UConn's pollsters found that among likely voters, Murphy was leading Johnson by 46 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent of voters still undecided. Murphy's lead is just outside the poll's margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. The poll of 762 likely voters in the 5th Congressional District was conducted by UConn's Center for Survey Research and Analysis between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28, just after Johnson and Murphy completed their debates.
[...]
"These results paint a picture of a very vulnerable incumbent," said Monika McDermott, the UConn poll's research director. "Likely voters aren't happy with Johnson's performance, and they say they're ready for a change." (Buck)
Crucially, independent voters now prefer Murphy. The poll also shows that Johnson's negative ads may have hurt her own campaign worse than Murphy's.
Source
Buck, Rinker. "Johnson Losing Her Hold?." Hartford Courant 30 October, 2006.
29 comments:
Murphy's own internal polls say otherwise.
Johnson is at 42pts...She's a 24yr incumbent! This thing is over, there's no way she makes up that ground. She can't make up 4pts and pull enough of the 9pts of U's that are left.
Time to pay more attention on knocking Simmons out.
Not sure this thing is over for Johnson, since she will do anything it takes to win including distorting Murphy's voting record to beyond recognition. Still, when she almost lost to Koskoff groups were shifting their resources into Franks/Maloney's 5th CD contest because no one knew how close Koskoff was - I was one of them who went to the Valley for Maloney. Now, resources will flow to this race since people know it's in play. Murphy is the perfect Democratic candidate to defeat Johnson in this diverse district. His closing during his debate with Nancy on Face the State this Sunday was the best I've seen him. Acknowledging Johnson, but saying that her time is past. There are only two messages in politics - stay the course and it's time for a change. After 22years in office, I think the voters in the 5th (and old 6th in particular) may have reached that conclusion.
I think the majority of voters see through all of Nancy's attack ads and now they are coming back to haunt her.
I think the majority of voters see through all of Nancy's attack ads and now they are coming back to haunt her.
Contrast the two predominant ad themes right now and you can see why Murphy is winning.
Johnson - one negative attack ad after another based on fear (taxes, terrorism, drug dealers, etc.). Nancy Johnson appears on screen only to say that she approved the message. (Has she actually spoken outside of the approval in any ad this election?)
Murphy - his one big ad has been his face on camera, talking about the need to change Washington. He calls Johnson "not a bad person." Its a personal appeal, and I think it sticks out among the political ads.
Contrast the two predominant ad themes right now and you can see why Murphy is winning.
Johnson - one negative attack ad after another based on fear (taxes, terrorism, drug dealers, etc.). Nancy Johnson appears on screen only to say that she approved the message. (Has she actually spoken outside of the approval in any ad this election?)
Murphy - his one big ad has been his face on camera, talking about the need to change Washington. He calls Johnson "not a bad person." Its a personal appeal, and I think it sticks out among the political ads.
It's a Courant poll, for God's sake.
It's a UConn Poll that the Courant sponsors.
I found these results shocking, and so i don't entirely trust them, but they are encouraging nonetheless. I still believe Murphy is the Democratic Congressional challenger with the longest odds in CT, and if the 5th CD really is in play that's great news for Dems.
Perhaps Johnson's horrific murphy-knocking-on-doors ad really did backfire, as it most certainly should have.
The people of the 5th district should demand that that Nancy Johnson pull here attack ad depicting Chris Murphy hanging out with drug dealers. It is the ultimate in character assassination and is simply wrong. Vote her out Nov 7th and show that this sort of politics is not what the people of Connecticut want.
Murphy was interviewed today on WTIC.
Buh Bye Nancy!
At the beginning of the campaign, Johnson's biggest asset was her grandmotherly image. Her ad campaign has shot that asset all to hell.
No matter if this poll is accurate or not clearly Johnson has not run a great campaign against Murphy. There really is no excuse..... She has run across him before, and knew what to expect.
Her endless negative adds mean almost nothing against a candidate few people in the 5th district knew much about until a this campaign. She has been ineffective in forcing Murphy to defend his 8 year record in the General Assembly, and clearly define for those people who don't know him who he is.
The people of this state are the highest taxed people in the country. Does it really make sense to largely base your campaign on the fact your opponent has a history of raising taxes?? Obviously we in Connecticut don't care or we would have voted those guys out already.
Murphy's latest add with him talking one on one to the camera is great.... He comes across well, yet never once tells us anything about himself. What can Johnson say about that add? Don't believe it??? Don't believe what??? He didn't say anything!!!!!! It's brilliant!!!!
I just don't understand how the Johnson camp could run a campaign like this.
Johnson's latest ad was hilarious. All politicians (and us bloggers, too) take themselves way too seriously. Did the moveon.org ads backfire on the Smurph?
The guy who plays the drug dealer in the Johnson smear campaign and even the two ladies that hit Murphy do a nice job. The ad is funny and it works in Murphy's favor since all it does is enegize the old and tired nancy supporters.
The interesting thing about this poll is that it almost mirrors polling done recently by the DCCC, which is consistent with Murphy's internal polling.
The numbers have only gone in one direction the whole election cycle, and if I were Nancy I would not be happy.
Murphy's internal polls from a month ago showed him tied with Johnson at 42%/42%. He's pretty clearly moving ahead.
I'm still afraid of Rove. He is just toying with us. He has a plan. He knows who is going to vote, and where to get votes. Whether it's 700 votes in Palm Beach, or 50,000 in Ohio, he'll find the votes he needs in CT-5.
I'm still afraid of Rove. He is just toying with us. He has a plan. He knows who is going to vote, and where to get votes. Whether it's 700 votes in Palm Beach, or 50,000 in Ohio, he'll find the votes he needs in CT-5.
Virtually all races tighten up as an election approaches. So it's not unusual for Chris to start low and get better. Is he really 'ahead' now? Can he hold the 'lead?' We'll see ...
Rove is working with sure thing, Susan Bysiewicz, to bring honme the votes in CT the same way he worked with Katherine Harris in '02 in FL. It's one of the reasons you see Rell shunning SB's GOP challenger for SOTS Abbatte. Rove will continue to Help America VOTE REPUBLICAN.
Gov. Rell just endorsed NJ in both Waterbury and Danbury today. They both wore near-identical CT-blue suits. Nobody is voting against Rell. She will give a lift to NJ. New slogan: All grandmothers, all the time?
How can anybody vote against a grandmother? It's like voting against baseball and apple pie.
We were certain of winning in 2000. We lost. We were sure we'd win in 2004. We lost again. Until we ice the warlock Rove, we'll lose.
Chris Murphy is ahead of Nancy Johnson according to a second new poll 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. The poll was commissioned by The Day (New London) and the Manchester Journal-Inquirer, and was conducted Oct. 27 through Oct. 29 by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md. It surveyed 600 likely voters in the 5th District by telephone, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
http://www.theday.com/re_txt.aspx?re=1ab21934-33f0-4256-8f5c-7db93dcf7b5c OR
http://tinyurl.com/ttc37
Results from a third poll released today also have Chris Murphy ahead of Nancy Johnson—51% to 43%. The poll was conducted by Majority Watch of 994 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
Among strong supporters only, Murphy led with 44% to Johnson’s 37%. Murphy had 7% weak supporters compared to 6% for Johnson. There were 7% undecided voters.
http://www.majoritywatch.com/
Smurph went from up four to up eight in a day? Does he walk on water, too? Why not call the whole thing off and just annoit him. Way too much spin with these polls.
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