Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Q-Poll: Senate Race Narrows

According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, the races for governor and U.S. Senator are narrowing, although both incumbents still hold sizable leads.
Lamont (D)............37% (35%)
Lieberman (CfL)....49% (52%)
Schlesinger (R)........8% (6%)
[...]
John DeStefano (D)...35% (33%)
Jodi Rell (R)..............59% (59%)

Stick a fork in John DeStefano. As for Lamont, the trends may be going in his direction as election day approaches.

Source
Quinnipiac Poll 1 November, 2006.

57 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow! I saw the article in the Courant about TV Advertising - DeStefano is BROKE, and anywhere from 22-24 pts behind. It's all over but the crying for him -- and this loss is not just a defeat, but a resounding defeat! Yikes for his political future.

Anonymous said...

Now for all you Doug Schwartz haters, the point is three separate polls recently ALL show the same result

RCP Average 10/18 - 10/30 - 48.7 38.0 8.3 Lieberman (I) +10.7

Quinnipiac 10/24 - 10/30 926 LV 49 37 8 Lieberman (I) +12.0

Rasmussen 10/28 - 10/28 500 LV 48 40 9 Lieberman (I) +8.0

American Res. Group 10/18 - 10/20 600 LV 49 37 8 Lieberman (I) +12.0

Lieberman is consistently about 48-49 percent of the vote and will not lose in a race with mutliple candidates with that number

Genghis Conn said...

A recent DeStefano press release contained these words:

As of Oct. 24th the DeStefano campaign had $47,605.17 cash on hand, with $377,843.39 of unpaid expenses.

The Rell campaign, however, probably won't have any debt at all. Here's what a recent release from them said:

The Jodi Rell ’06 campaign also reported $455,228.54 on-hand as of October 24, with all of its television and radio advertising time pre-paid.

DeStefano has raised more than $5 million. Rell has raised about $4 million.

Anonymous said...

I took at look at DeStefano's CFIS report (believe it or not, I actually got in!) It's got to be some kind of campaign finance violation for your media buyer to float you hundreds of thousands of dollars of media costs, especially when you are $300K+ in debt, with no realistic way of paying them back. Shouldn't that really be classified as a loan, since it's unlikely to be repaid?

AnonAndOnAndOn said...

Amazing that the Democrats are about to extend their exile from the Governor's office another four years...

There are kids taking driving lessons today who've lived their whole lives without a Democrat governor. How happy they must be.

Shadow said...

Zogby's new poll has the race at 47% - 43%, with a 4.3% margin of error. The last Zogby poll, taken two weeks ago, had Lieberman up by 5.4%. No one ever mentions Zogby polls when covering this race for some reasons, and treat the Q poll like the holy grail, even though Quinnipiac is the one that has come under criticism and suspicion in this race.

Rasmussen's new poll has the race narrowing from a ten point lead to an eight point lead; I don't know have the margin of error in front of me, but if it's +/- 4 points, that means the race is a dead heat (most people seem to forget this, but sampling error applies to BOTH numbers in any poll).

Zogby and Rasmussen are the ONLY two polls released in the last couple of weeks aside from the Q poll, which has come under allegations of stopping the polling at a certain point to give a certain result.

Furthermore, just when new Rasmussen and Zogby numbers show the race within the margin of error, Q has to release a new poll and steal the headlines with assertions of a double digit lead. Very shady. What's even worse is that they've even succeeded here on an independent blog like Connecticut Local Politics; Q is the headline, Rasmussen is the afterthought, and you wouldn't have even seen the Zogby number here if I hadn't posted it.


However, I am also a realist, and DeStefano is clearly cooked.

Vote Thornton for Governor.

Anonymous said...

Reuters/Zogby Poll Results

Connecticut-2

A new Democratic ad attacked Republican Rep. Rob Simmons as "a rubber stamp" for Bush on energy policy, while Democratic challenger Joe Courtney said Bush and Simmons "have taken our country down the wrong path."

Simmons, a Vietnam veteran, said in an ad he had "seen the ugly face of war" and he would "do all I can to keep our soldiers safe."

Simmons' lead has widened from the Oct. 4 poll.

