The latest edition of the Races to Watch list has something new: predictions. These are based on the candidates, on fundraising, and on the voting patterns of the district. They are probably going to turn out to be wrong.
In any event, it's looking like a few seats may change hands here and there, but there won't be a huge shift one way or the other.
Races to Watch: State Senate
Senate District 7 - East Granby,
This one, between incumbent Sen. Kissel (R) and former State Rep. Bill Kiner (D) is still tight, with lots of interest on both sides. Best chance for a Democratic pickup. Prediction: Leans (slightly) Democratic.
Senate District 8 - Avon, Barkhamsted, Canton, Colebrook, Granby (part), Hartland, Harwinton (part), New Hartford, Norfolk, Simsbury, Torrington (part)
Steve Berry (D) is giving Sen. Herlihy a run for his money, although this is still a very Republican area. Prediction: Leans Republican.
Senate District 16 -
Caliguiri (R) and Zoni (D) are both raising a ton of money. Best chance for a Republican pickup. Prediction: Toss-up.
Senate District 18 - Griswold,
Andy Maynard (D) and Lenny Winkler (R) are competing for an open seat vacated by Sen. Cathy Cook (R). Prediction: Leans Republican.
Senate District 20 - East Lyme,
Chris Oliviera (R) has raised a good amount of money in his campaign against Sen. Stillman (D). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
Senate District 21 - Monroe (part), Seymour (part), Shelton, Stratford (part)
Jones (D) and Debicella (R) are competing for outgoing Sen. "Doc" Gunther's (R) seat. Prediction: Leans Republican.
Senate District 22 -
Sen. Finch (D) faces a tough challenge from Robert Russo (R). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
Senate District 31 -
Beverly Bobroske (R) has raised a lot of money in her campaign against Sen. Tom Colapietro (D). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
Races to Watch: State House of Representatives
House District 2 -
This district saw one of the closest races of 2004. This year, Jason Bartlett (D) is running against Phillip Gallagher for an open seat. Could be a Democratic pick up. Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 30 -
Edward Pocock (R) is facing Rep. Joe Aresimowicz (D). Prediction: Toss up.
House District 37 - East Lyme,
Paul Formica (R) is doing well raising money against Rep. Jutila (D). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 38 -
Brian Vachris (R) is challenging Rep. Ritter (D), in what should be an aggressive campaign from both sides. Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 50 - Brooklyn, Eastford,
Rep. Alberts (R) won his seat in 2004 by only 48 votes (0.44%). He is facing Sherri Vogt (D). Prediction: Toss-up.
House District 59 -
In my home district, Rep. Steve Jarmoc's wife Karen Jarmoc (D) is running for his seat as he leaves the field. This is reportedly causing some grumbling, and may benefit challenger Charles Woods (R). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 61 - East Granby (part), Suffield,
Derek Donnelly (D) is running a very strong race against longtime incumbent Ruth Fahrbach (R). This race has seen some attention lately as Rell dipped into slush funds to help Fahrbach. Prediction: Toss-up.
House District 89 -
Tim White (R) has run an active campaign, and may do well against Rep. Nardello (D). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 104 -
J.R. Romano (R) is doing well raising funds against Rep. Linda Gentile (D). Prediction: Leans Democratic.
House District 120 -
Democrat Dave Mooney has raised a lot more money than his opponent Rep. John Harkins (R). One to watch. Prediction: Toss up.
House District 132 -
Chris DeSanctis (R) is challenging Rep. Drew (D), and both have raised significant amounts of money. Prediction: Leans Democratic.
Kim Fawcett (D) is running a spirited race against Rep. Cathy Tymniak (R). Prediction: Leans Republican.
House District 136 - Westport (part)
Businessman Bill Harris (R) is facing Rep. Joe Mioli (D), who won by a narrow margin in 2004. Prediction: Leans Democratic