the oxygen out of the room between August and November. All of the money and media in the state go to Joe vs. Ned.
How does one stage a come-from-behind victory against Rell when voters don't know who you are? How do you climb 20-30 points and cut through the clutter?
It's not really a loss- even if Ned Lamont was still hooking up cable tv for college kids instead of running for Senate, Rell would win anyway,
This primary is all Iraq, all the time. It's easy to link Lieberman with the war. He was in favor of fighting Iraq before it was cool, when it was cool, and after it stopped being cool.
Plus, he went Washington and stopped doing CT retail politics. He basically mailed in his last term re: constituent service and the price is being paid now in spades
Much harder to pin Iraq and disinterest in local concerns on the R house members who work their districts hard. And blame Jodi for what's going on in Baghdad? Please....
ctkeith said... "...Anyone who Believes Jodi Rell is safe after a Lamont win ..."
Quite the contrary.
Having fully illustrated to normal people regardless of their affiliation (if any) that the Dems have gone waaaay too far left, the need to vote for Republicans.
I can't think of anything we Republicans could do at any expense that would help us more than a Lamont win.....well nominating the New Haven guy won't break our hearts either.
It doesn't matter one bit whether it's Dan or John.Both men are far superior intelects than Jodi Rell and are smart enough to jump on board the Lamont Train that will be traveling fast and downhill after making the climb to the top of the mountain on August 8th.
With a full head of steam,a downhill trajectory and a message of Change there's no way Rells "Stay the course" reelection strategy will hold.
90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE will make Rell IrRELLevent.
ctkeith said... "90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE ..."
Dems on the same page?
That's a pretty funny idea!
When's that going to happen?
Post the Aug. 8th primary the Dems will be forming circular firing squads; and that's an area where they really excell!
We'll get Alan Gold off the our slate (even if we have to toss him into someone's trunk and drive him around for a while) and then we'll back Lieberman.
That way voters can vote for all the candidates they like on one line! This is the first time we've wished the party lever still existed!
Ct Keith, can you read this through those thick red, rosy lenses?
This isn't my first year "following politics". In fact, I know enough to know that there are lots of people out there who love Ned Lamont, for legitimate reasons. He stands for what they stand for. Joe no longer (or never did) stand for what they stand for. I can tolerate and understand that. I'm a vote-your-conscience guy, when it's affordable (voted for Jerry Brown in the CT primary in 1992), and I'm a practical voter when I can't. (And I had no delusion that Brown could win the nomination, nor that he should- but I was surprised that he won in Connecticut...)
What I can't tolerate and understand is complete ignorance of the nuances of politics and Connecticut political history. As BRubenstein points out, the fratricide in the Democratic gubernatorial race, combined with the national race, combined with the fact that Dan and JDS, are well, not very good candidates prevents them from unseating Rell.
CT voters, especially since we took the party lever away- but even before, vote for the person. They know that Rell has nothing to do with Washington- if they did, why is a Republican governor in a blue state hanging with the highest gubernatorial approvals in the country? And, short of gambling under an assumed name, what's going to be the rationale for Joe Independent Suburban to vote for an urban mayor who's going to press the wrong way on school funding, taxes, and affordable housing? And JDS- when was the last time he knew anything about running against statewide Republicans?
The only guys who could have unseated Rell were President Dodd and Dick Blumenthal.
You claimed that a sweep would be "probable" with a Lamont victory in the 3 Rep-held CDs. (The fact that CT has 3 Rep-held CDs tells you how bad the CT Dems are...) Probable means 50%. Would you take even money for all three going Dem? Even Alan Gold wouldn't.
There will be a rally to the center in this campaign- and CtKeith, I saw this happen myself when I worked for Lynn Yeakel in 1992 against Arlen Specter. Lots of crazy-eyed idealists in that campaign, looking at a Clinton victory sweeping them over Arlen. She was even ahead. Last time I checked, Arlen was still snarlin' behind the chairman's seat. (Funny, the kids didn't think that Perot turnout would have an impact on the PA Senate race- but Paul Begala, fresh off knocking off Dick Thornburgh the year before, told us plain and simple to watch out.)
So, CtKeith, people split their tickets in CT. Especially given that 50% of the voters are unaffils. I admire your bullish enthusiasm, but you would benefit from playing pool with some of us bald-headed, battled scarred guys who understand how it goes down.
"Don't discount what Jesse Ventura, and/or Arnold Schwarznegger pulled off. The Lamont phenomenon is happening along the same lines."
Am I missing something? Is Ned Lamont an action hero or a pro-wrestler? Jesse and Arnold brought in people to the center- mostly kids who never voted- and had them vote not for a liberal platform, either. I see Ned more as a Duffy. Much more respectable than Bruce Morrison, but not a "phenomenon".
