Thursday, July 20, 2006

Lamont Ahead of Lieberman

Quinnipiac Poll (full poll not yet on QU website):

Among Likely Primary Voters:

Ned Lamont 51%
Joe Lieberman 47%

Absolutely incredible.

Update As for November:

Lieberman (I) 51%
Lamont (D) 27%
Schlesinger (R) 9%

If Lieberman loses the primary, expect that number to go down.

Update 2: The poll has been posted. Thanks MikeCT for spotting it.

Some more numbers:
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?
(Among Democrats)
Approve 47%
Disapprove 44%

(Likely primary voters)
Approve 42%
Disapprove 53%
...
[For Lamont voters] Is your vote more for Lamont or more against Lieberman?
For Lamont 33%
Against Lieberman 63%
...
[For those likely voters who said Lieberman doesn't deserve to be re-elected:] What is the main reason you feel he does not deserve to be reelected?
Position on Iraq 35%
Too conservative/Right wing/Republican 18%
Too Close to Bush 10%


There's more. I'll talk about the governor's race, in which Jodi Rell's numbers are finally moving south and John DeStefano is the clear front-runner for the nomination, in a later post.

Source

Quinnipiac Poll 20 July, 2006.

67 comments:

Anonymous said...

It is absolutely unbelievable. Lieberman goes from being the #2 Democrat in the nation in 2000, to being defeated in a primary (with no personal scandals) six short years later. It is remarkable.

MikeCT said...

Also more from Political Wire:

* Lieberman defeats Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger 68% to 15%
* Lamont beats Schlesinger 45% to 22%, with 24% undecided
* Running as an independent, Lieberman gets 51%, to 27% for Lamont and 9% for Schlesinger.

Says pollster Douglas Schwartz: "Lamont is up, while Lieberman's Democratic support is dropping. More Democrats have a favorable opinion of Lamont, who was largely unknown last month, and see him as an acceptable alternative to Lieberman. But Lieberman’s strength among Republicans and independents gives him the lead in a three-way matchup in November."


This puts the lie to Joe's claim that only lefties and bloggers will show up to vote against him on primary day. Most Dems just don't want you, Joe! Fess up on why you're really going independent!

MikeCT said...

The poll is up.

Genghis Conn said...

Lieberman must have had these numbers, or something very similar, two weeks ago.

He must be kicking himself. Then he's probably going to go find Sean Smith and kick him.

Genghis Conn said...

Good eye. I checked maybe two minutes ago.

GMR said...

So the most likely scenario, according to this poll, is that Joementum loses the primary, wins as an independent and then in the Senate rejoins the Democrats, either as a Democrat, or as an Independent (and would be the second Independent to caucus with the Democrats since Bernie Sanders looks like he'll win easily).

What'll this say about the Democrats? The Republicans will have a field day. "The Democrat Party can't even trust its own voters". "The Party has been taken over by extremists". "The Far Left controls the Democrat party".

Lieberman losing the primary will also likely pit sitting Democrat senators against each other as they take sides in this race before the general election. Look for things to get very interesting.

CTObserver said...

Lamont has truly become a phenom! Once he gets past the primary, his numbers among Rs and Us should also move. This is going to be a great race this fall.

But, GC, 'Rell's numbers moving south'??? The only number that moved was favorability, though she's still at 59-7! Head to head match ups didn't move at all. (Both are within margin of error.) All of the noise since the Convention, and JDS' and DM's media buys haven't brought them any closer to her.

Gio said...

Ned is going to have to hit up the wife for more $$$ if he wins, he may even have to dip into his own principal, he has been all over the airwaves, spending his fortune...

Genghis Conn said...

Any movement in Rell's numbers is interesting. I agree, not significant yet, but still worth talking about.

The Architect said...

"Rell's numbers moving south" lol.... just another example of spin spin spin from this left-leaning blog.

Clinton is coming to campaign for Lieberman:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/07/explain_away_th.html

MikeCT said...

WNPR has a live show now on blogs and their impact (9-10 am). Call in at 860-275-7266 or e-mail at wherewelive@wnpr.org. Can also listen online.

ProgCT said...

Gio: I'd rather he spend his money than some special interest group's like Holy Joe.

Anonymous said...

