Thursday, July 20, 2006

DeStefano Still Ahead of Malloy

A quick note about the Democratic gubernatorial primary:
16. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano and Dan Malloy, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q16) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Malloy?This table includes Leaners.

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (June 8th)

DeStefano 52% (46%)
Malloy 32% (35%)
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2% (1%)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) -
DK/NA 14% (18%)

This is a jump from the last poll, taken in June. It could suggest that DeStefano's television commercials are having an effect, which is what the DeStefano campaign believes:
“It’s clear John’s message of fighting for working families is resonating with voters,” said Derek Slap – Communications Director. (DeStefano)

I suspect that these numbers are still based mostly on name recognition rather than actual preference. Here's why:
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (Total; JD voters; DM voters)

Made up 48% ; 47% ; 48%
Might change 51% ; 51% ; 50%


Compare this to Lamont/Lieberman voters:
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (Total ; JL voters ; NL voters)

Made up 79% ; 77% ; 80%
Might change 19% ; 21% ; 18


So this is by no means definitive. The Malloy campaign believes that a television blitz will help get their candidate's name out there:
We believe that a significant percentage of true primary voters are just starting to focus on this primary race, which is why we are just now ramping up a very intense and highly focused final phase of our paid communications plan (TV, mail, etc.). Conversely, our opponent chose to go very heavy on TV very early. (Malloy)


Could be. Or it could also be that DeStefano's greater name recognition and labor support will carry him to the nomination in August.


Source

Quinnipiac Poll 20 July, 2006.

"DeStefano widens lead in latest Q-Poll." DeStefano for Connecticut. Press Release. 20 July, 2006.

"Malloy Campaign Responds to Q-Poll." Malloy for Governor. Press Release. 20 July, 2006.

24 comments:

bluecoat said...

I don't like JDS's automatic annul increases in the minimum wage nor do I buy into his sending his bill to WalMart (as bad a neighbor as they are) for govt. funded healthcare because as Maryland learned Judge Gives Wal-Mart Reprieve on Benefits but at least JDS is being up front with his ideas and not making it up as he goes along like Malloy does:DeStefano questions Malloy's job claims

BRubenstein said...

This is no surprise...I told the blog months ago...and posted the labor numbers....of what the labor effect to the primary would be...DM is cooked if labor is working hard..and they are.

JDS's challenge will be to bring her popularity number's down...for 2 years in the race he hasnt yet thought of a way to do that and i doubt he will in the remaining few months.

GMR said...

It seems like JDS has made up quite a bit as he goes along. Look at his transportation policy, which consists primarily of a wish list without any notion about how it's all going to be paid for.

bluecoat said...

Once malloy is out of the way with his demagogary, I expect JDS can shine a spotlight on the fiscal mess CT is in but I don't know how big spending Jim Ammann will take it. The Yankee Institute named Jodi the state levelenemy of the taxpayer but gave the legislature honarable mention too.

bluecoat said...

GMR: most of what you call a wish list on transportation by JDS has already been funded by Rell and the GA - the only thing new of any substance was the wideneing of I-95 from Branford to RI and that's in the works anyway.

bluecoat said...

and without a historical perspective of the approval ratings of past governoars and challengers in the runup to election day, I don't know what to make of the 3's except that the incumbent in CT unless really a pedophile or a crook usually has some kind of approval from the pollees

Anonymous said...

The poll numbers, in my humble opinion, probably don't reflect a labor effect. I think they are directly related to the name recognition The Destefano camp has been building- particularly through TV. John has run TV everywhere and it has done wonders for his name recognition.

GOTV- now that will depend on labor showing up.

Stick a fork in Malloy...

Anonymous said...

I would think down 20 points with less then 3 weeks to go, Malloy doesn't have much of a chance to win this. Although he was retarded to the 4th grade, so I guess he's good at overcoming things. Let's just hope Malloy doesn't go negative. It would be a shame for him to bring the level of discourse down(like the campaign finance bit in the debate) and hurt the Dems chances in the general against Rell. I'll be watching my mailbox on that one...

Anonymous said...

Stick a fork in Roy O....he's dun!

His sitting U.S. Senator client is about to be thrown out by his own party.

His client for Governor is 20 points behind with two weeks left.

So much for Roy O being untouchable in primary races.

Bad day...bad poll...for Roy O.

Anonymous said...

How EXACTLY was the campaign finance reform thing "bringing the level of discourse down?". It was a totally valid point, and even if you don't think it was, it definitely wasn't going to any level DeStefano wasn't already at. I've seen DeStefano quote Malloy on things he has done and said: were you so steadfastly opposed to that as well?

bluecoat said...