Republican 47%
Democrat: 42%
Not sure: 11%

Anonymous said...

DeStefaNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO victory party on Tuesday night! Mary G., cancel the hall reservation! We can't afford it anyways!!!

Genghis Conn said...

Hula Hank's will be very disappointed.

Anonymous said...

I can't believe this poll, all my friends and family (the ones I send postcards to) they all are voting Lamont. And what about Alan, I mean he was so good at the debates, (like a Greek God, I love him) and all my friends and the blogs (the blogs) say Alan would pull from Joe, but what happened??? And that float--I love that float, I mean what can be better than a couple of idealistsic mid age guys following a Senator in a pickup with a float. I mean, doesn't that just rev up the base--or something??? Isn't Joe really a Bush kissing toady??? Why doesn't everyone see this??? What are people thinking??? Well I guess they aren't--but my friends (and family) well they are so smart, so very very smart. And I'm smart too...I am not voting for JOE BUSHITLER Lieing JOE. These polls are dumb, just like all the DLC types...dumb...and Kerry is right, why the soldiers are idiots..stupid people...argggggggg...where is my latte????

Shadow said...

Two other polls just out tell a different story about Courtney/Simmons:


Constituent Dynamics:

Courtney (D) 51%, Simmons (R) 45%


Research 2000:

Courtney (D) 48%, Simmons (R) 47%


In all these polls, even the one earlier where Simmons was leading, notice that he hasn't gotten above 47%.

Poll principle #1: If an incumbent in a two way race isn't polling at 50%, they're in big trouble (NOT TO MENTION a Republican in a pro-Democrat, anti-incumbent national wave).

That's why the Republcians released their own poll several days ago saying Simmons had 50%; they know no poll has said that for a long time, and they know that at least one poll has to say that publicly for Simmons to appear competetive going into the race, thus having the best chance of pulling off a longshot.

bluecoat said...

the CT Post endorsed Rell today. surprise, surprise, surprise!!!

Anonymous said...

Shadow:

here's a nice press release from 2004 that shows Simmons below 50 percent. That turned into an 8 point win.

Simmons, Sullivan nearly tied in poll

Nine days before the election, a new poll in the 2nd Congressional District shows a virtual dead heat with Republican U.S. Rep. Robert R. Simmons holding a lead of 2 percentage points over his challenger, Norwich Democrat James Sullivan.

The poll, which was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., and commissioned by the Journal Inquirer, The Day of New London, and the Waterbury Republican-American, has a margin of error of 4 percent, putting Simmons’ slim lead within that range.

Conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 20 and relying on a sample of 600 voters in the district, the poll comes just days after a University of Connecticut survey gave Simmons a lead of 9 percentage points.

The Research 2000 poll gives Simmons 48 percent of the vote with Sullivan taking 46 percent and 6 percent of voters undecided. Those numbers differ significantly from the UConn poll, which found that about 20 percent of voters still were undecided.

According to the polling firm, the Iraq war is hurting Simmons because he voted to give President George W. Bush the authority to use force against that country.

However, the pollster concludes that if Simmons was as far to the right as the Sullivan campaign has portrayed him, he would be losing in the district by more than 10 percent. It’s Simmons’ moderate record that’s keeping his campaign afloat.

The poll says 48 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Simmons and 34 percent have an unfavorable impression, slightly higher than in the UConn poll this week.

Additionally, the poll shows Simmons is leading Sullivan by significant margins among men and unaffiliated voters, while Sullivan has the edge among women and voters aged 18 to 29.

Anonymous said...

the Journal Inquirer has a progress report on the new CFR system today. get your copy at the newsstands now.

Anonymous said...

You wonder why Alan hasnt moved much since his stellar performance in the debate, it's because no one watches debates. For all the Lamont people who "Love" Alan, you are still voting for Lamont, even though Alan blew him off the stage, each and every time, on substance, on style, on knowledge, on courage. For all those people "Sticking with Joe" you are like lemmings at the cliff.
For Schwartz to say that 35% of the people saw the first debate in Stamford proves what an idiot he is. 35% of CT didnt watch the Super Bowl, on a Sunday night in prime time, let alone a debate at 1pm on a Monday.
Wake up Connecticut!!

