16. (If registered democrat) If the 2006 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano and Dan Malloy, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q16) As of today, do you lean more toward DeStefano or Malloy?This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (June 8th)
DeStefano 52% (46%)
Malloy 32% (35%)
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2% (1%)
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) -
DK/NA 14% (18%)
This is a jump from the last poll, taken in June. It could suggest that DeStefano's television commercials are having an effect, which is what the DeStefano campaign believes:
“It’s clear John’s message of fighting for working families is resonating with voters,” said Derek Slap – Communications Director. (DeStefano)
I suspect that these numbers are still based mostly on name recognition rather than actual preference. Here's why:
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (Total; JD voters; DM voters)
Made up 48% ; 47% ; 48%
Might change 51% ; 51% ; 50%
Compare this to Lamont/Lieberman voters:
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
LIKELY DEM PRIMARY VOTERS (Total ; JL voters ; NL voters)
Made up 79% ; 77% ; 80%
Might change 19% ; 21% ; 18
So this is by no means definitive. The Malloy campaign believes that a television blitz will help get their candidate's name out there:
We believe that a significant percentage of true primary voters are just starting to focus on this primary race, which is why we are just now ramping up a very intense and highly focused final phase of our paid communications plan (TV, mail, etc.). Conversely, our opponent chose to go very heavy on TV very early. (Malloy)
Could be. Or it could also be that DeStefano's greater name recognition and labor support will carry him to the nomination in August.
Source
Quinnipiac Poll 20 July, 2006.
"DeStefano widens lead in latest Q-Poll." DeStefano for Connecticut. Press Release. 20 July, 2006.
"Malloy Campaign Responds to Q-Poll." Malloy for Governor. Press Release. 20 July, 2006.
9 comments:
It seems like JDS has made up quite a bit as he goes along. Look at his transportation policy, which consists primarily of a wish list without any notion about how it's all going to be paid for.
The poll numbers, in my humble opinion, probably don't reflect a labor effect. I think they are directly related to the name recognition The Destefano camp has been building- particularly through TV. John has run TV everywhere and it has done wonders for his name recognition.
GOTV- now that will depend on labor showing up.
Stick a fork in Malloy...
I would think down 20 points with less then 3 weeks to go, Malloy doesn't have much of a chance to win this. Although he was retarded to the 4th grade, so I guess he's good at overcoming things. Let's just hope Malloy doesn't go negative. It would be a shame for him to bring the level of discourse down(like the campaign finance bit in the debate) and hurt the Dems chances in the general against Rell. I'll be watching my mailbox on that one...
Stick a fork in Roy O....he's dun!
His sitting U.S. Senator client is about to be thrown out by his own party.
His client for Governor is 20 points behind with two weeks left.
So much for Roy O being untouchable in primary races.
Bad day...bad poll...for Roy O.
How EXACTLY was the campaign finance reform thing "bringing the level of discourse down?". It was a totally valid point, and even if you don't think it was, it definitely wasn't going to any level DeStefano wasn't already at. I've seen DeStefano quote Malloy on things he has done and said: were you so steadfastly opposed to that as well?
Re: "cutting the retarded crap"
No one's calling Malloy a retard, except Malloy himself. And it seems very relevant to me to discuss the political ramifications of announcing to the public that he was considered a "retard" up through 4th grade. I for one think that politically, it was a pretty bad idea (regardless of our progressive nature as a state).
GC,
Why would you leave up (or permit) these comments about Roy; your own "civility" postings have offered that campaign/political staff are not game.
Ease up kiddo
Anon 1:10
I said the Campaign Finance talk by Malloy brought the level of political discourse down for a few reasons.
For one, it's obvious DeStefano is a supporter of campaign finance, he's said it many times. Two, Malloy lied when he said this race would of been financed publically if DeStefano had so declared, it never would of been and because of this it was a moot point. Third, Malloy forget to mention that at the time he made that pledge he was in the process of getting indicted and wasn't raising any money, quite convenient I may add.
It's likely that Malloy will go negative at this point with the mailings, he doesn't really have any other way to catch up. I've already seen his job mailing claiming he created 5000 jobs which turned out to be a lie, according to the newspapers of CT and official job data. Let's hope that's the last piece of mail like that I get.
Dems have to realize DeStefano will get crushed in a debate. All Rell has to say to him in a debate he has been mayor since 1994 and crime in New Haven is out of control and what has he done? Nothing! Come on Dems you
know about Malloy"s success in Stamford so get on board with him. You know we will easily go down in flames with DeStefano. Get real! Get real! Malloy is your man. He is tough and will take on Rell. DeStefano was very weak in that debate. Malloy speks consisely which
reflects clear thinking.
John Fahan
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