Labor Unions losing credibility. Jodi Rell gets an F? ctcentral

Really, who believes that! You can see why reasonable Democrats like Joan Hartley,Paul Doyle & Jeff Berger have told some of the unions to go pound sand.

Rank & File no longer agrees with their leadership and membership is getting restless. Trying to punish people for not following their every command is causing Labor to lose their clout.

bluecoat said...

sounds like Jodi and Alan Gold will kiss and makeup in:GOP's Schlesinger hoping for unified campaign from the Norwalk Advocsate

Anonymous said...

Doyle, Berger and Hartley are anti-union, but reasonable or smart are not among their collective character traits.

bluecoat said...

I guess this is the post you were referring to on Jodi getting an F in mangement from the union:Rell Takes Heat On Juvenile Justice State Workers Critical Of Leadership, Vision July 20, 2006
By COLIN POITRAS, Courant Staff Writer
and another story about a high ranking state cop State Turns The Heat Up On Senick July 20, 2006 By TRACY GORDON FOX, Courant Staff Writer

bluecoat said...

Bubba Clinton to come to CT and stump for his old buddy Joe I guess Joe doesn't have a morals problem with Bubba anymore.
and more labor trouble for Jodi?State police managers vote to form union

Anonymous said...

Doyle is the worst example of a Democrat and will get smoked in November. Berger who served 20 years as a Police Officer is a traitor to his former brothers and sisters and Hartley a teacher needs a little more education.

Anonymous said...

Doyle is going to leave his corpulent opponent in the dust and upon taking office, the unions can start making appoinments to kiss his a**.

Anonymous said...

Isn't Berger's opponent the owener of the bar where that alderman got drunk and then killed a woman in a hit and run? Golly, waterbury voters would be crazy not to elect him!

Anonymous said...

what is really corpulent is the amount of money that Doyle has earned as attorney for the CRRA while a State legislator. Now there's a story! Doyle is history!

BRubenstein said...

GC..i told you and the rest of the bloggers that this would happen in both races months ago...and i posted the numbers to the races...

can we have a discussion on the more technical aspects of these races soon as oppossed to just reacting to polls and spin?

Id like to see a in-depth discussion of what and how each candidacy is pursueing its AB programs, etc.

Anonymous said...

Ahh the CT Democrat Primary, the election that personal fortune could buy. Way to go Ned, you proved you had more money.

bluecoat said...

Ross Perot's money sent Bill Clinton to the Whitehouse in place of BushI. What's the beef with personal financing of a job search anyway? Ned's buying Ned's influence instead of special moneyed interests buying it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 10:21..So you want to blame the bar owner and not the drunk?

bluecoat said...

state law blames both - or more correctly holds them accountable for thir individual actions - except that in CT every secretly appointed prosecutor has it's own set of rules on how to apply the laws in its fiefdom.

Anonymous said...

Let's also not forget all the money Doyle made on bank stocks while he was leading the Banks Committee!

(not to mention he comes from the smallest part of the district, is virtually unknown throughout the rest, has the personality of a dead gnat, and has raised the majority of his funds from lobbyists, businesses, etc. from outside the district)

Tom McBride for Senate!

Anonymous said...

Thanks to Alan Gold's deft touch with the press, I can't wait to see what Hamilton and the Courant do to him! Time to call 1-800-Get-A-Date, Mr. Gold!

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or the fact that only 1/3 of the people voting for Lamont are voting FOR Lamont, and not against Lieberman troublesome?

While I appreciate the desire for change, I always worry about voting against someone, rather than for someone. That says to me that anyone that challenged Joe with some money could get 34% in a primary.

BRubenstein said...

anon 11:34...what that means is a 3 day old corpse could beat Joementum in a primary...don't blame Lamont for the anti-Joe vote...blame Joe..his tenureship as a Senator and the bashing of the party by him has caused his problems.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

A little-noted Q-poll finding about Democratic primary voters backs you up:

If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and a three day old corpse, for whom would you vote?

Lieberman 47%
3 day old corpse 50%
Undecided 3%

Looks real bad for Joe, though he might pass as a 3 day old corpse.

