UConn's pollsters found that among likely voters, Murphy was leading Johnson by 46 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent of voters still undecided. Murphy's lead is just outside the poll's margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. The poll of 762 likely voters in the 5th Congressional District was conducted by UConn's Center for Survey Research and Analysis between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28, just after Johnson and Murphy completed their debates.
"These results paint a picture of a very vulnerable incumbent," said Monika McDermott, the UConn poll's research director. "Likely voters aren't happy with Johnson's performance, and they say they're ready for a change." (Buck)
Crucially, independent voters now prefer Murphy. The poll also shows that Johnson's negative ads may have hurt her own campaign worse than Murphy's.
Buck, Rinker. "Johnson Losing Her Hold?." Hartford Courant 30 October, 2006.