CTRevolution said...

Genghis Conn, it's obvious that you've been rooting against DeStefano all along. Anyone who looks at the methodology and track record of the Q poll knows that in this election cycle it is complete BS.

Zogby polls which have been much more accurate in general place DeStefano down by 12 points. This before the two largest newspapers in the state endorsed him. At this point DeStefano is realistically down by no more then 10 points. Combine this with a large Democratic turnout and you have a DeStefano win. That simple. And for all you crying about money, I took a look at what DeStefano has raised the last 3 weeks and it vastly outdoes Rell. Not to mention DeStefano will have a far larger field operation then Jodi. The election is on Tuesday and it's the voters, not Doug Schwartz that decides who wins.

Anonymous said...

Maybe today's NYTimes article, "A Son of Privilege Takes His Baby Steps on the Political Proving Ground," will send some light on why Ned is still trailing...

Anonymous said...

When exactly are CT Democrats going to learn that running hard left doesn't work here? Malloy in 2010.

Shadow said...

> here's a nice press release from 2004 that shows Simmons below 50 percent. That
> turned into an 8 point win.


I understand that, however my point was that Simmons isn't above 47% in ANY of several independent polls done in the last several weeks. I agree with you that looking at just one poll and seeing him under 50% would be no cause to assume he was in big trouble.

GerberChica said...

From today's NY Times:

"And though he based much of his primary campaign on opposition to the Iraq war, when asked over dinner in Washington in September how many soldiers from his state had died, Mr. Lamont said he did not know."

This is your anti-war hero??? Lamont is not worthy of a Senate seat.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nhregister.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17404340&BRD=1281&PAG=461&dept_id=31007&rfi=6

"This is an incredible achievement," DeStefano campaign spokesman Derek Slap said of his candidate outraising Rell in recent weeks. "The campaign is picking up steam as we head into the home stretch."





Hahahahahahahahaha

Anonymous said...

The bottom line is that Lamont has yet to take a lead in ANY poll. I find it hard to believe that all of a sudden this will change on election day. DeStefano and Lamont are done...that is why most of the attention the past couple of weeks has turned to the Congressional races. I think Simmons will survive, but I can't say the same for Johnson & Shays.

Boating in Thompsonville: Tops in CT. said...

Seriously, could John Kerry be a bigger moron.

Don Imus gave him all the rope he needed this morning to escape this episode, and anstead he hung himslef with it.

Can't wait for his Senate race in a few years. Pack your bags, Ned. You're moving to Longmeadow!

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:08, what happened to Malloy 2006?

Did we ever come to a conclusion as to where his campaign went wrong and why they lost?

justavoter said...

Anonymous the anti Lamont one don't lecture Democrats about hard Left thats a bunch of BS.

We don't need neo-cons telling Lamont about how he should run his campaign and oh he is going to win on November 7th.

So take your Right wing garbage and stick it where the sun don't shine.

The only baby in this race is cry baby Lieberman a party of one.

Genghis Conn said...

CTR,

No poll has JDS close. None. Show me a poll where he's within 5%, and I'll take that fork out. But honestly, this one was over in August.

Anonymous said...

"This is an incredible achievement," DeStefano campaign spokesman Derek Slap said of his candidate outraising Rell in recent weeks. "The campaign is picking up steam as we head into the home stretch."

Oh, yeah. Picking up steam and headed right for that collapsing bridge ...

Anonymous said...

and my point to Shadow is: Show me ONE indy poll in the closing weeks of any Simmons races that had him over 50 percent?

It's not a bad sign; it's the status quo.

justavoter said...

GerberChica why don't you ask your Republican Joe Lieberman why he is staying the course with your buddy George Bush and the Neo-Cons?

Lamont will be a Senator of the people unlike Joe who kissed George politically and they are loving each other .

Why Lierman said if he had to do it all over he will support going to war with Iraq.

So you can keep Stay the course Lieberman I will take change the course Ned on November 7th and the hell with these polls the only polls that count are the ones in the voting booth.