You also said:
"And yes, I think Jodi Rell could be brought down as quickly as Lieberman has. She isn't addressing our real problems and is just more of the same old [BS]."
Anything is possible in theory, so that's not really a bold statement. (And last time I checked, Lieberman has not been brought down yet. Technically, people vote on that sort of thing.) As for Rell, well, the Republicans don't eat their own. They are too busy laughing while Democrats do that to each other.
Frankly, and I don't know the guy, nor do I agree with a lot of what he says, but BRubenstein has it down on this one. The only path to the corner office in the statehouse for the Dems was through Dodd or Blumenthal. My guy in the GOP says that they love the JDS-DM intramural fight- but that they firmly believe the turnout model- and the media flow- will help Simmons, Shays and Johnson.
Hey- has anybody thought of bringing back Toby Moffett?
15 comments:
Yeah, and they have Tom Kean, Jr even or ahead in New Jersey. Use any results with caution...
Bluecoat, what's interesting is that he filed separately from Annie this year- we don't know about the previous five. And he won't release Annie's return, while everyone wants to dig into Haddassah.
Annie probably makes more than Ned as a general partner in a private equity firm. A lot more. While Ned doesn't have to release her tax returns, he should disclose her ownership stakes in several companies that her partnership owns. (A lot of them are health-care related.)
How 'bout that Halliburton stock! Ned should disgorge any profits he made from that, or Joe will accuse him of being a war profiteer.
Unfortunately for Republicans, it doesn't look like there's anyway that Schlesinger is going to withdraw from the race.
Also disconcerting is that even if he were to withdraw, I'm not sure that there's a decent candidate to replace him.
Someone should post the 06 prediction Diary.
The SWEEP IS ON
Anyone who Believes Jodi Rell is safe after a Lamont win knows very little about Politics,History or the People of this state.
Nutmeggers are only people of steady habits until they're not.
FYI the gubernatorial race has offically gone negative. I got a mailer today from DeStefano completely misrepresenting Malloy's history with crime and trying to slam him on it.
Not sure what the guy is thinking, to be honest. Last I heard Stamford is one of the safest big cities in the country. New Haven? Yeah not so much. For DeStefano to be hitting Malloy on this issue is a little ridiculous. Not sure why he would start a discussion about Stamford being much safer than New Haven? In any case -- I've seen posts on a few blogs predicting Malloy would be the first to go negative... so much for that.
"Lamont is rich, tax return confirms" -- is this really news? Everyone knows he's a millionaire. This is not a story.
Re: Street address sparks.
Pretty funny. Masullo's address was supposed to be one of MacLean's "talking points" but apparently he doesn't know where he lives himself!
Re: more state cops
Too bad we're spending more on Troopers; ours are no where near the calibre of those in Mass.
Aside from setting up speed traps (usually where it's safe to gun it such as a little like north of Vernon on I-84) I don't know what they do.
Instead of "serve & protect" they seem intent to harrass and annoy.
ct keith-
A Lamont win sucks all of the oxygen out of the room between August and November. All of the money and media in the state go to Joe vs. Ned.
How does one stage a come-from-behind victory against Rell when voters don't know who you are? How do you climb 20-30 points and cut through the clutter?
It's not really a loss- even if Ned Lamont was still hooking up cable tv for college kids instead of running for Senate, Rell would win anyway,
Fatguy,
Is this your first year paying attention to politics?
When you figure out why Bill Clinton is coming to Ct on Monday it will make you feel really stupid for writing the rest of your last post.
A Lamont Win Makes a Democratic Sweep in the House races not only possible but PROBABLE and puts the Governors Mansion in play.
If 06 becomes a referendum on the Iraq War and the Republican Congress NOBODY WITH AN R AFTER THERE NAME IS SAFE!!
I'm witrh BRubenstein on this one.
This primary is all Iraq, all the time. It's easy to link Lieberman with the war. He was in favor of fighting Iraq before it was cool, when it was cool, and after it stopped being cool.
Plus, he went Washington and stopped doing CT retail politics. He basically mailed in his last term re: constituent service and the price is being paid now in spades
Much harder to pin Iraq and disinterest in local concerns on the R house members who work their districts hard. And blame Jodi for what's going on in Baghdad? Please....
ctkeith said... "...Anyone who Believes Jodi Rell is safe after a Lamont win ..."
Quite the contrary.
Having fully illustrated to normal people regardless of their affiliation (if any) that the Dems have gone waaaay too far left, the need to vote for Republicans.
