Monday, October 30, 2006

The Day of Many Polls Continues

And it isn't over yet!

MajorityWatch
2nd CD
Courtney.....51%
Simmons....45%

4th CD
Farrell.......43%
Shays........52%

5th CD
Murphy.....51%
Johnson....43%

The Day (5th CD)
Murphy.....46%
Johnson....43%

So basically: who knows?

23 comments:

MikeCT said...

Three polls showing Murphy ahead in one day! That's amazing.
51% - 43%
46% - 43%
46% - 42%

This is one we can win.

Anonymous said...

Any guesses as to when the next Q poll comes out? They caught some heat for releasing the day before the primary, so it will be interesting to see if they come out with something this week rather than Monday next.

Anonymous said...

What all these polls show is that polling is really just propaganda with no science involved.

They've all covered their asses and are basically within there MOE so on election day they san all tell you how right they were.

The Q-poll will have the Senate race within a point of it's MOE on it's final poll.

People who pay for or attention to polls are being played.

MikeCT said...

The crosstabs in the Majority Watch report also indicate that Murphy leads among independents - 48% strong or leaning for Murphy vs. 43% for Johnson. (In the UCONN poll, independents went for Murphy 45% to 36%.)

Courtney & Simmons among independents
49% Courtney vs. 45% Simmons

Farrell & Shays
50% Shays vs. 41% Farrell

(not sure if margin of error is greater than 3.1% for subgroups)

Farrell poll may be an outlier and is hard to reconcile with earlier tie poll and the J-I/Day poll putting her ahead 47% to 43%.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

MikeCT said...
This is one we can win.


If he wins, all of Connecticut loses.

Anonymous said...

ACR,

Why keep a very old hack who'll be a member of the minority party.

Nancy Johnson will be worse than useless after Nov. 7th and if she were to win she would imediately announce she was not seeking reelection in 08 anyway.

Blue Loser said...

Shays up by 9 is as ridiculous as Chris up by 4. If Shays wins by nine, or Chris wins by four, I'll eat my hat.

Red Raider said...

Nancy Johnson or Nancy Pelosi? You decide. If Pelosi becomes speaker, the GOP will sell tickets to the Pelosi/Clinton Steel Cage Death Match. It will assure a McCain wins in 2008.

Tired of it all said...

Ghengis, you're right. Let's get to the goddamn voting booth already,

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

>>Why keep a very old hack who'll be a member of the minority party


You CLEARLY do not know Chris Murphy.

Anonymous said...

Q polls are propaganda beyond belief. The Lamont internals have this race under five points. The Rammasuen has this at 8 points with Schlesinger getting 9%. I'm predicting 43 Lamont, 42 Lieberman, 15 Schlesinger. The Lamont turnout will rock and sock Lieberman away!

Anonymous said...

some at the LOB do know chris - he lets others do the work and strolls in and does the PR. He'll pick an issue and get others cranked and let the lobbyists do the groundwork and again walk in and do the PR.

Anyone ever ask him to answer a Q with specifics... not sure he can - might be a lawyer not sure what or who hes ever represented ... empty shirt is how some at the LOB describe him as - another couple of terms at the state legislature where he actually does the work versus his staff (remember Lisa?) could make him a real contender for higher office.

Sorry very nice person - but top notch legislator think not.

Wolcottboy said...

From what I've seen driving around Litchfield County, I think Johnson is in trouble.

However, I predict a sizeable Johnson win in Waterbury and the 16th SD (Wolcott, Cheshire). That will prove the legislator Murphy is and the poor job he'll accommplish.

Jim said...

I worked on Chris' 2002 State Senate race, and spent time in the LOB in 2004 as an assistant clerk and I can tell you that Chris works much harder than you seem to give him credit for. When I was a high school student volunteering on his first race, Chris taught me an awful lot about politics and public service, and I have him to thank (or blame) for me getting into this business.

I guess that makes it clear that I'm hardly impartial on the topic, but we were lucky in Southington to have him as our State Senator and State Representative. Though we're not in the 5th CD, I guess I'll try not to be selfish and be happy for New Britain. They're close enough.

He's going to make one hell of a Congressman.

Anonymous said...

ACR--

Believe it or not, Murphy is most likely to win. First, he had a ton of cash in hand at the end of last quarter. Second, Johnson has dug herself a hole via her negative advertising, which, I expect, will blow up in her face come election day.

Shays is the next most vulnerable. And if any of the Republican Congress-critters hang on to their seats, it will be Simmons against a Joe Courtney who has needed testosterone shots.

FWIW.

Anonymous said...

You lamontistas just keep spinning like crazy. Why don't you deal in realityand read the polls instead of creating your own version of alternate reality.

Jon Green said...

To understand how Murphy has surged ahead of Johnson in the 5th you just need to look at the cross-tabs of the two Majority Watch polls (this one and the one from early October). The movement in the race is almost entirely among unaffiliated voters. Back on 10-10 Johnson was UP in a BIG WAY among independent voters.

38% Strong Johnson
21 % Weak Johnson
3% Undecided
6% Weak Murphy
32% Strong Murphy

Now those numbers are:

35% Strong Johnson
8 % Weak Johnson
9% Undecided
7 % Weak Murphy
41% Strong Murphy

Without tooting our horn too shamelessly, I think the Working Families campaign for Murphy is a part of this movement. We've been targeting unaffiliated voters with an agressive door to door, phonebank, and mail program and the unaffiliated voters we're talking to are clearly breaking Murphy's way.

Anonymous said...

The working families party has nothing to do with anything. It is a sham, at least the Green Party has some core values.

BrassBoy said...

Jim-

Maybe you in Southington are lucky to have Chris Murphy as your State Senator (though I think ACR would disagree)... but I have lived in the 16th my whole life and cannot remember a more absentee legislator. The minute he won a State Senate seat he was thinking about and then campaigning for higher office, without any regard for his constituents, especially in Waterbury. Do you think it is any suprise that 90% of the Waterbury Dems can't stand him?

Anonymous said...

For me the issue with Murphy is not how hard he works. But that at age 33 he is already a career politician. Also personally he has been a bit arrogant, sometimes very hard to get responses from, and totally avoided dealing with any issues he clearly agreed with me on during any conversations. For me he was a huge disappointment. I am sure for others he probably was not.

The person who knocked on my door to introduce himself to me was not the person I was lead to believe I was voting for. Does that make him any different than most politicians?? I guess probably not..... But then to me that is the bottom line he really is no different.

Anonymous said...

3 polls all showing Chris Murphy with the lead, must be true.

I live in the 16th district, and in Cheshire Chris is well regarded as a responsive legistator.

He's done a wonderful job state senator and he'll be a fantastic congressman.

Anonymous said...

Murphy a responsive legislator? Does he have a twin brother?

Anonymous said...

I live in the 16th district as well. More importantly that part which had Murphy all the last 8 years not just since he recently moved into the 5th district.

As I see it no matter who wins next week in the 16th we get an huge improvement. Given that one of the canidates is Zoni that makes this a very low bar for Murphy to fail to get under.