Monday, July 31, 2006

One Week to Go

Greetings to readers coming in from around the country. There's a lot of great coverage of the primaries and other races on the site from the weekend. Please check out all of the following links!

U.S. Senate
Gubernatorial Primary
And once again, it's time for predictions. Who's going to win on August 8th? By how much? What will the turnout be like?


CTRevolution said...

I would call DeStefano over Malloy by 6 points. Malloy has been hammering with push polling and negative mailings(I've got two with verifiable lies in the last week) trying to bring DeStefano down, but people are starting to see through that. They know that DeStefano is the only candidate who will really will fight for the working people and that his health care plan actually works. Most people I talk to see DeStefano as really genuine and remark that Malloy seems very used car salesman like which I think is accurate. I also think Labor is going to work hard to get out the vote and that a higher turnout then expected (30+%) will help DeStefano.

I'd call Lamont over Lieberman by 12 points, I think the momentum is clearly swung to Lamont. I don't see how Lieberman even with Clinton by his side will regain so much lost ground. August 8th will be great day for progressivism in CT. Then it's off to the 3-way race, and bringing Rell down.

Anonymous said...

That Malloy/DeStefano assesment is nonsense, as it was well documented that DeStefano went negative with mailings first.

CTRevolution said...

Woah, woah there mr. anon 9:07. Malloy's campaign is the one that has been push polling( a disgrace his campaign has bestowed upon the people of CT), been making up numbers(5000 new jobs, no let's make it 10,000, hey I wouldn't doubt if he made 100,000 new jobs) and sending negative mailings about DeStefano. I don't blame them, they're desperate and the only way they can tarnish DeStefano is by spreading lies, because Malloy doesn't have the character or working ideas that the people of CT want. On a side note, the courant's endorsement(bush lovers anonymous) of Malloy also made me want to vote for DeStefano more. Call me anti-establishment and progressive, but I'd say DeStefano will win this.

ctkeith said...

The "Kiss Float" spent a good portion of Yesterday in the Westville section of New Haven (Thats where Joe Lives).

We canvased the entire neighborhood for Lawn signs and Lamont won with 32 compared to Liebermans 20.

We knocked on doors and spoke with some of those people with Lamont signs and those just outside enjoying the day. To a person they all thought Lamont was going to win but more importantly they had all voted for Lieberman Before but are Voting for Lamont August 8th.

Every one of them felt Joe had lost touch and used phraes like "Joe thinks he has become Royalty and is Entitled to the Senate seat"

These are his neighbors of over 23 yrs.They Know SEn. Lieberman better than most and they're "Disgusted with Him"

PS- the only 2 Admitted Republicans we ran into in Westville siad they plan on voting for Lieberman if he is on the Ballot in November.Anyone suprised?

Sick of the Spin said...

Why are Democrats in CT spending all their time and money on beating a Democrat with another Democrat when they could have a united front against a Republican Governor? Doesn't seem to make sense, a Democrat is going to win the Senate seat (regardless of the primary winner), yet Democrats in CT want to spend all their effort on knocking one Dem out for another and seem content to let the Republican Governor maintain her post...Doesn't make sense to me.

Gio said...

Joe by 1-2 points with 18% turnout.

Anonymous said...

My bet is Lamont over Lieberman by 15 percent. Lamont has been gaining ground on Lieberman all yr and I think the momentum is going to keep going in that direction. Now, the 3 way race, that should be interesting. Will have to see how much of a boost that a primary win would give Lamont.

In the governor's race, I'd say probably DeStefano by about 7 points. It might be closer, Malloy's camp has been sending a lot of mail, but I agree that Labor will come out in full force on this one.

Anonymous said...

Just a thought...

Anon 10:49 states, "My bet is Lamont over Lieberman by 15 percent." and in the next paragraph says, "It might be closer, Malloy's camp has been sending a lot of mail, but I agree that Labor will come out in full force on this one."

Didn't Joe get the endorsement of the unions as well? Are the union guys just gonna vote for DeStefano and leave the booth? I think labor's inpact on the Senate race has been underestimated by some...not saying it's gonna change the winner but should certainly make it close...

Anonymous said...

Labor is much more unified over DeStefano than it is with Lieberman. Check the IAM HQ in East Hartford with Lamont signs. I predict Lamont with 53% of the vote and Malloy with 51% of the vote. The NYT and Hartford Courant endorsements and more mail & TV will influence the Lieberman and Lamont voters who are soft on DeStefano or who were undecided.

Anonymous said...

Lieberman 52%
Lamont 48%

DeStefano 54%
Malloy 46%

Suprisingly Light Turnout considering the competitive nature of the races.

BRubenstein said...

Here is my predictions...i have consulted the past record of races and checked with the SOTS ,AFl,registers of voters and others...

Preview...There is no historical precedent for a primary in August like this in recent time.The last Governor primary for Dems was 1994 ( curry v. larson) in which there was a 26% turnout..most of the labor movement was for curry when larson didnt support labor's position of some legislation.Labor broke 2/1 for curry in that race and he won fairly easilly.

Unlike 1994 we have a 2 way primary in which the Senate race has taken on national significance.
So unlike 1994 with 26% id say the primary next week will be around 30-35%..

The Governor's race...

There are around 700,000 registered dems...assuming a 30% turnout its likely that 210,000 dems will vote..making a winner have 105,001 votes to win.

