Thursday, August 03, 2006

Q-Poll Analysis

Ned Lamont has opened a significant lead over Joe Lieberman, and as Gabe has already reported, that number could well be higher.

Some important numbers:
If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?

Lieberman
41%
Lamont 54%

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

Made up 85%
Might change 14%

Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable 37%
Unfavorable 34%

Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

Favorable 46%
Unfavorable 14%

These are all likely voters, which is about as accurate as you can get. The trend is clear--Lieberman has yet to stop the bleeding. Bill Clinton's visit didn't affect Lieberman's downward spiral at all, nor did Lieberman's secret bus tour of empty diners. With 85% of likely voters having made up their minds, it's very probable that, barring something unforseen, Lamont will win on Tuesday. There are still variables, like turnout, but Lamont's lead keeps expanding while Lieberman's support evaporates. It must be a mystery to Lieberman. Nothing has stopped the bleeding, and now support for his challenger seems entrenched. He has gone from a sure thing to the brink of absolute disaster in just a few short months.

In other news, Dan Malloy has narrowed the gap between himself and John DeStefano to 10% (DeStefano leads 48%-38%), although that's still a good lead for DeStefano. This one is still hard to call. The percentage of people who have made up their minds is in the 60s, but that still leaves enough wiggle room for a Malloy victory. It's seeming less likely, now, but the possibility remains open.

A Lieberman victory seems increasingly unlikely, however. At this point, the front-runners for Tuesday are DeStefano and Lamont. The major consequence of a DeStefano victory may well be better fundraising. I have to think both he and Malloy are low on cash right about now. Another consequence is a likely Rell victory, since at this point I don't see how DeStefano can defeat her.

The consequences of a Lamont victory, however, will be far-reaching, as support from the state and national Democratic Party starts to swing his way. It will also set up a three-way race for November between Lieberman (I), Lamont (D) and Schlesinger (R), should Schlesinger remain in the race. That one's going to be grueling.

For now, Tuesday, with all its uncertainties, still looms for all four candidates.

Source

Quinnipiac Poll Released 3 August, 2006.

31 comments:

bluecoat said...

As I said before Joe has remarked that he has his sights set on the Govrnor's Mansion if he loses in November...and if that doesn't go he may try for Mayor of New Haven or Stamford since he has hailed from both. And if that fails, he'll try for dog catcher.

Genghis Conn said...

Governor Lieberman? That would be wierd.

matt said...

I know how to beat Rell in the fall...

Donate Sean Smith and Marion Steinfels to the Rell campaign.

CTRevolution said...

I don't see how a consequence of DeStefano's victory in the primary helps Rell. In fact, it hurts Rell. DeStefano will provide a real choice in Nov. between someone who represents the workiing people of CT and one who reprsesents cronyism and the failed Republican party. Rell has never faced a real election where she's been heavily criticized, she now will. And oh will her numbers drop, drop, drop. DeStefano's campaign has been in full swing to defeat Malloy's smear machine and they will be warmed up and ready to take down Rell. Prepare for a DeStefano victory tuesday and for the battle against the Republican party of Bush/Rowland/Rell to begin.

Genghis Conn said...

Matt,

That would, in fact, do it.

bluecoat said...

Yeah, Lieberman as Governor would be weird and bad too; as Senator we can suffer through the lip sevice he gives to CT but as Governor it would be a disaster - Sean Smith would be in charge!!!

Janet said...

CTRevolution-

I disagree completely. The candidate who can come closer to beating Rell in the general election is Malloy.

When you put the both of them up against her, Malloy is definitely more likeable to the general public over DeStefano.

cgg said...

Matt that's brilliant!

ken krayeske said...

With the Greens, Libertarians and Concerned Citizens on the ballot, how long do we have to wait before Quinnipiac U starts dealing in academic integrity and lists those choices for voters, as well? If they're on the ballot, they belong in the polls and in the debates.

I tire of the two-headed, one horse race when other choices exist, but are not acknowledged.

