Sunday, April 30, 2006

Gubernatorial Polls

It's almost May, which means the conventions are almost upon us. Let's do a little unscientific polling, shall we?


If the Democratic gubernatorial primary were today, who would you vote for?
John DeStefano
Dan Malloy
Free polls from Pollhost.com


If the gubernatorial election were today and the candidates were John DeStefano (D) and Jodi Rell (R), who would you vote for?
John DeStefano
Jodi Rell
Free polls from Pollhost.co

If the gubernatorial election were today and the candidates were Dan Malloy (D) and Jodi Rell (R), who would you vote for?
Dan Malloy
Jodi Rell
Free polls from Pollhost.com
This can be an open forum.

27 comments:

middlesexist said...

I think the basic problem is that nobody really knows whether Malloy or DeStefano has the upper hand at the moment. I'm personally for DeStef, but the lack of popular interest in this race -- give Rell's ridiculous poll numbers -- is kind of telling.

Normally, in primaries, a gubernatorial race will be a huge turnout boost. I think quite obviously the Senate race will be the driving factor in turnout, and that could be significant -- how will primary voters whom Lieberman and Lamont turn out vote?

Genghis Conn said...

I'm tossing this in the comments, and not as its own post, because it's unverified. But according to this comment that Rasmussen poll I can't get at says Lieberman is leading Lamont 51-30.

Which, if you're Lamont, is not too shabby, considering Lieberman has been running ads, rounding up Dem supporters and raising a ton of money. Lamont has jumped up 18% from a Q-poll in February. Pretty decent. Lieberman's lead was then at 55 points. It's down to 21. Lieberman is also very, very close to 50% there, which isn't good for him.

Still, 21% is a pretty big lead, and the convention is in three weeks.

BRubenstein said...

GC this quick surge in Lamont support without any ads on his part, bodes badly for Joementum...If Lamont can plead his case effectively on tv and the other multi-platform media then Joementum may lose.He also needs a good "U to D" program.

I now believe that Lamont will indeed get over 15% of the delegates to the convention...this will be a huge loss for Joementum and a huge win in the media for Lamont.

BRubenstein said...

Middlesexist...DeStefano really is running a terrible campaign( and i support him over malloy) ...its almost as if he is running on a rose garden incumbant strategy.

His issues arent bold or daring enough..nor are the tactics...its one thinhg to get bad advise...its another to be boring.

By this time both candidates should know their delegate numbers...so who is declaring victory? The silence means only one thing...a close convention.

Genghis Conn said...

The numbers on this little poll above are remarkably even. Interesting: six months ago, this poll would have gone for DeStefano by a wide margin.

I also believe Malloy will be the nominee, and I would be surprised if Lamont couldn't manage 15%.

BCMule said...

Genghis conn-what do you think of the only open seat up for grabs in the Senate-the 16th? Also, do you think Billy Ciotto will retire, what of Reggie Beamon's suprise announcement.
Anyone else could sound off on these questions.

ctkeith said...

GC,

If I had to guess right now who gets line A in the primary for Gov I stil think it's JDS but the margin of victory has indeed slipped from where it was a couple of months ago.

I think you mean you believe Malloy will be the Party endorsed candidate(win the delegate vote at the convention) in the primary and not the Dem Nominee but if you're suggesting Malloy is going to win the August 8th primary this early that is a bold prediction.

Genghis Conn said...

Yes, you're right. I should have been more specific: I believe Malloy will be endorsed at the convention. The primary is anybody's guess.

TrueBlueCT said...

Silly poll. To me, the survey suggests two things:
1) that Republicans prefer Malloy to DeStefano. (Well, they should! Dan Malloy comes from the DLC, Republican-lite wing of the Party.)
2) that a percentage of Malloy people would vote for Rell before DeStefano. (or have been coached to vote thusly.)

Honestly, it's hard to give credence to a poll that matches the two candidates heads-up, --not when Republicans are allowed to weigh in. Luckily for DeStefano, there will be no Republicans voting in the August primary.

Brass Anon said...

Once Malloy locks up the endorsement at the convention, he should get a surge and be on his way to a primary win.

A story in the Washington Post this weekend makes Lieberman look like he is in the fight of his life. Lamont looks like he can credibly pull off a primary win. I wouldn't be surprised if Lamont picks up 30% at the convention.

Beamon's retirement doesn't mean much. However, it would be nice if the Waterbury Dems could come up with a candidate who is at least a middleweight up at the Legislature. Interestingly, that district has seen a recent influx of Orthodox Jews, with the Yeshiva now in the district. That might compel the candidacy of someone who is not African-American in that historically African-American represented district.

