Sunday, November 05, 2006

Democrats: Time to Panic?

The race is narrowing, according to several new polls.
Democrats hold a 51 percent to 45 percent edge among likely voters, down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. A separate poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed a similar decrease in support for Democrats, who now have a 47 percent to 43 percent advantage over Republicans compared with 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago. (Elsbai)

This could mean that Democrats nationally will see fewer gains than they originally had hoped for.

In any event, Connecticut is the state to watch. If the Dems don't win any of the three GOP-held seats in our state, there's almost no way they'll take the House.

Source
Elsibai, Nadine. "Democrats Have Narrower Lead in Election, Polls Find." Bloomberg 5 November, 2006.

22 comments:

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Anyone who watched the 15 day, 16-19 point turn around in the RI Republican primary (regardless of what happens in that general election) already has an idea what the RNC funded, GOP Victory 06 team is capable of.

Here in CT the Dems seem to have forgotten just who's on the top line and the margin even they expect her to win by.

While the majority party should expect to lose seats at this point (6th year of the same party's presidential term) the blow out so many on the left are hoping for is unlikely.

Elections are about methodology not ideology.

A "kiss float" would not be considered a viable method.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to believe it, but I don't believe andy of the polls, with the possible exception of the Q. poll.

Anonymous said...

A lot of the anti Bush sentiment was due to lack of effectiveness, not a turn towards liberal ideology

Anonymous said...

Blame John Kerry...his arrogant comments reminded voters that the Democrats are not a credible alternative.

The Republicans may not be perfect, but the Democrats have no ideas and no agenda other than "Republicans suck"

cgg said...

It's not time to panic. It's time to GOTV. Races tighten right before an election. Sorry Genghis but the idea that Democrats should be in a state of panic is just silly.

Jawelcome said...

The US Senate race is just too difficult for polls to predict. Too many unknowns--ballot position, party loyalty on both ends, polling cell phone owners...and probably other variables as well. After a weekend of canvassing and phone banking from our local office, there is little doubt that the momentum is going Ned Lamont's way. Notice in a lot of the polls the high % of people who said they could change their minds. People across the board realize that what we really need in this country is to change the culture of fear-mongering and political entitlement. We have seen this voter realization first hand this past week and especially this weekend in overwhelming numbers. Voters understand that we have the chance to stand up and change Washington by electing Ned Lamont. No matter who Joe hires to conduct GOTV, it cannot match up to the grassroots support that Lamont has. Change is coming and these are exciting times.

cgg said...

Anon 8:44 All John Kerry did was remind us:

A. Kerry can't tell a joke to save his life.

B. Tony Snowe apparently doesn't comprehend English very well.

Anonymous said...

More ethics questions rising about Enfield Mayor and Joe Courtney official, Patrick Tallarita:

http://cooljustice.blogspot.com/

How many logs have to be thrown on the fire before somone in Enfield feels some heat...

Ghengis? Disgruntled? What the heck's going on over there?

Anonymous said...

Now Gallup shows the Dem lead evaporating faster than ice cream in the Mohave Desert

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-11-05-national-poll_x.htm

Anonymous said...

Spin away ACR.The wave is coming and it's going to be huge.

Only the sickest of the Republican Party are not embarassed to have that R after their name.

Anonymous said...

Dem advantage in Gallup has dropped from 23 to 7 in a month

Looks like all the insults are backfiring.

Nancy just ran her wiretap ad at halftime of the Sunday night game
Sure Lite Rock enjoyed seeing that one again

Gabe said...

Any one know what the Republicans' generic ballot advantage was in 1994? The same as the Democrats' advantage now?

Time to panic - for someone.

Chris MC said...

Heh - hit the link above to the USA today piece citing the Gallop poll. Here is the actual headline:
Polls: Dems' lead shrinking, but still strong

I think Murphy's GOTV operation in the Fifth is far beyond Johnson's, the national GOP's claims notwithstanding.

Billy said...

Looks like all the Democrats who were gay bashing are hurting themselves. The R's decided to stop sitting around and now theyre going to go vote. LOL.

I guess all the MSM and Libs screeching about winning already have really annoyed a lot of people and scared others into getting up and having thier votes counted.

