Sunday, November 05, 2006

Predictions

It's Sunday. Two days until the election. Prediction time!

Here's what I see (and I am probably wrong on at least one of these):

Rell over DeStefano and Thornton by 10-15%. She will be the only bright spot for the state GOP on Tuesday night.

Lieberman over Lamont and Schlesinger by a much narrower margin than we expect, say, 3-5%. But he'll still win.

Farrell, Courtney and Murphy over Shays, Simmons and Johnson, all by less than 4%. But in each race, national trends are drawing independent voters across the lines, and away from the Republicans they've supported in the past.

In state, Democrats will continue to hold the General Assembly by a wide margin, and may even pick up a few seats in the House. Republicans have a shot at picking up a seat or two in the Senate (Caliguiri, Russo), but may lose Kissel. No radical shifts here.

The end result of all this is that the state Republican Party will find itself staring at utter oblivion by 2010. Welcome to Connect-achusetts.

Nationally, Democrats will win the House, but narrowly miss control of the Senate; and, after a brief pause to catch our collective breath, American political junkies will start obsessing about 2008. That last one is the surest bet of all.

So what do you think? What's going to happen on Tuesday?

51 comments:

Chris MC said...

Predictions: I agree down the line, except:
after a brief pause to catch our collective breath, American political junkies will start obsessing about 2008.?

Who's pausing?

;-)

Anonymous said...

Pretty sad when a 15 watt bulb, Rell, is a bright spot for the Republicans in CT.

Genghis Conn said...

2010 predictions, anyone? :)

(Blumenthal over Fedele)

Anonymous said...

I, too, agree completely with two possible exceptions: 1) Simmons squeaking through based on his role in the sub base translating into unexpected GOP votes in the SE Connecticut area; and 2) Lamont with a tight win. Saw the ballot for the first time today and Lieberman's ballot position is truly awful.

Bobby McGee said...

I think the Senate race is a toss up; there are way too many variables...

Ozy said...

If you want to post an awesome YOUTUBE this one came up this morning! This video speaks for itself Connecticut and our Troops deserve better!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PpUIKD3-iw

Genghis Conn said...

I've seen some "Vote Joe" signs that highlight his ballot position. Should have taken a picture.

Wolcottboy said...

I agree with most except:

Rell with a greater lead.

Lieberman winning by 10%, Schlesinger breaking 20%. Lamont's numbers will be lower than expected, and he utterly fails in Waterbury by at least 30%

Farrell wins, Simmons in a squeeker (as usual). Johnson wins after it starts to rain around 6pm and Democrats forget how to get to the polls. (by about 2-3%)

Statewide: Dems more or less keep an equal number of seats but Republicans win with larger numbers in contested races.

State Senate: 3 seats for Republicans.

Ovreall turnout: Democrats will come out big with Lamont and Lieberman in the race, but interest will wane from there.

Chris MC said...

Wolcott boy - you agree with most except, like, everything... [chuckling] ;-)

Wolcottboy said...

Yes of course I do. :)
I think there were only two variations there...! (what's that.. 30% of the predictions? haha)


BTW, as for the weather forecast, I wanted to be a weatherman when I was younger. Slight chance of slightly swinging Nancy's race.

(thinks for a second, puts on his political hat...)

Actually....
Latest computer models are showing a possible DELUGE of rain in the 5th district starting right about evening rush hour. Maybe even earlier.

Anonymous said...

Murphy's last minute campaign tactics are alienating voters in Cheshire. I think he will do much worse here than he is counting on, and due to Jarjura's tacit endorsement of Johnson loses Waterbury outright--and thus the election narrowly

Anonymous said...

Ned Lamont defeats Joe Lieberman by 537 votes. Alan Schlesinger gets a surprisingly large number of votes. People claim that many people voted on the A line, thinking they are voting for Lieberman, but really voting for Schlesinger.