In the 16th, I would think that Caligiuri, with his huge amount of goodwill resultant from saving Waterbury from the exploits of Pedo-Phil, will have an advantage and will likely parlay a win into heir-apparent status for Nancy's seat in a few years.

FrankS said...

Another Rowland crony exposes more of the corrupt dealings in this administration and she's still there, despite Rell's pledge to eliminate these corrupt officials.

BRubenstein said...

To The Staffers of DeStefano and Malloy...

By now you should have a count on your delegates...please post your numbers in this blog...the silence of both campaigns thus far leads us to either of two conclusions;

1. both campaigns are in such disarray that they dont have numbers as to delegate support.

2. both campigns are locked in a very close race for the majority of delegates and are not posting their numbers in hopes that they can "poach" some of the other candidate's delegates.

Furthermore..both candidates traditionally now are making final decisions for the selection of Lt Gov...it will be interesting to see who is selected by both camps.

bluecoat said...

FrankS: Ragagalia was always part of it but she was never prosecuted and now we know the reason for that is she cooperated with the federal government in exchange for being untouchable by them - so technically she is not a "corrupt official" who needs to go. And as an aside, it is absolute naivete to think that the federal government, or state government, will ever stop corruption because they need to condone it to prosecute. As for Jodi Bells, she talks a big game but she is clueless about what is going on in state government but so are many voters at this stage of the game .

Paul Vance said...

In today's Waterbury Republican American (no link to the story), there was a piece about Mayor DeStefano's list for the running mate spot. Audrey Blondin was mentioned as a strong possibility.

The rumor mill as to the running mates has been very very quiet.

Genghis Conn said...

What? No Kevin Sullivan? :)

DeStefano/Blondin is an interesting possibility.

It's odd that the rumor mill hasn't been more active about running mates. The convention is in three weeks. We may not know until then or just before then who the running mates for any of the three candidates are.

bluecoat said...

GC: Pesci is taking shots at your blog on his.

MightyMouse1 said...

Paul Vance, your name was in the mix early on, what happened?

Genghis Conn said...

Just turned up something in random research (yes, I research for fun) I thought you might be interested in. Apparently Chris Shays isn't the only one to suggest the GOP endorse Joe Lieberman:


"Things have become so cozy that former Rep. John G. Rowland, the GOP's 1990 Connecticut gubernatorial candidate, has contributed $250 to Lieberman's 1994 political fund. Rowland said Friday that he would probably give more later.

" 'I voted for him last time,' Rowland said, in Lieberman's race against incumbent Republican Sen. Lowell P. Weicker Jr., now the governor. 'Sen. Lieberman is as close to being a moderate Republican as there is.'

"Rowland, who is seriously considering a 1994 gubernatorial bid, said "if we're smart, we would cross-endorse" Lieberman next year.'There's no way we're going to beat him,' Rowland said. 'He's going to win big time.'"

From:

Lightman, David. "Lieberman crosses party lines at GOP party." Hartford Courant 24 July, 1993. p. A1.

Yeesh. I'm amazed that all of the Lamont backers haven't found that one yet.

ctkeith said...

GC,

shhhhhhh,We have that one and alot more.Timing is everything.

BRubenstein said...

GC..they got that rowland one and alot more...i knew that Mike Lewin ( lieberman's former chief of staff) gave and raised money for Rowland...Lamont has that one too (wink wink)

Yesterday, i was visited by a Lamont volunteer in my neighborhood in west hartford. He had a petition which my wife and i happilly signed...

Genghis Conn said...

Right. Never mind.

ctkeith said...

Guess which 2 Stamford Pols names were also on the "Freinds of John Rowland" list during Rowlands reign of Terror?

Wrath of Conn said...

This might be a stupid question, but what is the "friends of John Rowland" list?

FrankS said...

bluecoat,

By her reported admission, she subverted the honesty or integrity of the state's selection process to favor Tommasso in exchange for gifts and favorable treatment from Rowland would meets the definition of corrupt that I have found. Charging her with a crime is another standard, given how valuable her testimony against others could be used.

Rell recently wrote, "Promoting accountability in every aspect of government has been the hallmark of my tenure as governor. The bright light of reform should now focus on the judicial branch."

Well Rell's bright light of reform missed this dark spot. Nothing the federal officals promised bars state officials from acting to assign her other duties.

Wolcottboy said...

Rell will have Blumenthal on her ticket. :) She definitly likes him more than Sullivan.

Rell-Blumenthal '06

bluecoat said...

But FrankS you miss the point; Ragagalia redeemed herself by cooperating with the feds much like Lisa Moody took a "time out" when she got caught in Marco Pologate.

bluecoat said...

And this was a great poll; just too bad people screwed with the primary poll.