I can't think of anything we Republicans could do at any expense that would help us more than a Lamont win.....well nominating the New Haven guy won't break our hearts either.
Brass Anon,
It doesn't matter one bit whether it's Dan or John.Both men are far superior intelects than Jodi Rell and are smart enough to jump on board the Lamont Train that will be traveling fast and downhill after making the climb to the top of the mountain on August 8th.
With a full head of steam,a downhill trajectory and a message of Change there's no way Rells "Stay the course" reelection strategy will hold.
90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE will make Rell IrRELLevent.
ctkeith said... "90 days with the Democratic party ALL ON THE SAME PAGE ..."
Dems on the same page?
That's a pretty funny idea!
When's that going to happen?
Post the Aug. 8th primary the Dems will be forming circular firing squads; and that's an area where they really excell!
We'll get Alan Gold off the our slate (even if we have to toss him into someone's trunk and drive him around for a while) and then we'll back Lieberman.
That way voters can vote for all the candidates they like on one line! This is the first time we've wished the party lever still existed!
Ct Keith, can you read this through those thick red, rosy lenses?
This isn't my first year "following politics". In fact, I know enough to know that there are lots of people out there who love Ned Lamont, for legitimate reasons. He stands for what they stand for. Joe no longer (or never did) stand for what they stand for. I can tolerate and understand that. I'm a vote-your-conscience guy, when it's affordable (voted for Jerry Brown in the CT primary in 1992), and I'm a practical voter when I can't. (And I had no delusion that Brown could win the nomination, nor that he should- but I was surprised that he won in Connecticut...)
What I can't tolerate and understand is complete ignorance of the nuances of politics and Connecticut political history. As BRubenstein points out, the fratricide in the Democratic gubernatorial race, combined with the national race, combined with the fact that Dan and JDS, are well, not very good candidates prevents them from unseating Rell.
CT voters, especially since we took the party lever away- but even before, vote for the person. They know that Rell has nothing to do with Washington- if they did, why is a Republican governor in a blue state hanging with the highest gubernatorial approvals in the country? And, short of gambling under an assumed name, what's going to be the rationale for Joe Independent Suburban to vote for an urban mayor who's going to press the wrong way on school funding, taxes, and affordable housing? And JDS- when was the last time he knew anything about running against statewide Republicans?
The only guys who could have unseated Rell were President Dodd and Dick Blumenthal.
You claimed that a sweep would be "probable" with a Lamont victory in the 3 Rep-held CDs. (The fact that CT has 3 Rep-held CDs tells you how bad the CT Dems are...) Probable means 50%. Would you take even money for all three going Dem? Even Alan Gold wouldn't.
There will be a rally to the center in this campaign- and CtKeith, I saw this happen myself when I worked for Lynn Yeakel in 1992 against Arlen Specter. Lots of crazy-eyed idealists in that campaign, looking at a Clinton victory sweeping them over Arlen. She was even ahead. Last time I checked, Arlen was still snarlin' behind the chairman's seat. (Funny, the kids didn't think that Perot turnout would have an impact on the PA Senate race- but Paul Begala, fresh off knocking off Dick Thornburgh the year before, told us plain and simple to watch out.)
So, CtKeith, people split their tickets in CT. Especially given that 50% of the voters are unaffils. I admire your bullish enthusiasm, but you would benefit from playing pool with some of us bald-headed, battled scarred guys who understand how it goes down.
TruBlue:
"Don't discount what Jesse Ventura, and/or Arnold Schwarznegger pulled off. The Lamont phenomenon is happening along the same lines."
Am I missing something? Is Ned Lamont an action hero or a pro-wrestler? Jesse and Arnold brought in people to the center- mostly kids who never voted- and had them vote not for a liberal platform, either. I see Ned more as a Duffy. Much more respectable than Bruce Morrison, but not a "phenomenon".
You also said:
"And yes, I think Jodi Rell could be brought down as quickly as Lieberman has. She isn't addressing our real problems and is just more of the same old [BS]."
Anything is possible in theory, so that's not really a bold statement. (And last time I checked, Lieberman has not been brought down yet. Technically, people vote on that sort of thing.) As for Rell, well, the Republicans don't eat their own. They are too busy laughing while Democrats do that to each other.
Frankly, and I don't know the guy, nor do I agree with a lot of what he says, but BRubenstein has it down on this one. The only path to the corner office in the statehouse for the Dems was through Dodd or Blumenthal. My guy in the GOP says that they love the JDS-DM intramural fight- but that they firmly believe the turnout model- and the media flow- will help Simmons, Shays and Johnson.
Hey- has anybody thought of bringing back Toby Moffett?
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