Sunday, October 01, 2006

CT-02: Simmons, Courtney Release Conflicting Polls

(hat tip to MLN for finding this one)

According to the Norwich Bulletin, internal polls show that Simmons is either up by around 15 or down by 1:
U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons' campaign released information regarding its internal polling that shows the three-term Republican incumbent leading Democratic challenger Joseph Courtney 50 percent to 36 percent. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its internal polling data that said Courtney was holding a 1 percentage point lead, essentially proclaiming the race a dead heat.

It's not surprising both "internal" polls -- conducted by the national political parties -- have their guy out front. (Hackett)

We have seen almost nothing in the way of reliable polling for the 2nd District--so who knows where the race actually stands? I have a lot of trouble believing Simmons could be up by 15%, though. Not in this district, and not this year.

Source
Hackett, Ray. "Column: Dodd reflects on Nuremberg trials, his father's role." Norwich Bulletin 1 October, 2006.

21 comments:

disgruntled_republican said...

Why do you have a hard time beleiving GC? Just because the JI hates Simmons doesn't mean the voters do. Rob gets things done in the 2nd...all over the 2nd. Look at the funding he brings to all the towns...amazing numbers. People remember things like that. Especially with how bad CT gets screwed with these formulas....

Add to that the no issues campaign his opponent is fighting and well, you know what I would say next.

Anyway, I think 15 is probably a bit high but him with a respectable lead is not something I doubt. And if I am not mistaken, his campaign pays a pollster to do their polling, not the feds. I beleive it is the same pollster from his previous elections too, but I am not positive.

Genghis Conn said...

I don't doubt that he could be ahead, but 15% seems way too big a lead to me. When was the last time this district saw a congressional election decided by that many points?

Anonymous said...

Simmons has won by 8 twice, last time in a weak Presidential year for his party. He obviously is a pretty strong candidate

bluecoat said...

there's been no reliable polling - that I have seen anyway - in the 4th CD either.

Anonymous said...

These polls are all a waste of time. All 3 incumbent Republican Congressmen are in tough races and all 3 will be close on election night. Turnout, as is so often the case, will be the determinent factor. The Democrats and anti-Bush voters seem very energized. Will the Republican vote also be energized? Can the fear of Speaker Pelosi motivate Republican-thinking voters? And, lastly, what is the impact of Lieberman on the bottom of the ballot?

Anonymous said...

Republicans will turn out to vote agaisnt Lamont. The primary backfired on the Dems

Brian said...

i think lamont will win the general election by 3 percent.........i like courtney to win by less than 3 percent. I just graduated from Uconn and I'm from Enfield. Personally I can say these two towns will have the biggest affect on a Courtney win. I know in Enfield Courtney will win with about 55-60 percent of the vote. In Mansfield Courtney will get above 75-80% of the vote. Also, the voter turnout will be extremely high in both these towns. Democratic and Independent turnout all across the state will be record high to get lamont into office and get all the reuplican bums out.

disgruntled_republican said...

Brian -

Now that's a good one. Let me ask you, how much time have spent analizing the races because your Enfield prediction cracks me up. Enfield always votes very independantly and need I remind you that Simmons caried Enfield both in 2002 and 2004 - 2004 when Kerry and Kiner won Enfield big. Vets love Simmons and they vote and we have a ton of them. Seniors like him too. He has been in Enfield constantly since it was moved to the 2nd and is consistantly bring home the bacon for us too. Nice try at spin bucko.

disgruntled_republican said...

Oh, and Enfield will go big for Lieberman too.

Genghis Conn said...

DR,

Pretty sure Enfield will go for Lieberman, but I could see Courtney scratching out a win here. Simmons won the town by over 400 votes in 2002 (out of about 12,000 cast), and 104 votes in 2004 (out of about 17,000 cast). GOTV will be crucial. The more people who go to the polls, the more likely it is that Courtney can win.

disgruntled_republican said...

GC-

To each their own. Republicans are and will continue to be energized with great GOTV efforts ongoing. Simmons will win Enfield by a margin similar to previous years.

The Architect said...

Brian: Courtney will win Mansfield - now there's a daring prediction, you're really going out on the limb with that one.

Simmons will take Enfield once again however. If he can win Enfield with George Bush on the ballot, winning in an off-year is a piece of cake.

