Poll Conducted by Liberal Group Purports to Show Effect of Televsion Ads
Chris Murphy may be out to an early lead over incumbent Nancy Johnson, according to two polls comissioned by the liberal activist group MoveOn.org. The poll showing Murphy in the lead was taken following the release of a controversial MoveOn TV advertisement attacking Johnson.
The polls were first mentioned in an email sent to supporters, but no source was given. MoveOn communications director Jennifer Lindenauer said today in a phone conversation that the polls were commissioned by MoveOn, and were conducted by Voter Roll Call, a group affiliated with SurveyUSA. The poll does not seem to be publicly available on the web.
According to MoveOn, two polls were conducted to measure the effect of the ads. The first guaged support for the candidates among 400 likely 5th District voters from 3/26-3/28, and showed Johnson leading Murphy 47%-46%. The second, which also measured support for the candidates among 400 likely 5th District voters, was taken from 4/18-4/19, after the ads ran. In the later poll, Murphy led Johnson 51%-41%.
Johnson's campaign ran its own ad following the release of the MoveOn ad, and the Johnson campaign has accused Murphy of collaborating with MoveOn. The Murphy campaign denies any involvement with the group.
Lindenauer suggested that Johnson's tactic backfired. "[Johnson's ad] was so misleading that voters didn't buy it," she said.
A new round of advertisements from both MoveOn and the Johnson campaign is expected to debut shortly.
Update I know that many of you don't trust MoveOn as a source, so feel free to take this poll with a grain of salt. If nothing else, it suggests that the race is going to be very, very close.
5 comments:
I was ...less... entertained by that glitch!
The movement is remarkable, although in both cases the sample was pretty small (and therefore the margin of error high). I do wish the poll was online.
This is Swift Boats redux.
They said that she didn't deserve the three purple hearts and the Bronze Star won in a war?
Or criticized her actual voting record and the connection to her actual contributors?
It is a small sample. More polls on this race would be very welcome.
Still, it's the first indication of any sort we have of how the race is shaping up.
There may be flaws with the poll, most notably the small sample size. But I think I was pretty clear about who was behind the poll--so take it with a grain of salt if you like.
Why wait for the Q poll?
The guy in charge of that poll was stupid enough to say Lieberman had nothing to worry about last month.
Never trust a polls done in the state where that pollster is located.Especially if his institution is dependent on Federal money for part of it's survival.
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