The poll showed that 38 percent of the respondents supported Murphy, 35 percent supported Johnson while 28 percent are undecided. (Lucas)
I would very much like to see some independent polling on this race.
Source
Lucas, Fred. "Poll: Challenger has slight lead over Nancy Johnson." Danbury News-Times 18 July, 2006.
25 comments:
For purposes of balance, we took a poll of Johnson financial supporters and would you believe it?
100% of them chose Nancy over Murphy.
Similar bias in both polls.
For purposes of balance, we took a poll of Johnson financial supporters and would you believe it?
100% of them chose Nancy over Murphy.
Similar bias in both polls.
Well, I don't see a reason to question the legitimacy of this poll, but it's still really meaningless. I doubt too many people in the 5th are following the election.
It's going to be close, but until the candidates start advertising (probably in the last couple of weeks of the election) there ain't no way we can accurately gauge public sentiment with a simple poll like this.
The day I win the powerball is the day this blog would post a poll by the GOP or some other right-leaning organization stating a Republican candidate was beating a 12 term Democrat incumbent.
If the Republicans have a poll they'd like to share, we'll post it.
Sounds like Working Families got stiffed on their poll. If you're gonna pay for a biased poll, you should be ahead by at least 10 points!
I'll listen to what CQ has to say before any poll commissioned by a political party on behalf of its own candidate.
Anonymous: Advertising in the district is well under way!
And, Congress Daily may not think it's one of the 25 most competitive races, but it is without question a competitive race.
I would like to see independent polling on ANY of the races.
I believe that Murphy bought a house in Cheshire a year or so ago, no? I know that his Senate District Address is in Cheshire. Wouldn't that make it his hometown?
Chris Murphy should embrace the Working Families Party endorsement and shun the Dem endorsement- God knows he has found his home with WFP- they are radical union supporting left wing crackpots just like Murphy!
Well, if the April lib poll showed Murphy with a 10 point lead, and the July lib poll shows him within the margin of error, then I would conclude that things are trending in Nancy's favor.
BTW--no offense to the unions, but good luck if you think Chris Murhpy will out-organize Dave Boomer.
Mukrphy shows his true colors- he's as left as they come and the worst kind- a limousine liberal- he grows up a privileged kid in West Hartford, goes to Williams, and becomes a lawyer- a real connection to the working families Chris!
MightyMouse1 said... "...
Cheshire is referred to as his 'hometown'. Since when?"
Since he stiffed another of his own supporters by purchasing a house in Cheshire (he was never once spotted at his former Darling St Southington address) from a real estate agent other than the Southington Democratic Town Committee Chair.
A real loyal guy that Murphy.
Wow. What's with the anger about Murphy?
I don't think it is anger- more just trying to get to the truth of who Chris is. There seems to be no clear answer- He says what he thinks we want to hear.
Genghis Conn said... "
Wow. What's with the anger about Murphy?
He's a snake.
No one I know in the game (on the field, not in the stands) isn't somewhat "bilingual".
Like Bruce and others on the field, I have respect for the players on the other team and in fact some are fairly close personal friends.
There is a certain ethic to the game and the only savings grace to it that I've ever seen is that Politics is warm blooded - or should be when played correctly.
ie: When Clinton dispite some criticism appointed former DNC Chair Ron Brown as Commerce Sect. I was impressed. For Bill Clinton that was the right thing to do.
Murphy on the other hand uses people and discards them.
He spoke to several area medical groups and promised one thing and then voted the opposite. After cashing the good doctors checks of course.
As state rep (81st district entirely w/in Southington) he spoke to the Town Council and inquired if they would support his anti-smoking proposal.
The Council said "no".
He did it anyway.
Get a load of my avatar - I can't stand the guy.
It seems that more than one person has lost their ming around here!
First off: a three fingered monkey could out organize Dave Boomer! For example, as set forth before, I give you the Nielsen race. Now I will acknowledge that Nielsen was an absolute moron, anyone who thought they were winning a congressional election solely by knocking doors, needs to have some serious head work done.
Second: Murphy has been in Danbury a dozen times in the last three or four months - not to mention the last two years. Don't know about any where else in the District but he's certainly been here a lot.
Third: what's his hometown? that's a debating point? Since when was it wrong to move from one part of one's district to another part of the district? If I live there is kind of like home right? Moreover, if you are Southington Democrat - you have a Democratic Rep in Congress - pipe down and give us a hand sending Nancy and the drug companies home in a bag - so that we have one too!
