Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The Replacements

If Kevin Rennie and a few others are right, then the rest of the week is going to see the rollout of more hits against Alan Schlesinger (starting with the fact that he hasn't filed any of his July campaign finance forms), which may finally lead him to drop out of the race.

So who will replace him on the ticket? The Republican state central committee will choose the new candidate. Here's a list of possible and impossible candidates for them to consider:


The Possible

Bill Aniskovich

He's got better name recognition than Schlesinger, can raise money, and would probably appeal to the Republican base. Best of all, he's actually interested. However, his Rowland ties, a reportedly seamy past and his loss to Ed Meyer in 2004 raise many questions about the viability of a potential Aniskovich candidacy.

Jack Orchulli

Republican diehards like him. 67% of the rest of voters decided they preferred the other guy in 2004. But in 2006, 33% or thereabouts might be good enough. He also has money, which is a plus.

Diana Urban

The bad news is that Republicans don't actually like her, as her positions on most issues are quite liberal. However, she could more realistically portray herself as a sane, center-left alternative to Lamont and Lieberman.

Kevin O'Connor

The U.S. attorney has good name recognition and a strong background. He'd be a great candidate, if he were interested. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to be.


The Unlikely/Impossible

Jodi Rell

Most popular Republican in these parts. But already has a job, and a big lead over her rivals.

Nancy Johnson, Chris Shays, Rob Simmons

A dream scenario for Republicans would be if one of the three Republican members of Congress took a run at Lieberman, while leaving a capable Republican candidate to run in their district. This is the Weicker 1970 scenario--which, as Republicans recall, actually worked. For example, if Johnson ran for Senate and, say, Sam Caligiuri ran for Congress, GOP chances are pretty decent in both races. But it isn't going to happen.

John Rowland

Waterbury would be a lock. And it's a great story--the once popular governor who has learned his lesson. I swear, a lot of people would still vote for him.

In the end, I imagine that we'll see either Orchulli or Aniskovich enter the race if and when Schlesinger steps aside. Both would be better than Schlesinger--but probably not enough to actually win without some serious outside help. Which may, in fact, be coming. The NRSC is apparently getting interested in this race--and will become more so if Lieberman loses in two weeks.

But if Schlesinger remains the candidate, I don't think their interest will matter for much.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's gonna be a woman, and it won't be Urban-sprawl. Either a downstate, Fairfield County state rep, or someone else who can bring some cash to the contribution table. Orchulli had his chance; ain't no way Aniskovitch is going to get it; Urban is anathema. Going with a woman breaks it open; She'll take, say 1/3rd of the women (which is 18% of the vote), 15-20% of the male vote (figure republicans and u's who can't make up their mind) which gives her 25-35% of the vote without even getting to the issues. A female candidate will probably take equally from both Lie-berman and Lamont, drawing their numbers down.

At least, that's my bet. ;)

Genghis Conn said...

How about Eunice Groark? I heard her name mentioned as a possible candidate a few weeks ago. Not sure how Republicans feel about her ties to Weicker (she was his LG), but she could actually do pretty well, I think.

Anonymous said...

OK -- Here are some dark horses to keep an eye on. Most are more realistic than those identified in the post:

John McKinney - state senator from Fairfield. He's ambitious and has good name recognition on the gold coast.

Mark Boughton - mayor of Danbury. Highest profile Republican mayor in the state.

Ross Garber - Republican nominee for State Treasurer in 2002. good fundraiser; popular with the base. But was Rowland's lawyer during impeachment.

Rob Bouvier - former mayor of West Hartford. ambitious; well spoken. was a Republican mayor in a very Democratic town.

Bob Ward - retiring state house minority leader. perceived as a statesman. Doesn't seem to have the fire in the belly, but might do it for the good of the party.

Kevin O'Connor would be the best bet. He has the credibililty and can raise the money. It would be a mistake for him to take a pass.

Don Pesci said...

Eunice was dubbed by Weicker "the mother of the state income tax," so sure -- Republicans love her. Aren't two women of importance a little much? How about Lisa Moody?

Brassett said...

As someone who's greatest fear is that this will all lead to the GOP grabbing the seat, Groark's name sends chills down my spine.

Anonymous said...

No wait, how about Kevin Rennie? He's wasting his talent at the Courant. They don't need another progressive commentator, but the Republican's sure could use one.

Anonymous said...

Let's think a bit unconventional

David Stockman: Lives in Greenwich. Worth a fortune. Bright as all hell. Reagan credentials. Original deficit hawk

Jim Vicevich: Well liked and would run rings around anyone he debated

Jack Welch: Think Ross Perot with fewer personality quirks. Could buy and sell Lamont before breakfast with the money left over from his divorce. And no, daddy in Salem, MA didn't run JP Morgan

Chris Scalzo; Did pretty well the last time he pinch hit for a failed GOP candidate

Anonymous said...