Anonymous said...

On the Uconn crowd, from what I am hearing, the GOTV from Courtney will be massive compared to what he didn't do 4 years ago. Of course, the Dems always win that area, but watch the turnout on election day - massive...

Brian said...

Bush is so disliked in both Enfield and Mansfield so much.....Simmons is going to lose....I would put a million bucks on it...

The Architect said...

So sad you can't form an independent thought.... simply spewing the left wing propaganda of the UConn PoliSci Department.

disgruntled_republican said...

The Architect -

It is pretty horrible, isn't it? The kid has no idea what he is saying. I actually almost feel bad for him.

Anonymous said...

Simmons has done a great job of touting his accomplishments, while Courtney continues to run against George W. Bush. I understand the thought process and negative approval ratings behind the strategy, but I don't think anyone can win - be it Lamont or Courtney - by merely blasting Bush. You need a positive message. The election in the 2nd Congressional District is really a series of local races and Simmons has done a good job so far of demonstrating what he has done for local communities. I don't know who's running Courtney's campaign (the national party, the state party or the big-eared kid from the CT Young Democrats) but so far it seems to be an amateurish presentation of DNCC national talking points. GOTV will be crucial (as it always is in CT), but there is no substitute for a good, old-fashioned positive - and local - message.

Brian said...

We live in connecticut which is very moderate and liberal. This group of republican right wingers who are in congress right now are a disgrace to this country. I would rather have Hugo Chavez as senate majority leader than Bill Frist. He is a joke. And every democrat in congress should attack Bush because its' the most patriotic thing to do. Bush is the village idiot and I'm glad Lamont is doing something to change the pathetic state of our Senate.

disgruntled_republican said...

Brian -

You really are brain dead, arent you? Perhaps you should go join Hugo as even members of YOUR party said he was out of line and some showed total outrage. Your youthful exhuberance has shown here.

Shadow said...

Lamont will win by a few points; anti-Bush sentiment will sweep Mansfield and take Enfield not only for him, but Courtney as well. The theory that Simmons winning in 2004 means he'll definitely win in 2006 is not only contradictory to history, but antithetical to every analysis on this topic from all sides of the political spectrum. 2006 has the lowest Congressional approval ratings since 1994, and every historical indicator suggests a Democratic sweep, so Simmons is going to have a much tougher time this year than in 2004 no matter what happens. The fact that this year is the most nationalized midterm election in history just adds to it.

All policy aside, the reason Republicans are going to lose the PR war for the House this year is clear in this online debate. Brian posted a reasonable, well- written opinion here; some of you may not agree with it, and you have every right (if not civic duty) to argue with it. But instead of leaving it at that, disgruntled republican treated Brian like what he said was a joke, questioned his competence, and accused him of spin. When Brian posted another brief opinion (again not referring to those he's debating let alone saying something negative about them), disgruntled republican and the architect said Brian can't form an independent thought, accused him of being a puppet of the UCONN PoliSci Department, described the situation as horrible and sad, and described him as beneath pity. After Brian's third post where he still didn't resort to personal attacks or name calling, disguntled republican said "you really are braindead, aren't you?".

There's no question, all politics aside, that dr and the architect come off sounding like a couple of schoolyard bullies teaming up on somebody. Nobody likes that tone, and nobody will vote for it. The only reason these kind of bully tactics worked for the Republicans for the years following 9/11 was a combination of fear, a neutered opposition party, and a neutered news media. The falling numbers on Bush and Iraq since then are proof that the illusion has finally shattered; no matter what minor upticks or downticks, neither number will reach 50% or close to it ever again. So the Republicans here in this forum and nationally would be well advised to drop the bully routine; it may have worked when most people believed you were right, but it will only backfire this election cycle. After all, whatever your personal politics, let's say you had to vote for one of two candidates in a race that you were seeing in a debate for the first time and knew nothing else about; which candidate are you going to believe is more qualified: the person who calls the other guy the most names, or the person who refrains from namecalling and uses all their time to articulate their position?

bluecoat said...

disgruntled probably should have consulted with Bill Frist to decide if Brian was brain dead before declaring that at 12:28; Frist decided Terry Schiavo wasn't brain dead from looking at a video while disgruntled decided Brian was from reading a blog. So much for the blog hosts - at least disgruntled -being civil as the election nears.