Thursday, September 28, 2006

WSJ Poll: Race Within Margin of Error

The new WSJ/Zogby poll shows Lieberman's lead is less than two points instead of ten. I absolutely trust the Q-Poll more, but it's interesting that some polls out there have the race very close, while others don't.

WSJ/Zogby Poll:

Lieberman.....45.8%
Lamont..........44%
Schlesinger......5%

What's really happening? I'd say the margin right now is probably about 5-7%, give or take. The problem for Lamont remains: he's behind, and his numbers aren't moving much at all.

22 comments:

turfgrrl said...

The methodology of teh WSJ/Zogby poll claims: Zogby Interactive of Utica, N.Y. has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby.

Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.

The Interactive polls were supplemented by 20 to 50 telephone calls in 20 states (AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, IL, MD, MI, MO, NV, NM, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, TX, VA, WI) to ensure proper representation of all demographic groups.


Which means that these are "self-identified" poll takers. Good for products, but maybe not applicable to elections.

Anonymous said...

One reliable thing we can take from both polls, Schlesinger's ability to tell us that his "internal numbers are much better than 5%" is plummeting. Whether Lamont is 1 point away or 10 points away, old Alan is still at 5%. Keep up the good work.

Genghis Conn said...

There was a big article in Campaigns and Elections about online polling. I still don't really trust it--nor do I think the race is this close.

I also suspect that web users tilt slightly towards Lamont.

Anonymous said...

Slightly? Have you looked at any of your own polls on here? Liberal Ned wins them all big big big. Too bad it isn't the voting booth.

Anonymous said...

This poll had lieberman up by double digits last time.The fact that it tightened this much and the fact that the same people are polled over and over shows that Lamont is changing minds.

The way this poll is done may not be the best to get exact numbers but it may be better for showing movement and direction of that movement.

Anonymous said...

***Top Secret***

Schlesinger 2006 Campaign Plan
Part 5
Polling

To conduct an effective, reliable, and gratifying poll, complete these steps:

In a room (preferably in campaign HQ), sit down Dick Foley and his gaggle of Republican political geniuses, along with the Schlesinger 2006 staff (er, staffer), so that there are between 6-8 people in the room.

Then provide pizza and drinks so that folks are happy.

Then have Alan proceed to read this script:

Everyone who is voting for Lieberman, raise your hand. (record results)

Everyone who is voting for Lamont, raise your hand. (record results)

Everyone who is voting for me, raise your hand. (record results)

Then proceed to announce the results to the media. (as in, "my internal polling shows me at 20%")

Anonymous said...

You forgot the important final step in the 'plan'...after completing the survey, give 'em all strangers.

Anonymous said...

I think the Q poll is the outlier considering the Rasmussen poll also shows a 2% lead for Joe.

Anonymous said...

The most recent more reliable Q poll shows Lieberman with a 10 point lead.

Anonymous said...

I just heard another insulting Lamont commercial which equates Joe with a direlict cop.

Lamont is a joke. Send him and his Kiss float back to the country club.

I am sick of being insulted by Lamont. Joe is the real deal. Ned is a wanna-be.

bluecoat said...

according to the WTNH report last nightthis blog was somehow related to the Holocaust reference to Courtney and universal healthcare - as if Medicare were't already govt. sponsored care or something? Kind of ridiculus but sad, the whoel thing.

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:31 - Joe, is that you?

Anonymous said...

The reality of the situation is the Schlesinger's numbers are bound to go up through out the campaign, especially during the debates, every vote he gets is going to be pulled from Lieberman, so even if Alan gets about 12%-15% that is a huge hit to Joe. I think Alan will play the spoiler resulting in a Lamont victory and ya know what that is exactly what CT deserves; is this a prick rich kid senator that has no idea what he is doing and were all going to pay for it but we brough it on ourselves so be ready for at least 6 years of hell!

cgg said...

I don't think we're going to have any accurate polling on the Senate race. There are to many variables.

Anonymous said...

Maybe this is why the Zogby poll shows the race so tight.

http://www.hyscience.com/archives/2006/03/polling_zogby_a.php

Proud Liebercrat said...

Forty more tortured corpses were found in Baghdad today.
All sixteen National intelligence agencies say the Iraq War has made the country less safe.

Stay The Course! Vote Lieberman for War!!

Brian said...

http://knockingondoors.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Connecticut needs to send a message to DC, "Stay the Course"!

This message is so important that CT Republicans are abandoning one of their own to embrace Joe Lieberman.

bluecoat said...

Helping Lieberfool win is part of the CT GOP's strategy of self-fulfilling their prophecy that the fool was untouchable in his bid for re-election this year. This is a brilliant political strategy; BRILLIANT, so totally BRILLIANT.

Anonymous said...

Bluecoat, do you EVER have anything positive to contribute? Or are you such a bitter little old man that you can't say a word without sneering at someone, somewhere? Honestly. It really gets old after a while ...

bluecoat said...

The CT GOP is pathetic when it comes to this year;s race for the US Senate; there's a two party system in this country and they wimped out because they thought Joe was unbeatable not because he was a warmonger like Cheney and Bush. and 6:47 whoever you are, I guess I never have anything positive to contribute in your eyes.

Uncle Buck said...

I am not ready to break the champagne open yet But I think if another poll comes out closer to election day and it reads the same. Then I will start celebrating the re-election of our Senator Joe Lieberman.

Ned Lamont...Inexperienced,Incomptent He is wrong for Connecticut, USA and US Senate.

Joe will win!!!!!! Lets face it Liberals your candidate is toast!!!!