We're heading into the home stretch for the primary. Bill Clinton's in Waterbury today, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) will be touring Connecticut with Joe Lieberman beforehand. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is also in the state campaigning for Ned Lamont, and former Clinton appointee Carl Feen is endorsing the challenger. Expect the national media to descend in force starting today, and continuing through August 8th.
All of which means that it's a great time for a predictions thread! Who's going to win in the U.S. Senate (D), gubernatorial (D) and 1st Congressional District (R) primary? By how much?
Feel free to offer guesses about turnout, too. We'll do this again next week to see if perceptions are changing.
15 comments:
Lamont wins 55-45, and Lieberman bows out.
DeStephano wins 57-43.
Turnout is 25-30%.
I'm not sure Clinton and Boxer (and others) help Lieberman all that much. People voting for Lamont don't really seem to care what party leaders think.
Predictions... The 1st one may or may not of made it so I am doing it again so if it appears twice I apologize
US Senate
Lieberman 51%
Lamont 49%
I still support Joe But depending on this week I could see these numbers flip around to Ned.
Governor
DeStefano-58%
Malloy-42%
Unless DeStefano stumbles (I cant see it happening)My choice Malloy needs a big play to pull this off.
Voter Turnout 34%
It's fun to predict these things, though.
Bruce... I would like to hear your numbers on both races.
GC... I think we all should write down these predictions from today,I am sure you will do another a week before and compare to what happens on Primary Day it would be interesting to see who actually gets it right.
Turnout is 10-15%....you guys are all too close to it. Most people don't even know what daythe primary is happening.
Lamont wins with 56% of the vote.
DeStefano wins with 54% of the vote.
"Far-left liberals" and "Negative Ned"? That's quite a rant. I wonder what makes us liberals Far left. And negative in comparison to a "positive" Lieberman? As reflected in the daily accusations issued by the Lieberman campaign?
an I the only person who sees the irony of Israel fighting for its existence and Ned Lamont inviting one of the biggest opponents of Israel in Congress,Maxine Waters, to campaign for him?
I'm sure lots of Jewish people will vote for Lamont. When the headlines are all over Al-Jazeera about the "jewish lobby" being humbled maybe they'll spit up breakfast
By the way, was the Round Hill Club subject to any "gentlemen's agreement"? Lots of the old line WASP clubs in Greenwich were, and may still be doing it.
Lamont event: I am so disappointed by how rude the Lamont staff was to me a few newbies. I expectecd people to be frienly and nice and welcoming etc. But no, because I didn't support John DeStefano, and I'm with Dan Malloy, people were flat out rude. Tonight's event solidified my support to Stick with Joe. You should have tried to be more inclusive. There are still SOOOOO many people, like me, who are undecided. None of the candidates have this locked up and field staff should NEVER forget that.
This is a tough one to predict since so few people actually vote in a primary in AUGUST.
I say:
Lamont pulls in out with a small minority of the vote but Joe will win in November.
Malloy beats DeStefano by 10% or so... Those Malloy staffers WORK! Everywhere I go, they are there working the crowd. It's quite impressive.
To the whiny Malloy supporter who said the staff was rude: I am not staff but I was at the event in Waterbury for Ned. It was a very good atmosphere. I witnessed this so called rude treatment i nthe same room--it was far from it. A bunch of college kids for Malloy felt like they could just walk into a private function for a totally unrelated campaign with their T-shirts and stickers and pass out flyers! Have some respect!! They weren't even invited. I repeat--people paid to attend a private event. And if they asked any campaign staff with any experience they would have been told how lame their actions were. Both the Senate campaigns and the governor campaigns are not endorsing in the other races. And staffers for Lamont very cordially informed them that they were welcome, and didn't have to pay like everyone else, (because they were all college teenagers) but under no circumstances could they pass out flyers. Talk about rude. Rookies!!! Get a clue!!
You are confused. This wasn't a "private function". Look at Ned's webpage where is tells of a Meet and Greet with a suggested donation.
These "college kids" are local Hartford area Lamont volunteers and wanted to attend what was advertised as not a private event with invite only but a "Meet and Greet" and they wanted to grab a litle bite and "Meet and Greet" Mr. Lamont as the Lamont website advertised. They weren't interested in going to the Lieberman event but support Ned so they thought they would stop by... They had a Malloy sticker on. They support Dan Malloy for Governor and Ned Lamont for US Senate. Wow! If people support anybody other than Mr. Lamont, they aren't allowed into a Meet and Greet? Really? I can't believe the Lamont campaign staff and volunteers support that theory. These "college kids" who vote, by the way, support Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy. They aren't competitors. We all need each other. People are voting the line here in this election. These "college kids" carry around materials about Dan all the time as I'm sure Lamont people do (not to mention anybody that volunteers on a campaign)). They always have flyers on them. They are interested in politics. They weren't there to "pass out flyers" but to see what the campaign was all about. You should really be more welcoming. One of these "college kids" parents are MAXED OUT DONORS and huge supporters. Talk about getting a clue! A quick, "Thanks for coming" would have been more than appropriate.
You shouldn't be so quick to judge. It's these "college kids" who help Ned, too.
Also... you are a great storyteller. Those Malloy kids were dressed in plain clothes. No tee-shirts supporting any candidate. Nice visual, though. Makes the story much more entertaining. Lamont staff must have more important issues to deal with that a few college volunteers who actually volunteer for Ned, right?
Ah, what?
I was at the Lamont event also and I wonder if Jo from the Malloy campaign knows that you're spreading lies on a blog.
Oh yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out who you are since I (and two other video bloggers) videotaped the entire event and panned the audience at least three times. I should have no problem picking out the Malloy people since most of them had Malloy stickers on their shirts.
As for Lamont or his campaign being "rude", that is a complete lie as I was everyone (including those with Malloy stickers on) having a great time.
As for the Malloy people passing out Malloy material, I didn't see that since I was busy reporting on the event BUT if that did happen, it was VERY uncool and whoever did that should be kicked off the Malloy campaign pronto.
The Lamont people deserve everything they are getting They started the nastyness in this Campaign It all started with dumpjoe.com and followed by DFA so they shouldnt criticize Lieberman or Malloy supporters Because Lamont Supporters have been so opinionated and mean spirited like the trolls they are.
Countdown to the end of DFA...13 days
Countdown to Ned Lamont's return to Private Citizen....13 days
Vote for the REAL DEMOCRATS VOTE LINE A.....MALLOY, GLASSMAN AND LIEBERMAN
LINE B..... DESTEFANO,SLIFKA AND LAMONT....The Line for DISASTER AND LIBERALS
Post a Comment