Monday, July 24, 2006

Fifteen Days

We're heading into the home stretch for the primary. Bill Clinton's in Waterbury today, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) will be touring Connecticut with Joe Lieberman beforehand. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is also in the state campaigning for Ned Lamont, and former Clinton appointee Carl Feen is endorsing the challenger. Expect the national media to descend in force starting today, and continuing through August 8th.

All of which means that it's a great time for a predictions thread! Who's going to win in the U.S. Senate (D), gubernatorial (D) and 1st Congressional District (R) primary? By how much?

Feel free to offer guesses about turnout, too. We'll do this again next week to see if perceptions are changing.

26 comments:

Patricia Rice said...

The most respected leaders in the Democratic party are coming to campaign for Senator Lieberman. If they can drive out the reasonable thinking Democrats, Negative Ned is all done. Negative Ned has done nothing except try to associate Bush to Lieberman. The kooks on the far left applaud this tactic but most Democrats think Negative Ned is just some rich guy trying to buy a Senate seat.

My guess is, large voter turnout and Lieberman wins with 57% of the vote.

disgruntled_republican said...

US Senate Primary:
Ned Lamont 54%
Joe Lieberman 46%

Governor
John DeStefano 59%
Dan Malloy 41%

1st Congressional
MacLean 61%
Marsullo 39%

Turn-out will be right on average as in the past.

Max said...

Lamont wins 55-45, and Lieberman bows out.

DeStephano wins 57-43.

Turnout is 25-30%.

Gio said...

While I am philosophically with Ms. Rice...this race has turned away from Joe. he is going to need all the help he can get, and he will be getting alot, he needs to advertise-heavily.

Joe by 1-2 points, 26% turnout.

Genghis Conn said...

I'm not sure Clinton and Boxer (and others) help Lieberman all that much. People voting for Lamont don't really seem to care what party leaders think.

The True Gentleman said...

I think voter turn-out will be higher than normal. And oddly enough, I think that will benefit the challenger in the Senate race.

Senate (Primary)
Lamont - 52%
Lieberman - 48%

Gubernatorial (Primary)
DeStefano - 55%
Malloy - 45%

Patricia Rice said...

GC. You are correct. The far left liberals who are voting for negative Ned could care less about Clinton, Boxer, Delauro, Larson, Dodd etc...They have already agreed that voting 90% with your party is not good enough. The Democratic super stars will motivate moderate D's who ordinarily would not go out to vote in a primary who will overwhelming choose Lieberman.

mod.dem.like.jfk said...

Senate-

Lieberman 51
Lamont 49

Lieberman turns out non party activist Dems, the cities come through big and more Labor goes for Joe than goes for Lamont. Expect a nail biter with ballots being challenged and the official result being delayed for a few days.

Destefano over Malloy 57 to 43.

Turnout at 37%

On the other side

MaClean 5
Massullo 3

(those last two are measured in votes, not percentages)

BRubenstein said...

GC..you could have used my fat and figure based prior predictions instead of letting folks post guesses

Mr X said...

Predictions... The 1st one may or may not of made it so I am doing it again so if it appears twice I apologize


US Senate
Lieberman 51%
Lamont 49%

I still support Joe But depending on this week I could see these numbers flip around to Ned.

Governor
DeStefano-58%
Malloy-42%

Unless DeStefano stumbles (I cant see it happening)My choice Malloy needs a big play to pull this off.

Voter Turnout 34%

Genghis Conn said...

It's fun to predict these things, though.

Mr X said...

Bruce... I would like to hear your numbers on both races.

GC... I think we all should write down these predictions from today,I am sure you will do another a week before and compare to what happens on Primary Day it would be interesting to see who actually gets it right.

Anonymous said...

Turnout is 10-15%....you guys are all too close to it. Most people don't even know what daythe primary is happening.

Lamont wins with 56% of the vote.
DeStefano wins with 54% of the vote.

BRubenstein said...

Bilko...check my prior postings...

In sum...JDS will get 2/1 over DM on the labor vote which traditionally is 25-30% of the total vote..

we can expect a 30% turnout of the 700,000 dems...


Jds to beat DM i think like 55-60 to 40-45

justinh said...