Due to the closeness of the race, a statewide recount starts. Lieberman requests that votes in Waterbury are recounted by hand. Unlike 2000, Lieberman fights hard to make sure that every vote (for him) is counted. It goes to the Supreme Court. A full recount takes place with there only being issues where the new voting machines had been used.

Massive voter fraud is discovered in Waterbury with a smaller amount of voter fraud being discovered with absentee voters in Hartford.

In the end, Lamont wins very narrowly, and several Lieberman staffers end up going to jail.

cgg said...

Senate race is a toss up. We might not even know on election night. It's going to be a nail biter and at the moment I'm not ready to declare either side a winner.

Southington Attorney said...

I just went by Zoni's HQ, which is right on Main Street in Southington, and he has people all over the place.

Word is that he had a number of folks out in Waterbury this morning.

Democrats are notoriously better at GOTV efforts and Zoni is clearly continuing the trend. Other than visibility by staffers, Sam has been conspicuously sheltered. I've had many Republicans/Independants in Southington question why they haven't recieved a call from anyone in Sam's camp.

This is going to be a great race to watch on Tuesday night.

turfgrrl said...

Farrell wins in a squeaker, Simmons wins in a squeaker. Johnson and Murphy goes to a recount. Lieberman wins by 5%. DeStefano gets less than 35% of the vote.

Chris MC said...

Cute, turfy.
;-)

Southington Atty - from my armchair over here I'm guessing Sam's happy to let sleeping dogs lie in Southington, and Dave in Wolcott & east Waterbury. What I wanna know is - what is going on in the north end of Cheshire?

AnonAndOnAndOn said...

Lieberman by 8 points.

Simmons by 2.
Farrell by 6.
Johnson in a recount by 1. Won't be called before Friday.

Caligiuri wins, and within 24 hours, people suddenly wonder why they care.

Kissel holds on.
Doyle wins comfortably.

2010: It's Fedele v. Malloy.

Mary Glassman is 5th District Democratic nominee (if my prediction on the 5th holds true) vs. the survivor of a GOP brawl of a primary. If Murphy wins, the GOP will settle things at the convention.

BOTH GOP and Dems have new state chairs by December.

Amann vs. Donnie Williams race for Governor kicks off immediately.

State House Rs pick up net 1 or 2 seats. Caucus libs try, but fail, to overturn Amann as speaker.

Schlesinger appointed Ambassador to sovereign nation of Mashantucket.

Dems nationwide gain 21 seats in House, and TIE the Senate.

Chris MC said...

DAMN Anonandon..! Best predictions yet.

Chris MC said...

Tie the Senate? Can you be more specific?

hartford_for_lamont said...

Wolcottboy wrote: "Lieberman winning by 10%, Schlesinger breaking 20%."

don't be ridiculous; if alan gets 20%, joe is dead meat, period.

joe is likely dead meat even if alan gets just 15%, which alan WILL get at a minimum!

therefore, my prediction here is that Lamont wins by a whisker, with heavy thanks to Schlesinger.

the pollsters are morons to suggest that the official CT GOP senatorial candidate will not even break 15%. the pollsters have utterly failed to convey/model the physics & dynamics of alan's great ballot position vs. joe's lousy ballot position.

also, alan has a kind of "cult character" appeal that always draws a certain kind of voter who wants to send a message.

as they always do, many voters will just quickly knee-jerk vote either straight Dem or straight Repub, ie, they will flick down all the levers across a given Dem or Repub ballot line without even bothering to read the names of the individual candidates. That will help ned & alan immensely, and will hurt joe immensely.

This idea that throngs of people are so in love with joe and his war that they are gonna go to the polls and carefully/contemplatively seek out joe's name is also absurd.

all the passion to turn out is with ned, and none of the passion is with joe.

the pro-bush/pro-war/pro-joe vote will be naturally suppressed by poor turnout by that voter segment.

that is why, as ctkeith has said on MLN, ned will get a rock-solid 80% of the 40% who theoretically polls for him to actually show up (a net voter turnout factor of 32X for ned), while joe will get an anemic 50% of the 50% who theoretically polls for him to actually show up (a net voter turnout factor of 25X for joe.)