Anonymous said...

anon 11:11: Assuming you have any interest in the truth, Doyle was not chair of that committee as claimed by those spinless allegations that were released either by the Capenera camp because they would have preferred to take on McBride a severly wounded animal or the McBride camp because they could see that Paul had the nomination wrapped up and it was an act of desperation on their part. Now, I don't know which camp you are in but let's try to keep this some what accurate. Either way, Paul trounced McBride and now he trounces Capenera.

bluecoat said...

Lieberman and Sean Smith have been bitching that Lamont owns a mutual fund that owns som Halliburton butJoe has no problem taking money from Bechtel and Flour who get a fair amount of defense contract work. CT citizens should be lucky that Joe can't fund his own job search?

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:14-
So you're saying Doyle made money on the very banks he was regulating on that committee, but since he wasn't chairman it's OK? I get it...thanks!

And please, Doyle didn't "trounce" McBride...he beat him and only because Tom is a loyal guy did he step aside to let Paul have a smooth run at it. As for him trouncing Capenera--I wouldn't bet on it. If you're spending any time in the district, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Anonymous said...

Bruce--

As a former senior campaign operative and campaign guru (albeit ancient history).... asking for an 'in-depth discussion of what and how each candidacy is pursuing its AB programs, etc' is LAUGHABLE.

Maybe GC should arrange a live chat session with Coke and Pepsi to share the recipes, too?

Or we can find out the secret incredients to the KFC's batter?

What kind of senior operative were you, who would discuss these things three weeks before a vote?

It's one thing, and probably a great idea, if GC could pull off a post mortum forum, if the campaigns would participate.

But to even - on multiple occcasions -- ask for this sort of public briefing prior to the primary (or election day) is ridiculous.

Perhaps it is for these kind of ideas that you are a former operative.

Anonymous said...

Slick Willy coming to Waterbury, in the heart of the 5th Congressional district. I can't wait to see whether Chris Murphy shows up to support Lieberman or if he snubs the former Prez. Promises to be interesting!

Anonymous said...

That will be interesting about Murphy. This calls into question the judgement of the 3 congressional challengers. Clinton obviously sees that Lieberman is eventually going to win his seat back and he needs to stay in Joe's good graces for Hillary's run.

When Farrell and Courtney and Murphy all endorse Ned when he wins the primary and then Joe evenutally wins his seat back, they will be in trouble with the Joe-man.

My bet- Murphy sticks with his endorsement of Lieberman and enjoys the nice photo op with Clinton

BRubenstein said...

Dear Anon 12:59

Many of us are slightly tired of just the staffers spinning anonymously and want to talk about and analyze something more concrete then bald assertions.

Do try to remember that my record is 7 for 9 in state wide races, while you dont even have a record i bet.

BTW im not a former operative..but im sure you already knew that.

Please let us know why you refuse to say who you are and can only talk under the covers.

TrueBlueCT said...

Farrell, Courtney and Murphy are done if Lieberman makes good his threat to run on the (I)-ticket. (In this case, "I" will stand for Incumbent, and that's who Joe will be running with.)

Heck, who can forget Joe marching arm-in-arm with Nancy Johnson during Waterbury's Memorial Parade?

Clinton isn't coming to remain within Joe's good graces. He's coming to encourage Joe to enter the private sector. As soon as Lieberman loses this primary he is done. Sure, he might squeak out a November win, but the fallout from selfishly dividing CT Dems will be huge, what with Rahm Emmanuel counting on our 3 Dem challengers in his quest to take over the House.

Again, even if Joe were to win in November, he would be rendered a laughing-stock. For that reason, I believe Bill Clinton will do his best to encourage Joe to retire with dignity.

BRubenstein said...

Trueblue...AS had a meeting with Rell and her folks yesterday and buried the hacthet...believe me his numbers will not stay in single digits after 8/8...this 3way race will be expensive and close.

Lets hope that the state party and elected officials wake up and realize that our party's decreased chances in November were generated by Joementum's very selfish choice of running as a " I"...but i doubt any of our party elite will call publically for him not to run that way.

MESSAGE TO PARTY ELECTED AND STATE PARTY OFFICIALS:

When you run as " all things to all people you end up being nothing to anyone"

Anonymous said...

It will be a sad day for Connecticut and The Democratic Party if this loser Ned Lamont,Tom Swan and The DFA Losers get control of the Party.