Fourth: Murphy endorese Lamont? Have you lost your minds? Other than George Jepsen who must have momentarily lost his, name one significant state wide Democratic official or candidate who has endorsed Ned? (and by statewide I do not mean state representative candidates who either cannot win or who will easily sail to victor - nor do I mean any first selectman of anywhere) He's come out and indicated he would support the winner of the primary - do not be greedy!
Fifth: polling - the poll is worth what its worth - and this early the margin etc. is probably not that significant - what is, however, important to note is this: even if it is a WFP poll Nancy should be leading by a million - she's not - she's in trouble - and she knows it: otherwise she doesn't run ads in April and May before Murphy was even nominated!
Come on you guys you are surprised that the guy who has been endorsed by the hard left Working Families and then endorses the hard RIGHT Joe Leiberman would have a problem with using unsavory tatics like not answering his blog because the question posed may make him look bad?
Some of you need to do your homework about Chris Murphy before you start making accusations ... 1.) he did not grow up in West Hartford, he actually grew up in Wethersfield a very middle class town ... no limo's 2.) he did go to Williams College, as did other members of his family ... I'm sure there are a couple of people on this blog that went to a college because it was in the family 3.) he moved to southington, got involved at the local level and worked his way up the political ladder ... he didn't just pull Southington out of a hat and say "hey this looks like a place I could win", if that were the case he would have moved to southington and immediately run for state rep. instead of going from the bottom of local government and moving up step by step ... all of this negative attitude is what gives politics such a bad reputation.
a call to arms for all Planners & Zoners!... anon... are you saying that P&Z people are the "bottom of local gov't?"
all kidding aside... I thought Murphy was elected to P&Z in Nov '97 and elected State Rep in Nov '98. If so, it seems a bit disingenuous to suggest he hadn't thought his actions through, well ahead of time.
I'm not saying that's bad, but let's be fair about any analysis here.
More details of the Working Families poll can now be found on the Connecticut Working Families website at ct-workingfamilies.org. Notes on methodology are included.
What is most interesting, and not mentioned in the Lucas article, is what the polling suggests about Working Families.
Overall favorability of the WFP was highest among registered unaffiliated voters. Furthermore, the poll suggests that the WFP attracts swing voters and some Republicans to vote for Murphy.
The WFP plans a significant independent campaign in the district, which could well attract additional swing voters to Murphy. We don't need a poll to tell us that there are some Republicans and Unafiliateds who aren't thrilled with the Republican administration in Washington. This poll suggests that the WFP could be an important vehicle in attracting those voters -- who might not be thrilled with the Democrats either, to be fair.
There is some historical precedent here. A little know fact of Connecticut politics is that the last Congressional candidate to be cross-endorsed by a minor party was Rob Simmons in 2000. In that election Simmons got 110,000 votes as a Republican and Gejedenson got 111,000 votes as a Democrat. So Gejdenson won, right? Wrong, because Simmons was also on the Independence Party line that year and he received another 4,000 votes from them, giving him the margin of victory.
MikeCT I couldn't agree with you more. Looks likes Nancy's people are out in full force today! I find it so funny how Republicans dismiss bloggers as "left-wing wackos" but as soon theres a post of a poll that shows them down, they send out a call to arms. Just find it interesting how a supposedly unreliable poll got them all riled up. Hmm maybe they have some real poll numbers that are showing the exact same thing. Get used to the attacks...Republicans have nothing else to run on given the current state of affiars. Fortunately, Nancy has an extensive and incompetent 24 year record that she can't run from. The next few months should be fun!
P.S. Attention all Nedheads: I am a Ned Lamont supporter myself and can't wait for him to beat Lieberman. That being said, we can't have a civil war and split the entire Democratic Party...Chris Murphy and all the other Congressional candidates have said that they will support the Democratic nominee (Ned has said this himself!). That is all we can ask of them. So lay off Chris, Dianne, and Joe Courtney...we're supposed to be on the same team, not enemies. Just wait till August 8 and once we defeat Joe all of the Dems will be able to unite around Lamont.
details on the poll can be found on www.ct-workingfamilies.org by clicking the photo of Murphy then clikcing the link to see the poll at the bottom of the page.
Brassboy--
J. P. Vance got spanked by Murphy in the primary--- why would he run as a petitioning democrat? To split the party???
Real democrats should unite around the primary winner and work hard to take back Congress. We're talking about a Congress that will make huge decisions that will have a huge impact on our country and its citizens.
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