U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman (CFL) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) 38%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 8%
Quinnipiac University, 676 likely voters interviewed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 5, sampling error plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Update: Full poll here. Lamont has 66% of Democrats, but only 35% of independents. Lieberman has 79% of Republicans and 52% of independents. The irony is that this looks a lot like the coalition that elected Lowell Weicker to the Senate for all those years--except with more Republican support.
Source
"Poll: Lieberman maintains 12 point lead." Associated Press 6 November, 2006.
24 comments:
Yeah, and the last time we elected an Independent in Connecticut, we got a state income tax.
I can only fear what Holy Joe has in store for us should he hang on and win.
Why doesn't the Q-Poll release the partisan breakdown of their poll? I am very curious to see if its in line with the other polls in the race...
G-Bury Man - Thanks, but what I meant was the breakdown of the poll, i.e. 40% D, 30% U, 30% R.
Without the likely voter screen that tells how the poll was broken down by party, its hard to determine how much stock to place in a poll.
You can make Lamont win by 30% if you make the breakdown 100% D, or make Lieberman beat Lamont by 76% if you make the breakdown 100%R.
I am curious to see what breakdown the Q-poll used.
Shadow you make some excellent points and I agree the people that are saying Lieberman will win are worshipping the Q Polls like they are God.
The groundswell of Lamont Support from major Unions,Students,and the Middle Class and Poor Lower Income are all going to go and vote for Ned.The general voter in Connecticut who thinks for themselves will vote for Lamont.
If the Polls said Alan was going to win instead of Lamont these same folks would vote for Alan.
So if your voting based on the Q Poll your candidate is going to lose on November 7th its just not accurate in terms of the way people are feeling in this Blue State.Connecticut is not Alabama.
Lamont was up by 6% in the Q-Poll on the Monday just before the primary. He won by 4%.
How is that not accurate? Sorry, not trying to be snarky here, but I don't get the anger at Quinnipiac over the primary. They were actually right, or close to it, weren't they?
I believe the anger comes from the Q-poll before the final one. If I remember correctly, they had Lamont up by 239%...
GC - any chance of getting the to release the partisan breakdown of the poll?
Shadow,
The Q-Poll's numbers are among likely voters. These numbers are not far off from what other polls have shown, and I believe they are accurate. How close is up for question, but that will be answered tomorrow night.
As far as your underestimation of Lieberman's support, though, you couldn't be farther off base. I already cast my vote by asentee ballot and I think I am one of many when I say that I have never been so enthusiastic about a casting vote as I was with voting to re-elect Senator Lieberman. If, God forbid, I never cast a vote again, I am glad I was able to vote for Lieberman this year.
Oh, I am a Democrat.
This is clearly a race that will impact the course of the country. With Lieberman's re-election, potentially strong presidential candidates like Wes Clark will not be forced to see their support of Lamont come back to put a Republican in the White House again.
Ned Lamont is a moderate, a good man, and might make an okay senator, but he has the Dean problem. He appears to be too liberal and "out of touch" with the rest of America, whether or not it's true. This is just the opposite of what we need. Someone like President Clinton, Joe Lieberman, or Barack Obama, who fights hard for progressive values while winning the support of moderates and conservatives.
For the future of Connecticut and the Democratic Party, I happily cast my vote for Senator Lieberman, and I believe most of Connecticut will do the same tomorrow.
Zogby has Lieberman up by 12%, SurveyUSA has him +11%, Research2000 +12%. I don't think they're all working for Joe. Even with more committed voters and better ballot position I've never seen anyone overcome a double digit deficit to win a statewide general election with just a day to go.
Anon- you know why no one is complaining about the other polls? Because they release their partisan breakdown...
SurveyUSA has an interesting sidenote to it - Between the last poll and the one before it, support among 18-25 year olds (or something like that - the youngest cohort) went from Lamont +3 to Lieberman +30 and did it without an appreciative shift in the overall numbers.