Two other longshots -- but I've heard both of their names in the last few days...

-- Barbara Franklin.... former Secretary of Commerce under Bush 41... plus other gov't experience... Chairman, NY Economic Club.. married to Wally Barnes of Bristol... could raise serious $$.

-- Themis Klarides.... State Rep from Derby. best looking state legislator (ok, what's that got to do with anything)... Articulate... Attorney... Ties to Greenwich... could also raise big $$ in short period of time..

Gio said...

Rowland--Wouldn't that be a hoot!!!

According to Fred Barnes on the dreaded Fox News Channel--the White House has no intention of "martyring" Joe. So whoever runs is not likely to get support from DC.

Anonymous said...

"It's gonna be a woman, and it won't be Urban-sprawl"

Themis Klarides?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 9:03, don't think it will be any of them (or if it will be, he won't be successful). Another bland white guy makes it a three way race between bland white guys. No big shot at bringing a minority in (Gen. Fig Newton is/has moved out of state), so the only way to re-arrange the deck is with a woman.

Anonymous said...

the Only GOP person who could run would be Jodi Rell who would have a realistic chance. Forget Ross Garber he's a Rowland/Rell Hack and Mark Boughton would not stand a chance due to his nasty stance with immigration issues in Danbury.

Anonymous said...

Why couldn't it be Joe Lieberman? Obviouosly nobody in the CT GOP leadership wants Lieberman gone, if only because his presence infuriates Democrats. Couldn't they endorse him, regardless of whether he wants their endorsement? After the primary, I see a situation in which Republicans court him heavily, a la Jim Jeffords in reverse. He won't jump, of course, but how do we know he won't caucus with them given a committee chairmanship?

The True Gentleman said...

Genghis, you can move Kevin O'Connor to the unlikely/impossible list (much to my disappointment).

Anonymous said...

Bouvier? Fell off the end of the earth. Klarides? Not a particularly good speaker. Urban? Are you f'ing kidding me? She has slept with more Democratic Reps than she has Republican Reps voting with her. How about Livvy Floren, wife of a wealthy hedge fund guy, has some of that Granny Rell charm, the voice of reason on the GAE committee. Can run for both her very safe house seat and the Senate at the same time. Of course, Joe would just paint her as another Greenwich millionaire.....

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Hate to ruin your thread but Alan showed up tonight at the GOP St Cent meeting and swore up and down he's not leaving the race.

He then fielded questions for about a half and hour.

Anonymous said...

What people don't seem to realize is that the Senate race will be over two weeks from now. Either Lieberman pulls it out, or Mr. Lamont goes to Washington.

Joe to his credit will not switch parties out of desperation. Nor will he go through with his threat to make this a 3-way race. It's simple, neither of these contigencies make sense for the Lieberman family in the long run.

Sure, Joe could pull off a victory in a November re-match. But what kind of a victory would it be? Equally likely would be a 2nd Lamont win, or a Repub theft of a blue Senate seat. Either of the last two outcomes would be devastating to the Liebermans.

So why risk it? This game is to be played in full over the next two weeks. Let's hope CT votes for change, and not a continuation of the status quo.

Anonymous said...

Three other possibilities:

-Chris Burnham - former state treasurer, very wealthy

-Jennifer Blei Stockman - David Stockman's wife and a prominent pro-choice Republican

-Pam Sawyer - state rep from Bolton, well-liked and a good campaigner

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous said... "
Either Lieberman pulls it out, or Mr. Lamont goes to Washington."


I wouldn't bet the farm on that.

If it comes down to Joe or Lamont the GOP will keep him in office just the way we put him there in the first place back in 1988.

Anonymous said...

"swore up and down he's not leaving the race."

You know, profanity is common among professional gamblers

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anonymous 9:03pm said... "
Mark Boughton - mayor of Danbury.
"

Leave the KKK and American Nazi Party of this.

Anonymous said...

Gee, with the way you guys/gals post, how can the GOP say they don't have a bench?!!

Klarides would have been the right person if she'd gotten in from the start. If Alan has to go, and I hope that if something else comes out he does, then R's need someone who can dump a bunch of money in quick, and has some existing appeal. That's why Orchulli seems like the best choice--he can go from 0 to 60 faster than nearly anyone else.

The Architect said...

Chris Burnham has a cushy UN Assistant Secretary General job now, he won't leave that.

Joe said...

They should just nominate Joe!

Anonymous said...

