A new Reuters poll released today shows Diane Farrell with a 5-point lead over Chris Shays (46%-41%), and Rob Simmons leading Joe Courtney by three (44%-41%). It's definitely worth noting that no candidate has broken 50%--these really could go either way right now.
No poll for the Murphy-Johnson race, unfortunately.
Source
Whitesides, John. "Results in key House races: Reuters poll." Reuters 4 October, 2006.
18 comments:
Interesting on the heels of the Advocate poll. This has nothing on methodology, sample size, MOE or even whether it's registered v. likely voters. I wish these media outlets would put this stuff in context.
The series of telephone polls were conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, and included at least 500 interviews in each of the 15 congressional districts tested. Each district poll carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to exclusion of responses of "Other."
From here.
At least its on the phone this time...
D_R - I imagine that they might take solace in the fact that a challenger is within the MoE of an incumbant a month out, the incumbant is under 45%, and the House Republican leadership is crumbling before our very eyes.
If I had to guess.
Anon above, the information you requested, besides being at GC's link, is also in the second paragraph of the orginal story linked...
sorry Gabe,
considering the 2nd CD is the least GOP district in country and with 11 of the 15 races Reuters polled going Dem, this poll is only good news for Simmons
It certainly isn't bad news for Simmons, especially considering national trends.
No poll on the Johnson Murphy race because it isn't considered close anymore from what I have heard. The DCCC is still doing some exposure items but they have called off the full court press on this one. How's it go? He who fights then runs away lives to fight another day - aka, see ya next time Nancy.
I can tell you that that simply isn't so, anonymous. Still a close race in the 5th.
Check this News-Times story for more.
Hey, you asked the question...
There can be no greater sign of the desperate times for the GOP than the high-fiving amongst them as two of their multi-term incumbents are fighting for their political lives.
"Allright! We're up less than 5%! And we're well under 50%! SCORE!"
anon 10:53 - perhaps you should do your homework. murphy has a poll that has him tied with johnson - story in the rep am (that i can't find on the online version) yesterday i think. this race is murphy's to lose at this point.
Brass Boy - even the dead won't be sitting this one out in Waterbury!
whether the 5th is close or not i don't know, and i certainly wouldn't presume to soothsay the outcome. that the dccc is pulling out is sadly fact, however.it doesn't mean it's a lost cause, of course, but rather that dccc feels the money could be more effectively spent elsewhere. still one must admit, the rncc is in, so it doesn't bode well for mr. murphy
reversal in numbers in the 4th since the uconn poll confuses me a little. personally, i read the uconn poll as good news for farrell, but this result seems too good to be true. any thoughts on which poll will prove more reliable on the gold coast?
as for the 2nd, i don't know what this means either. initially, my reaction would be the same as it was to the uconn poll for farrell. 3 points is within the margin, and polling under 45 for an incumbent spells trouble. the farrell numbers make me wonder if the poll skews left, however, and if it does i'm much less confident.
Re: the poll possibly skewing left - it looks to me like it may just be all over the place - The idaho numbers are 15-20 points to the right of other recent polls in the district. This is a curious collection of polls.
BrassBoy -
Care to elaborate the "alleged anti-catholic" comments you reference? Just curious what was said, or thought to be said.
Thanks
DCCC just dumped 300k into murphy's race - the other guy is an idiot.
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