So the real question is will the democrats heal after Joe is re-elected?
It's a good question. There are an awful lot of very bitter feelings on both sides.
Well, he claims to be a bridge builder, and someone who can work with disparate groups. This should be job #1 for him... right?
I don't know how much it really matters. (Assuming he wins) Lieberman doesn't come up again for six years and he most likely retires then anyway.
Generally speaking, they way we decide the moderate v. Liberal split is with primaries - you may notice that the other primary this year did not explode into a intra-party civil war.
I really don't see this as a problem going forward.
Anon comments on a website is the standard for determining a rift within the Democratic party? Seriously?
The one factor that no poll can account for is ballot position. A certain percentage of voters may go into the booth intending to vote for Joe but not find him in the place where they have in the past. There is no question this will hurt him. The unknown question is how much. Some people may not vote, some may be Democrats who then vote for Lamont and some may be Republicans who then vote for Schlesinger. It will be interesting to see how much a factor ballot position plays. In the end, I think it will end up a tighter race then the polls suggest, but I do not think it is enough for Lamont to overcome a 12 point defecit.
I don't think that's going to be much of a factor, A11:46. Remember Michael Jarjura last year? It is not easy to write someone in on the old lever machines, but voters in Waterbury did. Jarjura won in a landslide.
Voters in this state are smart. If they want to vote for Joe, they'll find him. Besides, he'll have people at every polling place to educate potential voters.
Will they be the same kids he payed to poll stand at the primary?
Because I don't think sitting under a tree talking on their cell phones (as they were at two different polling places that I stopped at) is going to help anyone find him on the ballot.
Anyway, see this NYT editorial on ballot position by a social science professor that has studied this phenomenon. The classic Poli Sci study was done in the 1988 Democratic Presidential Primary in NYC (where every polling place had a rotated different ballot order). The result was a 2-3% drop from not having the top spot on the ballot.
Turfgrrl,
You're absolutely right about the Malloy/DeStefano split. There are plenty of Malloy supporters voting Rell or writing in Dan. I hate to concede the governor's race before the votes are cast, but I'm being reasonable.
I just hope JD can lose gracefully and not be our next Bill Curry. I'll wait until Wednesday to start talking about Malloy 2010, though.
To justify: I think there's still Malloy/DeStefano fractures in the Democratic party, it's just that the Senate race dominates right now., you brought up various results of Lieberman not bowing to the primary results and running as an independant. How do those speak to a rift outside of the Lieberman kerfuffle?
Ya know I bet if they actually bothered to mention Alan's name in the polling questions he'd get higher than 8%!
Ya know I bet if they actually bothered to mention Alan's name in the polling questions he'd get higher than 8%!
Lamont supporters are unanimously devoted, and believe this election is one of the most important in our lifetimes.
This is a bit wacky. A lot of Lamont's support is from people who are just voting the Democratic line.
I know the "smart money" is on Lieberman, especially with the consistency of the polls.
And I know it may be wishful thinking...but my gut tells me Lamont wins tomorrow.
I don't believe "likely voters" will capture people who will turn out for Lamont -- young people who tend not to vote, the majority of the 38,000 'new' voters, etc.
I think Lieberman's ballot position is a real problem for him, and that a larger percentage of Rs than thought are going to vote for Schlesinger because he's easier to find (and there's a human tendency to stick with your team that won't be measured in polls).
I think the Democratic wave will keep more people on the straight ticket than expected, especially those who have already wandered away for Rell (and will feel guilty about it, see above).
I share the view that Lamont's supporters are more devoted -- because they are angry. I've heard the field operation has problems, particularly in one part of the state, but it's still broader than Joe's (which is virtually non-existent).
Again, I know it seems crazy or delusional, but I just think that this time the "science" will get it wrong.
We shall see.
I doubt anyone is going to take advice about how to be a "real" Democrat from someone whose handle is Blue Turned Red.
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