If DeStefano and Lamont win I will not be volunteering for neither campaign I may have to seriously consider voting for Rell and Schlesinger or Lieberman(as an Independent).

I am just so discouraged with the climate of the Democratic Party right now I have been involved in many campaigns over 25 years.I guess I will work on the State Senate Campaign I am campaign Manager for After November I guess i change my affiliation.

Because there is no way I will associate with these anti American Left Wing DFA Morons.I personally hate DFA they keep sending me crap after I have told them to stop I want absolutely nothing to do with The Bozos from DFA.

It is scary to think of the people who would be in control If Lamont were to win Tom Swan,Keith Crane and Other DFA Lackeys.

I am ashamed to be a Democrat with these Anti War, Anti American Losers.

TrueBlueCT said...

Tom Swan and Ned Lamont are kicking ass right now, because they have a winning message. You might re-think things, (and stop your whining).

No one within this movement is power mad, and only good things will come of these Dem primaries once the dust is settled.

And for the record, neither Tom Swan, Keith Crane, nor I are DFA people. As far as I'm concerned DFA is little more than a mailing list these days.

Anonymous said...

I don't plan to be too active after August 8th If the primary goes to Lamont Because The Democratic Party that i used to work hard for is being overtaken by people who I do not agree with.

I am not a fan of DeStefano's either so I may have 3 months where for the 1st time in 25 years I dont volunteer for the Governor or Senatorial campaign.

I am not whining I am stating my opinion that is the problem here is that if someone(me) is of a differing opinion(anti-LamonT) you are thrown to the wolves and I am just not happy with the Lamont Message because i have friends and family who have served or are serving in the military and I think they should be given support and not have to hear lets cut and run which is the wrong message.

but since I am in the minority here and no one will listen to my opinion anyway why should I care

BRubenstein said...

Anon's 2:40 and 3:43

If you want to change things then i suggest you start with yourselves by posting under your real names like i and others do...posting as anon shows us you dont have any balls or the courage of any convictions.

Frankly, Lamont is refreshing and has a very likeable and unpolished vaneer that shows in the pollings.

If you are unhappy with the basic Dem Party issues,candidates and/or programs..then switch to a party that best represents your views.

Anonymous said...

I hate to tell you guys, but Murphy is solidly in Lieberman's corner. Murphy has been campaigning with Lieberman at least once per week in the 5th district and even appeared on Foxnews with Joe. Clinton is coming to sing the praises of both Lieberman and Murphy and I expect both will be in Washington at this time next year.

Gio said...

If anonymous wants to post as anonynmous--so what??? It's not like a screen name means anything anyways. And anon has good points that Nedheads ignore.

Schlesinger ain't going anywhere in a 3 way race. Repubs will be quite happy voting for Joe. Whoever did the hit on Alan did a good job--Senator Wampun Card ain't gonna fly.

Gabe said...

Gio - Is one of Anon's good points that Lamobt sporters are unamerican? Because to me, thats kind of offensive...

ProgCT said...

2:40 Anon:

If anti-Iraq is anti-American than most Americans are now Anti-American?

Sounds like you are pretty confused to me. Maybe you should go campaign for the GOP if you support Bush's Iraq debacle so much.

Anonymous said...

I am offended that you Lamont supporters just want to forget the people who have fought to defend our country people like my Grandfather and his brother on my Mother's side and My Dad's father's 4 brothers all fought in World War II.

I am just totally not happy with this anti war behavior and to suggest that we pull our troops is Unamerican. It is a slap in the face to them.

I wish you Lamont Supporters would think on that one.

But there is no way I will support Ned Lamont should he win unless he gets off this anti war stance I am totally offended by this unacceptable position.

The State of The Democratic Party is in Jeopardy and I am Conservative But I am at a point I may change partys Because I am so uncomfortable with this stance.

GMR said...

"Tom Swan and Ned Lamont are kicking ass right now, because they have a winning message."

I don't know, but to me, the idea of leaving Iraq and just letting it be taken over by whomever doesn't seem like a "winning" message to me.

Anonymous said...

GMR.... you are correct in your observations. They are trying to spin it their way..Tom Swan and Ned Lamont want everyone to believe that pulling out of Iraq which is a turn tail and run strategy.