Gabe said...

Matt, Anon, David, et al. -

I called teh Q-poll and this is what they told me:

They are calling a random selection of all citizens and having people self-identify their party affiliation. The $6MM question is how the u-ds self-identified. Your guess is as good as mine...

Anonymous said...

Quote of the day:

"Senator Lieberman's campaign bus seems to be stuck in reverse," poll director Douglas Schwartz said.

Anonymous said...

The logic that DeStefano has a better chance against Rell because he presents a more clear choice in the race is baseless.

If there is one thing Connecticut voters haven't demostrated a need for, it's a clear choice at the ballot box.

In 1994 and 2002, Bill Curry--with the same liberal pedigree and leftist social policies as DeStefano--lost. Even Babs Kennelly, a once powerful CT and national Democrat, got whacked.

If anything, Connecticut voters have said time and again that given the choice between a moderate governor and a liberal governor, we will choose the moderate every day of the week.

Lamont may have the blogoshpere believing that over the past few years CT has gotten blue-er and will be the proving ground for the "new" democrats of america, but it just doesn't bear out in the Land of Steady Habits.

Malloy presents the best chance Democrats have of knocking Queen Jodi off of a throne she has never earned herself. She hasn't stood on her own on the ballot since 1992. She is vulnerable. What is not needed is a clear choice--what is needed is moderate leadership. Get to an equitable playing surface, and let the bluish tendencies of this state sweep Malloy into office.

MightyMouse1 said...

In a primary, nothing is certain except that momentum matters. It looks like Malloy is gathering some steam and the question is- can he close the gap over the next week to get a win?


I think so.

bluecoat said...

Guess who? Malloy, the moderate, or Destefano, leftie?
3) A More Progressive Tax System – To pay for Phase I of my reform plan, I will fight to enact a more progressive tax structure and repeal tax breaks for special interests. These two provisions will increase revenues to the State by at least $735 million and help create capacity for more comprehensive reform in Phase II.

In my first budget proposal, I will immediately call for an income tax increase of 1% (from 5% to 6%) for joint filers making over $1,000,000, heads of households making over $792,000, and singles making over $531,500. This progressive change will increase revenues by about $200 million.

My Administration will also prioritize the more than $620 million in tax breaks given to special interests and end those that do not bring a commensurate benefit to the State. I believe there is at least $535 million in unnecessary tax breaks, the proceeds of which would be redirected to make Connecticut a better place to live and more affordable place to do business.

Together, these sources of revenue will replace the General Fund gaming revenue my budget will set aside in a special account specifically for supplemental education funding.

bluecoat said...

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BRubenstein said...

Say goodbye Joe

BRubenstein said...

Derby Conservative...get ready to pay me off Wedsday..Lamont is kicking the tail off Joementum..

BRubenstein said...

GC...find a good diner for my french toast..bacon and coffee...paid by you...

Genghis Conn said...

Ha! We'll see who's paying for whose breakfast.

Anonymous said...

I'm voting for Destefano.... but frankly, am voting for Glassman for Lt Gov. I just feel she is much more qualified than that Sullivan lackie (sorry John).

I think it would be a far stronger ticket than what he has right now.

Anyone else doing that?

Genghis Conn said...

I hope a lot of people split LG and Gov. That would be really fun.

Anonymous said...

I am voting for Malloy and Glassman. Screw that West Hartford Mayor he is a kid has only been Mayor for a few years and has no real experience.

You guys who truly want DeStefano do yourself a favor split your ticket and vote for Glassman and let Scotty stay in West Hartford with one of the worst Town Chairs in the State Maureen Magnan and Outgoing LG Kevin Sullivan.

FatGuyinMiddleSeat said...

Likely voters are the hardest group to predict / isolate. It's quite expensive to get it right. Drives me crazy in every primary.

Accordingly, for a number of complicated reasons, I'm going to assume now that these numbers are generous for Lieberman- Lamont by 17-20 points.