GerberChica said...

Ah, I can smell the panic from the Lamont camp already, scrape and go back to your war-war-war talking points. It hasnt worked since Aug 8, but please, keep at it!!

Anonymous said...

A magic 8 ball will get you better poll numbers than fatty Schwartz polling in state races. The q polls won't even release the makeup of the voters who are being surveyed. The intenral polls have Destefano between 10-13 points behind Rell and have lamont 3-5 points behind lieberman. The polling over the last month by the Q has been pure malpractice.

Genghis Conn said...

Six more days till the only poll that matters, fortunately.

Anonymous said...

It is just absurd for people on here to be arguing about JDS's poll numbers. Whethere he's down 25 or 10, there's a week to go and he's cooked. Nobody with any ounce of common sense could realistically think he can win. But keep typing away trying to convince yourselves!

justavoter said...

GerberChica speaking of August 7th your man Lieberman lost as i recall the August Primary against Lamont who came out of nowhere .

Let me give you a reality check the War in Iraq is the major issue and Lieberman your Republican is in bed big time with the like of Washington insiders Goerge Bush Dick Cheney and your man Rummy.

Again the polls are meaningless if you vote by what these polls say then you might as well not run for office .

The good news is most people in Connecticut will vote for Lamont regardless of those that die and live by these polls.

On the grassroots level people are saying they want Ned not Lieberman so these polls are way off and again no one is scared of anything in the Lamont camp.

The only one running scared is Joe Lieberman and his slush fund of petty cash $387,000 dollars alot of money but where's the records ands who got the money etc.

Yep good old Republican Lieberman has alot of questions to answer maybe thats why he won't debate anymore on tv .

Anonymous said...

Starting to think some of Joe's slush fund went to the pollsters.

Anonymous said...

"Did we ever come to a conclusion as to where his campaign went wrong and why they lost?"

Hard to say, except that running to the left wins primaries, and that's what DeStefano did. And, as anyone who has paid to attention to past Gov races, that strategy is predictably getting him slaughtered in the general.

I think we just need people atop the party to wake up and support a candidate who is actually electable. And it's not like Malloy isn't progressive... the guy was way out front on things like gay marriage. It's just that he appeals to the business community so you get hardcore liberals screaming that he isnt a real Democrat and all that nonsense.

I also think that if it wasnt for that investigation that lasted a number of months, he would have put DeStefano out of that race way before an August primary.

In any case, losing that primary may be the best thing that ever happened to him. After DeStefano gets clobbered Malloy can start making the case that "okay, it was almost a 50/50 split between us last time, and now he had his shot... it's my turn".

Anonymous said...

I heard today from someone who is usually in the know....

said that don't be surprised if Joe doesn't complete his term.

Possible scenerio is being appointed a fed judge in hopes to land Supreme Court before W leaves office.

Or, Sec of Defense next fall.

I don't think would be kicking or screaming... and may not care who is named to replace him.

In either case, Gov Rell appoints.

Anonymous said...

Jim Amann is hoping that Rell wins so he can run. He has already started planning, and is urging people to vote for Rell. Let's go Malloy! Amann is far from Governor material, as is evidenced by his performance in the state legislature so far.

Anonymous said...

Amann would be a superior candidate for Gov. He would pick up conservative and moderate voters as well as Dems. He's allready got the support of conservataive talk radio.

Anonymous said...

Amann will also continue to have his free reign to spend and overextend the state credit cards with Rell on his side.

Great article in the JI about the shady dealings of Joe Gentile that Ammann is backing to get the old Norwich Hopital that Rowland's marc Ryan decided to give away for naught.

If JDS doesn't make it this time around he'll do even better against Malloy next time around.

brickbat said...

shadow: where'd you see that Zogby poll? I've looked around and haven't found it anywhere.

CTRevolution said...

The New Zogby Poll from what I hear, places DeStefano down by 12 prior to the Courant endorsement.

The Q poll had DeStefano up by about 20 in the primary close to that election and he ended up winning by 2. Schwartz is also the guy that said that Lamont had no chance to win the primary. The Q poll has consistantly shown to be wrong throughout this election cycle. It exaggerates leads and it's methodology is pro incumbent Sorry Genghis Conn, but I don't see the Q poll as the great oracle of CT and I wouldn't use it to predict this election's results.

