Sunday, September 17, 2006

Dodd '08: Long Shot on Home Turf

The Courant points out Chris Dodd's #1 problem in New Hampshire:
But the Connecticut Democrat faces the New Englander's quadrennial problem if he decides to run for president in 2008 - expectations for him will be high, and New Hampshire has a long tradition of making and breaking its neighbors.
...
When Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman finished in fifth place in 2004, after he moved his family into a Manchester apartment for a month, it erased any hope for his long-shot White House bid.

Now the burden of finishing first could fall to Dodd, though Kerry is again thinking of making a run. And unlike in Iowa, the nation's first caucus state, where Dodd only has to avoid embarrassment to survive, he probably would have to win or at least wind up an impressive second in New Hampshire eight days later to keep going. (Lightman)

I'm not so sure that the "burden of finishing first" would be Dodd's necessarily. That would be Hillary's, or Kerry's (should he run). Still, as the article says, doing poorly in Iowa would not sink Dodd completely (unless, say, he were dead last out of 10 candidates), but not living up to certain expectations in New Hampshire would.

I have to assume that on the GOP side the same is true for Mitt Romney. He'll have to do very well in New Hampshire--he'll probably have to win outright--to have a chance. That could be problematic, considering how well John McCain did there (and here) in 2000.

I am really looking forward to what sorts of internet technologies play a role in the 2008 presidential campaign. If I had to guess, there's going to be a ton of video blogging, ad creation and more interactive campaign sites. I'm also wondering if 2008 will see a rise in influential moderate blogs and pundits, but maybe I'm just fooling myself there.

Where will Dodd fit in with all of this? Will he hire some of the Lamont people to help run his primary campaign on the net? The internet helped to transform Howard Dean from a nobody to a real contender--could it do the same for Dodd?

Source
Lightman, David. "Dodd Mines Granite State." Hartford Courant 17 September, 2006.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rosie O'Donnell has as much chance of becoming Pope as Chris Dodd has of becoming Presidente

Bobby McGee said...

You can bet that campaigns are going to have people with small digital cameras following their opponents around 24/7 after that Allen incident.

Anonymous said...

FYI...

THE Lamont internet guy is already hired for '08 and its not to Dodd.

Don Pesci said...

The question is not "Does Dodd have a chance of becoming the democrat nominee for president. He doesn't. The tantalizing question is: Why is he running?

What does he really want?

Possibly some position of note in the new (Hillary Clinton?) administration; more money in his campaign kitty; additional publicity so that he will not be left standing at the altar should someone make a proposal he cannot resist.

What makes Dodd run?

Dodd Supporter said...

Putting aside everything else for a moment, Dodd is likeable. When is the last time the Democrats selected a candidate for President who is likeable? Kerry, Gore, Dukakis - were not likeable in the eyes of the electorate. Kerry typified the elitist, arrogant Democrat; Gore was uptight and condescending; Dukakis was self-righteous and condescending. So history suggests the Democrats will pick Hillary who is the complete package when it comes to all these qualities. Meanwhile, the Republicans, following history, will pick someone who is likeable. And the Republicans will win again despite Iraq, energy, economic problems for all but the upper class, the failure to confront and find Bin Laden, etc. For Democrats, winning isn't the only thing, it's just something that seldom happens.