BUT- there may not be a high turnout in absolute numbers. Just an intensity within that turnout. Reading those numbers carefully will predict how hot the general will be.

Brass Anon said...

I've talked to a few pretty smart people over the last few days, trying to figure out who they'll vote for next Tuesday. Overwhelmingly, the sentiment is to favor Lamont. Nobody likes Joe anymore. "We've got to get rid of Lieberman," is a common refrain.

But when I mention the governor's race, I get a confused look. These people don't seem to know about the governor's race. And if they know about it, they don't know who's running. When I mention the names, they can't distinguish the candidates.

Which leads me to conclude that the governor's race is way up in the air. GOTV will be crucial. Poll standing will be crucial.

I have heard that Malloy's morphing woman ad is causing women to want to avoid JDS.

I think that Malloy being on the same line as Lieberman may hurt him, especially with Joe plummeting now. Voters aren't really savvy - they may see some connection between Lamont and JDS, or between Malloy and Joe, and make their gub decision accordingly.

The less the voters know about the gub candidates, the more it hurts Malloy, especially with low turnout.

Which means that GOTV will decide it.

Malloy by 2,000. I hope.

Anonymous said...

It will be interesting to see if there is much ticket splitting. I've been hearing more and more people talk about DeStefano/Glassman.

It seems as if Glassman understands that she is running for LG and that people could split tickets for or against her.

Anonymous said...

I can't tell you how many people I've heard say that they're voting for Lamont not because of issues, but because of some perceived slight by Lieberman or his office. Some examples: "He didn't even bother to come to the JJB"; "I wanted to get tickets to tour the White House and his office didn't call me back"; "When my mom died, I got a note from every politician in the the State except Joe Lieberman"; "We haven't seen him at our Town Committee in 15 years." When it comes down to it, Tip O'Neill was right. All politics is local.

Anonymous said...

Since when does the Lt. Governor appear on a separate ballot line??? Usually we vote for the particular ticket--ex. John G. Rowland & M. Jodi Rell.

You can't ticket split the Gov/LG.

Anonymous said...

In this primary you can....

Due to DiNardo's convention screwup....

I'm telling you, it's one after another....

Anonymous said...

Why do people have such a problem with Scott Slifka on this site? Nobody ever has anything substantial to say about him, other than throwing around cute little nicknames like "Scotty too Hotty" or something like that. I don't know anything about him other than he is mayor of West Hartford. Along the same token, I don't know anything about Mary Glassman other than she was Kevin Sullivan's chief of staff. It doesn't seem like either one is having any impact on the gub. race at all. I haven't seen one quote from either of them. So how can you possibly split your ticket? Do either one of them have their own ideas for the state or their own policy plans?

Chris MC said...

Mary Glassman has repeatedly said that Dannel Malloy is the man for the job and Malloy has said that he has complete confidence in Mary's ability to assume the job of Governor if it became necessary.

More on Mary Glassman here.

And click here to learn about their project Strong Somen for Strong Leaders.

Anonymous said...

I have been waiting for years to vote for someone other than Lieberman or someone worse (like Giordano). Ned Lamont doesn't exactly fire me up, but I'm willing to give him a try. In fact, I supported the decision to go to war in Iraq. I really regret that now. My problem with Lieberman has always been his overweaning sanctimoniousness:

He's been married twice but won't let this poor girl marry her girlfriend once. He likes punishing debtors with a tough bankruptcy law but won't make credit card companies responsible for the messes they help create by extending credit willy-nilly. He talks peace and even-handedness but squires Netanyahu around Washington D.C. when he visits. He talks "choice" but lets rape victims hail cabs from one hospital to the next until they get their morning-after pill. Got to protect the Catholic hospitals from providing medical care, right? He gets hot and bothered about Bill Clinton's sexual escapades but remains mum on Bush's lies that got us into a terrible quagmire called Iraq.

And all that with his endless, papa-joe-knows-best and let-me-do-the-thinking-for-you-dumbasses attitude. I can't stand the man.