Not everybody in the Democratic Party Supports the Lamont/Swan and though some of the liberals are denying this The DFA.They are all involved and they think they speak for all Democrats. Well i am a Democrat and none of those anti war people speak for me and will never speak for me.

My Family have served in the Previous Wars especially World War II and to let this Ned Lamont who I compare to Benedict Arnold at this point Because he is betraying not only Connecticut but the whole country.

But on this blog if you are a supporter of the troops you are blasted by Ned's Liberal Army.

Anonymous said...

Prog CT.... because of you Lamont Idiots I just may do that...You people arent True Democrats..This is anti war,anti american crap and i will never identify myself to any of you liberal pinheads.

The Democratic Party ran by the Left Wing...i am so disgusted with you liberals.

You people wont let any of us who support Lieberman have a fair conversation All you idiots know how to do is bash us and trash us.

thats why I am not supporting Ned Lamont.

Anonymous said...

Plenty of veterans in my family, including my grandfather who's a WWII vet, are voting for Ned so that argument fails...


Interesting how good poll numbers for Ned have silenced Patricia...

Gabe said...

You people wont let any of us who support Lieberman have a fair conversation All you idiots know how to do is bash us and trash us.

If your idea of a fair conversation starts with calling the other side idiots and unamerican, I guess I agree - no conversation is possible...

ProgCT said...

8:20: Bye. Have fun advocating your illegal and immoral war of aggression.

I hear Rick Santorum could use some help in PA.

Gabe said...

Substantively, although all of the news reports that I have seen mention that the biggest driver for people to not support Lieberman is his position on Iraq (33% of Democrats who don't think Lieberman deserves reelection, 35% of likely Democratic primary voters, 20% of Indys and 14% of Republicans), I have not seen this pointed out anywhere:

26% of Democrats, 28% of likely Democratic primary voters and 13% of Indys listed either Too Conservative/Too Right Wing/Too Republican or Too Close to Bush as their main reason. I would argue that those two catagories are similiar enough to be one catagory.

Obviously, someone can choose that reason for alot of different reasons, including, Iraq, filibusters, tepid support of Social Security, etc., but it is an interesting poll result that many people are ignoring - Lieberman's closeless to Republicans, presumably on issues aside from the war since that had its own answer, is almost as large a driver of people away from Lieberman as is Iraq.

Do with it what you will.

Patricia Rice said...

Don't worry, I'm still here. Just getting a chuckle over all the negative Ned supporters. I've seen the poll results and they say that Ned would get creamed in a 3-way race. Regardless of what happens, Senator Lieberman will continue to represent Connecticut with the highest degree of honor and integrity. Keep having your fun boys.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Gabe said... "- Lieberman's closeless to Republicans, presumably on issues aside from the war ....


I can't think of anything; not one issue.

MikeCT said...

From Kevin Rennie on Political Wire via LamontBlog:

Advisors close to Republican governor Jodi Rell, who tried to get Schlesinger off the ticket last week, are scheming to give Lieberman a safe harbor on the GOP line in exchange for adding his drawing power to what they hope will be Rell’s. The potent combination would help three Republican congressmen, constitutional office candidates and some legislative hopefuls. State Central Committee would likely resist. Monday’s visit to Waterbury by former President Bill Clinton to rescue Lieberman’s primary campaign will be a bitter reminder at the wrong time that Lieberman is very much a Democrat. Lieberman pal John McCain, wildly popular among Connecticut GOP, might be able to smooth the path to a fusion ticket.

Gio said...

Why is it offensive for anon to suggest or think that Lamont supporters are un-American? Many Nedheads here constantly bash the war and the President--sure you can do that-noone is going to lock you up for doing that--but heaven forbid someone disagrees with you and you want to send them to PA to campaign for Santorum!!! Honestly the Nedheads are thin skinned and petty, really quite pathetic...and then you get pissed because people call you on it!!!

Earth to Nedheads--not everyone agrees with you. There's a political spectrum out there and should the Millionaire fom Greenwich win the primary, he's going to have to appeal to folks who are moderate and conservative as well.

Anonymous said...

Patricia, glad you're so sure about the 3 way race, where did I hear such certainty before...oh right, you were just as sure Joe was going to destroy ned in the primary. OOPS!

