Some important numbers:
If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?
Made up 85%
Might change 14%
Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
These are all likely voters, which is about as accurate as you can get. The trend is clear--Lieberman has yet to stop the bleeding. Bill Clinton's visit didn't affect Lieberman's downward spiral at all, nor did Lieberman's secret bus tour of empty diners. With 85% of likely voters having made up their minds, it's very probable that, barring something unforseen, Lamont will win on Tuesday. There are still variables, like turnout, but Lamont's lead keeps expanding while Lieberman's support evaporates. It must be a mystery to Lieberman. Nothing has stopped the bleeding, and now support for his challenger seems entrenched. He has gone from a sure thing to the brink of absolute disaster in just a few short months.
In other news, Dan Malloy has narrowed the gap between himself and John DeStefano to 10% (DeStefano leads 48%-38%), although that's still a good lead for DeStefano. This one is still hard to call. The percentage of people who have made up their minds is in the 60s, but that still leaves enough wiggle room for a Malloy victory. It's seeming less likely, now, but the possibility remains open.
A Lieberman victory seems increasingly unlikely, however. At this point, the front-runners for Tuesday are DeStefano and Lamont. The major consequence of a DeStefano victory may well be better fundraising. I have to think both he and Malloy are low on cash right about now. Another consequence is a likely Rell victory, since at this point I don't see how DeStefano can defeat her.
The consequences of a Lamont victory, however, will be far-reaching, as support from the state and national Democratic Party starts to swing his way. It will also set up a three-way race for November between Lieberman (I), Lamont (D) and Schlesinger (R), should Schlesinger remain in the race. That one's going to be grueling.
For now, Tuesday, with all its uncertainties, still looms for all four candidates.
Quinnipiac Poll Released 3 August, 2006.