"Far-left liberals" and "Negative Ned"? That's quite a rant. I wonder what makes us liberals Far left. And negative in comparison to a "positive" Lieberman? As reflected in the daily accusations issued by the Lieberman campaign?

Jawelcome said...

Just wanted to give people a heads up who would like to see Ned in Waterbury today. If not, just disregard this posting. Ned's event for tonight has been scheduled for at least six weeks. THere is a lot of excitement about Fmr. Pres. Clinton coming to town and I'm hearing a lot of interested folks will be stopping by to hear Ned after the Lieberman rally:

Waterbury Meet And Greet With
Ned Lamont
Democrat For United States Senate
Monday, July 24, 2006
6 p.m. – 9 p.m.
Ned will speak at 7 p.m.

Suggested Donation $35
hors d’oeuvre, cocktails and live music
(Cash Bar)
Vasi’s Restaurant and Bar
1700 Watertown Avenue
Waterbury, Connecticut

Please Call For More Information:
James Welcome
(jamesawelcome@yahoo.com)
Tel. 203.605.0346
Ioannis (John) Kaloidis
(Kaloidis@sbcglobal.net)
Tel. 203.518.1989

BRubenstein said...

The Senate Race...By way of disclosure..im for Lamont personally


I think the turnout will be 30%.
In 1994 the curry v. larson governor primary race in september was 26%....August 8th features a 2 race primary,so i believe the % will be higher, based upon the following evidence....

I suppested to GC that he or someone be delegated to inquire about the AB's and the u to d's and never got a response from GC...therefore i called 5 towns myself and the register of voters of every town indicated that the AB's and u to d's were coming in heavier then usual for a primary. The Lamont campaign has been pushing a u to d effort in their " friends and neighbors" program on their webblog.To my knowledge Joementum's campaign has done nothing about switching u to d's or AB's either.That being said..its my belief that most of the u to d switches are Lamont induced and the AB's also and that combined with the unusual national appeal of this race and the Democratic abhorance for the Iraq War in which they see Joe are very responsible for it, would indicate a higher % then the historical 26% of the last contested primay in 1994 ( curry v. larson)

I was first to indicate internal polls favoring Lamont a few weeks ago. It is only half the story though.The "intensity" polling has Lamont far ahead..meaning...his supporters are 20% more committed to voting then Joe's.

Neither campaign has submitted to the public any internal polls, but my sources have indicated the above or varified them.

If the race were run right now given al the above its my belief that Lamont would win with somewhere around 55 to 60% of the vote and Joementum at 45 to 40%

Ive tried to be as objective as i could be with this.

Anonymous said...

an I the only person who sees the irony of Israel fighting for its existence and Ned Lamont inviting one of the biggest opponents of Israel in Congress,Maxine Waters, to campaign for him?

I'm sure lots of Jewish people will vote for Lamont. When the headlines are all over Al-Jazeera about the "jewish lobby" being humbled maybe they'll spit up breakfast

By the way, was the Round Hill Club subject to any "gentlemen's agreement"? Lots of the old line WASP clubs in Greenwich were, and may still be doing it.

Anonymous said...

Lamont event: I am so disappointed by how rude the Lamont staff was to me a few newbies. I expectecd people to be frienly and nice and welcoming etc. But no, because I didn't support John DeStefano, and I'm with Dan Malloy, people were flat out rude. Tonight's event solidified my support to Stick with Joe. You should have tried to be more inclusive. There are still SOOOOO many people, like me, who are undecided. None of the candidates have this locked up and field staff should NEVER forget that.

Anonymous said...

This is a tough one to predict since so few people actually vote in a primary in AUGUST.

I say:

Lamont pulls in out with a small minority of the vote but Joe will win in November.

Malloy beats DeStefano by 10% or so... Those Malloy staffers WORK! Everywhere I go, they are there working the crowd. It's quite impressive.

Anonymous said...

To the whiny Malloy supporter who said the staff was rude: I am not staff but I was at the event in Waterbury for Ned. It was a very good atmosphere. I witnessed this so called rude treatment i nthe same room--it was far from it. A bunch of college kids for Malloy felt like they could just walk into a private function for a totally unrelated campaign with their T-shirts and stickers and pass out flyers! Have some respect!! They weren't even invited. I repeat--people paid to attend a private event. And if they asked any campaign staff with any experience they would have been told how lame their actions were. Both the Senate campaigns and the governor campaigns are not endorsing in the other races. And staffers for Lamont very cordially informed them that they were welcome, and didn't have to pay like everyone else, (because they were all college teenagers) but under no circumstances could they pass out flyers. Talk about rude. Rookies!!! Get a clue!!