3 way isn't great now but Ned did close 9 points in that race without campaigning or mailing to I's or R's.

I don't think the primary or general is certain for either candidate, but hope that you are just as right as you were about the primary numbers :)

Anonymous said...

Why is it that conservatives insist on calling opponents of the Iraq war "anti-American?"

Does "supporting the troops" have to mean supporting the President and Senator Lieberman's open-ended deployement? Does it have to mean refusing to question their justifications for the original invasion? Does it have to mean accepting a years-long occupation of Iraq, fueling anti-American sentiment throughout the middle east? Does it have to mean rejecting establishment of a clear path to ending the occupation, getting our troops out of harms way and bringing them home?

Supporting the troops does not mean any of those things. My son is serving in Iraq today. I am very, very proud of him and the sacrifice he is making. He signed up to serve his country. He is doing his duty despite his deep personal disagreement with the President's decision to go to war without a plan to disengage once Saddam was taken out.

I love America. When I was a child, my father was killed in action in Vietnam. I was proud to follow in his footsteps and joined the Army when I graduated from high school. I believe in this country and its values. Sending our children to fight and die in the occupation of Iraq does not promote American values.

The Democrats who call for a clear plan to disengage from Iraq and bring our troops home are right. God willing, they will win control of congress this fall and our nation can look forward to welcoming our troops home alive and well.

There's a Ned Lamont lawn sign in front of my house because I could not look my son in the eye if I voted for Senator Lieberman.

Gio said...

Anon-That's great that you and yours serve in the military, kudos to you and thanks!!

Your right to protest, indeed the whole left's right to disagree with the war has never been at issue. You have been protesting since day one, even before day one. But your disagreement with the war has not proven itself to be an effective political platform to this point. If Ned wins the primary, you still have to win the general, which also means convincing people who support the war to support Ned--that's going to be a challenge, to say the least. The McGovern wing of the Democrat party was not succesful in the past and judging by the lack of mass protest of this war I doubt will be succesful in the future.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Here's the dealy. The part of my job that I hated the most was interpreting polling for the managers / principals.

I will say that as the race tightens, the likely voter profile gets more unstable, making the poll much less reliable.

It could fire up Joe's guys, it might fire up Ned's guys because they have a shot.

BUT the most likely scenario, based on recent history, is that the establishment actually turns out to beat the upstart. The Iowa Caucuses and the Dean campaign are exhibit A.

Ned should be investing a heck of a more in GOTV than TV right now.

ProgCT said...

It is offensive to suggest that people who are anti-war are un-American because it is the only sane position available. Those who use the Rove talking points about attacking those who don't support illegal wars of aggression do not belong in the party where 90% of its members disagree with the War in Iraq. You say "support the troops" I say that is exactly what we are doing. We are supporting them while you are letting them rot in the deserts and cities of Iraq.

If it is un-American to think that this war was a HORRIBLE idea in every way than a significant majority of Americans are now un-American. So if most Americans think the war in Iraq was a mistake and you disagree with most Americans. Wouldn't you be the one who is anti-American? I wouldn't agree with that of course; you're not anti-American you're just highly misguided and are blindly loyal to people who lied to you, lied to us, and lied to our troops.

Anonymous said...

Ned Lamont and Tom Swan obviously hiding something from the public and still will not release his last 5 years worth of Income tax Returns(Oh He is hiding something too bad we will not find out until after the primary)

And now we find out he has stock in Haliburton that is the pot calling the kettle black.

The Liberals and The DFA posse strike again!!!!!!!!

Why dont all of you liberals come clean.Oh that is right you are all creeps and thugs.

Well see you in November when Lieberman kicks the little rich boy's ass back to his Greenwich Empire. You may win the battle(Primary) But Lieberman wins the war(election)in more ways than one.

Anonymous said...

Left Said Ned Lamont, North korea and Iran's New Comrade. Someone should tell Tom Swan that he needs to where a tie He is Campaign Manager of US Senate Race.

At Least Sean Smith looks and acts more professional than Swan does.

But that is what The DFA and The Liberals love Oh thats right they are thugs so they can do what they want same as Lamont will do if he ever gets to Washington DC.