For the most part the term mentally retarded should have disappeared from the lexicon by now because it is meaningless cliniccally. even the Joseph P. Keneddy Foundation linked here and Special Olympics uses the term intellectual disabilities to describe the organization's beneficiaries. Anon 12:56 calling malloy mentaly retarded until fourth grade not only twists Malloy's words but shows total ignorance and a little bigotry too. We do have a problem here in progressive CT with our Department of Mental Retardation still in existence ( the forward thinking legislature gave the DMR two years to study the impact of changing the name to the Dept. of Intellectual Disabilities) and handling clients with developmental disabilites as Autism et al. so maybe anon is excusable in CT political parlance but not in mine.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Y'know, I have disagreed all day long with everything bluecoat has said ... until now:

Cut the retarded crap.

BRubenstein said...

Anon 12:05..you are partially wrong..the labor folks have been telephone banking..doing house parties..sending out mailers etc to their membership ( followed by phone calls) as well as the media stuff JDS is doing...all of which gets him this big big lead over DM...

I still maintain that at the primary JDS will get around 60% and DM 40%

Rell is going down said...

I think it was Dan Malloy himself that used the term "retarded" in his closing the other night.

Wrath of Conn said...

Bluecoat, in response to the article you posted atop this thread, I just found this on the Malloy website:

Malloy Campaign to DeStefano Campaign: Be Careful What You Ask For

In response to a question from his primary election challenger about jobs numbers used in a mailing, Democratic Party endorsed candidate for Governor Dan Malloy today issued a clarification on the jobs that he created under his leadership as Mayor of Stamford, versus the number of jobs lost by Mayor DeStefano in New Haven.

"After questioning some recent statistics, it's clear that Dan Malloy's record is even stronger than advertised," said Chris Cooney, Malloy's campaign manager. "And Mayor DeStefano's is even weaker!"

BRubenstein said...

Anon 1:07

Roy o and his co-workers have a lousy batting average to begin with( 0 for 4)...I believe they will lose with DM,Joementum and probably Farrell also...

What did you mean by " un-touchable in primary races..in curry v. larson if a few of us didnt get curry all those town chairs and delegates ( i got curry 25 town chairs myself..and about 250 delegates) he was cooked..roy had nothing to do with curry forcing George Jepson from the race.

BRubenstein said...

Anon 1:07

Roy o and his co-workers have a lousy batting average to begin with( 0 for 4)...I believe they will lose with DM,Joementum and probably Farrell also...

What did you mean by " un-touchable in primary races..in curry v. larson if a few of us didnt get curry all those town chairs and delegates ( i got curry 25 town chairs myself..and about 250 delegates) he was cooked..roy had nothing to do with curry forcing George Jepson from the race.

bluecoat said...

Malloy said the teachers thought he was "retarded" and shame on Malloy just a little bit for continuing to use the term, too without putting the issue in the right context.

Anonymous said...

Re: "cutting the retarded crap"

No one's calling Malloy a retard, except Malloy himself. And it seems very relevant to me to discuss the political ramifications of announcing to the public that he was considered a "retard" up through 4th grade. I for one think that politically, it was a pretty bad idea (regardless of our progressive nature as a state).

bluecoat said...

the word "retard" was never used by Malloy; I guess my post in response to anon 3:48 din't go through;.

Anonymous said...

GC,
Why would you leave up (or permit) these comments about Roy; your own "civility" postings have offered that campaign/political staff are not game.

Ease up kiddo

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:10

I said the Campaign Finance talk by Malloy brought the level of political discourse down for a few reasons.

For one, it's obvious DeStefano is a supporter of campaign finance, he's said it many times. Two, Malloy lied when he said this race would of been financed publically if DeStefano had so declared, it never would of been and because of this it was a moot point. Third, Malloy forget to mention that at the time he made that pledge he was in the process of getting indicted and wasn't raising any money, quite convenient I may add.

It's likely that Malloy will go negative at this point with the mailings, he doesn't really have any other way to catch up. I've already seen his job mailing claiming he created 5000 jobs which turned out to be a lie, according to the newspapers of CT and official job data. Let's hope that's the last piece of mail like that I get.

John Fahan said...

Dems have to realize DeStefano will get crushed in a debate. All Rell has to say to him in a debate he has been mayor since 1994 and crime in New Haven is out of control and what has he done? Nothing! Come on Dems you
know about Malloy"s success in Stamford so get on board with him. You know we will easily go down in flames with DeStefano. Get real! Get real! Malloy is your man. He is tough and will take on Rell. DeStefano was very weak in that debate. Malloy speks consisely which
reflects clear thinking.

John Fahan

Rell is going down said...

John,

Back your comments up with facts buddy. Crime in New Haven is down significantly since 1994. 34 murders in '04, 15 last year. That's less than half. I really don't understand why people come on here and attempt to post completely bogus statements, knowing that the facts are so easily attainable. I think that is my biggest grudge against the Malloy supporters. You always seem to talk about what DeStefano hasn't done right, as opposed to what Malloy has done right. Malloy has a strong record. Anyone can see that. But it doesn't get any better by posting false accusations about New Haven.