Strategically, a Klarides run gets her exposure across the state she'll never get holding a state hosue seat and builds a political appratus for the possible Dodd open in '10 or the possible open Gov office.

One way you build a bench is to get them in the game even if they lose the first time so they are ready the next time

turfgrrl said...

The only thing that makes sense for the GOP to do in the event of a 3-way race, is to bring in someone with high name recognition from outside the political sphere. Otherwise its status quo.

GMR said...

How come no one has mentioned Ann Coulter? She lives in New Canaan, or at least she did.

She wouldn't win, but with her in a three way race, this contest would get so much attention by the national press there'd hardly be coverage of anything else. Especially if Ann can keep the remarks coming. Come election day, most people in Connecticut might be amazed to find that there was also an election for governor, congress, state senate and state house.

A Coulter candidacy would also let us know if Lieberman or Lamont had a better organization, based on the amount of time it would take either campaign to issue a press release denouncing Ann after she makes some sort of ridiculous statement. There'd probably be a running total about which campaign scored first and got their press release out first, like Lieberman 12, Lamont 9 (as of August 11th).

And the debates...

Genghis Conn said...

GMR,

That would break the wackiness meter.

Conservacut said...

Schlesinger will be on the ballot - period. He didn't swear - just made a good impression. This is kid's stuff. In the 40's and 50's - they called each other "commie sympathizers" now it's a card counters and trying to beat the house is a crime. Alan did a good job last night, albeit with a friendly crowd who did ask some tough questions. Most of the anger was against the Governor for bagging him

Anonymous said...

Honestly I enjoy reading these blogs on a daily basis but believe me for sheer entertainment purposes only. I couldn’t stand by any longer and let this silliness go on. I can’t reveal my name on the internet however I can say I’m a very visible member of state politics, that has been sitting in on many of these private meetings regarding Alan (no I’m not Alan). I have to say I’ve seen maybe one or two quotes by people on this site that actually made any sense you guys are doing nothing but speculating and you none of you seem to be even close to the truth. Can you really pretend to be in the know about this on when you clearly don’t know what’s going on? Alan is not dropping out of the race at all, State Central is 100% behind him, the only Republican in this state that thinks Alan should step aside is Gov. Rell and believe me it’s not for character reasons. Please keep the speculation to a minimum although it is entertaining you could not be farther from the truth. If you have a sense of history as well you would know Alan’s campaign is far from sunk and it be foolish to count him out. It’s a whole new ball game after the primary. Anyway I look forward to posting more on here I thought my first one should be a bang get some people with delusions of grandeur a little whirled up!

Chris MC said...

A9:10 -
You should get some innocuous handle so that you're anonymity isn't compromised but we know which Anon it is when you post.

Welcome.

Anonymous said...

Haha Perhaps I should. But thank you. Do you guys think this other "story" on the Schlesinger campaign is going break? I'll have to admit I'm not sure, I know they want to run it but are having trouble finding actual facts. I know the schlesinger campaign is afraid that they will print it. It's a much better story that a wompum card. Even than Alan won't bow out he is the candidate to the end that much I know for sure.

Anonymous said...

The only people more out of touch with the average CT Republican than Alan Schlesinger are the folks over at GOP State Central. Nothing like supporting a losing ticket...

win said...

McKinney has good name recognition, can raise a lot of money, would attract national (i.e. Senate Republican support), has a substantial amount of personal wealth he can draw on, is unopposed in his present re-election bid, would sell well to the Republican base, and has enough socially liberal position to position himself in the center. He is the best choice.

Anonymous said...

First of all, Burnham cannot finance a race, that's why he's going back into the private sector soon, to make some money. Stockman has way too much baggage with his business legal problems, although a brilliant man.

Anonymous said...

I do agree that alan is going nowhere. He's a tough guy.

ctpol said...

These are flights of fancy to speculate on something that won't happen. It is too late for anyone of substance to enter the race. It has been known for quite some time that the possibility of a 3 way race existed, so anyone with half a brain and politival ambitions would have made themselves available by now.

The names mentioned within -Klarides, Urban, Sawyer, Groark, etc. would only drive any clear-thinking Republican straight to Lieberman. All of these women (and a few men mentioned) are far more liberal and less reliable a vote on issues that matter than Joe. Sam Caligiuri would be a good choice in about 6 years. Other than that, the only true Republican in CT is Lou DeLuca. Look at his voting record and those of others in the CT GOP to understand what a true Republican.

For those who reference Groark, Urban, etc., I receommend you revise the "A Connecticut Party."

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know the deadline in Connecticut for the Republicans to switch candidates?

Anonymous said...

does anyone know the cut-off date for nonimation of a substitute candidate by Connecticut Republicans?