Popping up quickly to post this map, which is pretty interesting to look at. Basically, Courtney picked up lots of support away from New London County, and Simmons's support there wavered just enough to allow Courtney to grab the close win. Compare this with the 2002-2004 map. Pickups for Dems from 2004: Andover, Bolton, Enfield, Ellington, Vernon (in a big way), Chaplin, Old Lyme, Lyme, Stafford, Killingly and, of course, Willington. Pickups for Republicans from 2004: Hampton.
21 comments:
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Thank you Diebold!!! -Joe Courtney
Bluecoat- open the curtains and let some light in...
If you really want some insight into why certain towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley went blue this year, compare this map with the Lamont primary victory map. Those voters were the difference in places like Lyme and Essex.
Oh, and what's with this "Diebold" thing? Why would a company that makes cash machines have anything to do with the election outcome?
Looks like a strong Republican from Enfield has a shot at becoming a Congressman in the coming years. If Simmons does not go for a rematch in 2008, a Republican from Enfield should challenge Courtney. It will help to lessen the "blue" in the northern section of the district.
Give us 5 names in Enfield that would be a possibility.
I actually think Simmons was a special case. If he runs again in 2008, it will be a tight race like this one. If he doesn't, the district demographics favor Courtney to hold this seat for a long time.
Kissel for Congress? Hmm.
But right now, the best challenger for 2008 is probably Rob Simmons, assuming he doesn't go on to do something else.
Here's a question: is this a Greater Hartford seat, now, or will it continue to be a New London County seat?
If you had a brain in your head Bluecoat, you'd be dangerous. Lisa Moody is running whatever is left of the CTGOP and if you knew anything you'd know that she hates the Rowland people and got of rid of as many as she could on day one.
Regale us with your intimate knowledge of Fairfield politics, which of course you do in the Fairfield Citizen weekly, and leave the state stuff for those that have a clue.
I think that Simmons is the best choice to run again. People like a rematch and he does not have to work to get his name out.
Others named are good in their own right...but CD2 is a big district and their names are not as known.
Saying that I would be in favor of Kaupin or Kissel if Rob backed out.
Mary Lou is also a great name, but I think she would decline....
Thanks Dis Grunt....Have a great Thanksgiving.
Let's see, in the MOST Democratic district held by a Republican in America, in the worst year for Republicans in more than 20 years, Republican Rob Simmons only loses by 90 VOTES! Conversely, in the MOST Republican district of CT, CD 5, 12-term incumbent Nancy Johnson gets torched. You tell me who the stronger candidate is. Rob Simmons will be back in his basement studio on Capitol Hill by this time 2008.
And Bluecoat, I hope at this point you've realized that it's lefties like you, and not the right-wingers, who perpetuate Rove's omnipotent divinity. Good humor, but not good analysis.
I would also encourage you to stop on by wherever the CTGOP HQ is now--check for Rowland footprints. I think the only things you'll find are Moody's t-rex tracks amid the ashes.
Fascinating map GC. It got me thinking a bit, so I went and pulled up the town-by-town numbers from '02 and '06. Looks to me like Enfield and Mansfield held the key to Courtney's win.
Enfield turnout rose 7% over 2002 and it swung into the Courtney column.
Mansfield turnout jumped 31% over 2002. (!) and Courtney increased his share of the vote there from 67% to 71%. (Joe should send a big thank-you to whomever ran his GOTV at Storrs.)
One other interesting tidbit... Courtney picked up 3 points in Groton. I expected Simmons wouldn't loose ground down there. I guess I over-estimated the benefits (for him) of saving the sub base.
P.S. to anon 2:59 / 3:05 - Can we please finally drop "the most Democratic district held by a Republican in America" crap? This is "true" only on paper. In reality, the district's voting patterns are split right down the middle, making it one of the most solidly "swing" districts in the nation.
do we have a map like this yet for the US senate race? or atleast some town by town numbers?
The House Committee On Administration held it's Office Lottery for newly elected members of Congress in Washington today.
Chris Murphy drew # 44 of 49 lottery numbers and got a terrible office location!
Congressman-Elect Murphy will spend the next two years in the dreaded Cannon House Office Building "attic" in Cannon HOB 501.
To get to his office you need to take two elevators. He will also have a long walk to vote on the house floor!!
However, Joe Courtney made out in the whole process.
Due to the fact that the status of his race was not settled in time, Congressman-Elect Courtney will occupy Congressman Rob Simmons office, in Cannon House Office Building 215. This office space is a great location.
ct_husky said...
Grumpy, the GOTV operation here at UConn was a non-partisan affair run by a coalition of groups operating as the UConn Votes program. It was a combination of the Undergraduate Student Government, CT Public Interest Research Group (ConnPIRG), the College Democrats, and the College Republicans (among a few other groups) that really pushed the voter registration drive and got students to the polls.
What do you want to bet someone from the CTGOP takes those college Republicans out to the woodshed? "Nonpartisan" coalition or not, those were overwhelmingly Democratic voters they were registering and getting to the polls.
Looks like Courtney's margin is now down to 83 votes. 8 votes for Simmons were never scanned in during the recount in Montville. These new optical scan machines do not seem to be very "recount friendly". Could there be more "unscanned votes" out there?
You shouldn't overlook Windham when you study this map. There's a huge Democratic edge in registrations and no Republican party to speak of. The Dems have historically underperformed though. The margin they contributed this time is a bit of a breakthrough. I'll guess it's a combination of Lamont registers and a fairly active local anti-war scene. The Windham/Mansfield vote could be even better for Joe in two years. With over 20,000 total registered combined it could be formidable in a presidential year.
Looks like the J-I's fawning coverage of Courtney paid off
That and the WASP's bailing in the Lyme's
Courtney isn't going to lose in 2008. Joe has so much integrity and credibility to his name over his many years of great service he has given to the state as a lawyer. In addition to his service as a public health official in the legilature.
Joe has this seat all to himself because he has earned it by defeating a solid republican candidate in Rob Simmons.
The gotv in Enfield, Vernon, and the Uconn-storrs area (tolland, wincham, coventry..ect) was nothing less than spectactular.
The amount of college students and young people who got involved was unbelievable. The results showed in Courtney's performance in the northern part of the district and Simmons wavering of votes in the shoreline communities.
If Simmons doesn't run in 2008 I wouldn't be surprised if Courtney win by atleast 15-20%. This is because the democrats will be motivated to elect the first democratic president since 1996.
Looking at that map, it's hard to believe Simmons lost. It looks red with a few blue highlights.
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