The latest recorded figure for labor is 250,000 registered members..not including 100,000 seperately organized union retirees...meaning there are 350,000 total union votes active and/or retired...of those 50% are republicans and/or independants who can't vote in the primary..leaving...175,000 who could vote...of those 175,000 democratic union members assume again 30% turnout so you woujld have roughly 53,000 ( rounded off) votes...or...25% of the total vote of 8/8/06...not counting perhaps another 20% of spouses of democratic union members who will vote for a gov candidate....JDS has about 95% of the union votes...and they are working hard...assuming a historical split once again of 2/1 JDS will get roughly 40,000 union votes and DM 20,000...Of the remaining 150,000 dem's who voted DM would need about 56% to win..VERY UNLIKELY...

i would say JDS will win 55-60% and DM gets 45-40%..

The Senate Race..


1. union rank and file dems tend to be liberal's and will tend to back Lamont in defience of there leadership.

2. All polling suggests that in the Dem Party 80% think the war is wrong..and 40% say its the biggest issue of their committment to vote..

3. I checked with 7 democratic reg of voters who all stated that the AB's are heavier then in past years.

4 All reg of voters stated the " u to d's" are heavier then in past years...( lamont has a u to do program on their webpage and Joe has none.

5 the Q Poll has Lamont over Joe 51% to 47 ; Rasmussen even better for Lamont

Assuming the same numbers above its clear to me that the intangibles go with Lamont in this race...he has a home grown field staff....the party elite is at best luke warm to this race since Joe took out 3rd party petitions and he has had to import field talent...Lamont has organized the small and rural towns first and secondly the "high performing towns" His voter file is up to date..His internal intensity polling is higher then Joe's...meaning his folks will be voting in a higher % then Joes..

I estimate a little less but similiar figure in Lamont/Lieberman...


My estimate

Anonymous said...

Hey GC, how about six questions for George Gallo?
1) What legislative races do you see the most promise in this year?
2) How come you were so quick to request Schlesinger's ouster from the race for Senate?
3) How come you were so quick to re-embrace Schlesinger in his race for Senate?
4) It has been reported on this blog that Alan Schlesinger addressed the lastest meeting of the Republican State Central Committee. What was the general tone of response to his appearance?
5) What are your thoughts on Diana Urban?As a Republican, do you support her?
6) Do you expect Alan Schlesinger to be on the Republican line come Election Day?

Anonymous said...

Brucey: I take issue with the first of your assumptions, namely that union D's are more liberal. I think this is pretty far from the truth. Many union D's are D's because 1) they have to be, 2) the Democratic party has historically backed the working man and it is in-bred in union families, 3) union D's are blue-collar, working class men (for the most part) and frankly can't stand many of the social positions that make liberals liberal. I haven't found too many construction workers who favor gay marriage, or are deathly concerned about the survival of the endangered sprattle-legged clapphanger...have you? Union D's want to know 1) who's going to raise the minimum wage, 2) who's going to really be able to improve health-care access for their families and 3)who has been a friend to unions in the past and will not hinder their ability to bargain effectively for their members. In this case, Lieberman is the clear choice.

BRubenstein said...

Anon 12:24...the polls indicate that registered democratic working people really hate this war and the historical evidence is that they will break ranks with their union leaders over the war and a majority will support Lamont...remember there are some unions for Lamont too...

Lastly...ive talked to some union leaders who had their arms twisted for Lieberman by their international leaders in Washington...and while they voted for Joementum in the AFL convention..they arent doing a thing for him on the gound for the primary...hence..they havent sent their rank and file any letters to vote for Joe and of course didnt follow it up with phone calls either..leaving the rank and file free to do what they want.

Definetly Not George Gallo said...

Anon 12:11

Answers to your questions:

1. All of them
2. No comment
3. No comment
4. No comment
5. We support he re-election bid to the state house.
6. Yes

Do you honestly think the Chairman of the Republican party would answer those questions for you? I am sure he reads this blog and that is it should be...Hi George!

Anonymous said...

Six questions for Nancy DiNardo:

1) How was is that you became chairman?
2) Don't state party by-laws prevent you from taking sides in a primary?
3) If not, and since you've endorsed Lieberman I guess they don't, who do you like: DeStefano or Malloy?
4) Do you realistically expect to hold a supermajority in the state senate?
5) If Ned Lamont wins, you lose the Governor's race, and neither Farrell, Courtney or Murphy win, how do you spin it?
6) Honestly, how did you become chairman?

BRubenstein said...

I know how she became chairperson...

Anonymous said...

US Senate Primary...

Lieberman 51%
Lamont 49%

25% turnout

Gov Primary

Brassett said...

38% turnout

Lamont 58%
Lieberman 42%

Malloy 52%
DeStefano 48%

Chris MC said...

Malloy 52 DeStefano 48

Bruce will come on CTLP and explain how he called it that way all along.

BRubenstein said...

no friendly wager Chris?

Gabe said...

Malloy over JDS by less than a point

Lamont over Lieberman by 5 points

The over/under for the number of lawsuits filed over the results: 1

Bruce: I'll take some CT-GOV-D action... Lunch at Wood n' Tap?

Chris MC said...

Well, Bruce, when you put it that way.

Malloy wins, you cut his campaign a check for $2,500.

DeStefano wins and I'll admit you were right about the outcome.

Chris MC said...

BRubenstein said...
...for 2 years in the race [JDS] hasn't yet thought of a way to [bring Rell's popularity numbers down] and I doubt he will in the remaining few months.
10:51 AM, July 20, 2006

Just can't get enough of that'n Brucie boy. "Hey, I know! Let's vote to lose the General Election".


Gabe said...

Oh and turnout will be 33%...