Genghis Conn said...

Take a look at Electoral-Vote (which was 2004's must-check-every-ten-minutes site for political obsessives) for a map showing Senate polls. Basically, Dems will lose TN and probably lose one of either VA, MO or MT. Tied.

Southington Attorney said...

Chris:

I'm not going to speak for the campaign, but I do know Dave's been making the rounds everywhere.

There is a ton of labor folks in the district and if they all vote in tandem, it could make for a very interesting conclusion.

The historical trend in this district is strange. Murphy's plurality in 2004 was due to Southington, he split everywhere else with O'Brien (who posts here regularly). The difference in 2002 was due to minimal differences in Southington and Cheshire.

If those trends hold constant and Zoni does extremely well in Southington (60-65-70), in addition to holding his own in Waterbury (45-50%), it will be extremely difficult for Sam to win. However, it would take a strange turn of events for Dave to approach 50% in Waterbury. He is more likely to pull 50% of Wolcott, but the Corky-factor could play a role. I don’t sense much resentment by regular folks (who we all know don’t know who they are voting for until they are in the booth).

That said, prognostication is not my career and the winner is still decided by those who pull the lever, or fill in the bubble.

hartford_for_lamont said...

oh yeah, nationally the Dems will gain a net of 35 to 40 seats in the House.

and 3 of those net Dem House gains will be at the expense of shays, simmons, and johnson, who will all go down in defeat; they will not be able to survive the anti-bush/anti-war tsunami tidal wave this tuesday.

all the supposed anti-kerry and anti-gay-marriage "momentum" that the repubs had desperately thought they may have had has most definitely gotten all washed away by haggard, and then some, if such ever existed at all that is.

thanks to haggard, the pre-kerry-gaf theme of an extremely poor GOP turnout nationally is back online.

hartford_for_lamont said...

Genghis Conn wrote: "Lieberman over Lamont and Schlesinger by a much narrower margin than we expect, say, 3-5%. But he'll still win."

yes GC, that would be the logical prediction based on the polls so far, but what if all those polls were flawed, what if all the pollsters were struggling with the same obsolete methodologies to poll the most difficult election in the entire country this year??

here you go, the following DKos diary makes that case:

Another "Dewey Defeats Truman" in the making?

Genghis Conn said...

But how large will the turnout for 18-24 year olds actually be?

If you remember, this is exactly what people were saying in advance of 2004--that the college-age vote would swing the thing to Kerry. And if college age kids had come out in force, they would have. But they didn't. There was a spike over 2000, but turnout for the 18-24 year old demographic was still a dismal 47%.

I guess we'll see on Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

"the pollsters are morons to suggest the official Republican nominee will not get 15% of the vote"

Please explain how a sitting U.S. Congressman nominated by CT's majority party who had received 70% plus in his last re-elect received barely 20% of the vote in the 1990 Governor's race?.

Everyone thinking Schlesinger will do better than Bruce Morrison must support medical marijuana

BTW Caligiuri wins Cheshire big. They love him at the Notch and at Paul's

Anonymous said...

My prediction is that people vote the STRAIGHT PARTY LINE for democrats. As the nation finally goes democrat, so will Connecticut.

There will be no vote spliting this time -- and DeStefano will beat Rell.

Lamont will beat Lieberman, by a small margin.

Lieberman will demand a recount, and refuse to vacate his senate seat. Lieberman will bleed this second loss for all it's worth, creating national havoc.

Farrell, Courtney and Murphy celebrate their democratic victories without much fanfare!

Craig Dimitri said...

Hello-

First of all, I'd like to compliment you, on such a great site. This is the best political site devoted to a single state, that I've ever seen. (I also thought "Genghis Conn" was very witty.)

I would like to call your attention to the stories I've posted on BNN - www.bloggernews.net - in re the 2nd, 4th and 5th CDs. You would hopefully find them interesting. I'm from Pennsylvania, and though I've been through Conn. many times, I'm far from an expert on its politics.

