Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Reuters: Farrell, Simmons Lead

A new Reuters poll released today shows Diane Farrell with a 5-point lead over Chris Shays (46%-41%), and Rob Simmons leading Joe Courtney by three (44%-41%). It's definitely worth noting that no candidate has broken 50%--these really could go either way right now.

No poll for the Murphy-Johnson race, unfortunately.

Source
Whitesides, John. "Results in key House races: Reuters poll." Reuters 4 October, 2006.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting on the heels of the Advocate poll. This has nothing on methodology, sample size, MOE or even whether it's registered v. likely voters. I wish these media outlets would put this stuff in context.

Genghis Conn said...

The series of telephone polls were conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, and included at least 500 interviews in each of the 15 congressional districts tested. Each district poll carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to exclusion of responses of "Other."

From here.

disgruntled_republican said...

Can't wait to see how Courtney and his supporters plan on discrediting this good news for Rob. No plan Joe has got to be flippin mad!

turfgrrl said...

I'm disappointed to see that it's Zogby again.

Gabe said...

At least its on the phone this time...

Gabe said...

D_R - I imagine that they might take solace in the fact that a challenger is within the MoE of an incumbant a month out, the incumbant is under 45%, and the House Republican leadership is crumbling before our very eyes.

If I had to guess.

Gabe said...

Anon above, the information you requested, besides being at GC's link, is also in the second paragraph of the orginal story linked...

Anonymous said...

sorry Gabe,

considering the 2nd CD is the least GOP district in country and with 11 of the 15 races Reuters polled going Dem, this poll is only good news for Simmons

Genghis Conn said...

It certainly isn't bad news for Simmons, especially considering national trends.

disgruntled_republican said...

But Gabe, don't you remember - this is the most Democrat district in the country held by a republican.

Was thinking it might have sounded a bit like this:
We have a right to this seat - the fact that we trail in this poll is a total outrage! What are these people thinking - Chris Dodd held this seat for crying out loud! They just don;t get it - I am the man to go do whatever Nancy Pelosi says. Thats what we need you know. Someone with no ideas that pushes the national Democrat agenda of no ideas... how do we get this message to resonate? THAT"S it...longer stronger TV ads calling Rob Simmons George Bush's best friend, his number one supporter and we will take total credit for anything Rob has done - after all, like I said, I haven't any ides of my own!

Anonymous said...

No poll on the Johnson Murphy race because it isn't considered close anymore from what I have heard. The DCCC is still doing some exposure items but they have called off the full court press on this one. How's it go? He who fights then runs away lives to fight another day - aka, see ya next time Nancy.

Genghis Conn said...

I can tell you that that simply isn't so, anonymous. Still a close race in the 5th.

Genghis Conn said...

Check this News-Times story for more.

Gabe said...

Hey, you asked the question...

disgruntled_republican said...

Gabe -

LOL, it was a rhetorical question. Meaning queue the Courtney supporters and spinsters who have no faith in any poll that shows their guy losing.

Anonymous said...

There can be no greater sign of the desperate times for the GOP than the high-fiving amongst them as two of their multi-term incumbents are fighting for their political lives.

"Allright! We're up less than 5%! And we're well under 50%! SCORE!"

hartford_for_lamont said...

No poll on the Johnson Murphy race because it isn't considered close anymore from what I have heard.

whether that was ever true or not, FoleyGate and HastertGate changes everything now -

I envision many Waterbury blue-collar Catholics who would have likely voted for Johnson and Lieberman to now just stay home on election day in apathy & disgust because of FoleyGate and HastertGate.

If hastert stays on he hurts the repubs nationally, and if hastert resigns he hurts the repubs nationally.

delicious!

Anonymous said...

anon 10:53 - perhaps you should do your homework. murphy has a poll that has him tied with johnson - story in the rep am (that i can't find on the online version) yesterday i think. this race is murphy's to lose at this point.

BrassBoy said...

I can assure you that Waterbury, blue-collar Catholics will not be sitting this one out. The energy is always high in Waterbury this time of year and with so many important races I doubt this year will be any different.

Most of Waterbury does not care about Mark Foley and Dennis Hastert. They care more about their old friend Senator Joe, (new) favorite son Sam Caligiuri and Nancy vs. Chris. We'll be at the polls come Nov. 7th.