Anonymous said...

I be suprised if Dan Malloy doesn't get the boot as mayor of Stanford over the next 4 years, let alone run for higher office again.

Anonymous said...

PREDICTION: JOE WINS. GEORGE NAMES HIM TO THE SUPREME COURT. JODI NAMES A REPUBLICAN SENATOR FROM CONNECTICUT.

Anonymous said...

Regardless who wins on Tuesday, one thing is for certain...the biggest loser will be Kevin Sullivan!!! Wow what's he going to do now?

Anonymous said...

DOUBTFUL. Joe is pro abortion.

brickbat said...

Joe is "pro abortion" this week. If he gets a chance to get on the SC he'll find himself flexible again.

Shadow said...

brickbat - http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/polltracker?page=1


It's about halfway down the page (although it may slide down further when new polls are added):


Zogby International (10/31)

Lieberman (CFL) 47%
Lamont (D) 43%


From what I have heard, this Zogby poll also reflects the internal polling of both Lamont's campaign AND Lieberman's campaign

If these numbers are true, Lieberman is screwed. Lamont has the Democratic Party GOTV organization Lieberman had in the primary *plus* his own GOTV organization (which overcame the former in August), he has a second spot ballot position to Lieberman's fifth position, and he has an anti-incumbent/anti-neocon/anti-Iraq-war national wave behind him, not to mention voters who are exponentially more motivated than Lieberman voters.

Anonymous said...

Please, Ammann for Governor????

Did any of you guys watch the video of him at the Milford train station?

His political future - not that he had one beyond Speaker - is cooked due to that video!

Anonymous said...

Sullivan is planning on spending the winter months supporting UCONN... their basketball team that is... AS JONATHAN THE HUSKY!!!

Wolcottboy said...

Brickbat-

Joe has ALWAYS been pro-abortion. In fact, he was one of about a half-dozen senators who voted against the ban on partial birth. That's VERY pro-abortion and why I won't vote for him.

No SC for Joe. But another appointment could be possible.

Who would contend for his replacement then? Hmm.. let's see this list is really short. Are there lines on this paper? somewhere? Hmm.. I go with Alan just for jumping in the race and having more boldness than Rell herself.

Anonymous said...
Amann would be a superior candidate for Gov. He would pick up conservative and moderate voters as well as Dems. He's allready got the support of conservataive talk radio.

1:44 PM, November 01, 2006


You're right. He'd have my vote. Anon 1:28, you're wrong about him not being gubernatorial material. The guy has a personality and knows how to use it. He's an average Joe and will do very well in the blue-collar areas in the state and with most social conservatives. He'd blow away the common CT Republican.

Anonymous said...

INTERNALS!!

Lamont's internals have this race under five points. One internal poll has this race at 3 points. Lamont is going to pull this upset off without a doubt. The turnout for Lamont will be spectacular and unprescdented in Connecticut history.

Mary Pugh said...

Cut and paste this into your browser to see the trends on google of Ned versus Joe google searches.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=joe+lieberman%2C+ned+Lamont&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2006

justavoter said...

I agree the internal data if you believe in polls Lamont will beat Lieberman .Without the polls I know that Lamont will win and there will be a large turnout to kickout Lieberman which the polls cannot see or touch.

On November 7th the biggest upset in Senate political races will be Liebermans loss and Lamont win.

The grassroots effort around the state for Lamont is excellent and in every community Lamont supporters are doing all the right things to makesure Lamont wins.

The time for change is now ,November 7th we throw the bum out once and for all.

Ghost of Yogi said...

I guess if what I have to say challenges the all-knowing, all-seeing posts of GGC, then I won't get play. Thanks, GGC, for providing your expert opinion and censoring your opposition.

All hail GGC. THe supreme and glorious GGC, commands you, comrades, to work harder. The Ministry of Plenty is just 100 pairs short of meeting the shoe quota.

Shadow said...

I didn't realize Yogi went senile before he died.

Anonymous said...

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