GMR said...

Well, as much as I'd like to see a strong Republican showing, I don't think it's going to happen.

Tradesports.com is a site where people can bet on certain outcomes, including the probability of the Republicans controlling the Senate or House. Current prices are 73.6 in the Senate and 21.4 in the House. The payoff is 100, so the higher the number, the greater the probabibility of the Republicans holding.

I view this as much more accurate than polling, because people are putting their actual dollars on the line. Right now, the Republicans and Democrats are spinning away like crazy, but on Tradesports.com or the other betting sites, betting on the wrong winner just results in you losing a lot of money. In other words, if so many people thought that a roughly 4-1 payoff for a bet on Republican control was a great deal, you'd have a lot of people making that bet, which would push the price of that bet up. Markets work.

The generic Republican/Democrat question is almost completely useless. There are so many districts where one party has such an overwhelming margin, and I would think that Democrats have more of these districts than Republicans, due to their high votes from inner cities. It doesn't matter if you win a district 88%-12% or 50.88% to 49.12%, you still get to become a congressman. So if Republicans or Democrats are racking up gains in their safe districts, makes no difference in the competitive districts.

If you really think that Republicans are going to maintain control, jump on over to tradesports.com and put your money where your mouth is!

justavoter said...

lets look at who the company is that released this new poll.

Are they a Republican front or what?

Those tight socalled races will not be won or lost by this poll but by actual votes in the voting booth its amazing how many people will make there own spin depending on what a poll release projects.

Have we stopped thinking for ourselves that polls tell us who and how to vote I hope not.

Janet said...

Everyone from both sides agree that national polls aren't a good indication of the results when you're talking about legislative races. You need to look at each individual race for a better indicator.

Shadow said...

GMR, once again the voice of reason among conservatives here. I've been keeping an eye on the TradeSports number myself and I totally concur; true confidence means putting your money where your mouth is.

The Democrats are going to win at least around forty seats in the House, that's been the case for several weeks, and it's not going to change before election day. This is because the two key variables show no sign of changing: high Democratic turnout (due to anti-Iraq, anti-incumbent sentiment), and low Republican turnout (due to the Foley scandal, the new gay Evangelical leader scandal, the Abramoff/Cunningham/Delay/Hastert/Libby scandals, David Quo's new book revealing most in the Bush administration mocked Christian conservatives, excessive spending, bigger government, a Wall Street economy that is tanking for rural and middle class voters, and apparent incompetence and chaos in Iraq).

The only question is are we looking at a big wave (40 or so House Seats, 5 - 6 Senate Seats) or a HUGE wave (Over 50 House Seats and 8 Senate Seats). An article like the one posted above can at best be construed as an argument for big wave over huge wave.

One thing to keep in mind though, big wave is the safer argument for a pundit to make simply because either way you're covered ("I said big and it ended up being really big so I'm even more right"), whereas if you say huge wave and it doesn't happen, you look ridiculous. That is not really an argument for huge wave except to say that if there IS one coming, predictions about it are bound to be very cautious by nature, meaning we'd most likely be snuck up on.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Chris MC said...
I think Murphy's GOTV operation in the Fifth is far beyond Johnson's, the national GOP's claims notwithstanding.


It probably would be were Nancy left on her own. However this is the 1st time she's ever "enjoyed" being in a targeted race and thus received so much help on the ground.

The carpetbagger has done well in the past in the last days of a campaign but he's never run up against the RNC before.

Remember one thing - with him it isn't politics at all but a literal fight between good and evil. Should he win, both CT and America lose; as will (assuming he sticks to his MO) all who helped him. Ask those Dems that made that mistake in the past. He's easily the most personally disloyal individual in the game in either party for over 1000 miles. I've never seen anything like it.

Gabe said...

ACR -

Two questions:

1. I may have misunderstood your comment, but did you just call Chris Murphy evil?

2. Why are you expecting a better turnout machine than that Gov. Kilgore (R-VA) enjoyed in 2005?

Anonymous said...

Name calling is what ACR does best. Oh yes, and smoking up the big tent too...

Anonymous said...

Yes, time to panic dems.

Chickens are coming home to roost.