To go directly to CT-related stories, we have a separate Connecticut News category - just cut/paste this URL:

http://www.bloggernews.net/index.php?s=&cat=74

and that will take you to all of the CT material. If you're interested in all our congressional campaign coverage, for all states, go to:

http://www.bloggernews.net/index.php?s=&cat=29

As you undoubtedly know, there are four vulnerable Republicans in Pa., and we have a lot of coverage on them.

Thanks - keep up such a great site...

Questions? Comments? Information? You can contact Craig Dimitri at cdimitri1@yahoo.com.

Anonymous said...

Actually if any polls were wrong they might have been last week's predicting a Democratic blowout. Here are the latest national polls

ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0
Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Southington Attorney said...
However, it would take a strange turn of events for Dave to approach 50% in Waterbury. He is more likely to pull 50% of Wolcott


You're ignoring two key facts.

Wolcott went Bush by a bigger percentage margin than any other town in the state.

The 80th assembly seat (entirely w/in the 16th) has been in GOP hands for 28 of the past 32 years.

The 16th, after close to a half century under Democratic control went Republican with the Reagan landslide in 84; and back again in 88 until the carpetbagger took it 4 years ago. Thus the 16th has been Republican for 16 of the past 22 years and will undoubtedly be again with Sam's victory.

The over-the-line Zoni mailing cost Dave big. His and his shills having the audacity to defend that mailing has cost him even more.

Nothing less than sleeze.

I've lost all respect for him, and I did in fact vote for him last year for Town Council.

Anonymous said...

"oh yeah, nationally the Dems will gain a net of 35 to 40 seats in the House."

Dream on.. dream on.

Statistically speaking the majority in the house loses 29 seats in the 6th year of the current presidents term.

I don't see the Democrats even hitting that benchmark.

hartford_for_lamont said...

GC, the Truman-Dewey-like cellphone factor here is but one of several different atypical, unusual, and/or extremely rare historical factors all converging on Lamont vs. Lieberman which all contribute to make the Lamont vs. Lieberman race the most difficult race in the country to accurately poll, those factors being:

1.) the Truman-Dewey-like "18-24 cellphone factor";

2.) the fact that we had a previously extremely popular 18-year incumbent (Lieberman) be defeated in a primary by a complete political unknown (Lamont), in a primary which had a historically high voter turnout;

3.) the fact that we now have a 3-way race where that previously extremely popular 18-year incumbent is running as a 3rd-party candidate with obscure bottom ballot line positioning;

4.) a situation where the pollsters cannot seem to find more than 9% support for a major party candidate (Schlesinger-GOP), where said major party has previously consistently gotten above 30% in similar CT elections;

5.) a pollster "Likely Voter" model which is not properly reflecting a likely 20-year-surge in both 18-24-year-old-voters AND a surge in normally politically indifferent non-voting coach potato indie voters AND a historical surge in new voter registrations;

6.) an extremely unpopular president and party (GOP) bearing the weight of an extremely unpopular & costly war;

7.) a likely "wave" year where at a minimum the House will change hands.

hartford_for_lamont said...

"nationally the Dems will gain a net of 35 to 40 seats in the House"

um, like, charlie cook and stuart rothenberg back me up here.

off to eat now but i'll be back!

Anonymous said...

The increased indy registration may not help Lamont. Lots of independents despise party politics and reacted negatively to Lamont's "turncoat" argument. They felt the Democrats were trying to take away their opportunity to choose whom they thought was the best candidate.

Shadow said...

That's hard to believe, I don't think Lamont made the sore loser argument enough. Whatever you believe politically, it's wrong to have someone lose in a primary and then run again in the general. If Lieberman wants to run as a Democrat fine, or as an Independent fine, but having it both ways is an attempt to overrule the electorate, and to further shield already overprotected incumbents from ever being unseated by the voters. What it's saying is that the challenger HAS to win twice, and can't afford to lose once, while the incumbent only has to win one time, and can afford to lose. That's blatently anti-democracy, and is illegal in many states. If Lieberman is successful here, it will open a Pandora's Box of copycat incumbents and lawmaker efforts to change state laws to reflect those of CT.