Lastly, as a Waterbury resident and a Catholic, I care more about the anti-Catholic comments Chris Murphy allegedly made during a Senate hearing earlier this year (maybe last year) than I do about some Florida congressman.

BrassBoy said...

anon 11:23 - Johnson has a poll showing a big lead, Murphy has a poll showing him tied.

The moral of the story?

Until a credible, non-partisal poll shows a Murphy lead outside the margin of error, it is the incumbent's race to lose.

Anonymous said...

Brass Boy - even the dead won't be sitting this one out in Waterbury!

Fenix said...

http://www.newstimeslive.com/news/story.php?id=1016744

there;s the story from the News-Times about the polls. In the first story about the NRCC poll Johnson up by 10 the Johnson campaign wouldn't say whether or not their poll results were after persuasion or not, which clearly means that it was, so you DEFINITELY cannot trust that poll's results. No one knows who is gonna win this race, and both parties are taking this race very seriously, just ask the NRCC why the took over the campaign from Boomer, or whatever his name is. If this is Nnancy's race why has the NRCC pumped so many staffers into her campaign? Because her campaign is going SO WELL she needs all the national party support she can get? I don't buy it. It's a toss up, we'll figure it out come election day.

Anonymous said...

whether the 5th is close or not i don't know, and i certainly wouldn't presume to soothsay the outcome. that the dccc is pulling out is sadly fact, however.it doesn't mean it's a lost cause, of course, but rather that dccc feels the money could be more effectively spent elsewhere. still one must admit, the rncc is in, so it doesn't bode well for mr. murphy

reversal in numbers in the 4th since the uconn poll confuses me a little. personally, i read the uconn poll as good news for farrell, but this result seems too good to be true. any thoughts on which poll will prove more reliable on the gold coast?

as for the 2nd, i don't know what this means either. initially, my reaction would be the same as it was to the uconn poll for farrell. 3 points is within the margin, and polling under 45 for an incumbent spells trouble. the farrell numbers make me wonder if the poll skews left, however, and if it does i'm much less confident.

bluecoat said...

the national Republicans are running an anti-Farrell TV ad that i saw earlier that calls her a big spender from Westport - evrything went up there like it has along the entire Gold Coast but most folks know it was not Farrell's single handed doing but it's a good try by campaign that knows nothing about the 4th; I'll be surprised if Shays doesn't call for an end to the ad becasue it's hard to beleive he'll find it useful to his cause.

Gabe said...

Re: the poll possibly skewing left - it looks to me like it may just be all over the place - The idaho numbers are 15-20 points to the right of other recent polls in the district. This is a curious collection of polls.

Blue Turned Red said...

How pathetic is the modern day Democratic party when their only chance at winning is when the Republicans are plagued by scandal. Will they ever be able to win on their own merits or only when their opponents get caught trying to molest teenage boys?

Fenix said...

Blue Turn Red is absolutely right. The Democrats just aren't smart enough to run blatantly deceptive campaign ads, and don't posssess the courage to scare the electorate into thinking every Democrat is going to raise taxes to crippling levels while allowing terrorists to mass murder Americans? Is fear and lies the sign of a good party sir? Would we Democrats be better people if we ran constant vicious attack ads based on a shred of truth? Would dumbing down the electoral process make us better men? We aren't relying on any sort of scandel. If anything this Foley business just further exposes the GOP leadership for what they really are. Historically, it's next to impossible for a president to lose ground during war time or while granting huge tax cuts to the wealthy, but Bush has managed to do it. So my question is, how sad is it that the GOP can't assure it's own victory despite trying to scare everyone with the war and taxes?

Anonymous said...

BrassBoy -

Care to elaborate the "alleged anti-catholic" comments you reference? Just curious what was said, or thought to be said.

Thanks

zepp714 said...

No Murphy poll?! Are you folks paying attention? Murphy JUST put out a poll showing him dead even with Johnson. And on what authority is this random guy saying the DCCC is dropping Murphy's race? Um, hardly! Pelosi was here a week ago! Funny way to demonstrate her lack of interest in the race. If anything, they're probably pledging more time and energy to the race, with Johnson looking all weak 'n' waffly on the Foley issue now.

Murphy's in the home stretch with loads of momentum. He's making what looks like the most progress out of the 3 CT Dem House candidates.

Anonymous said...

DCCC just dumped 300k into murphy's race - the other guy is an idiot.