Anonymous said...

You are confused. This wasn't a "private function". Look at Ned's webpage where is tells of a Meet and Greet with a suggested donation.

These "college kids" are local Hartford area Lamont volunteers and wanted to attend what was advertised as not a private event with invite only but a "Meet and Greet" and they wanted to grab a litle bite and "Meet and Greet" Mr. Lamont as the Lamont website advertised. They weren't interested in going to the Lieberman event but support Ned so they thought they would stop by... They had a Malloy sticker on. They support Dan Malloy for Governor and Ned Lamont for US Senate. Wow! If people support anybody other than Mr. Lamont, they aren't allowed into a Meet and Greet? Really? I can't believe the Lamont campaign staff and volunteers support that theory. These "college kids" who vote, by the way, support Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy. They aren't competitors. We all need each other. People are voting the line here in this election. These "college kids" carry around materials about Dan all the time as I'm sure Lamont people do (not to mention anybody that volunteers on a campaign)). They always have flyers on them. They are interested in politics. They weren't there to "pass out flyers" but to see what the campaign was all about. You should really be more welcoming. One of these "college kids" parents are MAXED OUT DONORS and huge supporters. Talk about getting a clue! A quick, "Thanks for coming" would have been more than appropriate.

You shouldn't be so quick to judge. It's these "college kids" who help Ned, too.

Anonymous said...

Also... you are a great storyteller. Those Malloy kids were dressed in plain clothes. No tee-shirts supporting any candidate. Nice visual, though. Makes the story much more entertaining. Lamont staff must have more important issues to deal with that a few college volunteers who actually volunteer for Ned, right?

ctblogger said...

Ah, what?

I was at the Lamont event also and I wonder if Jo from the Malloy campaign knows that you're spreading lies on a blog.

Oh yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out who you are since I (and two other video bloggers) videotaped the entire event and panned the audience at least three times. I should have no problem picking out the Malloy people since most of them had Malloy stickers on their shirts.

As for Lamont or his campaign being "rude", that is a complete lie as I was everyone (including those with Malloy stickers on) having a great time.

As for the Malloy people passing out Malloy material, I didn't see that since I was busy reporting on the event BUT if that did happen, it was VERY uncool and whoever did that should be kicked off the Malloy campaign pronto.

TrueBlueCT said...

Hey,

I was at the event too. Towards the end of the event, the Malloy posse of four accosted me as I was going back in side after walking a friend to his car.

I saw their Malloy/Lamont stickers and smiled. They asked me about my affiliation, and I just smiled and told them I was from New Haven. They pressed me again, and I tried to suggest I was a high-information blogger type, who wasn't going to be persuaded on the "street" by a couple of young volunteers.

I then had to listen as I was told how unelectable my candidate was, that didn't I know, John DeStefano was very corrupt, etc.

The most humorous moment came when, almost out of ammo, some young guy named "Cole" (sp?) blurted out, "So you'd want a Governor whose father was a cop!?!)

To this, I just shook my head in sheer disbelief and walked away.

P.S. I had no real problem with the young folks' aggressive enthusiasm for Dan Malloy. It was comical and reminded me of myself as a teenager. But I will suggest that if Malloy supporters are going to carry on like that, they have no business posting anonymous criticisms of Lamont staffers. That's really out of line.

Anonymous said...

The Lamont people deserve everything they are getting They started the nastyness in this Campaign It all started with dumpjoe.com and followed by DFA so they shouldnt criticize Lieberman or Malloy supporters Because Lamont Supporters have been so opinionated and mean spirited like the trolls they are.

Countdown to the end of DFA...13 days

Countdown to Ned Lamont's return to Private Citizen....13 days

Vote for the REAL DEMOCRATS VOTE LINE A.....MALLOY, GLASSMAN AND LIEBERMAN

LINE B..... DESTEFANO,SLIFKA AND LAMONT....The Line for DISASTER AND LIBERALS