Genghis you are right about all your predictions save one.

Lamont will win.

And it may well end up being by a lot more than anyone is expecting.

I have felt very strongly about this for some time, and every single tangible factor with the exception of polls/media perception is heavily in Lamont's favor leading up to election day.

Anonymous said...

"um, like, charlie cook and stuart rothenberg back me up here."

Lots of people predicted Kerry getting the win in '04 too.

I'll guess we will see in 2-5 days ;-)

Anonymous said...

I suspect Shadow doesn;t talk much to the apolitical.

RE: Rothenberg. When you break his numbers down he has 16 R seats leaning D or D leading, and 20 "toss-ups". So to hit 30 plus the tossups had to break heavily against the R's

This was based on last week's polling and if the R party isn't in as much disrepute, first some lean D seats like CT 5 go back to toss up and second the toss ups break evenly or break a bit R.
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/

hartford_for_lamont said...

kerry was robbed in ohio, period.

hartford_for_lamont said...

"every single tangible factor with the exception of polls/media perception is heavily in Lamont's favor leading up to election day."

exactly; the polls run counter to all observed reality, and yet the pundits accept the polls as their reality, when the polls are nothing but artificial sliced and diced witch's brews of statistical head games which they call "models".

hartford_for_lamont said...

Rothenberg is now saying that the Dems will take the SENATE as well, and that has really blown away the beltway pundit class.

Anonymous said...

Predictions - write these down. They will come true. I guarantee it. (I think)

Rell beats DeStefano 59-41

Lieberman beats Lamont 47-44-9

Farrell beats Shays 53-47

Murphy beats Johnson 51-49

No recounts in any federal races, but all close.

Simmons beats Courtney 52-48

Dems pick 2 seats in the State House

Dems lose Murphy's seat (16th) in the Senate, gain Gunther's seat (21st) and Senate stays 24-12 (Kissel hangs on to beat Kiner and Finch hangs on to beat Russo)

U.S. House goes Dem by 10.

Dems easily take RI, PA, and Ohio in U.S. Senate, win comfortably in Montana, take Missouri, and narrowly lose Tennessee. Virginia goes to court to determine if the U.S. Senate is 50-49-1 Dem or 49-50-1 GOP.

Either way, all hell breaks loose as 2007 Congressional Session opens.

Cathy Cook does the best of the GOP underticket with 38% of the vote. Abbate does the worst with 32%. Roberts gets 35% and Farr 36%.

2010 - Bysiewicz vs. McKinney for Governor

CRAZY PREDICTION - Shays attempts a comeback with a 2008 run for U.S. Senate against Chris Dodd.

Fun stuff. Vote on 11/7, please.

Anonymous said...

HFL, evidently Conrad Burns and Linc Chafee have emerged from the dead this week . Stu might be surprised

Anonymous said...

7;04. Dodd's not up gain until 2010, at which point he will have served 12 more years in DC than Nancy Johnson has as of yet....will Chris Murphy demand that he step down?

AnonAndOnAndOn said...

Anon:

Intriguing.

GOP will keep Gunther's seat, though, although I agree with you on Finch.

Bysiewicz? Not over Malloy. Her best bet is AG.

McKinney? He should have been the LG nominee this time, but I still say it's Fedele. McK will run in the 4th CD in two years, methinks.

Enjoying the prognosticating, all!

Anonymous said...

