The NRCC poll contradicts a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee internal poll released last week showing Courtney holding a four point lead, 46-42. ("National")
For such a high-profile race, there has been very little independent polling. The Courant/UCONN poll had Simmons up by 2% on October 20th, but that's really it for recent independent polls.
Bottom line: too close to call.
"National Republican Congressional Committee poll shows Simmons ahead in 2nd Congressional District." Norwich Bulletin 30 October, 2006.