Tuesday, October 03, 2006

UCONN/Advocate Poll: Shays Leads by 4%

16% Undecided

A new poll conducted by UCONN for the Stamford Advocate shows Rep. Chris Shays (R) leading challenger Diane Farrell 44%-40% with a large number of voters still unsure who they'll support:
Sixteen percent of likely voters polled in the 17 municipalities that comprise lower Fairfield County's 4th district said they remain undecided. In addition, 20 percent of Shays supporters and 15 percent of Farrell supporters said they may change their mind before Election Day on Nov. 7.

When those who lean toward a certain candidate are included, Shays leads Farrell by 5 percentage points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

The poll of 753 registered voters was conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. (Ginocchio)

The poll also measured President Bush's approval rating in the 4th District:
The results reveal that attempts by the former Westport first selectwoman to link Shays with the unpopular Republican President Bush have not been entirely successful. Shays' approval rating is a healthy 59 percent despite strong opposition among respondents to the war in Iraq, Bush and national policies.

Sixty-three percent of respondents disapprove of Bush; 67 percent believe the "country is on the wrong track;" and 55 percent said the Iraq war was the wrong decision. (Ginocchio)

Farrell has a month to work with, and 16% of the voters to reach. This poll suggests she won't do it by appealing to their dislike of either Iraq or the president.


Ginocchio, Mark. "16% undecided in 4th District race, poll finds." Stamford Advocate 3 October, 2006.


Anonymous said...

A great point was made on WNPR this morning. While the difference (4 points) is right where it was two years ago (and shays did go on to claim a 4-point victory in the 2004 election) the polls then had him around 48 or 49%. Polling at only 44% this close to an election is not a comfortable position for an incumbent.

Also, Genghis, I disagree slightly with your assessment that Farrell can't move the remaining undecideds on the Iraq War or on President Bush. While Shays approval ratings remain fairly high (surprisingly high given that only 44% of respondents are committed to voting for him) the President's numbers are, unsurprisingly, abyssmal. What this means is that Farrell's attempts to tie Shays to Bush aren't working (4th CD voters still see him as independent and like him for that independence), a pitch for change in general may still be effective. As we know, undecideds typically break for the challenger, and one can only imagine that this year that will be especially true. Farrell's best tack may be to cease trying to label Shays as a Bush yes-man (voters don't seem to be buying it) but, instead, to attack Bush and the Republican Congress directly. Forget about Shays entirely, as if she's not even running against him, and make this election a referendum on the President. Voters don't seem to want to vote against Shays, but I believe their strong desire to vote against Bush can trump that.

bluecoat said...

Sex Scandal Gets Into State Races
October 3, 2006
By ELIZABETH HAMILTON, Courant Staff Writer

bluecoat said...

the firsst televised deabte btween these two will be on WTNH tomorrow at 1:00 PM.

bluecoat said...

Kevin Sullivan is looks like he wil be retiring his LG Blog but his first topic relates to an earlier informational post by turffgrrl on net neutrality, etc.

Anonymous said...

A10:52 said: "Forget about Shays entirely, as if she's not even running against him, and make this election a referendum on the President."

That is what she has been doing for the past 3 years Anon. In '04 she ran against Tom Delay & George Bush, not Chris Shays. She is doing it again (sans Tom Delay).

The majority of voters in the 4thCD want more. Obviously, this is going to be a very close race, just like last time. Farrell's unwillingness or inability to present a positive vision of who she is will be her ultimate downfall.

Other than being opposed to Bush and the war in Iraq (and even there she is a bit of a Johnny-come-lately), who is Diane Farrell and what does she stand for other than the generic far-left agenda?

No one knows. That is why she will lose.

bluecoat said...

Farrell may not be running such a great campaign by running against Bush - with RoyO and Rahm doing the advising - but that's her choice. However, she's made her stance clear on a decent number of issues if anyone looks at her webpage to the right - and she's agreed to eleven debates so we should hear a little more thaan just Iraq between now and election day. To suggest that no one knows suggests anon doesn't know much about the voters in the fourth.

Anonymous said...

Ah yes, the "Johnny Come Lately" to being opposed to the war...

Nothing like being opposed to the war in October of 2002 like she was at a peace march in Westport. But, you know, let's just spout talking points on this.

Oh, and as far as I can tell, supporting a specific energy policy (The New Apollo Energy Act), introducing an original port security plan in March of 2006, advocating a balanced budget. I could go on, but this is my point: Yes, there is a focus on Bush and Iraq, but to say that Diane isn't putting forward things on her own is to ignore many of the things that she has done and advocated since becoming a candidate.

turfgrrl said...

While Farrell keeps stoking the Iraq war as an issue, poll after poll shows that most people have already made up their mind on that issue. For Farrell to reach out to new voters will rely on the campaign's ability to paint the stark reality that if the choice is between sending Shays back to continue doing more of the same old thing and voting for change. Shays is not going to change the politics of the Republican party. Only a change in leadership of the House will jump start a Congress that provides oversight to the executive branch instead of a free pass.

GMR said...

These 16% that have not decided yet -- how many of them are really going to vote?