Predictions on the competitive State Senate Seats. (Note: "Little" = <5%, "Lot" = >5%)

District 7: Kissel (R) by a lot
District 8: Herlihy (R) by a little
District 9: Doyle (D) by a lot
District 12: Meyer (D) by a lot
District 14: Schlossberg (D) by a little
District 16: Caliguiri (R) by a little
District 18: Winkler (R) by a lot
District 20: Stimman (D) by a lot
District 21: Debicella (R) by a lot
District 22: Russo (R) by a little
District 31: Colapietro (D) by a lot

Net-- Only two seats change hands (Murphy and Finch). Plus two for Republicans.

Wolcottboy said...

Southington Attorney said:
There is a ton of labor folks in the district and if they all vote in tandem, it could make for a very interesting conclusion.

You are generous in your comments sir. :)

That would never happen and theres many more factors at play over the mountain. If the Southington Democrats could do math, then they would realize they can't win the district with Southington alone. Simply being a Democrat or Union member means very little on top of and over the mountain. Remember, Clinton came in 3rd place to Ross Perot in Wolcott in 1994. They have a independent mayor who ran unopposed last year too.
Zoni will have approximate, if not lesser numbers than O'Brien did.


Prediction: Tuesday will be warm and overcast.
(warm is a relative word- I'm going to Nova Scotia for a vacation in a couple weeks. So I speak truth in the forecast!)

Wednesday I'll be hired by The Onion's weather dept.

disgruntled_republican said...

Rell by 18

Lieberman by 4

Simmons by 2
Johnson by 5
Farrel by 4

Kissel wins by 8 - Late negativity does Kiner in.

GOP picks up 2 in State Senate a few in State House.

Nationally GOP holds onto house by 3 seats, Senate by 1.

Anonymous said...

governor- rell over destefano 58-42%
us senate- lieberman prevails 48%-42%-10%
u.s. house- simmons over courtney 52%-48%; farrel over shays 53%-47%; murphy over johnson 50.5%-49.5%

democrats will win u.s. house gaining 19 seats
republicans keep senate while democrats gain 5 seats (lieberman will caucus with dems)

2008: mccain over clinton
2010: governor- fedele over blumenthal (very close)
senate- dodd retires

Southington Attorney said...

Oh, by no means can a candidate in the 16th win with just Southington. Though, interestingly, most of the efforts have been centralized here.

The district has always been decided by a combination of Waterbury/Southington. And with 70% of the district isolated within those towns, it's not surprising or shocking.

As the comments have shown, there are a number of factors that will decide this race. Zoni's the underdog, there is no doubt. But I don't think people would be overwhelmingly shocked if either candidate won. There would be disappointment and reflection, but I’m sure both campaigns are tearing at numbers, trying to figure out who wins and how.

Turnout, whether, GOTV efforts, party trends, etc will all play a role on Tuesday. We must also consider the statistics that show an overwhelming number of voters still have no idea who they are voting for the moment they step into the voting booth. Spontaneous thought can be deadly to a campaign.

way2moderate said...

Sorry to make dire protections here, but...

Having Schlesinger sitting in front of the GOP congressional incumbents is a tough thing to overcome. And what's most frustrating is that this was a problem of the GOP's own making. They put up a back-bencher and treated him as such. Johnson, Simmons, Shays have ample reason to be at once frightened and angry as hell.

Regrettably, in a neck-and-neck contest such as what we face in this cycle year -- this may well make the difference.

CTAndy said...

Predictions for Tuesday...and beyond.

Rell over Mayor John by 25pts

Lieberman by 7pts over Lamont (Lamont - runs in 2006 against Dodd. The man is a glory hound and wants to see his name on TV. He already owns a station... He should be able to watch all of his campaign ads from Wednesday until the first Tuesday in 2008 and believe that he is still fighting Bush/Cheney. Look out Chris D - there are a lot of unhappy Dems here in CT with your performance as well. There may be a "Ned" lurching around for you. Do not focus too much on Presidential plans - you will end up like Joe.

Dems sweep all 5 Congressional races. Times are a changing. It is time to "retire" some of our longstanding blowhards that waffle too much.

As for the rest, Wyman, Blumenthal, Napier. They are all doing a great job. There is no need for change here.

VOTE on Tuesday.